Bullish bounce?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2865
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.2803
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.2936
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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GBPUSD
GBP, HUGE UPSIDE! Back to Long-standing 38-year support!!!I checked GBP tri-monthly chart which is not usually posted here -- and the pair is already telling us something on the direction it wants to go at broader long term spectrum.
On the tri monthly data, GBP has started shifting its trend --- bouncing off it perfectly on a 38-year long standing very solid support.
The pair's last visit to this price range was on April 1985.
The pair is back at 1.0 FIB LEVEL (on tri-monthly) -- this is outrageously beyond bargain.
Histogram wise, another higher lows was created conveying the current price range to be the last base price before the series of incoming series of ascend. Incoming Price valuation will be above average -- and that's an understatement.
Bubble up volume (bottom indicator) finally appeared after almost 2 years (last one was July 2021). This is the 2nd straight appearance in 6 months this year, cementing the intention of the pair's target direction.
Confidence on this pair's long term direction is firm.
A 10% increase from current price within the next 12-16 months (very long candle on tri-monthly) is very possible.
Spotted at 1.25
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
GBPUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 240 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name :GBP/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
———————————
Bullish Break
1.30250 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Hvn
- Pattern Break
- Choch Zone
- Fixed Hvn
Bearish Reversal 1.32750 Area
Election Day Trade: GBPUSDToday marks a significant moment in the United States—Election Day—and as traders, we know that market sentiment can be influenced by political events. This morning, I took a strategic position on GBPUSD, entering the trade at 1.29623. With the current price now at 1.30266, the trade is showing promising momentum.
The volatility associated with elections can create unique opportunities. In this case, the British pound seems to be gaining traction against the dollar, likely reflecting optimism or reactions to the unfolding political landscape. The key to successful trading on days like today is staying vigilant, managing risk, and being ready to adjust your strategy based on incoming news and market reactions.
As always, I emphasize the importance of having a solid exit plan. With the market currently moving in my favor, I’m assessing the best points for taking profits while also remaining aware of potential reversals as the day progresses.
What trades are you taking today, and how are you navigating the uncertainties of Election Day? Share your thoughts and strategies in the comments below! Your perspective could spark valuable conversations among fellow traders.
(All Trading Ideas are shared for Educational Purposes. Trade the market at your own risk.)
GBP/USD Strengthens Amid BoE Rate Cut Speculations and U.S. DataOn Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair exhibited a notable rise against its major counterparts, driven by a reassessment among traders regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) for the remainder of the year. Market sentiment has shifted as analysts speculate that the BoE is poised to implement a rate reduction in one of its forthcoming meetings in November or December. According to recent insights from Reuters, traders are now factoring in an 80% likelihood that the BoE will lower its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, bringing them down to 4.75%.
This potential rate cut comes amidst a backdrop of economic considerations that have traders on alert, particularly with the release of key U.S. employment figures today. The market will focus on the USD Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month data, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These indicators are critical and are expected to bring strong volatility to the markets. Current forecasts suggest a headwind for the USD, which could concurrently bolster the GBP against the euro and impact other pairs correlated with the DXY.
From a technical analysis perspective, GBP/USD has recently approached a significant demand area, which could serve as a springboard for upward movement. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reflects a bearish sentiment among retail traders, indicating a broader market consensus that may be shifting. In contrast, "smart money"—institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions, potentially signaling a bullish outlook.
Adding another layer of complexity are seasonal trends, which historically suggest that the GBP/USD pair could be on the brink of a new bullish rally. Traders are now posed with a critical question: is the current price level the optimal entry point for long positions, or should they await a potential dip to a lower demand zone before committing their capital?
The outcome of today’s economic data releases will likely play a pivotal role in determining the short-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Should the U.S. data disappoint, it may further sway sentiment toward the pound, while strong U.S. figures could dampen enthusiasm for the GBP, sparking further discussions around additional BoE rate cuts as the year draws to a close.
In conclusion, the interplay between central bank policies, economic data, and market sentiment is creating an intricate landscape for traders navigating the GBP/USD pair. With potential rate cuts on the horizon for the BoE and significant U.S. economic indicators set to be released, volatility is inevitable and positions are likely to adjust in response to these developments. As the trading day unfolds, all eyes will remain glued to the charts and economic reports, seeking clarity and direction in what promises to be a dynamic session.
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XAU/USD : Gold Set for a Move as U.S. Election Sparks VolatilityBy analyzing the #Gold chart in the 1-hour timeframe, we can observe several reactions to the demand levels we identified. Yesterday, we saw an initial bounce from the $2733 zone, with a 70-pip rise taking it close to $2740. Later, this morning, the price dipped below $2730 and reached the $2727 zone, where it was met with strong demand, resulting in a sharp increase of over 200 pips up to $2745.
Currently, gold is trading around $2742, and I expect it to soon make another move toward the liquidity pools above $2745 and $2748. After that, keep an eye on the price reaction at $2752.
Note that today is the U.S. election day, and the market may experience significant volatility. Be cautious with your trades!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GBPUSD: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GBPUSD
Entry Point - 1.2995
Stop Loss - 1.3025
Take Profit - 1.2947
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GBPUSD - - INTRADAY IDEASHORT after confirmation.
Execute the price at the exact price mentioned, NO FOMO.
💡KEEP IN MIND💡
I am not a financial advisor and do not contribute to any of your losses or profits. To be safe, I recommend that you risk only 0.1 - 0.2% for the first week or 10 days, as no one can predict the market.
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GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.29800 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.29800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD Analysis!!!Dear Traders,
I'm observing a descending channel on GU, and expecting price to approach a key resistance zone around 1.3110 - 1.3170, marked in red. I'll be looking for bearish signs with clear confirmation, in this area to consider potential short entries. Should GBPUSD respect this resistance, it may retrace downwards, targeting support levels around 1.2900 and potentially reaching the 1.2820 zone if bearish momentum persists.
However, if buyers break through the resistance, I expect further bullish movement towards the upper yellow zones. Monitoring closely for confirmations before taking any position. 🚨
Any question comment me bellow!
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days.
The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance.
The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern.
As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone.
All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850.
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RBA Holds, BoE Expected to Cut in Volatile Week Two major central bank decisions this week join the U.S. election as key events for markets, with interest rate reductions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England being considered.
The RBA will announce its decision Tuesday (local time), with economists polled by Reuters forecasting no change to the current 4.35% cash rate. Persistently robust economic activity and sticky core inflation are thought to be keeping the central bank cautious. All major Australian banks—ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac—expect the RBA to hold steady through year-end, projecting the first rate cut to come in February 2025.
Meanwhile, the BoE is anticipated to lower its Bank Rate by 25-basis points on Thursday (local time), bringing it to 4.75%, according to a Reuters poll. Last week Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves unveiled an unexpectedly large increase in borrowing and public spending, which prompted the Office for Budget Responsibility to raise inflation forecasts. However, analysts suggest that these fiscal moves won’t likely disrupt the BoE’s path toward a rate cut this week.
GBPUSD On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
GBPUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.2913 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.2964
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.2884
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPUSD I Buy and sell short-term opportunity Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Levels discussed during livestream 4th November4th November
DXY: Needs to break 103.90 to trade up to 104.30 (trendline)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5985 SL 30 TP 45
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6590 SL 25 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2985 SL 40 TP 130
EURUSD: Buy 1.0910 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news
USDCHF: Buy 0.8645 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Sell 1.3910 SL 20 TP 100
Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710
XAU/USD : Another Bullish Move Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected last night, gold showed an upward movement with the market opening. After maintaining its position above the noted support level, it reached the targets of $2739 and $2744. Currently, gold is trading around $2742, and we’ll need to watch over the next two hours to see if it can stabilize above this level.
The key demand zones are $2738.6-$2739.7 and $2727-$2733, while the important supply zones are $2747, $2752, and $2757.
GBP/ USD ! 11/4! Resistance H1 SELL NOW ! not NEWS GBP/USD trend forecast November 4, 2024
The GBP/USD pair rises to around 1.2970 during Monday’s Asian session, aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The USD faces pressure after October's soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, supporting the pair's gains. Following a 50 bps rate cut in September that initiated the easing cycle, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower rates by 25 bps in its November meeting, with markets assigning a 97% probability to this move. The Dollar weakens as traders prepare for the US presidential election and the Fed’s rate decision this week.
There was no USD and GBP news data at the beginning of the week, the price recovered and hit the H1 resistance, along with the 2nd GAP. DOWN to fill liquidity, stabilize the price trend during the week.
/// SELL GBP/USD : zone 1.29970 - 1.30200
SL: 1.30500
TP: 60 - 120 - 200 pips (1.28200)
Safe and profitable trading
FTSE UK100 Reaches Key Demand Area Amid Seasonal TrendsThe FTSE UK100 index has recently reached a crucial demand area, igniting traders' interest amid seasonality patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year tends to witness upward momentum in the index prices, making this a significant area for potential bullish moves. Given the historical context, many traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess whether the index will follow suit and initiate a rally.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides a tantalizing glimpse into market dynamics. It reveals that while retail traders are predominantly bearish, "smart money"—the institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions. This divergence is notable; retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator. With smart money stepping in at a demand zone, there is potential for a bullish reversal, which could support the index as it seeks to capitalize on favorable seasonal trends.
Moreover, the broader economic landscape remains conducive to this optimistic outlook. As the UK grapples with various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy responses, investor sentiment has become increasingly nuanced. A stronger performance in the FTSE may be supported by sectors that typically thrive during this time, such as commodities and financial services, providing tailwinds for the index.
As traders look ahead, the focus on a bullish scenario is intensifying. The critical consideration is whether the FTSE UK100 can sustain momentum above the demand area, signaling a recovery phase that may align with both historical patterns and smart money positioning. If the index can maintain its footing and demonstrate strength in the coming sessions, it may very well affirm the bullish sentiment among those advocating for a market upturn.
In summary, the convergence of seasonal patterns, contrasting market sentiment as illustrated by the COT report, and the strong fundamental backdrop paints a compelling picture for the FTSE UK100. Traders are poised to explore opportunities in a potentially bullish scenario, keen to see if the index will follow historical tendencies and deliver a strong performance in the latter part of the year. As always, careful monitoring of market developments will be essential in navigating this promising but complex landscape.
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GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs.
Weekly Chart
Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment
Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape.
In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th.
Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million.
Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline
From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon.
Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook
The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term.
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
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GBP/USD Soars to 1.2970 as U.S. Employment Data Weighs on DollarIn the early hours of the London session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair has jumped toward the 1.2970 mark, aligning with our previous forecast. The U.S. Dollar (USD) is feeling the pressure from sellers, primarily stemming from disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released for October, which has provided a boost to the major currency pair.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut on the Horizon
Following a significant 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September, which marked the beginning of the Fed's easing cycle, market expectations are now leaning towards a further reduction of 25 bps at the upcoming November meeting. Traders are pricing in this possibility with approximately a 97% probability, contributing to the Greenback's decline as investors brace for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the Fed's critical interest rate decision later this week.
Technical Analysis: Demand Zone Bounce
From a technical standpoint, the recent price movement indicates a rebound from our identified demand zone. The setup suggests potential for further upside as it aligns with the broader market sentiment. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report supports this outlook, showing no significant changes in trader positioning that would alter the prevailing market dynamics.
Preparing for Market Volatility
As the U.S. elections approach, traders should be prepared for enhanced volatility in the market. The uncertainty surrounding the election outcomes, coupled with anticipated shifts in U.S. monetary policy, could result in considerable fluctuations across various asset classes. The eventual victor of the election could shape expectations for fiscal strategies, regulatory changes, and economic recovery plans, all of which are likely to influence market sentiment and asset performance in the forthcoming weeks.
Conclusion
The recent movement of the GBP/USD towards 1.2970 highlights the continued impact of economic data and monetary policy expectations on currency pairs. As the market prepares for significant events this week—the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates—traders must remain vigilant. Understanding the interplay between electoral outcomes and monetary policies will be essential for navigating the potential market turmoil that awaits in the days ahead.
Previous Forecast
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GBPUSDGBPUSD price has a chance to test the resistance zone 1.30208-1.30486. If the price cannot break through the 1.30486 level, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will go down. Consider selling the red zone.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 4, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair saw a notable increase in value on Monday, reaching 1.29700 amid a weaker US dollar in Asian trading hours. The US dollar (USD) continues to face selling pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which provided some support for the major pair.
Following a 50-basis-point cut to rates in September, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to implement a further 25-basis-point reduction in its discount rate at its November meeting. The probability of this outcome is estimated by the markets to be around 97%. The US dollar is experiencing a decline as traders anticipate the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.
Analysts anticipate that Donald Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will exert upward pressure on inflation, Treasury yields and the US dollar, while Kamala Harris is regarded as a potential successor. "There is a widespread view that a Trump victory would have a positive effect on the US dollar, although many believe that such an outcome has already been priced in," said Chris Weston, an analyst at brokerage Pepperstone.
Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates on Thursday, despite predictions that the Labour budget could result in higher inflation in the UK next year. Market sentiment is that the Bank of England will announce its second 25 bp rate cut this year, taking it down to 4.75 per cent.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.30000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.