GBP/AUD Trade Setup – Bullish Flag Breakout in PlayGBPAUD has formed a clean bullish flag structure after a significant impulsive move upward. Following the correction, we’re now testing breakout levels with clear Fibonacci confluence and bullish structure support around 2.0560. I'm anticipating a push toward the next resistance levels if buyers defend this trendline.
🔎 Technical Highlights (My View):
Bullish Flag Pattern: The corrective flag has broken to the upside and is being retested. This suggests a possible continuation of the bullish trend.
Fibonacci Support: Price bounced near the 23.6% retracement of the previous bullish leg, which acts as a minor but effective support in trending moves.
Bullish Trendline Holding: The ascending trendline from the July lows continues to act as dynamic support. This shows sustained buyer interest.
Target Zones:
TP1: 2.0720 – aligns with 50% retracement and recent structure.
TP2: 2.0827 – aligns with 78.6% retracement and past resistance.
SL: Below 2.0450 to invalidate the setup.
🏦 Fundamental Context:
GBP Strength: The Bank of England remains more hawkish than the RBA. UK inflation data remains sticky, and traders are still pricing in the potential for another hike if services inflation remains elevated.
AUD Weakness: AUD is under pressure due to soft labor market data and declining commodity demand from China. RBA minutes also struck a cautious tone, which weighs on the Aussie.
China Risk: AUD is sensitive to Chinese sentiment. Current trade and tariff tensions are adding indirect bearish pressure to the AUD.
⚠️ Risks to My Setup:
If Aussie labor or CPI data surprises to the upside, AUD could regain strength.
UK economic data deterioration (e.g., services PMI, wage inflation) could weaken GBP.
Break below 2.0450 would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest potential range continuation.
📅 Upcoming Catalysts to Watch:
UK Retail Sales – A strong print supports GBP continuation.
AU CPI (Trimmed Mean) – Any upside surprise could limit AUD downside.
China Industrial & Services PMI (if released soon) – indirect AUD mover.
⚖️ Summary – Bias & Trade Logic
I’m currently bullish GBP/AUD, expecting a continuation of the prior uptrend now that price has broken and retested the flag structure. Fundamentally, GBP is supported by relatively hawkish BoE expectations, while AUD remains pressured by RBA caution and China-linked macro weakness. My bias stays bullish as long as the trendline holds and Aussie data doesn’t surprise significantly.
