GBP/USD - sideways action to continuePair's repeated failure to stay below 1.2775 (Dec 6 high) despite the retreat from 1.2903 (last week's high) coupled with overstretched 5-DMA and 10-DMA suggests the sideways action is likely to continue.
The pair is waiting for the short-term averages to catch up with the price action before extending the rally.
Only a daily close below 1.2775 would prolong the consolidation and increase the odds of a correction.
Gbpusd-trading
UK retail sales preview: What to expect of GBPUSD?UK consumer spending as represented by the retail sales dropped 0.5% in March, which amounts to 3.8% rise in the annualized terms. The core number is also seen dropping 0.5%, which would be bad news.
Retail sales could fall more than expected-
The odds of a weaker-than-expected retail sales appear high if we take into account the weakness in spending as shown by the lead indicators released earlier this month-
· A survey by the payment company Visa released earlier this month showed Consumer spending in the UK grew at the slowest pace in more than three years in the first three months of 2017. Inflation was the culprit, the survey showed.
· The British Retail Consortium (BRC) data released on Apr 10 showed the retail sales fell 1% as opposed to the expected drop of 0.5%. Again, it was the rising inflation.
Both lead indicators clearly suggest the rising cost of living is having an undesirable impact on the spending. It wouldn’t be a surprise for you if the retail sales print misses estimates.
What would happen to the Pound?
“The pound is still the most hated currency”, said by Nicole Elliot, during her interview with Tip TV on Thursday. We cannot agree more, but that does not mean the quid cannot extend the rally. In fact the sentiment/positioning is at extreme and that always points to a potential for sharp reaction in the opposite chart.
The spot has recently breached the key resistance at 1.2640 (23.6% of Brexit sell-off) and is trading above 1.2840. It looks set to revisit 1.29 and possibly to 1.30 levels if the retail sales prints better-than-estimates.
Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected retail sales figure could push the spot back to 1.2640. However, only a daily close below the same would signal bullish invalidation.
How high can GBP/USD fly?The higher low formation since bottoming out in October 2016 followed by a sharp rise above 1.2774 (Dec high), coupled with the breach of the downtrend on the monthly RSI suggests the rally could be extended to a stiff resistance around 1.3094 (38.2% of 1.5019-1.1905) and 1.3152 (23.6% of 1.71915-1.1905). The 5-MA on the monthly chart has bottomed out as well.
Only a weekly close below 1.2640 would suggest bullish invalidation.
GBP/USD – trend line resistance at 1.25Rebound from the 50-DMA on the back of a strong UK service sector PMI data if followed by a daily close above 1.25 (psychological support + trend line resistance) would open doors for a revisit to 1.2615 levels.
On the downside, only a daily close below 50-DMA would signal continuation of the retreat from 1.2615 levels.
GBP/USD could peep above 1.25Pair's reversal from the low of 1.2377 (near descending trend line support) followed by a move back above the 50-DMA and 100-DMA level of 1.2419 suggests the retreat from the high of 1.2616 has ended and the spot could revisit 1.25 levels.
Moreover, Pound is likely to cheer Brexit clarity.
On the downside, only a daily close back inside the falling channel would signal trend reversal
GBP/USD intraday outlookFailure to hold above 1.25 despite and a retreat to 1.2473 (near 5-DM support) despite Thursday’s bullish daily close above 1.25 coupled with the breach of the rising trend line on the hourly chart suggests potential for an intraday dip to 1.2450.
Watch for an hourly close back above trend line as that would add credence to the rebound from near 5-DMA support and open doors for a revisit to 1.2531 and possibly to 1.2560
Pound soars in early Europe, needs to end above 10-DMACable's recovery from Tuesday's low of 1.2109 to 1.2220 today if followed by a day end close today above the 10-DMA level of 1.2208 would add credence to the signs of turnaround in the MACD and open doors for a rally to 1.2346 (Feb 7 low).
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2108 would revive bearish view.
GBP/USD outlook - Neutral as long as support at 1.2132 holdsDespite the rejection at the 10-DMA in early Asia and a subsequent drop to 1.2153, the outlook remains neutral; given the strong support around 1.2132 still holds. The daily MACD shows loss of bearish momentum as well.
Only a daily close below 1.2132 would open doors for a drop to 1.2040.
On the higher side, a daily close above the 10-DMA would signal the spot has bottomed out.
GBP/USD – Sideways to bearish move likelyFriday’s recovery from the low of 1.2214 to 1.2293 suggests the decline from 1.2569 (Feb 24 high) has run out of steam and the spot could go sideways before resuming the downtrend towards 1.2107 (Jan 10 low).
On the higher side, only a daily close above 1.2346 would signal short-term bearish invalidation.
GBP/USD eyes 1.22Pair daily close yesterday below 1.2346 followed by a drop to 1.2270 coupled with the bearish RSI and a bearish crossover on the DMI suggests the retreat from the recent high of 1.2569 could be extended to 1.22 levels by Friday's European/early US session.
Profit taking could come-in ahead of the weekend, hence significant losses below 1.22 are unlikely.
Compressing Symmetrical Triangle - GBPUSDFor the interim, I am Neutral on this pair until I see how price action reacts upon the approach of the Up-Trend Trendline. If it respects the Up-Trend Trendline, then I will look for longs towards Down-Trend Trendline, but it if manages to break the Up-Trend Trendline, upon retest look for possible short into supply zone which is also a significant support level also lining up with 61.8% extension fib level.
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GBP/USD- Sell the daily close below 50-DMAThe selling interest have repeatedly run out of steam below 50-DMA since January 31.
We did have a daily close below 50-DMA on Feb 17, but that didn’t work out. So why would it work this time…?
Check out the DMI indicator. We have a bearish crossover, which didn’t exist on Feb 17. Furthermore, talk of Scottish referendum is gathering pace.
Thus, a daily close below 50-DMA could yield a sell-off to 1.2121 (lower bollinger band).
GBP/USD – Bullish above 1.2582Sharp recovery from below 50-DMA levels on Wednesday followed by a rise to 1.25 levels has demoralized bears, although only a break above 1.2582 (Feb 9 high) would add credence to the rebound from 1.2384 and open doors for 1.2706 (Feb 2 high). On the downside, a daily close below 5-DMA would be bad sign for the bulls.
GBP/USD outlookFriday’s rebound from 50-DMA if followed by a daily close today above 1.2582 would open the doors to 1.2706-1.2773 (upper Bol Band). The ADX has been flat lined for quite some time…hence the odds of the trend gathering pace are high. A move higher to 1.27 could also yield a bullish crossover on the DMI.
On the downside, a daily close below 50-DMA would add credence to bearish DMI, push RSI below 50 and thus could yield a sell-off to 1.2255 (Jan 18 low).
GBP/USD sliding trend line to offer supportThe retreat from 1.2546 (today’s high) looks like a usual shakeout following a breakout. The spot breached the descending trend line yesterday.
A rebound from around the trend line support appears likely, given the bullish daily RSI and upward sloping ST MAs – 5 & 10.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2250 would revive bearishness.
GBP/USD – Chipping away at the trend line resistanceFriday’s bullish hammer candle followed by a break above 1.2416 (Jan 17 high) in the late Asian session today suggests the spot could take out the sliding trend line resistance 1.2445.
A daily close above 1.2445 would open the doors for a sustained rally to 1.2550 (downward sloping 100-DMA) and possibly to 1.26 levels.
Bearish scenario – Failure at the trend line hurdle followed by a break below Thursday’s low of 1.2253 could yield a sell-off to 1.20 levels.
GBP/USD – Recovery to 1.24 cannot be ruled outCable’s sharp recover from the low of 1.2034 on Wednesday followed by a move higher to 1.2250 levels today in the wake of an oversold monthly RSI suggests a potential for an extended rally to 1.24 handle.
Also note, the area below 1.21 handle acted as a strong buyers’ zone throughout October 2016. The pair’s rebound from 1.2034 yesterday only adds credence to sub 1.21 area as strong support zone.
On the lower side, only a daily close below 1.20 would revive bearishness.