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Gbpjpyanalysis

GBPJPY is Holding above the Support , All Eyes on BuyingHello Traders In This Chart GBPJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
2
GBP/JPY e Analysis & Probability Estimation March 4 2025Key Observations Across Timeframes: 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis: Short-term (M15, M30): Price is consolidating near 189.200, testing the previous daily low (PDL) for liquidity. A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred, signaling short-term bearish control. The price is hovering at a key demand zone (PWL - 188.500/187.800). If price breaks below 188.800, further downside is likely. Mid-term (H1, H4): The price rejected equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000), showing weakness. A Change of Character (ChOCH) to the downside suggests a bearish trend continuation. Liquidity below PWL (187.800) could be a target before a potential bounce. Long-term (D1): The price is in a larger downtrend, failing to break above premium zones (~190.500 - 192.000). Liquidity below PWL (~188.000 - 187.500) is uncollected, making it a likely target. The next major support lies in the discount zone (~185.500 - 186.500). 2. Key Liquidity Zones & Supply/Demand Areas: Premium Zone (~190.500 - 192.000): Major resistance; rejection happened here. Equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000): Price failed to hold above, signaling weakness. Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500): Next strong demand area if price continues lower. Previous Daily Low (PDL - 188.800): Price is testing this level for liquidity; a break here could lead to further downside. Previous Weekly Low (PWL - 187.500): Untapped liquidity below, making it a strong target for price movement. Probability-Based Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation to 187.800 - 186.500 (Break Below PDL & PWL) Probability: 65% Reasons: Failure to hold above equilibrium (189.800). Bearish BOS & ChOCH confirmations on H1/H4 suggest a move down. Liquidity below 188.000 (PWL) remains uncollected. Strong daily downtrend supports further downside. Bearish Confirmation: If price breaks and holds below 188.800, expect a move toward 187.500 - 186.500. 2. Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone (Bounce from 188.500 - 187.500) Probability: 35% Reasons: Potential liquidity grab at PWL (188.000 - 187.500) before reversing. Demand zone at 187.500 - 186.500 could cause a bullish reaction. If price holds above 188.800, we may see a bounce to 189.800 - 190.000. Bullish Confirmation: If price fails to break below 188.500, a push back toward equilibrium (189.800) is possible. Final Thoughts & Trade Plan: Bearish bias (65% probability) for continuation toward 187.800 - 186.500. Key Confirmation Levels: Below 188.800: Bearish toward 187.500 - 186.500. Above 189.200: Potential bullish recovery toward 189.800 - 190.000. Trade Setup Overview: Bias: Bearish (65% probability) Entry Type: Breakout & Retest 📉 Sell (Short) Trade Setup: 🔴 Entry: Below 188.800 (Confirmed BOS) 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: 188.200 (PWL - Previous Weekly Low) TP2: 187.800 (Liquidity sweep level) TP3: 186.500 (Major discount zone) 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 189.400 (Above minor liquidity) 📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R): TP1: ~1:2 TP2: ~1:3 TP3: ~1:5 🔹 Confirmation Needed: Strong candle close below 188.800 (Break & retest scenario) No immediate bullish rejection at 188.500 📈 Buy (Long) Trade Setup (Lower Probability - 35%) 🟢 Entry: Above 189.200 (Bullish rejection & BOS) 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: 189.800 (Equilibrium zone) TP2: 190.500 (Supply zone) TP3: 191.500 (Major resistance) 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 188.700 (Below structure low) 📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R): TP1: ~1:2 TP2: ~1:3 TP3: ~1:5 🔹 Confirmation Needed: Price needs to hold above 189.200 with strong bullish momentum. No immediate rejection from equilibrium (189.800). 🛠️ Execution Tips: 🔄 Wait for a clear breakout & retest before entering. ⚖️ Adjust lot size based on risk tolerance (~1-2% per trade). 🕰️ Monitor price action on the lower timeframes (M15/M30) for entry precision.
Short
by wizzywise1
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗GBP/JPY "The Beast" ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (187.700) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (190.500) swing Trade Basis Using the 3H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 185.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Fundamental Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Interest Rates: BoE at 4-4.5% (easing cycle), BoJ at 0.25-0.5%—yield gap narrows, mildly bearish for GBP/JPY. Inflation: UK at 2.5-3% (cooling), Japan at 2.5% (persistent)—neutral, balances GBP vs. JPY strength. Growth: UK GDP ~1-1.5%, Japan ~1%—both modest, neutral impact. Trade: UK exports lag, Japan benefits from U.S. tariff shifts—bullish for JPY, bearish for GBP/JPY. Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven JPY gains in risk-off—bearish pressure. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Macroeconomic Factors˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ U.S.: Fed at 3-3.5%, PCE 2.6%—USD softness aids GBP/JPY—bullish (Eurostat/U.S. data). Eurozone: PMI 46.2—stagnation weakens EUR, indirectly supports GBP—bullish (Eurostat). Global: China 4.5%, Japan 1%—slow growth, JPY safe-haven appeal—bearish (ECB forecasts). Commodities: Oil $70.44—stable, neutral for GBP/JPY (global data). Trump Policies: Tariffs shift trade to Japan—JPY strength, bearish for GBP/JPY. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Global Market Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Forex Markets: GBP/USD at 1.2650, USD/JPY at 150.00—GBP resilience vs. JPY strength—mixed. Equity Markets: FTSE 100 stable, Nikkei range-bound—neutral correlation. Crypto/Commodities: Gold at $2,930—risk-off supports JPY—bearish. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Commitments of Traders (COT) Data˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Speculators: Net short JPY ~140,000 contracts (down from 150,000)—fading bearishness, mildly bullish JPY. Hedgers: Net long JPY ~90,000—exporters expect JPY strength, bearish for GBP/JPY. Open Interest: ~280,000 contracts—steady interest, neutral. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Market Sentiment Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Retail: 65% short GBP/JPY at 189.50 (global X posts)—contrarian upside—bullish potential. Institutional: Cautious, favoring JPY in risk-off—bearish outlook. Corporate: UK/Japan firms hedge at 190-192—neutral. Social Media Trends: Bearish setups to 185.00—short-term bearish sentiment. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Positioning Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Speculative: Longs target 192.00-194.00, shorts aim for 188.00-185.00. Retail: Shorts at 190.00-191.00—squeeze risk if price rises. Institutional: Leaning short GBP/JPY, eyeing JPY strength. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Quantitative Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ SMAs: 50-day ~194.00, 200-day ~193.00—price below both, bearish signal. RSI: 45 (daily)—neutral, fading bearish momentum. Bollinger: 188.50-190.50—price near lower band, potential bounce. Fibonacci: 38.2% from 198.94-189.31 at 190.50—resistance above. Volatility: 1-month IV 10%—±1.80 daily range. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Intermarket Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ GBP/USD: 1.2650—GBP holds vs. USD, bullish for GBP/JPY. USD/JPY: 150.00—JPY weakens vs. USD, bullish for GBP/JPY. XAU/USD: $2,930—gold rise, JPY safe-haven—bearish. FTSE 100: Stable—neutral. Bonds: UK 10-year 4%, Japan 0.9%—yield gap narrows, bearish. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗News and Events Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Recent: Trump tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 25)—risk-off lifts JPY—bearish. Upcoming: U.S. PCE today (Feb 28)—hot data strengthens USD, pressures GBP/JPY; soft data boosts risk-on, supports GBP—mixed impact. Impact: Bearish bias today, PCE reaction pivotal. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Next Trend Move˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Technical: Support: 188.50-188.00 Resistance: 190.50-192.00 Below 188.50 targets 185.00; above 190.50 aims for 194.00. Short-Term (1-2 Days): Dip to 188.00 if PCE lifts USD; rebound to 190.50 if risk-on prevails. Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range 185.00-195.00, tariff/JPY strength key. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Overall Summary Outlook˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ GBP/JPY at 189.50 faces bearish short-term pressure from JPY safe-haven demand (tariffs, risk-off) and technicals (below SMAs), despite GBP resilience vs. USD. COT shows fading JPY shorts, sentiment leans bearish, and PCE today could sway direction. A short-term dip to 188.00 is likely, with medium-term consolidation unless macro shifts favor GBP. ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Future Prediction˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Bullish: 192.00-195.00 by Q2 2025 if USD softens (DXY to 105), risk-on resumes, or BoE holds rates. Bearish: 185.00-188.00 if JPY strengthens (USD/JPY to 145), tariffs escalate, or risk-off persists. Prediction: Bearish short-term to 188.00 (PCE/USD strength), then cautiously bullish to 192.00 by mid-2025 (risk-on recovery). 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
GBP/JPY Tuesday Targets The chart provided is a 4-hour (H4) analysis of GBP/JPY (GJ), incorporating Fibonacci retracement levels, a projected bullish move, and potential daily targets. Below is a detailed breakdown with the inclusion of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and session theory for a more comprehensive outlook. --- Key Observations: Fibonacci Levels and Price Action: 1. Fibonacci Retracement Zone: - The 0.5 (190.420) and 0.618 (189.804) levels are highlighted as key retracement zones where price may pull back before continuing its upward trajectory. - Price is currently near 190.868, indicating it is within range to test these levels for support before a potential bullish continuation. 2. Projected Bullish Move: - A green arrow indicates an anticipated bullish move from the Fibonacci retracement zone toward the daily target at 193.059. - This projection suggests a higher low formation at the retracement zone, aligning with bullish market structure. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): - FVG Identification: - The chart does not explicitly mark FVGs, but they can be inferred in areas where price has moved impulsively, leaving inefficiencies or untested zones. - A potential FVG exists between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, where price may revisit to fill the imbalance before resuming its upward momentum. - Role of FVGs in the Setup: - The FVG within the retracement zone aligns with the expectation of a pullback to support levels, offering high-probability entry points for long positions. Session Theory: 1. Asian Session: - During the Asian session, price may consolidate or test the Fibonacci retracement zone as liquidity builds for the next move. - Watch for low volatility during this session, which could set up the pullback. 2. London Session: - The London session often brings increased volatility and directional moves. - A bullish breakout from the retracement zone could occur during this session, aligning with the projected upward move toward 193.059. 3. New York Session: - The New York session may provide additional momentum to extend the bullish move or retest breakout levels. - If price reaches near the daily target during this session, expect potential resistance or consolidation around 193.059.
Long
by BernerFX
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (188.000) swing Trade Basis Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 197.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 💥Fundamental Analysis UK Economic Growth: The UK's economic growth has slowed down to 1.2% in the last quarter, due to the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Japan Economic Growth: Japan's economic growth has remained steady at 0.5% in the last quarter, driven by the government's stimulus packages. Interest Rate Differential: The interest rate differential between the UK and Japan has widened, with the UK's interest rate at 4.25% and Japan's interest rate at -0.1%. 💥Macro Economics Inflation Rate: The UK's inflation rate has decreased to 2.5% in the last month, while Japan's inflation rate has remained steady at 0.5%. Unemployment Rate: The UK's unemployment rate has remained steady at 3.5%, while Japan's unemployment rate has decreased to 2.2%. Global Trade: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China are expected to have a minimal impact on the GBP/JPY market. 💥Global Market Analysis Forex Market: The global forex market has experienced a moderate increase in volatility, with the GBP/JPY pair experiencing a 1.5% increase in the last 24 hours. Commodity Market: The global commodity market has experienced a moderate decrease, with oil prices decreasing by 1.2% in the last 24 hours. Stock Market: The global stock market has experienced a moderate increase, with the Nikkei 225 index increasing by 1.0% in the last 24 hours. 💥COT Data Speculators (Non-Commercials): 80,000 long positions and 120,000 short positions. Hedgers (Commercials): 120,000 long positions and 80,000 short positions. 💥Intermarket Analysis Correlation with USD: GBP/JPY has a positive correlation with USD/JPY, indicating that a strong dollar could boost GBP/JPY prices. Correlation with Stocks: GBP/JPY has a low correlation with stocks, indicating that GBP/JPY could be a good hedge against stock market volatility. 💥Quantitative Analysis Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is at 185.000, and the 200-day moving average is at 180.000. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 60, indicating a bullish market sentiment. 💥Market Sentiment Analysis The overall sentiment for GBP/JPY is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions. 58% of client accounts are long on this market, indicating a bullish sentiment. 💥Positioning The long/short ratio for GBP/JPY is currently 1.4. The open interest for GBP/JPY is approximately 200,000 contracts. 💥Next Trend Move Bullish Prediction: Some analysts predict a potential bullish move, targeting 195.000 and 200.000, due to the interest rate differential and the weak yen. Bearish Prediction: Others predict a potential bearish move, targeting 185.000 and 180.000, due to the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the strong pound. 💥Real-Time Market Feed As of the current time, GBP/JPY is trading at 191.000, with a 1.2% increase in the last 24 hours. 💥Future Prediction Short-Term: Bullish: 192.000-195.000, Bearish: 188.000-185.000 Medium-Term: Bullish: 200.000-205.000, Bearish: 180.000-175.000 Long-Term: Bullish: 210.000-220.000, Bearish: 160.000-150.000 💥Overall Summary Outlook The overall outlook for GBP/JPY is bullish, with a mix of positive and neutral predictions. The market is expected to experience a moderate increase, with some analysts predicting a potential bullish move targeting 195.000 - 200.000. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
3
GBP/JPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis & Probability Estimation **Timeframes Covered:** - **30-Minute (M30)** - **1-Hour (H1)** - **4-Hour (H4)** - **Daily (D1)** **Key Observations Across Timeframes:** **1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis:** - **Short-term:** (M30, H1) Price is trading near **equilibrium (~189.600 - 189.800)** with minor bullish structure. - **Mid-term:** (H4) Price is rejecting from a previous **liquidity zone**, but still inside a bearish structure. - **Long-term:** (D1) Overall, **GBPJPY is still bearish** with price bouncing from the **discount zone (188.000 - 187.500)** but failing to break above **key resistance (190.500 - 191.000).** **2. Supply & Demand Zones:** - **Premium Zone (~190.500 - 193.000):** Strong supply zone, price may reject if it reaches this level. - **Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500):** Strong demand zone where price recently found buyers. - **Equilibrium (~189.600 - 189.800):** Price is currently consolidating, meaning market is undecided. **3. Liquidity Areas & Key Levels:** - **Previous Daily High (PDH ~190.000) & Previous Weekly High (PWH ~192.000):** These levels may act as liquidity magnets. - **Previous Weekly Low (PWL ~187.500):** If price drops, this will be the next area of interest for liquidity. - **Weak High near 190.500:** If price struggles here, expect a reversal. --- **Probability-Based Scenarios:** **1. Bullish Scenario (Move Towards 190.500 - 192.000)** - **Probability: 50%** - **Reasons:** - Short-term bullish momentum (M30 & H1) suggests price might push toward the **premium zone (190.500 - 192.000).** - If price **breaks and holds above 189.800**, it could push higher. - Liquidity above **PDH (190.000) could be a target** before a potential rejection. **2. Bearish Scenario (Drop Below 188.500 Towards PWL)** - **Probability: 50%** - **Reasons:** - **H4 & D1 remain bearish**, meaning a continuation of the downtrend is still possible. - If price **fails to hold above 189.600**, expect a move lower towards **188.500 or even 187.500 (PWL).** - The **0.618 Fibonacci level (190.626) is acting as strong resistance.** **Final Thoughts & Trade Plan:** - **Market is currently in a neutral zone (50/50 probability)**, meaning it can go either way. - **Key Confirmation Levels:** - **Above 189.800:** Bullish towards **190.500 - 192.000**. - **Below 189.600:** Bearish towards **188.500 - 187.500**.
by wizzywise1
DeGRAM | GBPJPY retest of dynamic supportGBPJPY is in a descending channel between the trend lines. The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel, but it has already reached the dynamic support, which previously acted as a rebound point. On the 1W Timeframe, the chart is in the accumulation zone, which is characterized by the fact that volumes have increased and the pair is held in a certain trading zone. Before reaching the lower trend line, a harmonic pattern was formed, the potential of movement of which held under the 50% retracement level. We expect price growth after fixing above the mentioned retracement level. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
5
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry and short entry. 🏆💸Book Profits, Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!" Buy entry above 192.500 Sell Entry below 187.000 However, I recommended to place buy stop for bullish side and sell stop for bearish side. Stop Loss 🛑: -Thief SL placed at 189.000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bullish Trade -Thief SL placed at 189.000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bearish Trade Using the 4H period, the recent / swing low or high level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: -Bullish Robbers Primary TP 197.000 / Secondary TP 201.000 (or) Escape Before the Target -Bearish Robbers TP 184.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT data, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearishness)., driven by several key factors. 🟠Fundamental Analysis Interest Rates: BoE likely cutting to 4-4.5%; BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, supporting GBP/JPY upside mildly. Inflation: UK at 2.5-3%, Japan at 2-2.5%, capping GBP strength, mildly boosting JPY. Growth: UK GDP 1-1.5%, Japan ~1%, both modest, JPY favored in risk-off. Trade/Geopolitics: U.S. tariffs may boost JPY, UK less exposed. Energy: Stable oil prices (~$70) neutral for JPY. 🟤Macroeconomic Factors USD Strength: Pressures GBP/JPY, JPY gains in risk-off. Global Growth: 3% in 2025, U.S./China slowdown favors JPY. UK Risks: BoE easing weakens GBP. Japan Risks: Policy tolerance limits JPY gains. 🔴COT Data Speculators: Net short JPY (~150,000 contracts), fading bearishness. Hedgers: Net long JPY (~100,000), expect strength. Trend: JPY bottoming, potential GBP/JPY decline. 🟣Market Sentiment Retail: 70% short GBP/JPY, contrarian upside risk. Social Media: Bearish GBP/JPY, JPY optimism. Broker Data: 65% long, overcrowded, reversal possible. 🟡Positioning Analysis Speculators: Moderating JPY shorts, bearish GBP/JPY. Retail: Short cluster at 190.00, squeeze risk. Institutions: Eye 184.000 target. 🔵Next Trend Move Technical: Below 50/200 SMA (194.23/193.20), bearish. Short-Term: Down to 185.00-183.00. Medium-Term: Range 175.94-190.00. Triggers: UK data up to 192.00, JPY strength to 180.00. 🟢Overall Summary Outlook GBP/JPY at 189.000 reflects a tug-of-war between a weakening GBP (due to BoE easing and UK growth risks) and a cautiously strengthening JPY (safe-haven flows, modest BoJ tightening). Fundamentals favor a mild JPY edge, supported by macro trends like U.S. tariff impacts and global slowdown risks. COT data hints at a JPY bottoming, while sentiment and positioning suggest overcrowding in shorts, risking a brief squeeze. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
3
GBPJPY jumps above 190.50The GBP/JPY pair climbs to around 190.70 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) gains strength against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the release of the UK's January Retail Sales data. The Office for National Statistics reported on Friday that UK Retail Sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month in January, compared to a decline of 0.3% in December. This figure exceeded the market's expectation of a 0.3% increase. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales grew by 1.0% in January, compared to a previously revised increase of 2.8% (originally 3.6%), surpassing the forecast of 0.6%. The GBP remains strong in immediate response to the positive UK Retail Sales figures.
Short
by xauusd_rr
GBP/JPY Analysis – 1H & Daily TimeframesCurrent Price: ¥188.48 1-Hour (H1) Chart Analysis: 📌 Downtrend in Play – GBP/JPY is trading within a descending trendline (red), showing continuous lower highs and lower lows. 📌 Support Around ¥188.00 – The pair found temporary support near ¥188.00, aligning with the green trendline, indicating potential buying interest at this level. 📌 Resistance at ¥190.00 – The descending trendline and recent price action suggest that ¥190.00 is a key resistance zone. Any upside move could face rejection here. 📌 Indicators: ✔️ Price remains below short-term moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. ✔️ A break above ¥190.00 would be needed to shift momentum toward bullish recovery. ✔️ A breakdown below ¥188.00 could open doors to ¥186.50 or lower. H1 Prediction: 📉 Bearish Scenario: If GBP/JPY fails to break above ¥190.00, expect further downside toward ¥188.00 and possibly ¥186.50. 📈 Bullish Scenario: A break above ¥190.00 could trigger a rally toward ¥192.00, but strong resistance exists at the trendline. Daily (D1) Chart Analysis: 📌 Strong Downtrend Since ¥200.00 – GBP/JPY has been in a bearish structure, consistently rejecting from lower highs. 📌 Bearish Wick Rejection – Recent price action shows a bearish wick, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. 📌 Descending Triangle Formation – The pair is forming a descending triangle, with lower highs and support around ¥185.00 - ¥186.00 (blue horizontal line). 📌 Indicators: ✔️ The trend remains bearish as price trades below key resistance levels and moving averages. ✔️ If ¥185.00 - ¥186.00 support breaks, expect further downside to ¥180.00. ✔️ A bullish reversal is possible only if ¥192.00 is breached. D1 Prediction: 📉 Bearish Scenario: If GBP/JPY continues to reject lower highs, expect ¥186.00 - ¥185.00 to be tested soon. A break below this could send price toward ¥180.00. 📈 Bullish Scenario: A break and close above ¥192.00 would signal a trend shift toward ¥195.00+. Final Outlook: 🚨 Overall Bias: Bearish 🔸 Short-Term (H1): Watching for a retest of ¥190.00 resistance or further downside toward ¥188.00. 🔸 Long-Term (D1): GBP/JPY remains bearish unless it breaks above ¥192.00. 💡 Strategy: ✅ For sellers: Look for rejections at ¥190.00 and target ¥186.00. ✅ For buyers: Wait for a confirmed breakout above ¥192.00 before considering a long position. 📊 GBP/JPY remains in a clear downtrend—until key resistances break, the trend favors the bears! 🚨
Short
by DhandaTheGreat