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Gbp-usd

GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns yet. Expectations are for the unemployment rate in the three months to March to hold steady at 3.8%, employment change to remain at 160k from 169k and headline earnings growth to also remain steady at 5.8% from 5.9%, whilst the ex-bonus metric is seen firming up to 6.8% from 6.6%. Firmer data could bring the expectation for a June rate hike from Bank of England higher from a 69% probability for now and bring the focus also on next CPI release on May 24. EURGBP remains on the verge of a breakout on the downside after trading in a range since the start of the year.
Long
by thunderpips
Potential reversal Outlook on GBPUSD: last week we managed to catch the drop of the pair two times exceeding 150 points. looking at the pair we se that it has not managed to break above the resistance line. Now we see a reversal pattern rebounding off a key supply zone. Our view is still bearish but we will wait further confirmation before entering any trade. If price closes below 1.26238 , we will look to enter a short position targeting 1.256. Closing below it could take us to test the demand area between 1.24373 and 1.24489.
by lacasafxfamily
GBPUSD Plummets after 12month HighAfter briefly breaking the 12-month high from May 2022 of 1.26670 this week, a wave of selling came in amid a big news week. The Bank of England (BoE) jacked up the UK Bank Rate to 4.5%, marking the 12th hike in a row. Despite two dissenting votes, the committee expects more tightening if price pressures persist. This could mean the rate peaking around 4.75% by the end of 2023. BoE expects the UK's inflation to drop sharply from April, but that they are ‘continuing to address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic price and wage setting, as represented by the upward skew in the projected distribution for CPI inflation.’ Meanwhile, BoE's forecast for UK growth is cautiously upbeat, predicting flat growth in the first half of the year and a slight uptick after that. Over in the States, the US Dollar gained strength headed into the weekend as investors look for safety amid uncertainty. This comes after a regional US bank, PacWest, reported a substantial 10% deposit drop and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report came in weak. From a technical perspective, tapping new highs briefly but failing to hold, leading to a sharp sell-off and retracing 2 weeks worth of gains in 2 days could signal a significant shift for the Cable ahead. We've seen a clean downside channel break, and - while a retracement seems likely after such volatile selling into the weekend - lower highs and lower lows could be the blueprint for the days and weeks ahead.
Short
by HayeTrading
2
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISPound Sterling briefly dipped after the GDP data on Friday, but still found support on dips with GBP/USD around 1.2530 and GBP/EUR at 1.1475. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 1.2640 in an immediate response to the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. There was, however, a notable reversal later in the session as risk appetite deteriorated and the dollar regained territory. In this environment, GBP/USD posted sharp losses to lows at 1.2500. Risk conditions will remain an important element. Carl Hammer, chief strategist at SEB commented; "We are entering a more defensive state generally." Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, expects choppy trading rather than sustained dollar depreciation. He added; "We're not convinced that this is a sustainable trend yet. We'll have periods when the dollar does well and the dollar does badly." Mixed GDP data, UK Lags in Global Terms The latest GDP data recorded a 0.3% decline for March compared with expectations of no change and following no change in February. The first quarter, however, recorded 0.1% growth and in line with expectations which means that the UK has again avoided a technical recession. Services declined 0.5% for March after a 0.1% retreat in February with output in consumer-facing services dipping 0.8% on the month. Production output increased 0.7%for the month with 0.2% growth in construction output. According to Darren Morgan from the ONS; “The fall in March was driven by widespread decreases across the services sector. Despite the launch of new number plates, cars sales were low by historic standards – continuing the trend seen since the start of the pandemic – with warehousing, distribution and retail also having a poor month.” He added; “These falls were partially offset by a strong month for manufacturing as well as growth in gas production and distribution and also in construction.” The ONS estimated that GDP was 0.5% below the pre-pandemic peak and the worst performance within the G10 area. Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs noted that the UK is “still at the bottom of the G7 league table”. Nevertheless, he added; “at least the magnitude of the underperformance is not increasing relative to other countries in Europe, which have faced a similarly enormous energy price shock.” RSM UK economist Thomas Pugh, commented; “The 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 means the UK has probably avoided a recession altogether this year.” Nevertheless, he added; “The big picture is that the economy is still 0.5% below its pre-pandemic level and is unlikely to regain that level until the end of the year at the earliest.” According to Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor; “Stubbornly high inflation, negative real wage growth and general cost of living pressures are weighing on the consumer, and in turn the services industry which is typically a key growth engine for the UK economy.” Tom Stevenson, personal investing director at Fidelity International also pointed to underlying weakness; "With the key services side of the economy continuing to slow in the face of higher borrowing costs and rising prices, it still feels like we’re walking through treacle." He added; "With inflation still in double digits, it feels depressingly like a re-run of 1970s stagflation." KPMG economist Yael Selfin also expressed caution; "While recession is probably no longer on the cards, vulnerabilities resulting from higher borrowing costs and tighter credit are likely to dampen business and household activity this year." Ben Jones, CBI lead economist Ben Jones was slightly more positive; “The UK economy is proving more resilient than widely expected and it looks increasingly likely that the UK will avoid a recession this year. Underlying momentum appears to be firming, with our surveys showing growth expectations for the quarter ahead creeping back into positive territory for the first time in a year. ING summarised the situation; “Strip out all of the volatility though, and the economy seems to be reasonably stagnant.” BoE Debate will Continue The Bank of England increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% at the latest policy meeting which was in line with consensus forecasts. The 7-2 vote for the move was also expected as Tenreyro and Dhingra again voted against any rate hike. The bank now expects positive GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 with no quarters of negative growth. Overall, growth forecasts were revised higher by the largest extent since the bank gained independence in 1997. The bank also raised inflation forecasts with an important impact from the strong increase in food prices. The CPI inflation rate is now forecast at close to 5.0% at the end of 2023 from 4.0% previously. According to ING; While we don’t exclude one final June hike, our base case is that we have reached the peak of the BoE tightening cycle as inflation will start to rapidly decelerate this year.” ING added; “For now, however, there aren’t many convincing reasons to call for GBP underperformance against its main peers in the near term.” Commerzbank considers that expectations are liable to fluctuate; “In the end future data will be decisive for the BoE’s next rate decision though, in addition to the April inflation data the May data will also be published.” It added; “If a swift fall were to become obvious here, as the BoE expects, it is likely to refrain from further rate hikes and that would put pressure on Sterling. However, the risk that the BoE will do more has certainly increased since yesterday.” According to Credit Agricole; “The comments suggested that the BoE outlook whilst not as dire as in February has not improved significantly from the stagflationary scenario that the MPC has been predicting since May 2022.” UoB expects further GBP/USD losses; “The burst in downward momentum indicates that the downside risk is building quickly. From here, we expect GBP to drop to 1.2445; if it can break below this major support level, it could trigger a rapid decline to 1.2390.”
Long
by thunderpips
GBP/USD -11/5/2023-• Despite hawkish message delivered by the BOE today, recent USD strength is putting pressure on the pound and all the majors • We have a couple of Dojis in the recent past sessions which showed a slowing bullish momentum followed by a big bearish candlestick today • Bears are testing the 20 SMA which has been supporting the prices for a while • While there is a weakness prevailing, longer term trend is still bullish as long as the Pound is trading above the ascending trend line • One critical support level is very important for the bulls to defend which is in the mid 1.24s (1.2450-1.2460) which is the previous December 2022 - January 2023 resistance and the trend line support • Bears will do their best to secure several daily closes below the 20 SMA and the supporting trend line • From a risk reward perspective, bulls might wait for a re-test of the trend line before getting in the market again Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅ Here to answer all your questions, Good luck
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
GBPUSD Potential bullish reversal coming?Fundamental Analysis GBP/USD market movers The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, recently spoke about how the inflation readings for April are expected to show a significant drop as the effects of higher fuel and food prices from last year are no longer in the equation. Although there are signs that inflation is easing, Bailey also mentioned that the secondary effects of high inflation are still present and that there are potential risks for inflation in the future. Bank of England's recent policy meeting went as expected with no surprises. The BoE decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, which was the same decision made at the previous meeting. This decision was voted on by a 7-2 majority. In the UK, inflation is currently at 10.1%, which is more than double the 4.9% reading in the US. The core inflation rates in both countries are closer, with the UK at 6.2% and the US at 5.5%. However, this suggests that the UK will likely continue to raise interest rates after the Federal Reserve (Fed) has stopped, which may benefit the Pound Sterling over the US Dollar as global investors tend to prefer currencies with higher interest rates to invest their money. Looking at the US Dollar and the potential risks associated with the US debt ceiling default. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned that a failure to raise the debt ceiling could result in an "economic and financial catastrophe." This could have an impact on the US Dollar moving forward. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, with both the annual headline and core figures coming in slightly below expectations. Additionally, the US Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected, with 264K new first-time unemployment claims filed. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, from our point of view, GBP/USD remains in a long-term uptrend, advantaging long over short holders even if price was to break below the TL, which would means that the current correction will be longer and deeper before breaking the Highs of May 2022, please see chart analysis above for details.
Long
by financialflagship
GBP is BossBullish Setup The next HH HL is the sinal of the Bullish Trend start Here’s the 4hr Elliott wave Chart from the 4/14/2022 New York update. In which, the rally to 1.6866 high ended 5 waves from the 2/10/2023 low in wave (1) & made a pullback in wave (2). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three correction where wave W ended at 1.6579 low. Then a bounce to 1.6835 high-ended wave X & started the next leg lower in wave Y towards 1.6547-1.6369 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum. GBP Funamentals The GBP has experienced a notable rally in recent weeks, positioning it as the top-performing currency among the G10 nations this year. The unexpected success story of the GBP, now dubbed the "King of G10 FX," can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the rebound can be attributed to a series of positive UK data releases in recent months, which were influenced by the significant decline in European energy prices and subsequent improvements in commodity terms of trade. Additionally, the persistent UK inflation, combined with reduced post-Brexit tensions between the UK and the EU, as well as diminished risks of another independence referendum, have enhanced the attractiveness of GBP-denominated assets. Asia overnight The sentiment was mixed during Asian trading as investors grappled with concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling. However, their optimism was boosted by China's better-than-expected exports data. Fig1: China headline news from 09/05/2023 There were also reports from newswires suggesting that Chinese authorities might announce additional measures to bolster the economy. Currently, Asian markets were trading with a mixed performance, while S&P500 futures showed a slight decline. In the G10 foreign exchange market, trading remained within narrow ranges, with the Norwegian krone (NOK) and Euro (EUR) underperforming, while the US dollar (USD) and Japanese yen (JPY) outperformed. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), stated that the central bank would discontinue its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy once inflation consistently reaches 2%. However, this statement didn't come as a surprise and maintained investors' view of the new BoJ Governor as dovish. In March, Japan's wage growth continued to be lacklustre, with real wages experiencing a YoY decline of -2.9%. This data is unlikely to prompt any policy changes by the BoJ. USD: Debt ceiling, regional banks, and the Fed The short-term outlook for the USD is heavily influenced by the ongoing drama surrounding the US debt ceiling in Congress and the outlook for regional banks in the United States. Market concerns regarding the prospects of regional lenders are unlikely to ease following the recent release of the Senior Loan Officers Survey. Additionally, the political deadlock over the US debt ceiling is expected to continue negatively impacting the USD. During the day, foreign exchange (FX) investors will closely monitor the high-level meeting between President Joe Biden and US congressional leaders, which aims to resolve the impasse over the debt ceiling. In terms of its impact on the FX market, any signs of progress between Democrats and Republicans towards a potential bipartisan solution, such as a short-term extension of the debt ceiling, could help the USD regain strength across the board. Conversely, indications that the political impasse has worsened may dampen the appeal of USD-denominated assets.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
will the cable trade higher when BoE increases rates .. 1.30000?gbpusd , great british pound / u.s. dollar (the cable) economic outlook : on May 11 2023 the BoE is meeting and it is expected that they will hike the interest rates and even though on May 3 the Fed are also expected to lift rates there is a interest rate differential as the Fed are also planning to pause raising interest rates which could signal the british pound outperforming the u.s dollar. more positive for the sterling as, the united kingdom government is said to have borrowed less that expected which means there will be a fiscal stimulus that could add more bullish momentum on the cable. technicals : price has been trading is consolidation phase with the psychological low of the sideways range @ 1.19000 and the high @ 1.24500. bullish momentum is in control of price as price is respecting and holding bullish trendline by trading above it and is trading above the high of the consolidation phase @ 1.24500. i have targets at weekly supply level of proximal price @ 1.27800 but overrall bullish targets @ 1.30000 supply and demand FX:GBPJPY put together by : Pako Phutietsile presented by : @currencynerd courtesy of : @TradingView
Long
by currencynerd
2
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAn extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in Q4-2023. We forecast the trade-weighted dollar to soften 3% over the balance of 2023, and by a further 5% in 2024.
Long
by thunderpips