(1D) Some BREXIT contendersThis line chart is very busy, comparing a few common GBP pairs. I thought it was useful to make this comparison to see what was happening with GBP by keeping the numerator common across the lot.
Overall I find that GBP has been recovering in recent days, as BREXIT approaches. I had expected this phenomenon to occur. It does not mean that GBP will necessarily continue to strengthen after BREXIT. I cannot foretell the future.
Other thoughts on comparing instruments here .
High volatility is expected over the next 72 hours. All traders should ensure that their risk management strategies are sharpened up. The only thing you can control is your loss.
GBPEUR
The BREXIT three to watchBREXIT fever has hit the world of forex. I suggest these are the big three to watch: GBPUSD, EURUSD, and GBPEUR (or EURGBP). There is a macro-psychology operating out there I suspect. In times of trouble and uncertainty human nature tends to take the safe position. Hence Sterling has taken a step down for the moment because the reality is that 'everybody' wishes to safeguard their positions. However in recent days there is a growing realisation among some that Sterling simply won't just roll over and fall off the charts. If Britain does BREXIT, the uncertainty would be put to bed (at least for a while).
-The EURO has been in trouble for the last 5 years. Also, watch for the next shock wave expected to hit Deutschebank - over leveraged to the tune of 73 Trillion . (This does not mean that the EURO depends totally on Deutschebank)
-The European Union has been crumbling economically for quite a few years. Some know about it and some don't. The Union may not withstand a Brexit. The whole 'house of cards' may come tumbling down in the year or two following Brexit.
- If Britain Brexits, I suspect the pound will take off like a rocket in the week or two after.
- Turbulence in the forex markets will 'infect' the stock markets.
Britain is a resourceful nation - its people willing to sacrifice for a greater end. The Brits mean business. As I travel all over the UK all I see in every major city is extensive overhauling of buildings, construction of new structures, and roadways. Business is booming here. I think they've been preparing for Brexit for at least the last 5 years. Brexit - should it happen, will simply be the starter's shot
At the moment - if Brexit, my expectation ( not prediction ) is for GBPUSD to fall further but then rise again like the Phoenix. I expect EURUSD to fall in the next few weeks and continue south whatever happens. I therefore reason that GBPEUR or EURGBP are safer at this time or over next few weeks.
If no Brexit - sterling is still likely to rise, as uncertainty is relieved. Britain continues to grow regardless of the state of the Union.
This is not a time for fear. We live for volatility! But expected greater degrees of turbulence, means that our risk management processes need to be sharpened up. This is the real business. Sloppy traders will be shaken out. Disciplined traders will have a fun time! Best wishes to all.
GBPEUR double bottom with strong bullish divergenceWe have what looks like a double bottom here. I entered this trade at 1.2762 but forgot to share, but there is still room to enter.
RSI shows bullish divergence below the oversold point, which is a strong signal. My initial profit target is based on structure.
Today's ChartThe primary trend of EUR/GBP is bullish on charts and price is trading above the trend line in its 4 hourly chart. In 4 hourly chart the price is sustaining above 200 day SMA and taking support of 50 day SMA indicating uptrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 0.7665 and support at the level of 0.7525. If it breaks its resistance level on the upside and sustains above it then we can expect it to show further bullish movement in the pair.
INDICATORS
MACD is sustaining in its positive territory indicating the bullish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its buying zone indicating the upcoming bullish trend in the pair.
STRATEGY
EUR/GBP is looking bullish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for buy on lower level strategy for this pair for intra-day to mid-term positions in it.
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THE BIG BUBBLE_QE EFFECTS FROM BEGINNING_NOVEMBRE 2008The Big Bubble ... as every time this time is different ... it's true this time the outbreak was unprecedented...
QE effects from the beginning - start end 2008
S&P(orange) +186% - USD/JPY +22% USD/EUR +15%
Nikkei (blue Mountain) +165% JPY/USD -22%
FTSE100(blue points) +80% GBP/EUR +21% GBPUSD+3%
DAX(green points) +201% EUR/USD -15%
MIB Italy( brown points) +46% EUR/USD -15%
.. also in financial bubbles economic gaps are maintained . Strong correlation between S & P and DAX and the moment when the first QE American had exhausted its strength ( with the devaluation of the dollar vs yen ) , new push came from QE Japanese ABE ( with svlutazione the yen vs the dollar) . Stronger seems the effect of QE UK as a steep and steady growing index tied to a currency like the pound which has always maintained its value both against the dollar and the euro . The Europe is Germany and dax..il benefits from the propagation effects on other markets like Italy ... is ever fail to put and push the economy and to hold this system after inflating a bubble like this...
Somthing to Think About #2In the grand scheme of things it looks as though a shift is ready to take place. It has taken me some time to realize that shift but it is finally here. Take look at the GBPEUR to the left. Notice how its price moves are converse to that of WTI, EURUSD, and XLE.
The yellow circles you see are areas where similar behavior is forming. In the GBPEUR the opposite behavior is forming to the downside. You can see this correlation is approaching a long time resistance level. Just as the EURUSD is approaching a long term support level.
Oil looks to correlate positively with the movement of the EURUSD. As it also moves in exaggeration to the XLE. Using specific points on the XLE as support and resistance. Could I be on to something.....YESSSSS or Maybe I"m reaching...?
This can all simply be money moving back and forth. Most regular people like to sit in cash. There are times where this is good reasoning. Don't just sit in it. Swim in it till you are ready to strike and when you strike do it with the speed to the Millennium Falcon in hyperdrive.
Note: Might be a good idea to run some spreads on these instruments.
Should we be watching the EU and UK to know where we are going?