GBPEUR Two Possible setupsHi
As you can see in the chart, the price has formed an ascending channel, which I think might break it from the downside.
On the other hand, the election might affect this pair too, so it's a bit risky in this situation, but we're masters of risk, right? be careful of slippage.
Price is bearish on every timeframe; I suggest you zoom out and see the bigger picture.
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GBPEUR
EUR/GBP🇪🇺 🇬🇧 to finish the HEad&Shoulders pattern!+0.53% on EUR/GBP🇪🇺 🇬🇧. The pair has been forming the Head & Shoulders pattern. The ROC 3 and RSI indicate overbought zones let alone that the price is testing pretty strong 0.91030 level that most probably will not be broken and the formation of the H&S pattern will continue.
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ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs.
Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year.
For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP.
On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout.
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GBPEUR Sell SignalPattern: Channel Down on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Lower High trend-line of the pattern. Also the move appears to be in symmetrical fashion with July-August 2019, even on MACD terms.
Target: 1.0800 (just above the symmetrical Support and Lower Low of the Channel Down.
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Most recent GBPEUR signal:
UK and The New Cold War|Brexit|China|Trump|Brief analysis|Bloomberg: The UK does a U-Turn on China, Forced into an uneven fight.
Quote:
(Instead of opening up the UK to Chinese investment, the government is now looking at protecting critical companies takeovers. Where the country used to welcome Chinese technology—allowing Huawei to supply equipment for its 5G infrastructure at the start of the year—it’s now looking at alternative suppliers.
«As a country we’ve been complacent about the threat from China for too long» said Bob Seely, a Concervstive MP who sits on the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. «There’s a growing realization that the China we wanted to see is not the China that has emerged»)
The new Cold War that I’ve told you about before, is here.There were talks about the new Cold War between Russia and the West, but pretty much everyone agrees on that Russia is not a systemic threat. The "real" new Cold War is the collective West VS China. And it is surprising that it took the West so long to see the Chinese threat for what it is.
The government apparatus direction is hard to turn, but, once turned, the direction stays for a long time. If Donald Trump wins, he will not be constrained by the necessity of winning the next elections and will be able to do pretty much whatever he wants towards China. And by "He" I mean the collective powers behind Trump, not the so common these days demonic depiction of the "Orange Man- bad".
The four more years of “whatever he wants” will have an effect of sealing this foreign policy approach and then, democrat or republican in the Oval Office and the Senate, in the US, Tory or Labor in the parliament in the UK, the foreign policy direction on China will remain the same. Divestment, diversification, trade war, sanctions, etc.
Brexit:
By the way, the coronavirus and now the riots in the US and the UK have almost made the public forget about Brexit, which is far from over, as the new deal needs to be cut. The damage to the economy form the coronavirus, together with the lack of media attention, which is fixated on the virus craze like the eye of Sauron, will either allow the Tory government to cut a softer, closer deal, using the self-imposed crisis as an excuse, making the case for that is the best option for the recovery, with the Tory voters being preoccupied with the attempts of making a living, or, in contrast, emboldened by the fact that one can now blame all the economic and social damage on covid-19, the Tories will go for the hardest deal possible, pleasing its core voting base without much of the meaningful opposition form the left.
To be clear: I do believe, that the UK can be better off outside the UK economically in the long run, should the country make the right choices after the exit, yet the short term economic effect of the hard Brexit will be negative, most likely. A fact that which would have tied the hands of the government in the normal times, but now, paradoxically, when things are at their worst, it might be easier for them to go for the hard deal, for no one will be able to estimate the "damage" done. All fingers will be pointed at the coronavirus. And the public is so exhausted by the covid lockdown, that Brexit is unlikely to re-captivate its imagination again.
This is the current state of affairs:
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and has now entered an 11-month transition period.During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules.However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament.The transition period deadline is 30.06.2020. The end of the current transition period is 01.01.2021.
Will the UK get an extension, under the corona excuse, or will the EU use the moment to push the weakened UK into signing whatever deal the EU offers, we will see very soon.
The extension seems inevitable to me, but, in case it is denied, or not asked for, it might actually push the pound down. So if there is one, there is nothing to trade, but if there isn’t, then it is reasonable to expect a weaker pound.
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EURGBP wedge retestPrevious analysis worked out perfectly, even the increase at the flag was great, wish it was always that easy :). Now we can see the target zone was exactly the high and we have come back all the way down again. Now this kind of movement gives potential, that is assuming the rally from last week was a test of the market to see what the resistance is/was. Now we get a possible second attempt. If that theory is correct, it should make a bigger rally than the previous one, but can't say yet of course.
My guess now is, is seeing a small break of support as we can see on the right, but if the drop falls short and we hang there (say staying above the green support on the left, something like the blue line), then i think this could be a great play. So i am going to wait and see how it will play out the coming day or so, then potentially taking on a trade if i see my thoughts play out.
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Previous analysis:
EURGBP Bullish Wedge, part 2So far so good :), wedge broke up but still not a big rally though. On the right we can see the double
is playing out as well. Said would wait for a flag, not it's being formed a bit lower than i wanted but looks like a consolidation, so will wait if the 2h candle closes above the 0.8735ish, will move stop towards BE as well if it happens.
Previous analysis:
EURGBP Bullish WedgeLooks like a nice double bottom in combo with a bullish wedge here. RR is pretty great here. Now there is a chance for a small stop hunt like the green line on the left is showing, but can't know up front. Going to try a part here now, if we see a nice bull flag form as i have shown on the right, going to make it a normal size. Current attempt, using the green on the right as my stop. If it breaks, going to wait and see first if the green line on the left might play out or not.
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Previous analysis: