GBP/USD Eyes Potential Rebound from 1.2660 Support AreaGBP/USD closed in negative territory on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The pair appears to find support on Friday around the 1.2660 area, a key level that could mark the beginning of a bullish rebound. Several technical indicators suggest a potential upside move from this support zone.
The 1.2660 support area has emerged as a critical level where the pair seems to stabilize after recent declines. Notably, there are a couple of divergences on both the RSI and Stochastic indicators, indicating potential bullish momentum. Divergences in these indicators often signal that the prevailing trend may be weakening, paving the way for a reversal.
From a technical perspective, the observed divergences in the RSI and Stochastic indicators at the 1.2660 level strengthen the case for a rebound. These indicators measure momentum and oscillation, respectively, and their divergences suggest that the selling pressure might be easing, making room for a potential upward movement.
Given these technical signals, we are looking for a rebound from the 1.2660 support zone, with a potential bullish impulse in the near term. Traders should monitor the price action closely at this level for confirmation of a reversal. A sustained move above this support could trigger further gains, potentially resuming the pair's previous uptrend.
In conclusion, while GBP/USD has faced recent selling pressure, the technical outlook at the 1.2660 support area suggests a possible bullish rebound. The divergences on the RSI and Stochastic indicators reinforce this view, providing a positive setup for traders looking for an upside move. As the market stabilizes, attention will be on whether the pair can leverage this support for a renewed bullish impulse.
GBP
Buy GBP/CAD Double BottomThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Double Bottom Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Double Bottom After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.7433.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.7520
2nd Resistance – 1.7573
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.7395. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
Potential bullish rise?GBP/USD has reacted off a support level which is a pullback support and could rise to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2664
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.2630
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.2762
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bracing for UK Inflation & BOE decision In the UK, inflation data expected tomorrow is projected to fall to 2% in May, down from 2.3% in April. This would mark the first time since April 2021 that inflation has hit the Bank of England’s 2% target. However, a positive inflation report is unlikely to result in a rate cut at Thursday’s meeting, especially with an election on July 4th. Markets are pricing in an initial rate cut for August.
Technically, the pound/dollar has been trading sideways recently. With GBP/USD breaking below 1.2700, the first support level is at 1.2667, the May 24 low. For any more downside, the next target could be the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2643, followed by 1.2600.
Limiting the downside could be the recently released US retail sales data. US retail sales grew by a modest 0.1% in May, below the expected 0.2% gain. Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Additionally, April retail sales were revised down from flat to a 0.2% decline.
GBP/USD Nears Monthly Low as Fed Maintain Interest Rate FirmnessThe Pound Sterling (GBP) continued its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive trading day on Monday. The GBP/USD pair is currently hovering near its monthly low, around 1.2660, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance on interest rates maintains the US Dollar's strength.
Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook
The Fed's current position is to reduce interest rates only once this year. However, financial markets are speculating that the Fed might implement two rate cuts and begin unwinding its restrictive policy framework starting from the September meeting, with potential subsequent cuts in November or December. This speculation is driven by the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May, which have increased expectations for early rate cuts.
Impact on GBP/USD
The Fed’s firm stance on maintaining higher interest rates supports the US Dollar's appeal, exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Despite the market's expectations for rate cuts, the immediate outlook for the USD remains strong, making it difficult for the GBP to gain ground.
Technical Analysis
Divergence and Support Levels
Despite the bearish trend, technical analysis reveals that the GBP/USD pair is showing a divergence on the H4 timeframe. Divergence occurs when the price movement contradicts the signal from technical indicators, often suggesting a potential reversal or slowdown in the current trend.
The current price action is also situated in a demand area of support, which aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These Fibonacci levels are commonly used to identify potential support and resistance zones where price reversals might occur.
Trading Strategy
Given the technical setup, we have identified a range area where the price is currently trading. Although the pair has seen a significant drop, the divergence and support confluence suggest a potential for a reversal or at least a temporary stabilization.
To manage risk effectively, a stop loss is placed just below the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci support levels. This ensures that if the price breaks through these key support areas, it signals a clear change in the main trend, and the trade can be exited with minimal losses.
GBPJPY H4 - Sell SignalGBPJPY H4
We have pinned into our first sell zone here on GBPJPY. 200.800 price has been wicked on the H4 and we have the London volume to see where this may now take us. Would like to see this zone hold and rejections form from this price.
If resistance does break, we have the yearly high sell zone as a second approach (final attempt). Lets see what unfolds.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/CAD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.75140
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.75979
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.73398
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/CHF is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.13675
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with he 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.14435
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.12186
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURGBP is approaching a significant resistanceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.84900 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.84900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD (Technical and fundamental ) Bearish attentionTechnical Analysis of GBP/USD
The price already dropped after stabilizing under 1.2693, and still running to get 1.2628.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 1.2695, it is expected to drop to 1.2627. A further decline below this level could see the price reach 1.2572.
Bullish Scenario:
To shift to a bullish trend, the price must reverse and stabilize above 1.2700, potentially targeting 1.2783.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Price: 1.2700
- Support Levels: 1.2627, 1.2572, 1.2541
- Resistance Levels: 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2898
Today's Expected Movement Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between 1.2693 and 1.2627.
Tendency: Bearish trend
In summary, maintaining a position below 1.2695 supports a bearish outlook, with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, trading above 1.2700 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels.
Fundamental Analysis: US Dollar Gains Amid Key Data Releases and Fed Appearances
US Dollar Rises Early Monday:
The US dollar strengthened against its major trading partners early Monday, except for a slight decline versus the euro. This movement comes ahead of a busy week filled with significant data releases and appearances by Federal Reserve officials.
Monday's Focus:
- Empire State Survey: The week begins with the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State survey for June at 8:30 am ET, providing the first insight into manufacturing conditions for the month.
- Fed Speakers: New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 12:00 pm ET, followed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker at 1:00 pm ET, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook at 9:00 pm ET.
Tuesday's Highlights:
- Key Data Releases: Retail sales and industrial production data.
- Fed Appearances: Six scheduled appearances by Federal Reserve officials.
Wednesday's Schedule:
- Juneteenth Holiday: A lighter day with only weekly mortgage applications data and the National Association of Home Builders' sentiment data.
Thursday's Highlights:
- Jobless Claims and Housing Data: Weekly jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index.
Friday's Highlights:
- Economic Indicators: Flash data releases.
In summary, the US dollar's movement this week will be closely influenced by retail sales, industrial production data, and various Federal Reserve officials' speeches, setting the stage for significant market activity.
EURGBP to find sellers at market?EURGBP - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bearish.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8455.
We look to Sell at 0.8455 (stop at 0.8473)
Our profit targets will be 0.8410 and 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8455 / 0.8470 / 0.8485
Support: 0.8425 / 0.8410 / 0.8395
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2635
1st Resistance: 1.2762
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPJPY is approaching the uptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPJPY for a buying opportunity around 198.600 zone, GBPJPY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 198.600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBP/USD Maintains Bearish Trend Below Key Resistance LevelsTechnical Analysis of GBP/USD
The price has stabilized in the bearish zone, remaining below 1.2695. Consequently, the target is set at 1.2628.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 1.2695, it is expected to drop to 1.2627. A further decline below this level could see the price reach 1.2572.
Bullish Scenario:
To shift to a bullish trend, the price must reverse and stabilize above 1.2700, potentially targeting 1.2783.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Price: 1.2700
- Support Levels: 1.2627, 1.2572, 1.2541
- Resistance Levels: 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2898
Today's Expected Movement Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between 1.2693 and 1.2627.
Tendency: Bearish trend
In summary, maintaining a position below 1.2695 supports a bearish outlook, with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, trading above 1.2700 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels.
Buy GBPAUD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.9250.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.9333
2nd Resistance – 1.9380
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.9180. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
ECB just cut... Is it BOE’s turn next week? The European Central Bank (ECB) initiated its cutting cycle last week on June 6. Expectations are that ECB policymakers are in no hurry to follow this first cut with a second one.
Next week, we will see how much of a hurry the Bank of England (BOE) is to follow the ECB.
A Reuters poll of 65 economists indicates the BOE is likely to wait until August to cut interest rates. The consensus had previously settled on a cut on June 20, so bear that in mind when taking their forecasts into account.
UK inflation eased to 2.3% in April, close to the central bank's 2.0% target, from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022. So why wouldn't the BOE cut rates this month? Well, wage and services inflation, both watched closely by the BoE, are still around 6%. The question that arises is how much the BOE weighs inflation in this sub-section of the economy against overall inflation.
On the GBP/USD chart, after reaching a three-month high, buyers were unable to keep the pair above 1,2800 to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.2894. The next support level is possibly 1.2700.
GU pulling back for the Swing Drop?Looking at price action it looks like its setting up for a nice sell for NY session. It is currently London session, the VP is thin, the Delta is negative and price is still pushing up. Looking for it to test a FVG above the Asian range before considering if the sell is ready. Cautiously buying for now as this is a set up leading into a sell.
Bearish drop?GBP/NZD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2.07254
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2.08612
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 2.06216
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GBP/AUD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.92600
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.93471
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.91575
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?GBP/USD is currently at a support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.27953
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.27044
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.28933
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPNZD 1D MA50 rejection. Sell Signal.The GBPNZD pair recently made a Bearish Break-out as it broke below the Channel Up and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), introducing a new Channel Down pattern. On Monday we saw the latest rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding as Resistance since May 03.
As long as it holds, we expect the new Bearish Leg to start. The previous one stopped after a -2.75% decline, which currently gives a price tag at a little below 2.0300. However we will use a more modest Target, aiming at 2.04000 (a little above Support 2).
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