GBPEUR
GBP/EUR Ascending Triangle FormationClear ascending triangle pattern recognisable on daily and weekly timeframes, there is a bullish bias using the 3 drives pattern. With this in mind, and the recent rejection of the lower support line, use a break of the counter trend line to confirm the trade. Ideally price should eventually break out at the to of the triangle, however expect a retest of the lower support before surging upwards.
Another Flag PatternGBP/EUR has formed a flag pattern and to see its seems we have a false breakout, thats represented by the RSI showing overbought, so I would wait for the rebound to lower trendline for support and then the partial rise will be complete and then its a buy. Also the 50 MA is showing support and has crossed over with the 20 MA.Also, the price is in a separate area in the pitchfork
GBP/EUR Long - Bullish ChannelThis is a good opportunity for an entry to go long. GBP/EUR is currently ranging in a bullish channel, price is currently at the low of the channel and so far has failed to breakthrough. Stops can be placed just below the trendline and targets are at the high of the channel. Resistance may be found at the bearish trendline that is forming within the channel (as shown). However, if this is broken we can expect price to reach the top of the channel.
GBP/EUR Short at Channel ResistanceWe are approaching the top of an upward channel, this key area of resistance is a good area for a sell opportunity. This is supported by divergence, that suggests that the next peak will be lower than the last - which would fall at the top of the trend line. Before placing a trade wait until the candle closes, if the candle closes outside of the trend line the set up is invalid. Finally, this upward trend has a bias to break to the upside, so this opportunity needs to be considered thoroughly.
Clear Triangle Pattern, with great Risk/Reward ratioOn the graph, there is the triangle pattern, one of the most wide known phenomenon in forex trading, which makes it one of the most reliable strategy as well: waiting for the break through and opening position in the appropriate direction of the breakthrough.
Good risk reward ratio:
If Long then we can put stop loss at around 1.1659 and take profit at 1.2338 --> R/R ratio of roughly 2.5
if Short then we can put stop loss at around 1.2055 and TP at 1.1198
GBPEUR at critical positionI tend to watch trends. Higher time frames show the bigger picture and avoid much of the noise within 30 min and 1H time frames. GBPEUR or EURGBP is at a crucial stage.
The following on GBPEUR taken altogether may be indicative (not predictive):
1. Very low cross of Aroons on 1D
2. Vstops (20,4) signalling change of trend on 1D and 4H.
3. Price favouring to fight against level of resistance on 4H.
This idea is not prescriptive about what traders should do, or how they might take a position. The markets could well decide on going south.
There is more trouble in the Eurozone ahead as Italy and seven other eurozone countries risk breaking the bloc's rules (GIYF). To me, this means that confidence in the EURO may continue to fall. If demand for EURO falls, this would mean a potential lift for GBPEUR, if Sterling remains static.
However, the Sterling is at an all time low in it's history - and the UK economy looks overall on a good footing for recovery post-Brexit. I'm expecting Sterling to rise. If Sterling rises and EURO falls in demand, then GBPEUR as a pair should rise. I warn again that these are speculative statements - not predictions. I may be entirely wrong about my assessments. In trading we contract to be wrong - but we contract to limit our losses and maximise our gains, by whatever method.
Disclaimer: Dance with danger but at your own risk. As Akil Stokes once said, "You're to blame" LOL. In other words, take positions if you wish but your losses are your own. I make no assurances that this analysis will lead to a gain. I accept that 80% of my analyses will be wrong and therefore an 80% loss rate. You have been warned/told.
EURGBP Short - 0.86100EURGBP has retraced up to the 38.2 fib level from the most recent swing low which has given me an aggressive short entry point back down to the previous lows at the 0.84900 level.
We are overbought on all timeframes from the 4hr down which has given me confidence to bag at least 20 pips or so profit from this trade.
My mid-term bias however is bullish up to the 0.86100 level which has proven to be strong support in the recent past; support turns to resistance and so I will look for a longer term short position from there.
GBPEUR SIMPLE BUT EFFECTIVE BREAKOUT TECHNIQUE (4HOUR)GBPEUR looks to continue its push to the downside following,
a break and a 4 hour close below the;
1. trend line and 2. the 61.8% fib level.
Confirming this is the breakout retest of the 61.8% level
a major critical level along with the further confirmation from
the moving averages which reflects the average consensus of value in price.
All these confirmations are a key factor in the probability of prices continuation the the downside.