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Gbpjpyshort

Critical Price Area Reached - Is A SELL-OFF Imminent?We have now reached a critical area as the price approaches the 184 level, which marks the beginning of the Monthly SUPPLY/SELL level I discussed in my previous post. This area was I expected to be a target for bulls, although I anticipated a correction before reaching this level, which has not happened yet. The 184 level holds key significance as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the monthly charts from the decline between 2007 and 2009. Considering the fact that we are currently highly overbought and witnessing a slowdown in momentum, with price quickly being sold off after each new high, coupled with divergence signals on the daily charts, a significant correction seems imminent. My expectation now is for one more rally above 184, followed by a swift sell-off and a daily close below this level. I will be patiently waiting for a sell signal on my TRFX indicator to enter the market. The potential for a significant sell-off in this pair is substantial, with my target levels for this idea being 177 and below, while the previous weekly swing high at 172 could also act as a price magnet. These targets are based on higher timeframes, so they may take time to materialize, although intervention by the BOJ could expedite the process. If we were to continue moving higher, it would require a solid breakout above 184 and a daily close beyond this level. This could potentially lead to a deeper move into the Monthly SUPPLY/SELL zone. However, given the current price levels, I would exercise caution when considering buying positions. Hope you enjoyed the post
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by TheFxAce
34
GBP/JPY Bearish reversal on the cards? +1200 Pips potentialDear traders, GBP/JPY's bullish momentum is fading and we are seeing increasing bearish pressure on GBP/JPY. 184 level has not been breached, and we have multiple rejection candlesticks in this level. So, if the bears step at this level, expect a rapid and big decline in GBP/JPY. There is a potential for a 1200 Pip fall to 171 leve l. So, look for strong bearish impulse and sell GBP/JPY is the mavs are breached in the hourly and 4Hour chart .
by YourLazyTrader
16
Update on GBPJPY (Sell)GBPJPY continues to trade within the 183.779 and 182.231 range as we monitor it closely for a breakout from the level to determine our plan move. on the flip we stick to our plan to sell GBPJPY from the Monthly High at which it has reach. Gbpjpy has oversold and now is at monthly sell zone which is a liquidity that has been clear away. Bearish Target; 183.150, 182.231, 180.79, 179.67 and beyond Bullish Target; 184.4, 186.3, 188.4 Dont forget to like, share, comment and follow. #Vimhype
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by Vimhype
2
GBPJPY Sell Idea ??? A detailed Technical and Pictorial AnalysisHello Traders !!! Today, we will delve into the topic of JPY buying, exploring it from both fundamental and technical perspectives. It has come to our attention that many traders, excluding large investors and major players in the Forex market, are perplexed by the significant selling pressure on JPY. The answer to this question is rather straightforward: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not providing substantial support to JPY. When compared to other central banks, the BoJ fails to offer enticing incentives to investors. If this trend continues in the future, it will undoubtedly inflict further damage upon the value of JPY. Technical Analysis GBPJPY is currently displaying a strong uptrend from a technical standpoint, and there is optimism that it will easily reach targets of 190 and 196. However, caution is warranted at these key levels, as indicators in higher timeframes indicate significant overbought conditions. Furthermore, it is highly probable that JPY intervention will occur at these crucial levels, with a stronger connection to the USDJPY pair. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the levels of USDJPY. If USDJPY surpasses the 150-152 range, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will undoubtedly intervene in the Forex market. Hence, those interested in trading GBPJPY must also pay close attention to the key levels of USDJPY. Below I am mentioning some levels to trade GBPJPY. First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57 Fundamental Analysis : When discussing fundamentals, it is notable that all central banks are adopting strict monetary policies and raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. As inflation continues to surge, these banks are implementing robust measures to maintain it within acceptable bounds. However, in stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is displaying a lack of action when compared to its counterparts and maintaining an accommodative monetary stance. This behavior from the BoJ is detrimental to the value of JPY. Therefore, it is advisable to trade JPY pairs cautiously, particularly at key levels, as the BoJ has been repeatedly issuing verbal warnings regarding potential intervention. Now, let us analyze the possibility of intervention. Analyzing the Possibility of Intervention The probability of intervention is widely debated among experts, who argue that concerns regarding intervention are currently unsubstantiated. According to their analysis, Tokyo is expected to limit its actions to verbal warnings this year. Several points support this perspective: Costly nature of intervention: Japan intervened in the market last year to strengthen the yen, marking the first intervention since 1998. In previous instances, authorities had intervened to prevent the rise of the JPY, which could harm the export-oriented economy. The process of strengthening the yen through intervention is complex and expensive. To increase the exchange rate, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising the cost of the currency, which are then sold to weaken the JPY. On the other hand, weakening the yen requires using foreign exchange reserves to exchange dollars for yen. Continuously buying currency to prevent its decline would deplete Japan's monetary reserves. Unlike selling off JPY, where Tokyo can essentially create an unlimited supply of yen, there are limitations to buying back the currency. Approximately 6.35 trillion yen (around $43 billion) was spent on supporting the yen last year. Considering this, it is unlikely that the authorities will engage in large-scale intervention this year and may instead hope for a minor and temporary retreat in the USD/JPY pair. Absence of consumer pressure: Throughout history, the Japanese government has never chosen to intervene to strengthen the yen during periods of low public dissatisfaction. A weak currency generally leads to an increase in the cost of living, causing discontent among consumers. This was observed in Japan towards the end of the previous year when fuel and commodity prices reached record highs, and the depreciation of the yen accelerated, negatively impacting local purchasing power. Consequently, public outrage prompted the government to take action. Currently, although inflation in the country remains above the target of 2%, the effects of high energy prices have diminished, resulting in significantly lower levels of public dissatisfaction. Based on this, it can be inferred that Tokyo lacks compelling reasons to initiate intervention at present. Softer tone of warnings: In recent days, the Japanese government has intensified its warnings of potential intervention. However, it is notable that the tone of these warnings has not shifted significantly. Japanese officials continue to express concerns about sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market while cautioning about possible actions to address excessive yen volatility. In 2022, before implementing actual intervention, the Japanese authorities adopted a much more assertive tone, using phrases such as "deeply concerned" and "decisive steps." Such strong language is absent from their latest statements. Consequently, many analysts perceive the recent warnings by Japanese authorities as mere rhetoric rather than an indication of imminent intervention. what measures BoJ will take to protect further devaluation of the JPY Let's assess the likelihood of the Japanese authorities taking measures to protect their national currency and consider the most realistic scenario for preventing further devaluation of the JPY at this stage. Increased verbal intervention: Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential tightening, the yen has experienced a sharp decline against the dollar. Japanese officials have responded by issuing daily warnings to speculators who try to profit from disparities in monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by trading the USD/JPY pair. Given that the fundamental factors influencing the yen are unlikely to change in the near future, it is expected that traders will continue actively selling the Japanese currency. If the decline of the JPY accelerates, Tokyo may escalate its warnings, promising decisive action against speculative movements. Many experts view this scenario as the most likely one. Atsushi Takeda, an economist from the Itochu Research Institute, stated, "The yen's depreciation is not as significant as last year, as the United States approaches the peak of interest rates. There will likely be one or two more rate hikes. Therefore, we do not anticipate strong JPY volatility leading to further depreciation at this stage." Analysts believe that the Japanese government is primarily focused on managing the pace of currency depreciation rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. Therefore, it is expected that Tokyo will continue with verbal intervention as the USD/JPY pair approaches the 145 level, but it is unlikely to engage in actual market intervention if speculators exceed that threshold. Implementation of intervention: Last year, the Japanese government intervened in the market twice: in September when the yen approached 146 against the dollar, and in October when USD/JPY reached a 32-year high at 152. In 2022, Japan spent $65 billion on direct purchases of JPY. Implementing a new intervention would also incur significant costs for Tokyo, as the authorities would need to utilize the country's foreign exchange reserves to sell dollars. Taro Kimura, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, noted, "Businesses and consumers are now more accepting of a weak yen compared to last year. The recent rally in Japanese stocks may also contribute to their positive sentiment." Considering these factors, along with the benefits of a weaker yen for exporters, experts consider the actual implementation of intervention at this stage to be unlikely. Japanese companies with a global presence have long been the major beneficiaries of a depreciated JPY, resulting in increased overseas earnings for firms such as Toyota, which added 1.3 trillion yen to its annual operating profit, and Sony, which experienced a sales increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yen across five key segments. Hideo Kumano, an analyst at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, stated, "We believe the government will only intervene in the market if the yen suddenly falls to 150. Although they did so last year, currency intervention remains a last resort." Hawkish actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ): Some market participants suggest that the BoJ could halt the yen's decline by adjusting its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Speculation has arisen that the BoJ may make its first hawkish move as early as July. However, Bloomberg analysts believe this expectation is misguided. Toru Fujioka, an economic commentator, shared, "The BoJ has consistently stated that it does not intend to directly curb the yen's depreciation using monetary policy tools, as such actions exceed its mandate and may be seen as currency manipulation." According to Fujioka, the BoJ would only consider adjusting the YCC policy if the bond market experiences significant fluctuations similar to those seen last year, coupled with persistent inflation resulting from wage increases. My Trade Setup First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57, 170.35
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by AhsanTufail
Multiple Timeframe Update on GBPJPY(Sell)GBPJPY after mitigating the Monthly Liquidity at 183.799, Bull is finding it difficult to break the Resistance, The pair has been trading in range market between 183.799 and 182.231 for quiet number of days now, We are certain that the bear will take over the market very soon pushing it down to mitigate the liquidity that were left behind. The Stoch RSI has being over sold for weeks now, The Stoch RSI is a key indictor that communicate the market direction most offen. Bullish Target. 183.799 Done 184.6, 186.7,188.2 Bearish Target; 183.150, 182.231, 180.705, 179.767 #Vimhype Dont forget to Like, Share, Comment and Follow.
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by Vimhype
Update on GBPJPY (Sell)The pair GBPJPY has reach a monthly unmitigated zone, and has mitigated the liquidity, at this point the pair try breaking the high for days now but Sellers would not make way for Bull to break and continue, meaning Bear is like to take control of the price movement pushing it down to the Liquidity gaps that were left behind, For days now the volume at which the pair was moving has reduce indicating that bear is like to take control of the market. The Bull are struggling to break the high but it seems the Bears would not allow. We keep to our plan to sell from the Resistance zone at 183.56 Bear Target; 181.55, 180.69, 179.73. We only plan to Buy when Price breaks the Resistance at 188.56 and retest. #Vimhype Dont for to Like, Share, Comment, and Follow.
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by Vimhype
Watch out for a big fall in GBP/JPYDear traders, GBP/JPY is on a strong uptrend for many weeks now. However, the uptrend seems to have lost momentum in the last few days. The current scenario can be compared to that of a melt-up. However, if the bears step in now, expect a quick fall in GBP/JPY. Watch out for a bearish price action to sell and expect price to fall to at least 172. Price is very over-extended from the EMA so, I do not recommend any long entries at the current level .
by YourLazyTrader
10