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Gbpusd-trading

GBP/USD outlook – Falling trend line breached ahead of UK retailFalling Brexit risks and mixed UK employment and labor data released yesterday pushed GBP/USD pair to an intraday high of 1.4634 (just short of 1.4636 (38.2% of 5930-13835) before hawkish Fed minutes pushed the currency back to 1.4597 levels. Nevertheless, the daily closing at 1.4597 means a larger falling trend line drawn from Aug 25 high and Nov 2 high has been breached. The focus today is on the UK retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.7% rebound in April. That amounts to a annualized growth of 2%. Core is seen rising 0.6% m/m and 2.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales could miss estimates A leading indicator - monthly Retail Sales Monitor (RSM) from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG – released earlier this month showed sales in April fell on a like-for-like basis compared to last year. Like-for-like sales fell 0.9% in April on a year earlier, the biggest drop since last August following a drop of 0.7% in March. Cold weather affected sales of spring and summer clothing and cautious shoppers reduced spending. Another point worth noting is wage growth excluding bonus slowed down in April and that too could have forced consumers to spend less. Consequently, the official retail sales may miss estimates. However, it is worth noting that - Unlike the official retail measure, the BRC is not calendar adjusted and so likely was depressed by the shift in the timing of Easter. Technicals – Poised for gains Pair’s bullish break from larger falling trend line coupled with bullish daily RSI only adds credence to bullish 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA bullish crossover seen in late April and indicates scope for further gains towards 1.47 levels. On the way higher, 1.4636 could act as a strong hurdle, which needs to be breached. A strong rebound in retail sales could help pair cut through 1.4636 and test supply around 1.47 handle. Bears need to watch out for a rebound from (sub) 1.4548 levels followed by break above 1.4606 as that would signal a possible break above 1.4636 and rally to 1.47 handle. On the lower side, only an hourly close below 1.4548 could signal intraday bullish invalidation and expose 1.45 handle. Given the bullish break on charts, it would take a horribly weak retail sales figure to kill the bullish momentum.
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GBP/USD- At make or break level of 1.4520Cable rebounded from 1.4303 to test 1.4480 levels as expected. The pair managed to cut through offers around 1.4480-1.45 and jump to a high of 1.4537 before retreating slightly to 1.4516 levels. Outlook - Inverse head and shoulder on hourly chart The neckline level is 1.4520. Breach of falling trend line on hourly + rebound seen today from trend line if followed by an hourly closing above 1.4520 now shall open doors for a rise to 1.47 (inv. H&S target). In light of falling brexit fears and latest upbeat polls - Latest IPSOS Mori #Brexit poll sees #Remain leading with 55% - An hourly closing above 1.4520 appears likely. However, note that inverse head and shoulder breakouts are more effective when the appear at the bottom of a major downtrend. Hence, a failure to take out/sustain above 1.4520 could trigger a drop that may end up pushing the pair below 1.4332.
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GBP/USD – watch out for rebound from 1.4403UK data released a few minutes ago was upbeat given the sharp spike in average hourly earnings including bonus. Exclusive of bonus, wage growth was slightly slower-than-expected. Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped as well. The small fall in the headline claimant count measure in April was dwarfed by the upward revision to the March figure, with 8,000 claimants added to that month taking the total to a rise of 14,700. Thus, the drop in GBP/USD could be a trap. Outlook Watch out for a rebound from 1.4403-1.4410 levels as in the light of an upbeat UK data, such a rebound could translate into a convincing break above 1.4441 followed by a rally to 1.4480-1.45 levels. On the lower side, an hourly close below 1.4403 would shift risk in favor of extension of losses to 1.4368 levels.
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GBP/USD outlook – Rising trend line breached ahead of employmentResistance – 1.4441, 1.4514, 1.4549 Support – 1.44, 1.4368, 1.4330 Cable’s breach of rising trend line on the 4-hr chart (that also includes a dip below support at 1.4441) has opened doors for a re-test of 1.44 levels. Traders should watch out for a possible rebound from 1.44-1.4412 area as that could translate into a fresh rally towards 1.45 handle. However, we maintain that a clear break above 1.4549 is needed to crowd out bear participation and that is unlikely to happen if UK employment report and wage growth figures disappoint market expectations. Note – sterling has managed to stay relatively resilient despite flurry of hawkish comments from Fed officials yesterday. This makes it an ideal candidate for rally if domestic data is positive. Labor market may show signs of stress Employment report for the month of April may highlight subdued hiring as pointed out by monthly PMI numbers released earlier this month. As per – Manufacturing PMI - Job cuts were reported for the fourth successive month, with the rate of decline the fastest since February 2013. Losses were mainly centered on large-sized companies. Services PMI – Slowest rise in employment since August 2013. Meanwhile, a slight slowdown in average weekly earnings inclusive of bonus is expected. Overall, it would take a strong employment + wage growth report to ensure cable takes out resistance around 1.4549. A horribly weak figure could open doors for a fall back to near 1.4350 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlookResistance - 1.45, 1.4549, 1.4577 Support - 1.4441, 1.44, 1.4344 Cable's retreat from European session high of 1.4524 on the back of a weaker rebound in UK core CPI followed by an upbeat US data** has increased risk of the pair falling to 1.4441 - 1.4432 (hourly 200-MA) level. An hourly closing below 1.4432 (hourly 200-MA) would shift risk in favor of the pair testing sub 1.44 levels. Bears should watch put for a rebound from 1.4441-1.4432 as that could translate into a fresh attempt at 1.4533-1.4549 resistance zone. **US Data - Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in April, the biggest gains since February 2013, following a 0.1 percent advance in March. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's wage growth tracker shows US worker is enjoying their highest wage growth since 2009
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GBP/USD European session outlookResistance – 1.45, 1.4549, 1.46 Support – 1.4441, 1.4388, 1.4368 Cable’s rebound from 100-SMA yesterday followed by a break above 1.4441 indicates a short-term bottom is in place at 1.4332, although bullish move would gain credence in case resistance at 1.4549 is breached. Rejection at 1.45 followed by a break below 1.4441 (falling trend line support) would once again shift momentum in favor of bears and expose 1.44. On a larger scheme of things, bullish crossover between 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA means dips are likely to be met with fresh bids. Hence, a possible drop to near 1.4441 on weaker UK data if followed by a rebound could see the pair cut through 1.45 and move towards 1.4549 levels. Nears 38.2% Fibo Cable neared 1.45 levels in Asia today, which is 38.2% Fibo level of 1.4770-1.4332. Prices witnessed an upside break from the expanding channel on hourly in the NY session and extended gains to 1.4441, above which fresh bids took control of the pair. Eyes UK CPI data Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) released last week showed inflation is expected to pick up in the medium term, given the rally in oil prices. The PMI indices released in the first week of the current month had also pointed to higher price pressures. Consequently, cost of living as represented by consumer price index (CPI) for April is seen improving. Markets may have already priced-in the same, which explains the rise in Sterling in overnight/Asian trade. Hence, a break above 1.45 and move towards resistance at 1.4549 would require a better-than-expected CPI and core CPI release. Anything below estimate or in-line with estimate leaves the doors open for a down move. Fall would be greater if the rebound in inflation is slower-than-expected.
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GBP/USD US session outlook - expanding channelPattern - expanding channel on hourly Resistance - 1.4384, 1.4413, 1.4441 Support - 1.4330, 1.43, 1.4235 Pair's rebound from 1.4332 ran out of steam as prices neared expanding channel resistance. The spot now trades around 1.4360. Failure to sustain above 1.4368 (38.2% Fibo) after bearish break from sideways channel on Friday coupled with falling tops formation on hourly indicates the pair could drop to 1.4330 (23.6% Fibo + channel support). A break lower would expose 1.43 On the higher side, only an hourly closing above expanding channel hurdle would shift intraday momentum in favor of bulls and expose 1.4413-1.4441 levels.
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GBP/USD – Bears in control, eyes 23.6% Fibo support Daily Chart pattern - Rising trend line breached, RSI below 50.00 Support – 1.4333-1.4330, 1.43, 1.4275 Resistance – 1.4374, 1.44, 1.4441-1.4459 Cable’s breach of rising trend line on day end closing basis on Friday coupled with break in RSI below 50.00 indicates the bears are in control of the pair. This coupled with failure to sustain above 1.4374 means the pair could be heading lower to 1.4330 (23.6% of 1.5930-1.3835). A violation there would expose 1.43 handle. On the higher side, a clear break above 1.44 (rising trend line hurdle) is essential to weaken bulls and open doors for a test of resistance at 1.4441-1.4459.
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GBP/USD – European session outlookResistance – 1.4441, 1.4480, 1.4514 Support – 1.4413, 1.4387, 1.4354 Formation - Sideways action continues Pair clocked a low of 1.4423 in Asia before recovering slightly to trade around 1.4438 levels. Price action yesterday once again established around 1.44 as a strong support zone. Pair’s recovery from daily lows or a possible dip to 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) followed by a recovery above daily 5-SMA at 1.4435 could translate into a quick fire move to 1.4480 (daily 10-SMA). Further upside could run out of steam near 1.4530-1.4549. On the downside, only an hourly close below 1.4387 (rising trend line support on daily) would signal continuation of the fall from the recent cyclical high of 1.4770.
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GBP/USD US session outlookPair hit 1.4480 as expected in the European session outlook. Looking forward, the odds of a bullish break from the sideways channel on the hourly remain high given the repeated rebound from sub 1.44 levels since the start of the week. Bullish pace would gains more traction once prices see an hourly close above channel resistance now seen at 1.4490-1.45 levels. On the lower side, only an hourly close below channel support now seen at 1.4420 would signal continuation of the downtrend that began from a high of 1.4770.
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GBP/USD – awaits breakout...Hourly chart pattern – sideways channel Channel resistance – 1.4465 Channel support – 1.4395 A safe bet would be to wait for a breakout and play accordingly. However, if we look at the hourly chart, the odds of an upside break appears likely given the pair has finally managed to sustain above hourly 50-MA. This coupled with hourly RSI at 56.00 could result in a rally to 1.4532 (hourly 200-MA). Hence, bulls may not want to wait for an hourly closing above 1.4465 and may jump in at a first break. On the lower side, breach of 1.4395 would expose daily 100-SMA at 1.4367, under which rising trend line support at 1.4345 could be challenged.
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GBP/USD – Spikes to be viewed with cautionGBP/USD – Spikes to be viewed with caution Support – 1.4413, 1.4371, 1.4330 Resistance – 1.4444, 1.4471, 1.4536 Cable’s bearish break from the sideways range on Friday post US non-farm payrolls data reinforced bears; hence the currency could be met with offers. Failure to take out 1.4444 witnessed on the hourly chart now could trigger a break below 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) and open doors for a slide to 100-DMA support of 1.4371. On the higher side, 1.4444 needs to be breached, preferably on hourly closing basis, if resistance at 1.45-1.4536 is to be put to test.
by TipTVFinance
GBPUSD - New range establishedChart - Hourly Chart Range - 1.4541 - 1.4443 Traders should wait for a breach of the trading range rather than attempt taking sides as of now. However, in our view, a possibility of the pair seeing an upside break from the trading range are high because - The downside has been capped around 1.4443 despite horrible UK PMI figures released this week. Furthermore, a higher rise in annualised US wage growth number in April also failed to push the pair below 1.4443 levels. Nevertheless, it is essential to wait on the sidelines and not pick sides as of now.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Increased risk of re-test of 23.6% Fibo resistanceThe spot currently trades near 1.45 handle. Cable’s repeated rebound from the zone of 1.4460-1.4440 if followed by a break above hourly 50-MA levels could yield 1.4541 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770). Hourly 50-MA seen now at 1.4491 acted as a strong resistance yesterday. Plus, we also had a bearish 50-MA and 200-MA crossover earlier this week. Hence, break above hourly 50-MA would shift intraday bias in favor of the bulls. On the lower side, 1.4440 needs to be breached in which case fresh offers could take the pair down to 1.44131.4377 levels.
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GBP/USD - May re-test rising trend line hurdleCable dropped to rising trend line support as expected earlier today and extended losses to 1.4613 before rising to 1.4635 levels. US session outlook Cable's breach of rising trend line has shifted balance in favor of bears. However, a rebound from support at 1.4617 followed by a break above 1.4635 could see the pair make an attempt at 1.4660 (rising trend line hurdle). Gains above 1.4660 are to be treated with caution. Meanwhile, failure at 1.4660 followed by a drop below 1.4617 or a failure in general to remain above 1.4617 would expose strong support at 1.4578 levels.
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GBP/USD - Scope for further gains if UK PMI beats estimatesResistance - 1.4805, 1.4844, 1.49 Support - 1.4740, 1.47, 1.4650 GBP/USD extended gains in Europe to a high of 1.4764 levels following a bullish break from the larger falling trend line level on daily chart. The move is largely due to broad based USD selling, Markets haven't priced-in a slight uptick in the UK services PMI. Consequently, 1.48 could be put to test if the PMI blows past expectations. On the other hand, an in line with estimates figure/weaker-than-expected figure could become a reason for technical correction.
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GBPUSD - bearish move to gather pace below 1.4550Resistance - 1.4617, 1.4636, 1.4670 Support - 1.4550-1.4533, 1.4473, 1.4436 Pair's rejection at larger falling trend line along with bearish price-RSI divergence on intraday charts led to a drop as anticipated earlier today. Bearish pressure may gather pace if - Spot breaks below 1.4533 (strong support this week) or sees an hourly close below 1.4550 (hourly rising trend line support). On the other hand, a rebound from 1.4550 if followed by a rise above 1.4617 would shift risk in favor of a rise to 1.4670 (larger falling trend line hurdle).
by TipTVFinance