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Gbpchfanalysis

GBPCHFThe British pound has shot straight up in the air against the Swiss franc during trading on Thursday, but it is worth noting that he gave back about half the gains. Because of this, it will be interesting to see if Sterling can keep its strength, considering that it peeled away from the 50 day EMA almost immediately. The 50% loss of the earlier session gains does not bode well for confidence. You will notice that we recently had seen a massive shooting star that reached all the way up to about the highs of where we were during the day on Thursday. In other words, there is probably a significant amount of resistance in the 1.2360 level. The 50 day EMA sits there as well, so there is a certain amount of technical analysis that could come into this picture as well. Regardless, the market is in a downtrend and therefore even though we have seen a couple of days were the market had really try to turn itself around, it cannot hang on to gains. This tells me that this probably continues to be a “sell on the rallies” type of deal. I find this particularly interesting considering that the British pound spiked against almost everything, and many of its other pairs kept its gains. This could be a function of Swiss franc strength though, so that is something that needs to be thought about. Nonetheless, this looks like a market that is destined to revisit its lows, so I am looking for shorting opportunities over the next two weeks. On a breakdown below the candlestick for the Thursday session, I suspect that would be good enough to get short yet again. To the upside, if we were to take out the 1.24 handle, then I would be more convinced of this breakout it is at that point we would have work our way through significant amounts of resistance, and therefore it would be a move that would have been very resilient and taken a lot of effort. In that scenario, it becomes more of a buy-and-hold scenario where I think eventually we take out the 200 day EMA. Keep in mind that this pair has a certain amount of risk appetite attached to it, rising one risk appetite is strengthening, and falling when it is falling. This looks like a market that is destined to revisit its lows, so I am looking for shorting opportunities over the next two weeks.
Short
by SmoothJB
1
A glance into CHF crosses (The ultimate safe heaven)Hi traders, in this post let's take a look into the CHF crosses which not only I think presents good trading opportunities, but also will give us a " feeling" about the risk in the markets at this moment. EurChf: As you can see in the main chart (weekly) EurChf is in a clear downtrend since the beginning of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and in the past 7 years, the pair has formed a pattern that resembles an H&S. More importantly though is that the pair is trading at this moment exactly in a strong support above 1 very important figure(We don't care about 3% difference looking at a longer TF) Going to daily Here we can see that since March's top above 1.1, the pair has started to drop, and since September, this drop is accelerating, but more importantly, in the past 2 months, EurChf has broken under 3 important daily support levels. The month of December is marked by consolidation with the pair trading in a tight range. However, last week can give us a clue, with the strong selling and reversal before the 1.05 figure. In conclusion, I expect EurChf to continue its descent at the beginning of 2022 and to reach at least parity figure. GbpChf: Similar to EurChf, here also we have a multi-year downtrend, and going to the daily chart, we can see that the pair is accelerating down since late October also here. December, in GbpChf's case, is marked by a flag, which can lead to continuation, and, very important in my opinion, the BoE rate rise did nothing but a spike up, strongly reversed, leaving a Pin Bar on our chart. 1..2150-1.22 is the support zone, and a break here could accelerate losses to the next important support under 1.17. Such a trade would have a 1:3 risk: reward ratio and, in my opinion, GbpChf needs to be on our watch list in the next weeks. AudChf: We can see something similar in AudChf, a pair very sensitive to risk... The pair is accelerating its loss in late October and we have a break under very important 0.67 support, with this break confirmed as genuine last week. The next support for this pair is 0.64 zone, but once this is cleared, AudChf can spiral down to at least 0.6
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
13
GBPCHF Long (Mean Reversion) with 3X Potential Reason List of Reasons for potential pull back/mean reversion: 1: The market is over extended and has been moving bearish for almost 3 weeks straight with no pull back. This is more visible on the weekly chart than on the daily chart. 2: The trendline on the daily chart was broken with no retest. 3: Month Support level was broken with no retest around the 1.25*** area Summary: The trade has the potential to be a 4:1 RR or more abut this will depend on how deep the pull back is. Targets are set using fib tool. We also have to wait for the market to change from bearish to bull which will be visible on the H4 and Daily chart. Once the market turn bullish, we will then be able to determine the correct RR of the trade. The trade will be left to run until the target is reached or between 5 to 10 trading days, whichever comes first. Those who plan to sell the market in its current state must be very careful as smart money might close short some positions on the pair, forcing price to turn bullish, allowing them grab some liquidity.
Long
by NDOBObanks
GBPCHF | Perspective for the new weekSince my last publication on this pair, we witnessed a surge of 170pips in our direction before the bears eventually came in (see link below for reference purposes). Despite the heightened risk of a more disruptive Brexit outcome from the ongoing EU-UK tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol and contrary to expectations of the majority, I do have an underlining feeling that the Pound might sneak to the upside a little in the coming week(s) before the decline resumes again. Hence with the appearance of a Double Bottom structure that is awaiting confirmation, we should anticipate a counter-trend opportunity in the meantime. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) | Trendline Observation: i.Since mid-October, we have witnessed price action spiral down to a bus stop around Fr1.22800 a couple of times in the month of November 2021. ii. The visual representation of a resistance trendline drawn over pivot highs reveals the prevailing direction and speed of price action in the last 3 weeks. iii. And since hitting Fr1.22800(twice), I have observed that sellers are meeting strong resistance from the buyers at this zone making this level a Demand zone to reckon with and in addition evidence of a Breakout of Trendline is beginning to happen in the last couple of days. iv. The appearance of an evolving Double Bottom within this Demand zone which has a memory as far back as February 2021 for buying potential might not be a coincidence. v. Double Bottom: Technically, this is a charting pattern that describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action. vi. Following the major downtrend that lasted 3 weeks, the appearance of a Double Bottom at this juncture signals a reversal and the beginning of a potential uptrend in the coming week(s) especially when a Breakout/retest of Neckline @ Fr1.24000 is confirmed. iv. Even as we await a confirmation which will happen if the price break above the Key level @ Fr1.24000 (Neckline); for me, buying opportunity should present itself above Fr1.23650 with an opportunity to add to our existing position at Breakout/retest of Neckline NB: Please note that this is a temporary counter-trend opportunity within a Bearish perspective... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 3 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
2