GBPAUD Buy opportunity and reversal levelsThe GBPAUD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since March 15. At the moment the price is on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the pattern, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI on the 30.000 oversold level.
That should be considered a short-term opportunity by itself towards the top of the Channel. But even from a longer-term perspective, the last time we had those exact same set of parameters take place was during the Channel Down that started on June 2020. As you see that pattern also made a -6% Lower Low from its last High and once the 1D RSI hit the 30.000 oversold level, the price rebounded, gradually above the 1D MA50 and then the 1D MA200 to break above the Channel and eventually make a top on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, as long as the current Channel Down is intact, we expect a new multi-month rally towards the 1.5 Fib which is at 1.85500. Since the bearish trend is that strong, especially today, it would be best to take that trade upon confirmation, after the price closes above the 1D MA50.
Confirmation is needed because in the event of a break below the Channel's bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), we can see the price target the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 1.613520.
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Gbpaudsignals
GBPAUD Strong buy on a monthly basisThe GBPAUD pair has started the week on a strong note, with the current 1W candle being the longest green (so far) since September 21 2020. That shows incredible buying sentiment especially following a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI being on Higher Lows since April 04 2022. When the price is on Lower Lows, as is the case now, this is a Bullish Divergence potentially indicating a trend shift upwards.
We saw the very same set of parameters align back in the July - December 2020 sequence. After a Support re-test, the price started a strong long-term uptrend above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If you are on this for the long-term, there are few better levels to buy and target the 1.5 Fib at 1.8340.
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GBPAUD possible sell area!!GBPAUD ( 4H ) is in a long-term bearish trend. We have seen strong rejection from the monthly resistance. currently on the 4H price has just broken local support and heading towards the monthly support zone. As a trend continuation, GBPAUD is likely to drop further as the local support has been tested as resistance.
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GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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GBP/AUD Sell Entry 2K pips Chart 1/3Sell Limit entry: 1.75500
Stop loss order: 1.76300
Take profit order: 1.73300
*HEDGE(to minimize losses)-simultaneously OPEN a BUY STOP/LIMT order w/ SAME LOT SIZE as initial trade.
Hedge position levels:
Buy limit/stop: 1.75500
Take Profit: 1.76300 ( T/P = S/L from Initial Trade )
Stop loss: 1.75250 ( S/L = 0-250 pips below Initial Trade Entry level )
*800 pip hedging order.
Potential Gains: 2K-2.2K pips
Potential Loss: 0-250 pips
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.75/1.00
Avg. Holding Period: 5-7 days
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Use the information to assist you with your trading journey. This analysis is just my idea and doesn't guarantee any gains/loss. Leave a comment and follow me to stay up to date on trade opportunities. Safe trading.
When finished will post position opportunities for 1hr and 15min timeframes.
GBPAUD Trading according to planThere isn't much to update on the GBPAUD pair, as since our last analysis on April 21, the price has been following our plan in a very precise way:
As you see, the similarities with the July - October 2020 sequence have paid off and the price action continues to follow that pattern. We are now at the point where the pair is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is used as the pivot point. The Diverging Lower Lows trend-line should provide the necessary Support to sustain this consolidation until the 1D Golden Cross is formed that will start the new rally towards the top of the long-term Channel Down. The ideal buy can be timed when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross.
On the other hand, if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks, be ready to sell towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, and then buy for the long-term.
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GBPAUD | New perspective The identification of a strong bearish impulse leg on the 4H time frame which was followed by a retracement into the 61.8/78.6% appears to be a clue into the strength of the sellers at this juncture in the market.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD | New perspective Despite the identification of a reversal pattern that supports a bullish momentum, I am thinking of taking a counter-trend opportunity as the current structure suggests that buyers are yet to find the momentum to break through the key level at the 1.776 area.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD | New perspective | folow-up detailsA follow-up detail on the GBPAUD that was published in the course of last week's trading session (see link below for reference purposes) as we closed with a minimum of 150profits move in our last trade, the retest of the neckline of the reversal structure we identified on the daily/4H time frame will be a bullish confirmation. Then it is most appropriate that we lookout for bullish momentum from this area (1.76000) in the near future.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD Bullish Divergence on RSI may stop the sellingThe GBPAUD pair has been declining after the January 28 Lower High on the multi-year Channel Down. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding as Resistance, this bearish sentiment should continue to dominate. During the last Lower Low leg in July 2020, when the 1D MA50 broke to the upside, the selling stopped and GBPAUD turned sideways on a neutral price action.
Before that, the first sign to warn of this change in trend was the bullish divergence on the 1D RSI, which was on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows. We suggest to keep selling only if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks (dashed line) and target the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (orange trend-line). Until then, wait for the 1W MACD to make a Bullish Cross and buy. If that takes place above the Diverging Lower Lows line, target the 0.786 Fib retracement level within the Channel Down (blue). If it takes below the Diverging Lower Lows, target 1.77000.
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GBPAUD | perspective for the new weekDespite the obvious, that price action is currently sitting on a strong demand zone; I shall be looking for an opportunity to sell the Pound against the Aussie in the meantime if the price does not break out of the structure explained in the video.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD | perspective for the new weekThe Pound has been trending higher since the beginning of last year and has since been rejected at A$1.915area on two separate occasions (August 2021 and February 2022) thereby leaving a clue for selling opportunity if the price does not break out of this area.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Top)
Observation: i. Zooming in on the daily timeframe, the visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows reveals the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last 3 months.
ii. However, after testing the major supply zone around the A$1.92 area; price action appears to began a spiral downward a phenomenon that wants to be similar to what happened in August 2021.
iii. The appearance of a double top structure within an important supplication (A$1.92) area appears to be confirmed when price did a breakdown and retest of its neckline in the last couple of weeks.
iv. In this regard, I shall look forward to a breakdown of the trendline for confirmation to open a short position on this pair in the coming week(s).
v. Hence, the below trendline remains a comfortable area to sell the Pound... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:3
Potential Duration: 5 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD Buy signalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price remains above the 1D MA50, which during the previous bullish leg to the Channel's Higher High, was the Support.
Target: 1.96000 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Extra indicators:
* The 1D MA50/100 Bearish and Bullish Crosses happened almost at the exact levels of the Cup patterns. An internal Channel Up followed the Bullish Cross.
* The RSI sequences of as the Cup transitioned to a Channel Up, are very similar.
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GBPAUD Multiple Confluence SellHigh confluence sell area with multiple confirmation:
- 61.8% Fib Retracement level
- Previous minor flip/supply & liquidity zone (Red Zone)
- Touch of bearish trend trend line
- Break & Retest of counter-trend line (Watch for bearish candlestick signals)
- Price has started to make lower lows and lower highs
Entry:
Wait for 3 or more confirmation with good bearish structure/candle
Take Profits:
- Main Take Profit points will be at 1.87500 & 1.87000 (TP2 & TP3)
- TP 1 is a conservative exit (Best to take partial profits and set SL to BE if there is good bearish momentum)
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new weekThe continuation of bearish pressures appears to be emphasized at the AU$1.89150/1.89550 area. Since late August 2021, it can be observed that price continue to reject this area as buyers find it difficult to push prices further. Following a continued rejection of AU$1.8950 which also makes a confluence at exactly 61.8% retracement of prior bearish momentum and the disappointing UK Retail Sales report failing to boost the British pound across major pairs, I see an opportunity to t
ake a bearish bias on this pair in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (61.8% retracement)
Observation: i. The line drawn under pivot lows is a visual representation of the support level which reveals the prevailing direction of price action since the beginning of September 2021.
ii. As far back as April 2019, the AU$1.89150/1.89550 is a zone that has a memory for bearish momentum.
iii. The Bullish Trendline guided price back to AU$1.89350 during last week trading session to form a Double Top look-a-like.
iv. Double Top: Having an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern right inside a Supply zone appears to be a signal that a risk of a further decline in price is imminent as long as the price breaks below AU$1.88400 (Neckline) in the coming week(s).
v. Below Key level @ AU$1.88950 remains a comfortable zone to sell the Pound for the Aussie in the coming week(s).
vi. A further breakdown/retest of AU$1.88400 welcomes an opportunity to add to our existing position... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 2 to 7days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new weekA Breakout of channel negated my speculation on this pair as price continued to find new highs (see link below for reference purposes) and the appearance of a Double Top structure at this juncture in the market insinuates a risk of further decline if price successful breakdown Neckline @ AU$1.87800. Positive development unfolding as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expecting that once the covid restrictions end, the economy would stage a quick rebound as it revised down its 4Q GDP forecast by 0.75%.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Top)
Observation: i. It is very glaring that the Pound has imposed a show of strength over the Aussie since the beginning of the year 2021 hereby registering an 8.7% gain to culminate at AU$1.89800 at the end of July 2021.
ii. The appearance of Double Top structure at the very peak of the Bullish run inspires an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern after the price touched a peak two consecutive times (AU$1.89800 & AU$1.89230 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs.
iii. Even as sellers continue to make attempts to close below Neckline @ AU$1.878000 in the last two weeks, positive developments from the RBA incites a possible strength for the Aussie at least for the meantime as we anticipate a Breakdown of AU$1.87800 in the coming week(s).
iv. In this regard, I have identified a supply niche around AU$1.88500/1.88740 - an area I suspect momentum for selling opportunity as below key level remains a comfortable zone to open a position.
v. A successful Breakdown/retest of Neckline shall be an opportunity to add a position to our existing position.
vi. For the meantime, I am assuming that the Bearish expectation might be a correction of the impulse leg (see weekly chart below) until proven otherwise...Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 3 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.