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Gbp-usd

GBPUSD | COULD THIS BE A GOOD SELL?Hey Everyone! I believe this pair has the potential to go down for the following reasons: - NFP came out positive for the US Dollar - Strong resistance zone 1.26500 - Psychological level at 1.2600 - Resistance meets the 100 moving average on the weekly I believe currently it would be wise to wait for that re-test of resistance before entering since the 1-4h & daily timeframes are in a fairly strong up-trend. I don't think it will last long, however for favorable entry now is not the time to enter, wait for a push to the resistance and then look for a bearish candlestick confirmation to enter, this would give you a great risk-reward and could potentially drop down to re-test the up-wards channel bottom. Good Luck!
Short
by FX-TradingLions
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are likely to be less supportive. It also considers that the Euro-Zone and Chinese outlooks are more favourable, especially given that gas prices have declined sharply. MUFG also expects the Fed will cut rates before the ECB while the Bank of Japan will tighten policy. Monetary policy will inevitably be a key aspect. Although the immediate debate is still surrounding the potential for further interest rate hikes, MUFG expects the debate will switch to the potential for a Federal Reserve policy reversal as the US economy deteriorates. According to the bank; “ The Fed will be cutting rates prior to the ECB. Inflation in Europe is stickier due to energy and food prices and the Fed will have much more scope to respond once economic conditions in the US weaken further from here. ” After an extended period of quantitative easing, MUFG also expects that the ECB quantitative tightening programme through bond sales will put upward pressure on longer-term yields and support the Euro. Global Growth Trends Still Favourable MUFG notes that previous forecasts of an extended UK recession have been revised away and the Euro-Zone has also been resilient. As far as China is concerned it adds; “ Recent data has disappointed, in particular on the manufacturing side of the economy, but pent-up domestic demand likely has further to run which will act as a source of global growth this year. ” Although market sentiment has been more cautious, it expects overall growth dynamics will not favour the US dollar as Asia rebounds. A related issue is the key area of energy prices. The jump in energy costs last year was a key reason why agencies such as the IMF and central banks were so negative surrounding the European economic outlook last year. Gas prices have, however, declined sharply with a slump from over 90% from the peak and close to 2-year lows. Gas storage levels are also at very high levels in historic terms ang MUFG expects storage levels will hit 100% in the summer. In this context, lower gas prices will improve the growth outlook and strengthen the trade outlook. The Bank of Japan has resisted tightening monetary policy, but MUFG notes that the economy is strengthening and inflation has increased. According to MUFG; “ we maintain that YCC has passed its sell-by-date and while it remains unclear whether price stability at 2% can be achieved, the BoJ will still move to widen the band or scrap it completely. ” The bank expects that the yen will strengthen sharply if the Bank of Japan lets yields increase which will drag the dollar lower. Negative Long-Term US Debt Dynamics The immediate focus is on the US debt ceiling and political brinkmanship ahead of early June when the US Treasury will run out of cash. These short-term dynamics are mixed for the US dollar with concerns over the economy, but potential defensive support if risk appetite deteriorates. MUFG focusses on the underlying debt dynamics and the potentially unsustainable situation. MUFG notes that the budget deficit in the first seven months of fiscal 2022/23 amounted to $928bn from $360bn the previous year. On a longer-term view, in considers the debt dynamics will be potentially negative for the US currency. De-Dollarization Hype Although MUFG considers that the de-dollarization rhetoric is rather more hype than substance, there is still the risk that long-term confidence in the dollar will decline with scope for some further increase in Euro and yuan central bank reserve holdings. MUFG also notes that there has been strong central bank gold buying and it expects this trend will continue. The bank also sees a risk that the US use of financial sanctions will discourage official players to hold reserves in the dollar due to fears over asset freezes. MUFG notes that there has been an extended period of Wall Street out-performance, but expects this trend will reverse and net capital flows will be less supportive for the US currency. It adds; “ We see a renewed drop in US equities as investors position more assertively for US recession. ” Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has posted a 32-year high and the German DAX index has hit a record high. It also sees scope for a sustained rebound in emerging-market equities after an extended period of under-performance. It adds; “ A reversal of the current period of deep EM undervaluation poses downside risks for the USD in the medium-term. ” Long-Term Peak, Dollar Overvalued MUFG notes that the dollar last year reached the highest level for over 20 years. It also notes that at the October peak the currency index was 2 standard deviations stronger than the average over the past 40 years. It adds; “ Similar extreme levels of USD overvaluation were last recorded in the early 2000’s and mid-1980’s and subsequently proved to be long-term bearish turning points for the USD. ” The bank also considers that the dollar is substantially overvalued, especially against the yen, increasing the likelihood of mean reversion.
Long
by thunderpips
2
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISIn a fresh look at the outlook for the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate, Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, draws attention to a potential slide for the sterling. "We see scope for cable to drop to 1.22 on a 3-month view," says Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank. This outlook indicates a drop in the value of the pound against the dollar by more than one per cent from its current position. The basis of this outlook, according to Foley, appears to be linked to market positioning and the capability of both the pound and the euro to handle impending disappointing economic data. The narrative surrounding these factors suggests a period of increased volatility for the pound, especially against its major counterparts. A surge in gilt yields and revived anxieties around UK's fiscal management have the potential to disrupt Pound Sterling (GBP)'s recent strength against the US dollar (USD), according to the analyst. This is in light of market expectations of additional Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes, which have failed to solidify GBP/USD's initial gains against major currencies. "Yesterday’s headlines that gilt yields had soared back towards the levels hit after the disastrous mini-budget last September was unsettling for investors and for the pound," says Foley. Further, despite market expectations of BoE rate hikes, "the Pound failed to hold initial gains against either the USD or the EUR," Foley adds. Q1 Performance and Market Positioning of the Sterling In terms of the sterling's performance, the currency had a strong showing in the first quarter. Data from this period suggested that the UK economy was outperforming expectations, earning the sterling the title of the best-performing G10 currency. Despite these positive indicators, Foley posits that the UK's growth outlook remains far from robust. "The Pound was the best performing G10 currency in Q1 as a stream of UK data suggested that the economy was performing better than expected," says Foley. However, Foley points out that, "The UK growth outlook is still far from strong." Market positioning towards the sterling has shown a shift in Q1. Speculators have moved from short GBP positions to net long GBP positions. However, recent data showing stronger-than-expected UK CPI inflation has reintroduced fears of a potential recession. BoE Policy and the Potential of a UK Recession Looking ahead, the BoE's policy decisions might bear heavily on the GBP/USD exchange rate. The possibility of the BoE raising the Bank rate to 5.0% or even higher is under consideration. This raises a serious question: would the BoE need to push the UK economy into recession to restore CPI inflation to its 2% target? "The risk that the BoE will have to raise the Bank rate to 5.0% or maybe higher has clearly increased," says Foley. She goes on to add, "The first is whether the Bank will have to push the UK economy into recession to restore CPI inflation to its 2% target." Impact of Brexit on the Pound Sterling The long-term implications of Brexit are also critical to understanding Pound Sterling's position. The UK's high inflation rate, which is the highest in the G7, alongside other fundamental weaknesses, have caused some to question whether these issues stem from the aftermath of Brexit. "The UK has the highest inflation rate in the G7, a soft growth outlook, a weak record on investment and productivity growth in recent years," Foley points out. She continues, "Inevitably, this has raised questions about how much of this is related to Brexit." Moreover, the sterling's decline to its pre-2016 Brexit referendum levels appears to have impacted price levels in recent years, with changes in post-Brexit trading arrangements possibly causing further economic turbulence. "GBP has never returned to its pre-2016 Brexit referendum levels which likely had had an impact of the price level in recent years," says Foley. UK’s Economic Sensitivities and Recession Risks The UK's particular economic sensitivities may also be playing a role in the inflation scenario. For instance, the UK's high dependency on gas and small agricultural sector could increase its sensitivity to energy crises and food supply shortages. "The UK has little gas storage and a high level of dependency on gas which would have raised its sensitivity to last year’s energy crisis. It also has a very small agricultural sector which has likely increased its sensitivity to supply shortages of food," Foley highlights. These factors, coupled with the risk of higher interest rates, brings the possibility of recession back into focus. According to Foley, speculators who took long GBP positions recently may have acted hastily, considering these lingering threats. "Either way the risk of higher interest rates means that recession risks are back in the sights, just as forecasters such as the IMF had indicated that the UK would avoid this scenario this year," Foley mentions. Comparatively, Kit Juckes, Global Head of FX Strategy at Société Générale Juckes expects depreciation of Pound Sterling (GBP) given the UK's high current account deficit and the global interest rate environment. On the other hand, Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank envisages Pound Sterling (GBP) potentially benefiting from higher yields in the short term, but warns of a probable depreciation due to the UK's fundamental weaknesses.
Long
by thunderpips
1
GBPUSD Below the 1D MA50, expecting more selling.The GBPUSD pair hit our upside target (1.2650) and May 27 2022 High on our last buy signal (see chart below) almost 2 months ago: The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having closed a candle below it yesterday for the first time since March 16. This is a bearish continuation signal that is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet again. Our target is at 1.2100. The 1D RSI can provide additional insight on a potential new buy entry at the bottom. If however the price closes above the 1D MA50 instead on two straight 1D candles at least, then hedge the position with a buy targeting the June 01 2021 Lower Highs again. If the pair closes a 1D candle above that level, it will be the first time to do so in years, and will be a major buy signal. In that case we will buy and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 1.2850. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
10
GBPUSD Downside PotentialHey traders! For Day 12/100, we're looking at GBPUSD downside risks. On the technicals side: - Overall bearish trend - Created strong resistance + 62% retracement - Break of HH-HL retracement structure - Break below 1.244 support - Now retesting that previous support as resistance - We're looking to take sells anytime now if it selling signals on H4 and H1 persist On fundamentals side: - We have a risk of CPI disappointment on UK side - Couple of institutions expecting a cooler print than expected - If that's the case, then aggressive market pricing of next rate hike may be in danger - USD upside risk of positive rhetoric from debt-ceiling negotiations
Short
by rob_WRLD_
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange forecasters at ING expect that the US Dollar can maintain a firm tone in the short term. It does, however, expect notable deterioration over the second half of the year which will trigger rate cuts. The bank expects that yield spreads will move against the US Dollar with the Bank of England resisting any rate cuts. The bank expects that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.33 at the end of 2023. US Economy to Deteriorate ING considers that the dollar could hold a firm tone in the short term, especially with the Fed maintaining a hawkish tone, but it questions whether this stance is sustainable. According to ING; We argue that the sustainability of this kind of dollar trend strongly relies on hard data confirming price pressure remain elevated and the US economic outlook stable.” It adds; “This may be a story for the near-term, where the dollar can still find some support, but we see the second half of the year as the period where evidence of sharply slowing US economic activity will force large cuts by the Fed and cause a rapid dollar depreciation.” ING adds; “Our team forecasts that they are enough to curtail the tightening cycle and prompt 100bp of easing in the fourth quarter.” Yield Spreads will Underpin Pound Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate ING is still cautious over the Pound outlook, especially as it considers that market expectations surrounding Bank of England interest rates are too high. Overall, ING expects that BoE rates have peaked at 4.50% and an eventual reassessment of BoE expectations will be an important headwind for the Pound. Nevertheless, the bank expects that the BoE will resist rate cuts until at least the second quarter of 2024. In this context, it expects that BoE rates will be 25 basis points above US Fed Funds rates by the end of 2023 and the differential will widen by 125 basis points by the end of the first quarter of 2023. ING expects widening rate differentials will be crucial for currency markets with the dollar losing ground and GBP/USD heading above 1.30. JP Morgan has dropped its negative dollar bias at this stage and does not expect that the US currency will lose traction later in the year. It adds; “Global growth is shifting at the margins towards a less-bearish USD backdrop. In this context, it adds; “Growth models have neutralized USD shorts.” JP Morgan forecasts that the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will decline to 1.17 at the end of 2023.
Long
by thunderpips
3
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange forecasters at ING expect that the US Dollar can maintain a firm tone in the short term. It does, however, expect notable deterioration over the second half of the year which will trigger rate cuts. The bank expects that yield spreads will move against the US Dollar with the Bank of England resisting any rate cuts. The bank expects that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.33 at the end of 2023. US Economy to Deteriorate ING considers that the dollar could hold a firm tone in the short term, especially with the Fed maintaining a hawkish tone, but it questions whether this stance is sustainable. According to ING; We argue that the sustainability of this kind of dollar trend strongly relies on hard data confirming price pressure remain elevated and the US economic outlook stable.” It adds; “This may be a story for the near-term, where the dollar can still find some support, but we see the second half of the year as the period where evidence of sharply slowing US economic activity will force large cuts by the Fed and cause a rapid dollar depreciation.” ING adds; “Our team forecasts that they are enough to curtail the tightening cycle and prompt 100bp of easing in the fourth quarter.” Yield Spreads will Underpin Pound Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate ING is still cautious over the Pound outlook, especially as it considers that market expectations surrounding Bank of England interest rates are too high. Overall, ING expects that BoE rates have peaked at 4.50% and an eventual reassessment of BoE expectations will be an important headwind for the Pound. Nevertheless, the bank expects that the BoE will resist rate cuts until at least the second quarter of 2024. In this context, it expects that BoE rates will be 25 basis points above US Fed Funds rates by the end of 2023 and the differential will widen by 125 basis points by the end of the first quarter of 2023. ING expects widening rate differentials will be crucial for currency markets with the dollar losing ground and GBP/USD heading above 1.30. JP Morgan has dropped its negative dollar bias at this stage and does not expect that the US currency will lose traction later in the year. It adds; “Global growth is shifting at the margins towards a less-bearish USD backdrop. In this context, it adds; “Growth models have neutralized USD shorts.” JP Morgan forecasts that the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will decline to 1.17 at the end of 2023.
Long
by thunderpips
6
Gbpusd at a interesting levelWatching for more clues to see if i want to long GU.watch..it might jus break lower as well. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate ended the weekly session on a high, quoted at 1.24453 as currency markets closed. EUR/USD had also risen on Friday, bolstered by weakness in the US Dollar, sparked by Fed Chair Powell's US banking sector comments, profit-taking and a correction. The Pound Sterling had been relatively resilient towards the end of the week but struggled to make any significant headway on the major crosses while US currency moves dominated global currency moves. The US Dollar posted notable gains and the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted steady losses to fresh 3-week lows just below the 1.2400 level. A rally attempt faltered quickly on Friday with GBP/USD held close to 1.2400. Dollar Secures Further Gains ING noted; “GBP/USD is being driven almost entirely by the dollar leg at this stage, with comments by some Bank of England officials yesterday not having a sizeable FX impact.” The US Dollar (USD) exchange rates were able to make further headway on Thursday with three significant catalysts. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index recovered to -10.4 for May from -31.3 the previous month and stronger than consensus forecasts of -19.8, although new orders continued to contract. Inflation readings were mixed with a slightly faster rate of increases for prices paid while prices received edged lower at a faster rate. Companies are less optimistic over the outlook while pricing pressure are expected to be stronger. Markets noted the risk of sticky inflation pressures. US Initial jobless claims declined to 242,000 in the latest week from 264,000 previously and significantly below consensus forecasts of 254,000 while continuing claims were marginally lower at 1.80mn from 1.81mn previously. The data overall eased concerns surrounding a weaker economy. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that the central bank still has work to do to achieve price stability and she is concerned whether inflation is falling fast enough. She recognises the risk of tightening too far or too fast, but added that she considers the data at this time does not support skipping a rate hike at the June meeting. Although the data in coming weeks could show it is appropriate to pause, the evidence is not there yet. There was a repricing of interest rate expectations with Fed Funds rate futures indicating close to a 40% chance that there would be a further rate hike in June. Markets were also optimistic that the US would reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling. The Treasury will issue a very high volume of bonds if a deal is reached and US yields continued to move higher. Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie commented; "It's pretty clear that some people were shorting the dollar as a hedge in anticipation of a crisis, but now with all the signals that we will find a resolution in the next few days, people are unwinding these positions so the dollar is strengthening." ING added; “It's hard to buck the dollar's bullish momentum now, as we also think some substantial squeezing of short USD positions can be behind the move.” According to MUFG; “if the US rates market continues to price a greater probability of a June hike, then further dollar gains over the short-term are likely.” Pound Sterling Unmoved by 15-Month High in UK Consumer Confidence The UK GfK consumer confidence index improved to –27 for May from –30 the previous month. This was in line with consensus forecasts and the strongest reading for 15 months. Consumers overall were more confident over personal finances and the wider economic outlook and all major sub-indices improved on the month. Joe Staton, GfK's client strategy director commented; "The overall trajectory this year is positive and might reflect a stronger underlying financial picture across the UK than many would think." He still noted an element of caution; "But everybody must hold on tight as it could still be a rocky ride out of these tough times." There are suspicions that the more positive UK outlook has been priced in. According to UoB; “GBP is likely to weaken further; a clear break of 1.2390 will suggest it could drop to 1.2350, as low as 1.2300.”
Long
by thunderpips
GBPUSD Sell Forecast | BOC Gov Macklem Speaks| 18th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop BOC Gov Macklem Spoke yesterday Higher-than-expected inflation erodes purchasing power Uncertainty in the outlook for inflation creates instability and affect the currency's value. External factors such as Russia's war on Ukraine and disruptions in food prices put pressure on the GBP. Technical Confluences Support at 1.24500 Next support at 1.23500 Idea With the fundamentals weaking the GBP, I'm expecting price to break the support at 1.24500, before heading towards the next support at 1.23500 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
✨ NEW: GBPUSD ✨ Curve Analysis (8D) ✨SLO @ 141.75 ⏳ TP3 @ 1.3970 TP2 @ 1.3570 TP1 @ 1.2840 BSO @ 1.2540 📈 BLO @ 1.2455 📈 Technically, the analysis for GBPUSD is flat. This currency pair is currently trading at $1.2485, which is still below the Anchor of May 27, 2022 which is @ 1.2667. This suggests that the trend is bearish. However, the bulls broke the Anchor on Cinco De Mayo reaching $1.2680, which is a strong indication of buying opportunities brewing. The RSI indicator is currently at 45 — The neutral zone. — This suggests that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD indicator — The neutral zone — The signal line crossing above the MACD line — This suggests that the trend could be about to change to bullish. Here are some of the factors that has and could affect the GBPUSD in the near future: * The UK's interest rate decision on May 19th. * The US's non-farm payrolls report on May 6th. * The US's inflation report on May 11th. * The UK's GDP report on May 12th. Please note that this is not financial advice. You should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
2
GBPUSD - Short Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME:6B1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
GBPUSD Sell Forecast | 16th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The Claimant Count Change increased from 26.5K to 46.7K This shows that the number of unemployed people has increased, indicating the weakening economic health Technical Confluences Support at 1.24500 Idea With the fundamentals weaking the GBP, I'm expecting price to head towards the support at 1.24500 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab