GBP/USD Strengthens Above 1.2400 Amid Dollar Challenges"The GBP/USD pair consolidates its overnight slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the psychological level of 1.2500, or the two-month high, trading in a narrow range in Thursday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the spot price attempts to hold above the significant 1.2400 mark, contingent on the price dynamics of the U.S. Dollar (USD).
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the modest recovery from its lowest since September 1, amid the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations. These bets were reassessed after Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, indicating a milder-than-expected decline in consumer inflation, suggesting a cooling economy. Furthermore, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, driving down U.S. Treasury bond yields and acting as a hurdle for the greenback.
Additionally, the prevailing risk-acceptance environment is seen weakening the safe-haven status, providing some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the upward trend is constrained as more anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) initiating interest rate cuts soon, reinforced by a slight drop in UK consumer inflation on Wednesday. In fact, the UK's monthly CPI remained unchanged, and the annual rate plummeted sharply from 6.7% to 4.6% in October – hitting a two-year low. Moreover, the core CPI also decreased from 6.1% in September to 5.7%.
The mixed fundamental backdrop ensures caution among risk-seeking traders, waiting for clear short-term direction, especially with no significant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar includes regular weekly jobless claims, the Fed Philly Manufacturing Index, and industrial production figures. This, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, may influence USD price dynamics and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
Gbpjpyshort
GBPJPY → Struggles around 188.00, on soft UK inflationThe British Pound (GBP) remains steady against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during Wednesday’s mid-North American session after reaching a daily high of 188.24; the pair has fallen below the 188.00 mark, courtesy of weak inflation data from the UK. Therefore, the GBP/JPY hovers around 187.94, virtually unchanged.
From a technical perspective, the FX:GBPJPY is upward biased, but a daily close below 188.00 could pave the way for a deeper pullback, which could extend toward the 187.00 figure. If sellers push prices below that level, the next demand area could be the Tenkan-Sen at 185.75m followed by the Senkou Span A at 185.13. the next support would be 185.00.
On the other hand, the GBP/JPY uptrend would continue if it remains above 188.00, with the first resistance seen at the current year-to-date (YTD) high of 188.28. Sentiment further improvement would put into play the November 2015 swing high at 188.80 before buyers challenge the 190.00 figure.
GBP/USD Slips to 1.2450 on Weak UK Inflation DataGBP/USD faces modest downward pressure, dropping to 1.2450 in European trading on Wednesday. UK CPI inflation fell to 4.6% YoY in October from 6.7% in September, causing the British Pound to lose ground. The pair struggles to find firm footing above the 1.2300 level on daily closing basis, potentially paving the way for an extended recovery toward the psychological level of 1.2350.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points upwards around the midline, indicating an ongoing upward momentum for the pair. The next resistance level is envisioned at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2437.
However, if the upward trend stalls, immediate support will likely be seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.2255, below which the 21-day SMA at 1.2205 may test bullish commitments. Further decline could challenge the 1.2100 demand area.
The extended three-day recovery of GBP/USD in European trading on Tuesday, driven by positive mixed employment data in the UK, appears to be limited as traders exercise caution ahead of the highly significant US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The outcome of Wednesday's UK inflation data could significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, adding volatility to the British Pound.
Ahead of the crucial US CPI data, FXStreet's Senior Analyst Yohay Elam notes that unexpected results above 0.2% could lead to market reevaluation. A surprise decline in inflation might fuel Wall Street's rally while exerting pressure on the US Dollar. However, an as-expected release may immediately positively affect stocks and create pressure on the US Dollar, even if the core CPI remains high.
Simultaneously, the pair may receive signals from improving risk sentiment, reflected in the slight uptick of 0.12% in the US S&P 500 futures contract.
gbpjpy sell. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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GBP/USD Maintains Uptrend Above 1.2250 GBP/USD saw an increase from the 20-day SMA to 1.2280 on Monday and is consolidating around 1.2275 in the early Asian trading session, supported by the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. Attention is shifting towards employment data in the UK and crucial US CPI figures on Tuesday. The currency pair reversed its direction after testing the 1.2200 level, with an upward trending line, the 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligning, emphasizing the significance of the support level and the sellers' hesitation.
On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.2260 (SMA50) followed by 1.2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2340 (static level).
Support levels are set at 1.2200, 1.2140 (static), and 1.2100 (psychological level). What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
Two resistance level for GBP/JPYDear traders, GBP/JPY has two resistance which are the key
to predict it's future price movements.
First, we have a moderate resistance level of 185.90 level. Second,
we have another resistance at the 186.70 level. One of these two levels
can be a reversal point for GBP/JPY.
We need to watch out and observe if there is a bearish price action
at either of these levels. A reversal from either of these two levels
can lead to a fall to 183.50
GBPJPY with WillsonnnnThe British pound has rallied during the trading session on Monday, reaching the top of the short-term consolidation region that we have been in. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue seeing more of a “buy on the dip” attitude as the interest rate differential between the 2 economies and currencies is big enough to warrant the “carry trade.” This involves getting paid at the end of every session, and therefore it makes it an attractive investment.
Forget USDJPY: Time to watch GBPJPY for intervention? The UK’s inflation rate due this week (early early Wednesday morning), and there is a huge projected drop in the reading from last month, from 6.7% to 4.8%. This huge drop leaves a lot of room for disappointment, and higher CPI reading could exert upside pressure on the GBPJPY, which is already at a multi-month high. It is for this reason I bring up the possibility that traders should watch for intervention in this pair, whether direct or indirect.
Supporting the possibility of a bullish GBPJPY is the rejection of yesterday's significant downside wick (touching the 50-day moving average on the 1-hour chart). This rejection was followed by a further move to the upside.
Further upside will see the pair challenge the three-month high at 186.77 and open the possibility for a correction/ intervention. In the past, ¥185.00 has proven to be somewhat of an anchor point for the pair, but perhaps a more accurate support is now ¥185.50?
Don’t forget that US CPI numbers are due this week too, one day before UK numbers hit the market.
GBPJPY to find sellers at market?GBPJPY - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Previous resistance located at 185.89.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 185.90 (stop at 186.40)
Our profit targets will be 184.70 and 184.40
Resistance: 186.75 / 189.15 / 190.40
Support: 184.90 / 183.40 / 182.40
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GBPJPY with WillsonnnnThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that China's weak recovery and the possibility of a prolonged real estate crisis could further impact Asia's economic outlook. The IMF has reduced its growth estimate for Asia in 2024 to 4.2%, down from the 4.4% forecast in April and the 4.6% forecast for this year, according to the Outlook report. World Economy published last month. This highlights the challenges facing Asian economies as they navigate the current economic landscape.
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GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Level After UK GDPGBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a better-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. The ascending trendline, the Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-period SMA collectively form a robust support level at 1.2200. If GBP/USD drops below this level and confirms it as resistance, the next downside targets could be set at 1,2140 (static level) and 1,2100 (static level).
On the upside, 1,2250 (SMA 50) is considered a dynamic resistance level ahead of 1,2275 (SMA 20) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Mark Following UK GDP Data"GBP/USD extends its slide below 1.2200 in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a year-on-year growth of 0.6% in Q3, surpassing expectations. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
The Japanese Yen market is in declineFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a recent International Monetary Fund research conference that Fed officials are still unsure whether current interest rates are high enough to effectively combat inflation. This suggests further rate hikes may be imminent.
Powell said the Fed aims to keep monetary policy tight enough to reduce inflation to 2% over the long term. However, he expressed uncertainty as to whether this goal had been achieved. He also noted that the Fed may be reaching the limits of its ability to ease price pressures by improving the supply of goods, services and labor. Powell's comments widened the S&P 500's decline, with the index down 0.69% in the previous announcement. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly, most recently at 4.638%. The US dollar index also rose 0.41%.
Market strategists interpreted Powell's comments based on their potential impact. Vasili Serebryakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, believes Powell's comments do not provide significant new information but are viewed by the market as hawkishell
GBPJPY - Long after filling the imbalances ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GBPJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for long. I want price to make a retracement to fill the imbalances lower and then to reject from bullish order block.
Fundamental news: Tomorrow will be released monthly GDP on GBP. If the result is negative for GBP, it will support our analysis.
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GBP/JPY runs into resistance in the 4Hour chartDear traders, as mentioned in yesterday's idea, GBP/JPY has run into resistance
in the 4H chart. Price has backed off after hitting the 4H resistance level.
So, if this continues, GJ can fall further to the 183.50 level. My plan is to short
the rallies in GBP/JPY as long as the resistance holds with target at 183.50