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Gbpusd-trading

GBP/USD- At make or break level of 1.4520Cable rebounded from 1.4303 to test 1.4480 levels as expected. The pair managed to cut through offers around 1.4480-1.45 and jump to a high of 1.4537 before retreating slightly to 1.4516 levels. Outlook - Inverse head and shoulder on hourly chart The neckline level is 1.4520. Breach of falling trend line on hourly + rebound seen today from trend line if followed by an hourly closing above 1.4520 now shall open doors for a rise to 1.47 (inv. H&S target). In light of falling brexit fears and latest upbeat polls - Latest IPSOS Mori #Brexit poll sees #Remain leading with 55% - An hourly closing above 1.4520 appears likely. However, note that inverse head and shoulder breakouts are more effective when the appear at the bottom of a major downtrend. Hence, a failure to take out/sustain above 1.4520 could trigger a drop that may end up pushing the pair below 1.4332.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – watch out for rebound from 1.4403UK data released a few minutes ago was upbeat given the sharp spike in average hourly earnings including bonus. Exclusive of bonus, wage growth was slightly slower-than-expected. Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped as well. The small fall in the headline claimant count measure in April was dwarfed by the upward revision to the March figure, with 8,000 claimants added to that month taking the total to a rise of 14,700. Thus, the drop in GBP/USD could be a trap. Outlook Watch out for a rebound from 1.4403-1.4410 levels as in the light of an upbeat UK data, such a rebound could translate into a convincing break above 1.4441 followed by a rally to 1.4480-1.45 levels. On the lower side, an hourly close below 1.4403 would shift risk in favor of extension of losses to 1.4368 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook – Rising trend line breached ahead of employmentResistance – 1.4441, 1.4514, 1.4549 Support – 1.44, 1.4368, 1.4330 Cable’s breach of rising trend line on the 4-hr chart (that also includes a dip below support at 1.4441) has opened doors for a re-test of 1.44 levels. Traders should watch out for a possible rebound from 1.44-1.4412 area as that could translate into a fresh rally towards 1.45 handle. However, we maintain that a clear break above 1.4549 is needed to crowd out bear participation and that is unlikely to happen if UK employment report and wage growth figures disappoint market expectations. Note – sterling has managed to stay relatively resilient despite flurry of hawkish comments from Fed officials yesterday. This makes it an ideal candidate for rally if domestic data is positive. Labor market may show signs of stress Employment report for the month of April may highlight subdued hiring as pointed out by monthly PMI numbers released earlier this month. As per – Manufacturing PMI - Job cuts were reported for the fourth successive month, with the rate of decline the fastest since February 2013. Losses were mainly centered on large-sized companies. Services PMI – Slowest rise in employment since August 2013. Meanwhile, a slight slowdown in average weekly earnings inclusive of bonus is expected. Overall, it would take a strong employment + wage growth report to ensure cable takes out resistance around 1.4549. A horribly weak figure could open doors for a fall back to near 1.4350 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlookResistance - 1.45, 1.4549, 1.4577 Support - 1.4441, 1.44, 1.4344 Cable's retreat from European session high of 1.4524 on the back of a weaker rebound in UK core CPI followed by an upbeat US data** has increased risk of the pair falling to 1.4441 - 1.4432 (hourly 200-MA) level. An hourly closing below 1.4432 (hourly 200-MA) would shift risk in favor of the pair testing sub 1.44 levels. Bears should watch put for a rebound from 1.4441-1.4432 as that could translate into a fresh attempt at 1.4533-1.4549 resistance zone. **US Data - Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in April, the biggest gains since February 2013, following a 0.1 percent advance in March. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's wage growth tracker shows US worker is enjoying their highest wage growth since 2009
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD European session outlookResistance – 1.45, 1.4549, 1.46 Support – 1.4441, 1.4388, 1.4368 Cable’s rebound from 100-SMA yesterday followed by a break above 1.4441 indicates a short-term bottom is in place at 1.4332, although bullish move would gain credence in case resistance at 1.4549 is breached. Rejection at 1.45 followed by a break below 1.4441 (falling trend line support) would once again shift momentum in favor of bears and expose 1.44. On a larger scheme of things, bullish crossover between 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA means dips are likely to be met with fresh bids. Hence, a possible drop to near 1.4441 on weaker UK data if followed by a rebound could see the pair cut through 1.45 and move towards 1.4549 levels. Nears 38.2% Fibo Cable neared 1.45 levels in Asia today, which is 38.2% Fibo level of 1.4770-1.4332. Prices witnessed an upside break from the expanding channel on hourly in the NY session and extended gains to 1.4441, above which fresh bids took control of the pair. Eyes UK CPI data Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) released last week showed inflation is expected to pick up in the medium term, given the rally in oil prices. The PMI indices released in the first week of the current month had also pointed to higher price pressures. Consequently, cost of living as represented by consumer price index (CPI) for April is seen improving. Markets may have already priced-in the same, which explains the rise in Sterling in overnight/Asian trade. Hence, a break above 1.45 and move towards resistance at 1.4549 would require a better-than-expected CPI and core CPI release. Anything below estimate or in-line with estimate leaves the doors open for a down move. Fall would be greater if the rebound in inflation is slower-than-expected.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlook - expanding channelPattern - expanding channel on hourly Resistance - 1.4384, 1.4413, 1.4441 Support - 1.4330, 1.43, 1.4235 Pair's rebound from 1.4332 ran out of steam as prices neared expanding channel resistance. The spot now trades around 1.4360. Failure to sustain above 1.4368 (38.2% Fibo) after bearish break from sideways channel on Friday coupled with falling tops formation on hourly indicates the pair could drop to 1.4330 (23.6% Fibo + channel support). A break lower would expose 1.43 On the higher side, only an hourly closing above expanding channel hurdle would shift intraday momentum in favor of bulls and expose 1.4413-1.4441 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Bears in control, eyes 23.6% Fibo support Daily Chart pattern - Rising trend line breached, RSI below 50.00 Support – 1.4333-1.4330, 1.43, 1.4275 Resistance – 1.4374, 1.44, 1.4441-1.4459 Cable’s breach of rising trend line on day end closing basis on Friday coupled with break in RSI below 50.00 indicates the bears are in control of the pair. This coupled with failure to sustain above 1.4374 means the pair could be heading lower to 1.4330 (23.6% of 1.5930-1.3835). A violation there would expose 1.43 handle. On the higher side, a clear break above 1.44 (rising trend line hurdle) is essential to weaken bulls and open doors for a test of resistance at 1.4441-1.4459.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – European session outlookResistance – 1.4441, 1.4480, 1.4514 Support – 1.4413, 1.4387, 1.4354 Formation - Sideways action continues Pair clocked a low of 1.4423 in Asia before recovering slightly to trade around 1.4438 levels. Price action yesterday once again established around 1.44 as a strong support zone. Pair’s recovery from daily lows or a possible dip to 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) followed by a recovery above daily 5-SMA at 1.4435 could translate into a quick fire move to 1.4480 (daily 10-SMA). Further upside could run out of steam near 1.4530-1.4549. On the downside, only an hourly close below 1.4387 (rising trend line support on daily) would signal continuation of the fall from the recent cyclical high of 1.4770.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlookPair hit 1.4480 as expected in the European session outlook. Looking forward, the odds of a bullish break from the sideways channel on the hourly remain high given the repeated rebound from sub 1.44 levels since the start of the week. Bullish pace would gains more traction once prices see an hourly close above channel resistance now seen at 1.4490-1.45 levels. On the lower side, only an hourly close below channel support now seen at 1.4420 would signal continuation of the downtrend that began from a high of 1.4770.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – awaits breakout...Hourly chart pattern – sideways channel Channel resistance – 1.4465 Channel support – 1.4395 A safe bet would be to wait for a breakout and play accordingly. However, if we look at the hourly chart, the odds of an upside break appears likely given the pair has finally managed to sustain above hourly 50-MA. This coupled with hourly RSI at 56.00 could result in a rally to 1.4532 (hourly 200-MA). Hence, bulls may not want to wait for an hourly closing above 1.4465 and may jump in at a first break. On the lower side, breach of 1.4395 would expose daily 100-SMA at 1.4367, under which rising trend line support at 1.4345 could be challenged.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Spikes to be viewed with cautionGBP/USD – Spikes to be viewed with caution Support – 1.4413, 1.4371, 1.4330 Resistance – 1.4444, 1.4471, 1.4536 Cable’s bearish break from the sideways range on Friday post US non-farm payrolls data reinforced bears; hence the currency could be met with offers. Failure to take out 1.4444 witnessed on the hourly chart now could trigger a break below 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) and open doors for a slide to 100-DMA support of 1.4371. On the higher side, 1.4444 needs to be breached, preferably on hourly closing basis, if resistance at 1.45-1.4536 is to be put to test.
by TipTVFinance
GBPUSD - New range establishedChart - Hourly Chart Range - 1.4541 - 1.4443 Traders should wait for a breach of the trading range rather than attempt taking sides as of now. However, in our view, a possibility of the pair seeing an upside break from the trading range are high because - The downside has been capped around 1.4443 despite horrible UK PMI figures released this week. Furthermore, a higher rise in annualised US wage growth number in April also failed to push the pair below 1.4443 levels. Nevertheless, it is essential to wait on the sidelines and not pick sides as of now.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Increased risk of re-test of 23.6% Fibo resistanceThe spot currently trades near 1.45 handle. Cable’s repeated rebound from the zone of 1.4460-1.4440 if followed by a break above hourly 50-MA levels could yield 1.4541 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770). Hourly 50-MA seen now at 1.4491 acted as a strong resistance yesterday. Plus, we also had a bearish 50-MA and 200-MA crossover earlier this week. Hence, break above hourly 50-MA would shift intraday bias in favor of the bulls. On the lower side, 1.4440 needs to be breached in which case fresh offers could take the pair down to 1.44131.4377 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD - May re-test rising trend line hurdleCable dropped to rising trend line support as expected earlier today and extended losses to 1.4613 before rising to 1.4635 levels. US session outlook Cable's breach of rising trend line has shifted balance in favor of bears. However, a rebound from support at 1.4617 followed by a break above 1.4635 could see the pair make an attempt at 1.4660 (rising trend line hurdle). Gains above 1.4660 are to be treated with caution. Meanwhile, failure at 1.4660 followed by a drop below 1.4617 or a failure in general to remain above 1.4617 would expose strong support at 1.4578 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD - Scope for further gains if UK PMI beats estimatesResistance - 1.4805, 1.4844, 1.49 Support - 1.4740, 1.47, 1.4650 GBP/USD extended gains in Europe to a high of 1.4764 levels following a bullish break from the larger falling trend line level on daily chart. The move is largely due to broad based USD selling, Markets haven't priced-in a slight uptick in the UK services PMI. Consequently, 1.48 could be put to test if the PMI blows past expectations. On the other hand, an in line with estimates figure/weaker-than-expected figure could become a reason for technical correction.
by TipTVFinance
GBPUSD - bearish move to gather pace below 1.4550Resistance - 1.4617, 1.4636, 1.4670 Support - 1.4550-1.4533, 1.4473, 1.4436 Pair's rejection at larger falling trend line along with bearish price-RSI divergence on intraday charts led to a drop as anticipated earlier today. Bearish pressure may gather pace if - Spot breaks below 1.4533 (strong support this week) or sees an hourly close below 1.4550 (hourly rising trend line support). On the other hand, a rebound from 1.4550 if followed by a rise above 1.4617 would shift risk in favor of a rise to 1.4670 (larger falling trend line hurdle).
by TipTVFinance
A look at GBPUSD ahead of US GDP releaseUS preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP is due for release today. The growth rate is seen coming-in at 0.6% compared to previous quarter’s growth rate of 1.4%. Q1 slowdown is seasonal That is a marked slowdown; however, note that Q1 is usually the weakest in the US and strongest in Eurozone. Plus, the recent slowdown is well know and pretty much priced-in. Fed’s dovish tilt following December’s rate hike was largely due to domestic slowdown amid oil prices sell-off and heightened risk from global developments. Hence, markets are unlikely to worry much unless the GDP print is weaker-than-expected. Moreover, the possibility of a better-than-expected GDP figure is high, given the goods trade deficit narrowed sharply in March. Furthermore, Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation – core personal consumption expenditure – is seen taking a big leap from Q4 2015 print of 1.3% to 1.9%. Anything just shy of estimates or higher-than-estimates could keep dollar bulls happy. Also note – Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) status quo policy today may have put a temporary end to global mad rush towards negative rates. For Fed, this is good news since other central banks standing pat makes it easy for Fed to move rates higher. This again is supportive for US dollar. GBP/USD hourly chart Pair dipped below hourly 50-MA as anticipated earlier today. GBP's failure to take out strong resistance at 1.4617 despite a solid rebound from rising trend line support after Fed statement release indicates exhaustion on the part of bulls. The spot appears poised to test rising trend line support again seen now around 1.4510 levels. Breach of rising trend line would indicate short-term trend reversal and expose critical support around 1.4380 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD finds support at 50% Fibo ahead of Fed Resistance – 1.4533, 1.4480, 1.4474 Support  – 1.4578, 1.4617-1.4636 Cable’s bearish break from rising channel on hourly timeframe led to a drop to hourly 50-MA as anticipated earlier today. Spot found support at 1.4533 (50% of 1.4669-1.3835). Stage is set for a drop further to rising trend line support at 1.4480-1.4474 if Fed turns hawkish. Note – Neutral assessment of risks to US economic outlook is likely to be read as hawkish. On the higher side, fresh buying is likely to be seen above 1.4636 levels.
by TipTVFinance
FOMC meeting Scenario – Not really a ‘live event’ unless....It appears there is little room for Fed to move rates before December. Raising rates a day or two ahead of UK referendum is a risk; hence June rate hike hint may not come through Fed statement today. Nevertheless, if Fed intends to move rates in June, then the telegraphing process has to begin now and thus a hint could be given through April statement. The probability of a rate hike today is close to zero. Thus, we have two main scenarios - * Fed keeps dovish bias and stays silent regarding timing of next rate hike * Fed hints at a June rate hike Scenario – I – GBP/USD could test 1.47 levels GBP is on the front foot as recent polls showed a shift in favor of EU membership. Plus, a sharp rise in ‘undecided’ category is seen shifting to “in” vote ahead as people usually prefer status quo (‘in’ vote) when the consequences of a change are unclear. Hence, GBP shorts are being squared off. The bird is trading around 1.4580 after having clocked a high of 1.4639 levels in Tuesday’s NY session. * Dovish Fed could help the pair test offers around 1.47 levels. * Moreover, the pair may witness day end closing above 1.4680 (falling trend line), which would add credence to the recent bullish move and signal trend reversal on larger scheme of things. Other key gainers could be – Gold – may challenge offers around $1270-1280 levels EUR/USD – could revisit 1.1376-1.14 handle Scenario – II – One half of a recipe for further USD/JPY rally Speculation that BOJ may introduce negative rates on loans, tweak QE on Thursday led to a sell-off in Yen and a rise in USD/JPY to 111.88 levels. The bird currently trades around 111.20 levels. Whether or not BOJ under delivers or over delivers remains to be seen. However, action in the pair also depends on Fed stance. Hint at June rate hike could help USD/JPY break above 50-DMA ahead of BOJ rate decision Moreover, above 50-DMA, the channel resistance around 112.80 stands exposed The dirty work of taking the pair over and above 112.80 then depends on BOJ Other key losers could be – Gold – may finally see head and shoulder breakout (neckline around $1220), although mid-term bullish invalidation is seen only below $1190 levels EUR/USD – the bird has had a tough time extending/sustaining gains above 1.13 off late and thus may see a quick fire drop to 1.12 levels NZD/USD – 0.6981 is a strong resistance that has capped recovery from Friday’s low of 0.6835. June rate hike hint could see spot drift lower to 50-DMA at 0.6779
by TipTVFinance