GBP/USD : First BUY, then SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently holding the support at the 1.30700 area. I expect it to continue its upward movement. The potential targets for this analysis are 1.31130 and the range between 1.31345 to 1.31455. Also, keep an eye on the 1.31455 to 1.31760 area for a potential SELL opportunity.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD BUY TO $1.3200 (UPDATE)Bullish momentum seems to be holding up for GU & price action looks like it is getting ready to break above the current trendline, which'll indicate market is ready for further upside.
Price compression within Wave IV to V is getting tighter, so if DXY weakens this week, it'll support further GU upside.
GBPUSD BUY TO $1.3200 (UPDATE)Since my update on GU since last night, price action has moved as I called it! Price has broken above the trendline, with a strong 4H bullish candle. Further indication that market is now in a bullish structure.
Wave 1 (5 Sub-Waves) complete. Now time for a move up towards Wave 2!
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves.
UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability
Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market.
However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session.
US Data and Market Outlook
The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar.
Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead?
From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level.
Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals.
Conclusion
GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions.
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EURUSD - 4H Bullish signsThe OANDA:EURUSD pair is currently positioned for potential bullish momentum, especially as the weakening of the US dollar becomes more evident. Technically, the EURUSD is showing signs of recovery, as the downward momentum appears to be weakening, and the price has reached a strong support zone. The recent decline in the USD due to a softer US jobs report, coupled with expectations of dovish action from the Federal Reserve, provides further support for a possible upward move in FX:EURUSD .
Additionally, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to take further action, possibly through a rate cut in mid-October, market sentiment around the Euro remains cautiously optimistic. If the pair breaks above the next resistance levels, the outlook for a continued rise seems strong, as the price aims for 1.1010 or higher. This aligns well with the technical analysis, where the support zone indicates a potential bounce in the coming sessions.
GBPUSD broke higher out of wedgeIntraday Update: The GBPUSD has broken the wedge higher following the UK jobs data as DK has mentioned in the chatroom earlier. Claimant count came in worse than expected, unemployment rate did drop and the GBP is cueing off that for now, Any move back to the 1.3145 level should find sellers.
DXY - Dollar Index 4H bearish setupThe TVC:DXY is showing potential for a bearish reversal after its recent rise. Technically, DXY has bounced back to a key resistance zone after a major fall, reaching the order block from the last leg down. The failure to break significantly higher from this resistance suggests the possibility of another downward move. Liquidity grabs above the resistance zone further support this bearish outlook. However, a small bounce within the resistance zone before another fall is still possible as liquidity is gathered from the upside.
Fundamentally, several factors are influencing the bearish sentiment for the USD. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing easing cycle and the potential for further interest rate cuts weaken the dollar, especially as inflation pressures remain subdued. Other central banks, including the ECB, have cut rates, increasing the interest rate gap with the USD, which could further reduce demand for the dollar
GBP/USD: Downtrend ExtendedHello traders!
Today, GBP/USD made an impressive reversal above 1.3000 on Monday, as the market turned cautious ahead of a slew of important economic data from the UK due for release this week. The wage and employment reports will kick off on Tuesday morning, followed by notable CPI and PPI figures on Wednesday.
Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD remains stuck in a downtrend channel, with strong resistance at 1.3300 still intact. This suggests that the market is unlikely to make a significant breakout in the short term without fresh momentum.
GBPUSD M15 I Bullish reversal Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 1.3058, which is an overlap support.
Our take profit will be at 1.3094, a multi-swing high resistance close to 161.8% Fibonacci extension
The stop loss will be placed at 1.3030 which is a swing low support level.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Sell GBP/USD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3062. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2988
2nd Support – 1.2960
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3090. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Today High Impact News :
GBP - GDP, Trade Balance
EUR - German CPI
USD - PPI
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DXY - Reaching potential turning pointThe DXY has swung up from it's lows with a classic type 1 reaction and a dragon pattern at a key support that has held for the past two years. We have a bearish bias towards the DXY and here is why:
- Distribution pattern for over a year.
- Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
- General US Dollar Policy.
- Current bullish state of stock and crypto markets implying a weakening dollar.
So now in terms of the current chart and understanding where it could turn. For the past two years we have an impeccable record against the DXY, telling where it could and has bottomed or where it could and has topped.
Now, traditional technical analysis suggests a less convincing but still valuable bearish outlook on it. Here it is:
- Minor resistance just above.
- Completing the bearish 5-0 of this harmonic (We know XB is short of the required 0.786, we're choosing to value it the same).
- Straight reaction to T1 from the harmonic, no sign of accumulation bottom or deep retracement to capture value. Usually signifies an impulse move before at least a retracement to backtest the pcz and put in a higher/ same low.
- Strong Bearish Divergence on all the oscillators.
With these factors we are looking for the DXY to turn soon, the bearish 5-0 target would be a great point to do so but it could yet push higher.
The overall purpose of this post is to showcase that the DXY is still bearish although recent strength. The market is still bullish and could become even more so in the coming weeks/months.
GBPUSD - Follow the Bulls!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈GBPUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising wedge in orange.
Moreover, it is approaching a structure marked in green.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the structure and lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GBPUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
xauusd h1 short from resistance tp 2635 usd🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Strong
V-shape recovery in progress off the recent lows, however heavy
overhead resistance will trigger a pullback from S/R levels overhead.
🔸Strong resistances at 2665 and 2675. key S/R bulls at 2635 usd.
currently getting overextended so it's recommended to focus on
short selling rips/rallies from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2665/75 SL 2680 USD TP 2635 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2680 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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GBP/USD steadies above 1.3050Hello dear friends!
As we predicted, GBP/USD fluctuated and fell sharply until 1.302 and completed the sell target as mentioned earlier.
However, the price quickly reversed and stabilized around 1.306. The upside momentum of GBP/USD may be limited by the sustained strength of the US dollar, due to the geopolitical risks looming around the world and concerns about China's economy, keeping the pair within a familiar range.
In conclusion, GBP/USD is still in a downtrend, but the selling pressure has gradually decreased and the possibility of a move to the upside is due to the convergence signs from the trend line and RSI indicator. The support level around 1.302 - 1.300 has not been broken yet and remains a bright spot for GBP/USD to recover.
GBPUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.3062, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 50% FIbo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.3041, a multi-swing low support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.3081, above the swing-high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.