GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory.
At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend.
Key Points:
Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure).
Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone.
Trade Plan:
- Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement.
- Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.).
- Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure.
- Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction.
Targets:
First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips)
Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips)
Summary:
Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure.
See our past GBPUSD setups below:
Swing 1:
Swing 2:
Swing 3:
GBPUSD
EURUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD is currently in a critical retesting phase after a strong bullish breakout. Price action is finding solid support around the 1.1200–1.1300 zone, an area that has previously acted as major resistance. As long as this zone holds, I expect a healthy bullish bounce that could fuel a continuation toward the 1.1800 level. Market structure remains bullish, and this pullback seems more like a technical correction before the next rally.
Fundamentally, the euro is being supported by a weaker US dollar sentiment due to growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. At the same time, improving Eurozone data and stabilizing inflation pressures are adding positive momentum to the EURUSD pair. If the US GDP numbers and inflation figures continue to disappoint, we could see further downside pressure on the dollar, pushing EURUSD higher.
Technically, the weekly chart shows a clean breakout from a long-term consolidation, and now the price is retesting the broken resistance as new support. The structure aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation setup. A strong bullish candle from this zone would be a major confirmation for buyers to target 1.1800 in the coming weeks.
In my view, EURUSD remains one of the strongest setups on the forex board, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor key economic releases like US PCE data and Eurozone CPI, as they will drive volatility and direction. I stay bullish above the 1.1200 level and see excellent risk-reward potential in this trade idea.
GBPUSD Will Grow! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 1.329.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.342 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Incoming sells?! AUDCAD bearish sentiment Good day traders, I’m back with another setup on AudCad. Before I go into the thinking behind this setup I’d like to remind you that on the higher TF’s we still very much bearish that’s is my reasoning behind the bearish sentiment.
On Tuesday we saw price close lower to give us our high of the week but price has been disrespecting the high since Wednesday but failing to close above that high showing strength lower(Friday bearish candle). Going into the new week I believe we can expect price to keep disrespecting the high because we believe that CAD is gonna be weak but keeping the overall direction in mind(bearish) we do not wanna see price closing higher than the Tuesday’s high of the day.
4H we have shifted structure lower but price is still trading in the premium area, should price not fall below the low of previous week than we can expect manipulation higher to fill the FVG on the Weekly before continuing lower.
GBPUSD Trade RecapFX:GBPUSD
Friday trade recap on GBPJPY.
📌 The rationale behind taking this trade was firstly, the positive GBP news for Retail Sales of actual 0.4%, greater than the -0.3% forecast.
📌 Secondly, the price tapped into the strong 4H demand zone, while also sweeping the Asian lows.
📌 The news took place on 6 am UTC, while there were no sudden spikes in price during 6 am, we can see a 30 pips price push few minutes after the news, signaling the market price reacting to the news.
📌 Price got rejected twice from the 15 minutes bearish shooting star, creating a strong short term resistance zone.
📌 Since the bias is short term bullish, I waited for a break and retest of the trendline, as soon as price failed to close below the zone, I immediately place buys.
📌 Price Eventually hit TP at a 1:2.46% risk to reward trade but closed at +1.9% to avoid the subsequent red news.
3min chart
UK retail sales beat forecast, pound edges lowerThe British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3214, down 0.17% on the day.
UK retail sales were a ray of sunshine in March. Monthly, retail sales rose 0.4%, beating the market estimate of -0.4% but below the revised 0.7% increase in February. Clothing sales showed strong growth as shoppers took advantage of the sunny weather.
Annualized, retail sales rose 2.6% from a revised 1.8% gain in February and above the market estimate of 1.8%. This was the strongest gain in three months.
The strong retail sales was a pleasant surprise but the consumer economy remains fragile. The GfK consumer confidence index deteriorated in April to -23 from -19 and below the market estimate of -22. This was the lowest level since November 2023.
Consumers are concerned over the rising cost of living and worsening global trade tensions which has been fuelled by President Trump's tariffs. The GfK survey found that consumers are anxious that inflation will continue to rise due to the US tariffs.
The Bank of England is following trade tensions carefully as well. On Thursday, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the BoE was "quite focused on the growth shock" for the UK from the tariffs, although he said the UK was not close to a recession. If the global trade war intensifies, it will weigh on UK growth but will also push inflation lower.
President Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation and consumers are anxious that inflation will rise sharply. The UoM consumer inflation expectations index jumped to 6.7% in the initial April release, up from 5.0% in March. Today's final release is expected to confirm this figure, which would mark the highest level since Nov. 1981.
GBPUSD(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June
②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3311
Support and resistance levels:
1.3411
1.3374
1.3350
1.3274
1.3248
1.3211
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3350, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3374
If the price breaks through 1.3311, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3274
GBPUSD 1H Analysis – ForexCity SignalWe’ve entered a critical zone on GBPUSD.
Price formed a Higher High (HH) and later shifted structure with a bearish CHoCH
A new Lower High (LH) was printed, confirming bearish intent
But recently, bulls stepped in to create a Higher Low (HL)
Now price is compressed between LH & HL, meaning:
❗ One side is about to get liquidated. The next move will be impulsive.
🟢 Buy Scenario (If Bulls Win)
🔔 BUY STOP @ 1.33480
TP1: 1.33680
TP2: 1.33980
TP3: 1.34480
SL: 1.33080 (max 40 pips)
Reason:
Break of LH confirms buyers are back in control. This would be a bullish CHoCH reclaim.
🔴 Sell Scenario (If Bears Continue)
🔔 SELL STOP @ 1.32800
TP1: 1.32600
TP2: 1.32300
TP3: 1.31800
SL: 1.33300 (max 50 pips)
Reason:
A break below HL confirms bearish continuation after structure shift. This is the safer Smart Money entry.
📌 Conclusion:
This is a classic SMC compression zone.
Let the market break the range—then ride with conviction.
No guessing. Just precision.
Wait. Watch. Execute.
→ Patience = Power.
XAU/USD: Bull or Bear? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that yesterday, right after posting the analysis, the price quickly hit the first target at $3307, then experienced a bounce and rallied to the $3369 supply zone. From there, gold faced more downward pressure and eventually reached the targets at $3303, $3297, and nearly $3285.
Currently, gold is trading around $3291, and if $3285 is broken, we could expect further downside toward levels below $3259.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
SHORT.....SGU @ 1.3317just executed short.... SGU @ 1.3317
💯 solid setup...watch this tank 📉
expecting min DD max RRR till Fri NYC...
TP1 and SL as shown until final TP2 projected by system.
Sorry, alert is not based on TA or BoS or OB or ICT....rather based on multi-system confluence convergence and confirmations.... now system beeping let's test n see 🙈
appreciate any feedback for continuous improvement.
GBP Rebounds on Retail Sales – But USD Still in Control📌 GBP Bounces on Strong Retail Sales, But USD Strength Keeps Pressure On 💷📉
The British Pound (GBP) rebounded on Friday after UK Retail Sales data surprised to the upside. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales rose by 0.4% in March, beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. On a yearly basis, growth accelerated to 2.6%, outpacing the forecast of 1.8%.
However, despite the positive data, traders remain confident the Bank of England (BoE) may still cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25% in the May meeting, due to persistent global uncertainties and softer inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gained ground across the board as trade tensions between the US and China appeared to ease. Durable Goods Orders in the US jumped by 9.2% in March — a clear sign of business confidence and policy impact.
📊 Technical Outlook – GBP/USD
GBP/USD briefly recovered from an intraday low of 1.3280 but remains under pressure near key resistance.
On the upside, the psychological barrier at 1.3500 remains a major hurdle.
To the downside, the April 3rd high around 1.3200 now acts as strong support.
💼 Trading Plan
🟢 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 1.32500
SL: 1.32000
TP: 1.33300
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.34180
SL: 1.34700
TP: 1.33500
📌 Stay alert ahead of key BoE guidance and further US-China headlines — volatility may increase as we head into May.
GBPUSD Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.330.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.319 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W17 D25 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W17 D25 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Sterling Keeps Flat Amid Trade WatchThe British pound held steady near 1.3290 on Friday morning, maintaining levels seen in the previous session. The currency remained flat in recent days, supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump and largely neutral PMI data. Upcoming economic releases and developments in the US-China trade dispute are expected to play a key role in shaping the pair’s direction next week.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 25, 2025 GBPUSDAn event to watch out for today:
11:00 EET. CHF - The head of the SNB Martin Schlegel will deliver a speech
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is pulling back from its recent gains, hovering around 1.3290 during the Asian session on Friday. The pullback comes amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD), helped by a Bloomberg report that China may suspend a 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment, ethane and aircraft leasing.
Sources familiar with the matter said officials are particularly scrutinising the possibility of removing tariffs on aircraft leasing. China's Ministry of Finance and General Administration of Customs have not yet commented. Further support for the dollar comes from optimism around trade talks with the US. Reuters reports progress in preliminary talks with key Asian allies, including South Korea and Japan.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is recovering previous losses and is trading near 99.80. However, the dollar faced headwinds after mixed labour market data. The US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims rose to 222,000 for the week ended April 19, slightly above expectations, while jobless claims fell 37,000 to 1.841 million for the week ended April 12.
In the United Kingdom (UK), the GfK consumer confidence index fell to -23 in April - its lowest level since November 2023 - amid rising living costs and growing concerns about global trade, missing forecasts of -22. Traders now await UK retail sales data and a final reading of the US consumer sentiment index from Michigan later in the North American session.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3270, SL 1.3300, TP 1.3170
GBPUSD | Short-Term Resistance Forming – Stay Sharp for ReactionGBPUSD has been showing strength lately due to the UK’s early acknowledgment of recession risks and a more transparent economic approach. However, in the short term, we are now approaching a resistance zone that traders should pay close attention to.
🟥 Resistance Zone (Short-Term)
The current red zone overhead has historically acted as a supply area — we’ve seen hesitation and sell pressure emerge here before. If price approaches this area again, it’s important not to chase longs blindly. This level could lead to profit-taking or even a temporary reversal.
📌 What You Can Do:
If you're short-biased, look for lower timeframe weakness in this zone (e.g., rejection candles, market structure shifts) before jumping in.
If you're long-biased, wait to see if this resistance gets reclaimed with strength. Only then consider it a continuation signal — otherwise, it’s best to stay patient.
Always pair your setups with proper confirmation. You already know I never insist on an idea when price action tells another story. Confirmation is key.
Adaptability is your edge. Don’t fight the market — flow with it, and let the chart reveal your edge.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below:
🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry
🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move
🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month
💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace
🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge
📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone
🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential
🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade
🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones
🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum
🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs
🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity
🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked
🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer
🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan
⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One
💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas
🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence
🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results
🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB
📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction
🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction
📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely
📊 XNOUSDT %80 Reaction with a Simple Blue Box!
📊 BELUSDT Amazing %120 Reaction!
I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
GBPUSD Trade SetupA buy position has been placed on the GBP/USD pair at 1.30369, targeting an ambitious level of 1.39096.
This setup reflects a bullish sentiment, anticipating a strong recovery in the British Pound against the US Dollar.
Recent macroeconomic indicators suggest improving conditions in the UK economy, which could support further upward movement.
Technical analysis shows that the pair is holding above key support levels, indicating sustained buying interest.
If momentum continues, the price may gradually ascend toward the 1.39096 target in the coming weeks.
A potential breakout above intermediate resistance zones could further confirm the bullish trend.
Market sentiment also favors the Pound, especially amid speculation about a more cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.
Volatility remains a factor, so proper risk management and stop-loss placement are essential.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming data releases, such as GDP figures and central bank announcements.
Overall, this trade setup offers a promising risk-to-reward ratio, backed by both technical strength and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
GBP/USD Hourly Analysis & Scalping Perspective 4/24 10:37pmI’m looking at GBP/USD on the hourly timeframe, where price is currently hovering around 1.33074, showing mild volatility but respecting key levels. Here’s what I see:
Market Structure & Key Zones:
Resistance at 1.33350-1.33490 has been holding firm, with multiple failed breakout attempts. If buyers can finally push through, we might see momentum extend toward 1.33700.
Support at 1.32850-1.32900 has been a demand zone, where price has reacted in the past—this could be an area of institutional absorption before a reversal.
Price is consolidating between 1.33050-1.33350, suggesting indecision and potential liquidity traps.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (1-hour): 21.69 → Deep in oversold territory, which suggests price could be setting up for a reversal.
CCI (1-hour): -184.71 → Extreme bearish pressure—sellers are in control, but exhaustion may come soon.
Stochastic RSI (1-hour): 0.0 → Completely oversold, signaling a possible bottom formation.
Directional Strength:
ADX (1-hour): 26.10 → Moderate trend strength, meaning price isn’t ranging but also isn’t aggressively trending.
DX (1-hour): 69.10 → Strong directional push, supporting the current bearish move.
Scalping Plan:
Bullish Breakout: If price successfully breaks 1.33490, the next upside target is 1.33700, potentially 1.34000 if buyers hold control.
Bearish Play: If price fails 1.33050, sellers could take control and push it toward 1.32850-1.32900.
Liquidity Trap Setup: A sweep below 1.32850, followed by a sharp reclaim, could signal a fakeout before a reversal.
Right now, I’m closely watching how price reacts around 1.33050—if buyers step in aggressively, a scalp toward 1.33350 could be viable. However, if momentum stays weak and price fails to hold above 1.33050, it’s likely we’re heading into deeper support zones near 1.32850 before institutions re-enter the market.
I’d like to check order flow and volume profile next to see if liquidity is building up at these key zones. That would help confirm whether buyers are genuinely absorbing sell pressure or if we’re in for another wave down before a reversal.
GBP/USD: The Pound Rebounds Back Above 1.33000During the last trading session, the GBP/USD pair posted a gain of more than 0.5% in favor of the pound, as U.S. dollar weakness continues, even after some positive remarks regarding the U.S.–China trade war. For now, it seems that investors are viewing European currencies as a potential safe haven amid the current wave of economic uncertainty across markets. This shift in sentiment has helped to sustain consistent bullish pressure on the pound in the short term.
Broad Ascending Channel
Since mid-January, the pair has been forming a strong ascending channel, with price now trading above the 200-period simple moving average, reinforcing long-term bullish momentum. So far, no bearish correction has been strong enough to break the channel, which remains the most relevant technical formation to monitor for upcoming GBP/USD moves.
RSI
Despite strong bullish momentum, a notable divergence has begun to form on the RSI, as the pair continues to post higher highs in price, while the RSI shows flat peaks in the short term. In addition, the RSI line is hovering near the 70 level, which marks the overbought zone. Both signals suggest a potential imbalance in market forces, possibly opening the door to short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
1.33763 – Key Resistance: This level represents the most recent highs reached by GBP/USD. A sustained move above this area could confirm strong bullish momentum and lead to an acceleration within the current channel.
1.30448 – Near Support: This area corresponds to a consolidation zone seen over the past few months. It may serve as a tentative barrier where short-term pullbacks could occur.
1.28248 – Major Support: This is a critical level, aligned with the 200-period simple moving average. A decisive move below this support could invalidate the current bullish formation and potentially trigger a long-term bearish shift.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst