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Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
What is GBPUSD next target: 1.27500 or 1.29500?📣 Hello Mates! Our prediction is that GBPUSD will sell from the 1.27350 or 1.280600 area. After that, our sell targets are 1.27500 and 1.27000 🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio. 📈 Our Resistance Levels are spotted at: - 1.28500 - 1.29000 📉 And our Support Levels are set at: - 1.27500 - 1.27000 Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
Short
by BigtimeFx
1
GBPUSD FX:GBPUSD 📣 Examining the pattern of the trend shows that the price movements are developing within the range of the drawn neutral channel. Breaking out of the ceiling range of this channel, which is at the level of 1.2692 - 1.2718, requires fundamental data that will give the dollar a bearish direction. 📣 The ceiling established on February 22, has been created in a very important price and time range, which shows the potential for further downside. If the price fails to break 1.2718 and reaches below 1.2648, we can expect further decline to the range of 1.2600 and 1.2580.
Short
by Daragolbon
gbpusd up GBP/USD declines toward 1.2650 as mood sours GBP/USD turned south and declined toward 1.2650 after spending the European session in a tight range near 1.2700. The negative shift seen in risk mood makes it difficult for the pair to hold its ground Trend momentum is mildly bullish on the intraday and daily DMI studies, suggesting the GBP/USD pair should remain supported on minor dips. But Cable gains have struggled to extend through 1.2700/1.2710 in the past few sessions. A push firmly above 1.2710 targets a move on to 1.2750/1.2775. as marGBP/USD is the forex ticker that shows the value of the British Pound against the US Dollar. It tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a British Pound. The Pound-Dollar is one of the oldest and most widely traded currency pairs in the world. Follow the live GBP/USD rate with the chart and keep up to date with Pound-Dollar news and analysis. Plan your trades with the GBP/USD forecast and key pivot points data and support and resistance levels.kets assess the latest US data releases.
Short
by Mark804
GBP USD up The daily chart portrays the pair as neutral to downward biased, with the GBP/USD hovering around the 200-DMA at 1.2561. a daily close below the latter could open the door to challenge 1.2500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2487. Once cleared, that could open the door to test the next support level seen at 1.2374, November’s 17 low. Besides that, GBP/USD takes cues from the fall in US Treasury bond yields after skyrocketing more than 12 basis points a day ago, dropping six basis points and standing at 4.26%. Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Short
by JohnHarry_7
GBP/USD analysisGBP/USD has broken daily extreme low due to a weekly order block therefore we can say that it is in a down trend. It has been in a consolidation period since half way through December and has finally broken out the range taking liquidity to the downside. In doing so it has left a 4H order block and a huge imbalance on the 1H timeframe. It can either go up to the order block where I would be considering sells, or it could partially fill the imbalance and then start to sell. In the meantime I will be taking buy trades on the 15m and 5m chart until it reaches the premium area of the imbalance. I hope you guys will find this helpful.
by ProjectMillionaire
1
GBP/USD Holds Below 1.2650, Signals Potential UptrendGBP/USD maintains its position below the lower boundary of the ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibiting a sideways movement above the 50 level, indicating a potential uptrend in the near future. The level at 1.2780 (static level) is considered a temporary resistance before 1.2830 (the endpoint of the latest uptrend, highest point on December 28) and 1.2860 (midpoint of the ascending channel). On the flip side, support levels are situated at 1.2750 (lower limit of the ascending channel), 1.2710-1.2700 (Simple Moving Average 100 periods (SMA), static level), and 1.2670 (SMA 200 periods). The GBP/USD pair's dynamics suggest a cautious optimism, with attention focused on how the currency pair navigates the mentioned resistance and support levels. Traders will be monitoring the RSI for potential confirmation of the anticipated uptrend, while being mindful of key technical levels for potential shifts in market sentiment.
by AdmamTrade
GBP/USD Rises to 1.2800 on Weakness in the US DollarGBP/USD has rebounded and climbed above the 1.2750 level after dipping to 1.2700 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggled to find demand in the US trading session as the latest data showed a slight slowdown in the year-on-year PPI in December. GBP/USD remains above the lower limit of the ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving flat above 50, indicating a potential upward trend. The level at 1.2780 (static level) is considered a temporary resistance before 1.2830 (end point of the latest upward trend, highest level on December 28) and 1.2860 (midpoint of the ascending channel). On the flip side, support levels are at 1.2750 (lower limit of the ascending channel), 1.2710-1.2700 (Simple Moving Average 100 periods, static level), and 1.2670 (Simple Moving Average 200 periods).
by AdmamTrade
It is expected that GBPUSD will increase slightly today and thenLet's talk about the pound and the dollar - they had quite a week! The pound was like a kid on a seesaw, going up and down against the dollar. Sometimes it looked like it was winning, but by the end of the week, it didn't close at the top. There was a holiday break for the markets on December 25, but the GBP/USD pair didn't rest much. There was some action because of the conflict in Gaza. That situation over there? Pretty intense. It's causing a lot of tension worldwide, and sadly, it's taking lives. That kind of stuff affects the currency market too. The US dollar had its own drama. People started thinking the Federal Reserve might drop interest rates, and that made the dollar less appealing. Traders got excited, thinking it could mean smoother sailing for the global economy. But then, things got a bit wobbly for the pound against the dollar. You see, the pound hit a high note at the start of Thursday but quickly lost that vibe and went back to where it started on Wednesday. Why? Well, there's a fear of high prices and a possible economic slump, which got worse because people weren't sure what the Bank of England was planning. Then, last Friday, the pound was all over the place. The news about house prices dropping more than expected probably made things more jumpy. But there were some positive things happening elsewhere that kept the pound from totally crashing. The US dollar? Well, it was a mixed bag. Some folks were willing to take risks, so it faced some challenges at different exchange rates.
Long
by carefulLion07pab