Pound slips as UK payrolls slideThe British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, GBP/USD has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day.
The UK payrolls report, a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government's new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November.
While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held rates in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. Inflation has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation.
In the US, the strong nonfarm payrolls report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn't expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The Fed started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policy makers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025.
GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2278. and is putting pressure on support at 1.2211
1.2395 and 1.2462 are the next resistance lines
GBPUSD
GBP/USD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.212 area.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Ghost Traders FX GBP/USD Trend Continuation [SHORT]News volume has failed to create disrupt the bearish structure and trend, liquidity remains targetable on the sell side with buyside liquidity swept last night.
I don't see the DXY reversing bearish just yet but I believe we are close.
My Bias is Short as price seems very likely to target 1.203 before any major trend reversal.
Trade Record for GTFX stands at 126 wins, 17 breakevens, 7 losses with a 94%+ W/R & +2670 pips gained.
Short Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart: Short Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart:
- *Current Price*: 1.22722 USD per GBP.
- *Resistance Level*: Around 1.23500 USD, marked as a rejection zone.
- *Support Trendline*: An upward trendline connecting the lows from January 10 to January 21.
- *Potential Movement*: Indication of a downward movement from the rejection zone, suggesting a bearish outlook.
target based on the provided GBP/USD chart analysis:
Bearish Scenario:
- *Initial Target*: If the price rejects the resistance level around 1.23500 USD and confirms a downward movement, the initial target would be around 1.22000 USD.
- *Extended Target*: If the bearish trend continues, a more extended target could be around 1.21000 USD, close to the next significant support level.
Levels discussed on 20th Jan 2025 Livestream20th January 2025
DXY: Currently below 109.40, break above, could trade up to 110 (previous swing high), beyond that, strong resistance at 111
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5575 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6170 SL 15 TP 40
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2150 SL 15 TP 40
EURUSD: Sell 1.0310 SL 30 TP 110
USDJPY: Buy 156.70 SL 40 TP 120
EURJPY: Sell 161.10 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Looking for reaction at 191.15
USDCHF: Choppy between 0.91 and 0.9150
USDCAD: Buy 1.4480 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Needs to stay above 2694 (trendline) to trade up to 2722 resistance
Bullish rise off 50% Fibonacci support?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2245
1st Support: 1.2162
1st Resistance: 1.2369
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart, price is falling toward the buy entry at 1.22097, which aligns with a demand zone and a pullback support area. This level is expected to act as a strong entry point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 1.23519, targeting the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a logical exit point for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 1.21054, below the recent swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish bias.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Trump Bullish for USD! Farage Next for GBP?!With the way the media is promoting Nigel Farage more day by day & getting his face out there, I’m starting to think his been ‘selected’ as the next U.K. Prime Minister. They’re drip feeding the idea into the publics head.
Also, with the way the media is releasing more & more race hate content & dividing people, it’ll be ‘completely normal’ when a far right politician into power, as no one will question it or even think to say he had no support behind him. With all the race hate & division content being promoted by the media, we’ll see a lot more aggro against coloured people & immigrants. This’ll be the main factor used to make the public believe Nigel Farage was put into power by the public.
This is just my theory. Let’s see how it pans out!
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
This currency pair has found support upon reaching the bottom of the channel and a key support zone. A bullish move is anticipated from this level, with the price expected to rise at least to the top of the channel and the specified resistance area.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
GBP/USD Trade in Play – Why This Setup Could Be HUGEWhat’s great everyone? Mr. Blue Ocean FX here with an in-depth breakdown of GBP/USD.
We’re currently in a trade, having entered at 1.2297, with stops set at 1.2550. Let’s dive into the key levels and what we’re looking for moving forward.
On Friday, we identified a significant lower high around the 1.2297 level, which led to a strong impulse move down to 1.2104. After a pullback and rejection, price failed to make a new lower low, closing around 1.2151, and eventually breaking above resistance at 1.2210, creating a new higher high at 1.2297.
We waited for a pullback and a push above 1.2297, which we got, confirming our entry with volume supporting the move. Currently, I’m monitoring the H4 candle; if we see a break and close below 1.2272, we could expect a deeper pullback into the 1.2236 zone, which would present an opportunity for a second entry. However, I believe the fair value gap (FVG) around this level will hold, leading to consolidation before another push higher.
Looking at the DXY (Dollar Index) on the weekly timeframe, we had a strong push up from December 2nd to January 6th before topping out. It now appears to be rolling over, potentially forming a higher low before continuing higher. Today’s daily candle has broken structure, with a lower high forming around 109.33, suggesting short-term weakness in the dollar and potential upside for GBP/USD.
As we monitor price action, the next H4 candle close will be crucial. If price holds above support and volume supports the move, we anticipate further upside.
As always, keeping this breakdown short and to the point. If you found this helpful, boost it, like it, and share it with a fellow trader. Stay tuned for the next update.
GBPUSD Week 4 Swing Zone & LevelDynamic Take profit, dtp allows trade to catch big moves. These are set based on price momentum. Last week provided a humble 40pips.
Initial Swing Zone/Level are calculated at
Zone: 21599-21549
Level set as shown. Either a or b could play out, as determined by Price action.
As price breaks or bounces off these areas, new zones/levels will be recalculated.
Happy trading week
XAU/USD : Key Levels $2717 and $2727 to Define Next Move! (READ)Analyzing the 4-hour gold chart, we observe that after rising to approximately $2725, gold underwent a correction down to $2703. Currently, gold is trading around $2708, and the key level to watch over the next two hours is $2717.
If gold fails to breach and stabilize above $2717, we may expect further corrections. Alternatively, gold might move above $2727 to collect liquidity, followed by a potential reaction to this liquidity pool, leading to a correction.
Stay tuned for updates once the confirmations are in place!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Under PressureMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Under Pressure
GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.2320 zone.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today
- The British Pound started another decline from the 1.2320 resistance zone.
- There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2205 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.2320 resistance zone. The British Pound started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.2270 support zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair even traded below 1.2250 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2100 level. The recent swing low was formed at 1.2160 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near a short-term bearish trend line at 1.2205. The first major resistance is near the 1.2230 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2305 swing high to the 1.2160 low.
The main hurdle sits at 1.2270 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2305 swing high to the 1.2160 low. A close above the 1.2270 resistance might spark a steady upward move.
The next major resistance is near the 1.2305 zone. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2320 resistance in the near term.
Initial support on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.2160. The next major support sits at 1.2140, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2100.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2364
1st Support: 1.2099
1st Resistance: 1.2531
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBP/USD: Consolidation at Key SupportLooking at the 4-hour chart of GBP/USD, I see that the pair is currently trading around 1.2202, with signs of consolidation at a strong support zone. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA are still sloping down, indicating that the bearish bias is still dominant. However, the gap between the price and the EMA is narrowing, which could be a sign that the bearish pressure is waning.
In addition, the pair has successfully tested the 1.2170 support zone in recent sessions, creating a solid foundation for a short-term recovery. To break this consolidation, the price needs to overcome the dynamic resistance at the 34 EMA, located around 1.2230. If this happens, the next target will be the 1.2300 zone – a strong psychological resistance.
GBPUSD H1 | Bullish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart, Calling for a bullish bounce off the key support level at 1.21937, which aligns with a pullback support zone. This level is expected to act as a strong entry point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 1.22981, targeting a key resistance level, marking a logical exit point for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 1.21468, below the recent swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish bias.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Weekly Forex Trade Planning SessionAnalysed Pairs: CAD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/CAD
Market Overview:
USD & JPY: Bullish
CAD: Mixed
EUR & GBP: Weak
Price Analysis:
CAD/JPY:
Trend: Downtrend
Current Position: At Momentum Low
Outlook: Expecting a bullish pullback in the next phase.
GBP/USD:
Trend: Downtrend
Current Position: Trading at Momentum Low 5
Outlook: Potential for bearish continuation. Watch for a bullish reversal above 1.2186. A break below 1.2160 could signal further downside.
USD/CAD:
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Current Position: After a trend reset breaking the momentum high
Outlook: Avoid buying at the high; wait for a pullback to go long. Alternatively, look for short opportunities if the price breaks below the reset point.
USD/JPY:
Trend: Correction in Downtrend
Current Position: Observing Wave Structure 3
Outlook: Potential for a bullish secondary trend. Using Fibonacci levels, the price has paused at the 61.8% T2 target. If the high of Wave 3 isn't broken, the downtrend may resume.
EUR/CAD:
Trend: Trend-changing pattern after last pullback
Outlook: Look to sell on a break below 1.4860, with targets at 1.4825 and 1.4810.
Happy Trading!
GBPUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello traders! Here's my analysis for the GBP/USD pair. Currently, I anticipate the price to continue its downward movement towards the target of 1.19872 .
However, if GBP/USD breaks above the 1.23220 level on the 1H timeframe and consolidates, I expect a potential bull market scenario to unfold.
📉 Expectation:
Downward trend to 1.19872 unless 1.23220 is broken.
If the 1.23220 resistance is breached, a bullish movement may start.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Target 1: 1.19872
Resistance to break: 1.23220
💬 What’s your take on GBP/USD this week? Let me know in the comments below!
Trade safe
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 20-24thThis is an outlook for the week of Jan 20-24th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD is at a higher time frame Supply Zone. This coincides with the Inauguration Day for Trump. The USD Index will potentially start to turn over here, if the 2016 Inauguration Day is used as a model. No selling until a bearish break of structure! But stay vigilant, and be careful buying into a HTF Supply Zone!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.