XAU/USD : Time For Some Correction ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continues to rise due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Hezbollah and Israel. The price has been extending its rally since yesterday and is currently trading around $2665. In my opinion, after such a significant rally, we can start expecting a minor correction in the price.
Be cautious, as gold's movements have been extremely volatile and risky these days. If you lack sufficient experience, you might end up losing your capital. Reduce your risk to a minimum, avoid trading through Market Execution, and preferably identify key levels in advance. Enter trades only when the price reaches those levels and triggers a suitable setup.
The key supply levels are $2670-$2673, $2682-$2699, $2704-$2711, and the key demand levels are $2654, $2642, $2636, $2616, $2610, $2567. (This analysis will be updated.)
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GBPUSD
EURUSD and GBPUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
NASDAQ TODAYToday is a calm day for US100 until the 3:30 PM pull ;
today, it seems like it ll be going down after a lot of hesitations, a lot of reticence to get over 21K ;
we managed to get the descent the other day (orange lines), today seems like either a big pull out, going towards 22K, but pretty unlikely to happen, or a big drawdown like that, reinitializing RSI for the next rally.
The Pound’s Downward Spiral: Are Bears Calling the Shots?Ah, the British Pound versus the mighty US Dollar. A tale as old as time, or at least as old as the forex market. Lately, though, it seems like the Pound is auditioning for the next big bear market. Grab your tea (or coffee if you’ve gone full American), and let’s dive into why GBP/USD might be heading south faster than you can say " Brexit chaos. " 🏴☠️
1. Fibonacci Says: 'Resistance is Futile!' 🧮✨
First off, let’s talk about Fibonacci retracement. If you’re not familiar, it’s like the "Instagram filter" for price action—bringing clarity to an otherwise messy picture. Right now, the GBP/USD is dancing precariously around the 50% retracement level at 1.24376.
But here’s the kicker: the Pound has already given us the cold shoulder at 1.27573 (the golden 61.8% retracement). Think of it like an ex texting "I’ve changed" and then ghosting you again. Classic. 📵
Unless GBP/USD can reclaim these levels, it’s giving major "let’s break down" vibes. 🚨
2. Descending Triangle of Doom ⚠️🔺
Triangles in forex can mean two things: continuation or reversal. This one? A big ol’ descending triangle, aka the bearish powerhouse. Lower highs are stacking up like unfulfilled New Year’s resolutions, and price action is squished tighter than a London Tube during rush hour. 🐜
The triangle breakdown looks inevitable, and when it does, it might not just be a stumble—it’ll be a swan dive into bearish waters. 🏊♂️💦 Target? Let’s just say 1.18379 and 1.12692 are waving hello from below. 👋
3. RSI: 'Oversold? Hold My Tea!' ☕📊
The RSI indicator is hovering dangerously close to oversold territory (around 30), whispering, "Hey, maybe the bears need a breather?" But don’t let it fool you. This isn’t a reason to buy blindly—it’s like seeing dark clouds and hoping for a rainbow instead of a thunderstorm. 🌈⚡
Unless the RSI shows a clear divergence (spoiler: it doesn’t), the downtrend could easily keep rolling like a snowball turning into an avalanche. ❄️⛰️
4. Support Levels: The Bear’s Playground 🐻🎢
Looking ahead, the key support zones are sitting pretty at:
1.18379 (38.2% Fib): A potential pit stop.
1.12692 (23.6% Fib): Bears are probably circling this like vultures. 🦅
If you’re bullish, it’s time to sit tight. And if you’re bearish, you’re probably popping champagne already. 🍾
What Could Go Right? (AKA, the Bullish Plot Twist) 🐂✨
Okay, let’s not totally rule out the bullish counterattack. If the Pound miraculously pushes back above 1.27573 (the golden retracement), the bears might pack up and head for hibernation. But that’s a big if—like "the UK rejoining the EU" levels of unlikely. 😅
Conclusion: Will the Pound Pound Lower? 🥊📉
The stars—or in this case, Fibonacci levels and triangle patterns—are aligning for a bearish continuation. GBP/USD is looking more like a short than a "diamond in the rough." Unless it stages an Oscar-worthy comeback above 1.27573, this currency pair is poised to fall faster than a bad political speech. 🎭🎤
Bearish Action Plan 🐻📌
Wait for the triangle to break down: Confirmation is key—no guessing games here.
Target 1.18379 and 1.12692: These levels are your guiding stars.
Stop losses above 1.27573: Let’s not fight the inevitable if the bulls wake up.
So, are you ready to ride the bear? Or are you hoping for a bull to save the day? Let me know below—because as we all know, trading is 90% strategy and 10% memes. 😜📈
GBP/USD – Breakout and Retest SetupWe’ve broken below the support zone, which has now turned into a new resistance level. If the price returns to this level, we could see sellers reenter the market and push the price lower.
Strategy: Watch for confirmation at the retest of this resistance before entering a short position. Stay cautious and manage your risk.
GBP/USD: Bearish Trend Targets Lower LevelsGBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2564, extending its bearish trend after breaking below a long-term ascending channel. The price is consolidating below the resistance zone at 1.2685, which previously served as a support level, now turned resistance. This area is critical as it aligns with the recent breakdown structure.
If GBP/USD retests the 1.2685 level and fails to break above, the bearish trend is likely to continue. The next major support lies around 1.2360, where buyers may attempt to regain control. However, a sustained bearish move could push the pair even lower.
On the upside, a break above 1.2685 could lead to a short-term recovery toward the resistance zone near 1.2880, but this remains less likely given the prevailing downtrend. Traders should focus on selling opportunities near resistance levels, with targets around 1.2360 and stops placed above 1.2700 to manage risk effectively.
GBPUSD: Classic Breakout Trade 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
After a breakout, the price retested the broken structure
and started to consolidate on that, forming a range.
Bearish breakout of the range is a strong intraday bearish confirmation.
It increases the probabilities that the breakout is valid.
We can expect a fall at least to 1.254
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GBPUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce offBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.2605, which is an overlap
Our take profit will be at 1.2564, aligning with the 127.2% Fibo extension
The stop loss will be placed at 1.2636, a pullback resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBPUSD: Sell Positive. Emphasis on 1,262FX:GBPUSD falling and reaction to the "flag" model. The price is checking the strong support level around 1,262 ... The basic context still supports the dollar.
Theoretically, the currency briefcase after breaking the channel increases, the price has formed a adjustment and now is decreasing. The areas of interest in our case may be 1,260, 1,257, 1,252.
Basically, the trend of this pair of money may be due to the weaker US dollar and the market environment is psychologically avoiding risks. Traders are still cautious in the context of geopolitical tensions and mild economic calendar. Fedpeak is noticed.
There is no news until the Fed speaks, so the basic context remains the same. The market may stop and go into the consolidation process, but with the high possibility that the decline after a breakthrough 1,262 will continue ...
British pound falls to 6-month low, retail sales nextThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2506, down 0.44% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped as low as 1.2593, its lowest level since mid-May.
It’s a busy Friday in the UK, highlighted by the retail sales report. We’ll also get a look at consumer confidence and the services and manufacturing PMIs.
The UK releases October retail sales on Friday and the markets are bracing for a downswing. The market estimate stands at 3.4% y/y, compared to 3.9% in September, the highest since Feb. 2022. Monthly, retail sales are expected to decline by 0.3%, following a 0.3% gain in September. The UK consumer remains in a sour mood, as the cost of living and high interest rates continue to squeeze households. The GfK consumer confidence index is expected to remain unchanged in November at -21.
The UK manufacturing sector has been struggling. The October PMI was revised downwards to 49.9, which indicates stagnation. The PMI has decelerated for three straight months and the weak global demand will likely continue to weigh on manufacturing in the months ahead. The market estimate for November stands at 50.0.
The services sector is in better shape and has shown 12 consecutive months of growth. The PMI has also eased for three straight months, raising concerns about the health of the economy. The market estimate for November is 52.0, unchanged from the October figure.
The US will also publish manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, with little change expected. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 45.5 to 45.8, and the Services PMI, which has been showing solid growth, from 55 to 55.2.
There is resistance at 1.2666 and 1.2702
GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2618 and tested support at 1.2582 earlier
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3%
October/2024
source: Office for National Statistics
- Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September.
This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%.
The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024.
Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank.
On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.26400 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.26400 support and ressitance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing SupportHello Traders
In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today GBPUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
GBPNZD: Bearish Continuation Setup in FocusI’m closely monitoring GBPNZD as price tests this current region. Here’s the plan:
The Setup
Price is hovering near a key area of interest around 2.15485–2.15781.
I’m observing how price reacts here to determine if bearish momentum will continue.
If sellers remain strong, I’m looking for a further push down toward the green level at 2.13336, which is my target zone.
The Plan
1️⃣ I’ll wait to see if price respects this resistance zone or shows rejection, confirming that sellers remain in control.
2️⃣ My stop loss will be placed strategically above the resistance zone to manage risk effectively.
3️⃣ The goal is to capitalize on a bearish continuation toward the green support line at 2.13336.
Why This Makes Sense
This area has previously acted as a significant turning point for price. If resistance holds, it sets up a clean move toward the next major support zone, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
Mindset Tip:
"It’s not about guessing the market’s next move—it’s about reacting to what it shows you. Stay patient, and let the levels do the talking."
GBPUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineFX:GBPUSD Back to the liquidity test above after the free fall. The pair lacks bullish conviction amid a stable US dollar and as investors choose to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearing before placing strong bets.
A clear bearish wave is forming on the larger timeframe, on the smaller timeframe the downtrend is formed based on negative fundamentals, which only strengthened after Trump's victory. Therefore, any strong resistance can easily hold the market.
On H4, it is trying to break out of the main range, breaking the main support level. A consolidation is forming inside the channel, if sellers hold the 1.269 - 1.277 zone, we can expect a decline towards the areas of interest in the medium term.
Resistance: 1.282 - 1.277 and 1.269
Support: 1.259 - 1.247 and 1.231
The focus is on the resistance level mentioned above, as the further struggle and movement of the market depends on this important zone at this point. The bearish structure will be broken when the local high at 1.282 i.e. (0.5 fib) is broken and the price consolidates above this zone.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair declined to 1.26500 during Asian trading on Thursday. This decline can be attributed to the weakening of the US dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against six major peers, is holding near 106.50 at the time of writing.
However, downside risk to the US Dollar may be limited due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that while further interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too fast or too slow, Bloomberg reported.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflation has remained elevated over the past few months and stressed the need for the Fed to take a cautious approach to rate cuts.
The Reuters poll showed that nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) expect a 25 bps rate cut in December, which would bring the federal funds rate down to 4.25-4.50%. Economists forecast a slower rate cut in 2025 due to the risk of higher inflation as a result of President-elect Trump's policies. The federal funds rate is forecast to be 3.50-3.75% by the end of 2025, 50 bps above last month's forecast.
GBP/USD's upside potential seems restrained due to safe-haven flows amid the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukraine fired a salvo of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, marking the latest use of Western weapons against Russian targets. This came after Ukraine used U.S. ATACMS missiles the previous day.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
GBPUSD M15 I Bullish Bounce Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 1.2652, which is an overlap support.
Our take profit will be at 1.2680, which is a pullback resistance close to 61.8% Fibo resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.2623, which is a multi-swing low support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.