DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level.
However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend.
With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
GBPUSD
USD/CHF Wedge BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.9094
2nd Support – 0.9063
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Cable H1 | Approaching pullback resistanceCable (GBP/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.2258 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.2347 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1.2106 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBP/USD Analysis: Bulls Find Renewed HopeGBP/USD Analysis: Bulls Find Renewed Hope
This morning, UK inflation data was released, as reported by ForexFactory:
Consumer Price Index (CPI): actual = 2.5%, expected = 2.6%, previous = 2.6%;
Core CPI: actual = 3.2%, expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%.
The foreign exchange market reacted with a surge in volatility as UK inflation showed a decline.
At the same time, a technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart offers some hope for bulls following a drop of more than 9% from the peaks of September 2024 (interestingly, on 10th September 2024, we noted that bulls were facing challenges).
When analysing today’s GBP/USD price movements, we observe that at the start of 2025, the price has approached a key support zone formed by:
the lower boundary of the descending channel (drawn in red);
the psychological level of 1.2000;
the significant 2023 low around the 1.2040 level.
The long lower wicks on the 4-hour candles, including today’s (highlighted with an arrow), can be interpreted as a signal of increasing demand. This could be an early sign that the pound is gaining confidence to resist the building pressure from the dollar.
Traders’ attention today will be on the release of the US CPI report (at 16:30 GMT+3), which may further support the case for strengthening bulls.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
"Awaiting Bearish Confirmation at Key Resistance Zone on DXY"Based on the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index:
1. **Trend Analysis**: The index is currently within an upward channel, indicating a bullish trend. The price is oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this channel.
2. **Recent Movements**: There’s a noticeable price peak around the upper boundary, suggesting potential exhaustion. The recent downward movement indicates the possibility of a reversal.
3. **Bearish Confirmation**: The note emphasizes waiting for bearish confirmation before executing any trades. This suggests that it's prudent to look for signs of trend reversal or weakening momentum before making a bearish move.
4. **Strategy**: The advice is clear: without confirmation of a bearish trend, no trading should occur, highlighting a cautious approach.
5. **Key Levels**: Watch for key support around the mid-channel and resistance near the upper boundary, which could signal entry or exit points.
Overall, the chart indicates a cautious approach is necessary, focusing on confirmations before taking any trading actions.
gbpusdGBP/USD is mired in near-term technical consolidation near the 1.2200 handle as key inflation metrics from the US and UK growth figures loom large through the midweek sessions.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown through the 1.2350 horizontal support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. A subsequent fall and acceptance below the 1.2200 mark supports prospects for deeper losses. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has dropped below the 30 mark. This makes it prudent to wait for some consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension over a three-month-old downtrend.
In the meantime, the 1.2200 mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying beyond the Asian session top, around the 1.2210 area, could trigger a short-covering move and lift the GBP/USD pair beyond the 1.2245-1.2250 intermediate hurdle, towards reclaiming the 1.2300 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared would negate the negative bias and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
GBPUSD H1 | Bullish RiseBased on the daily chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2179, which is a pullback support. This level is expected to act as a potential continuation point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 1.2314, near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, marking a significant resistance zone and logical target for the upward move.
The stop loss is set at 1.2101, the recent swing low and a key support level, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish setup.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBP/USD Bearish Setup: Short at Key Retracement LevelsThe GBP/USD pair is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, having recently broken significantly below its descending channel, indicating heightened selling pressure. As of now, no bullish divergence is observed, suggesting that the price may retrace to form a lower high. Key levels to watch for potential short entries are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which align with the bearish trend continuation narrative.
GBPUSD /Sterling Hits 8-Month Low Amid Bearish MomentumGBP/USD Analysis
Sterling Weakens to an 8-Month Low
The British pound has dropped to $1.240, marking its lowest level in eight months. This decline is driven by concerns over the UK’s economic resilience and a stronger US dollar.
The UK economy remains stagnant, with revised Q3 figures showing no growth, adding to the challenges faced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer's new government. Furthermore, the Bank of England's dovish stance in its final 2024 rate decision has placed additional pressure on the pound.
Trade tensions also weigh on the pound, particularly with former US President Trump's proposed tariffs, which could disrupt UK trade.
Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair maintains a bearish momentum, though a correction to 1.2485 is possible, especially if the price stabilizes above 1.2409.
If the price breaks 1.2485 and closes a 4-hour candle above it, this could signal the start of a bullish continuation towards 1.2610.
Conversely, if the price reverses and stabilizes below 1.2409, it could drop further to test 1.2315.
A sustained move below 1.2409 would strengthen the bearish outlook, with potential targets at 1.2315 and 1.2215.
Key levels
Pivot Line: 1.2409
Resistance lines: 1.2485, 1.2532, 1.2611
Support Lines: 1.2315, 1.2215, 1.2150
Trend Outlook
Consolidation: Between 1.2409 and 1.2485
Bearish: Below 1.2400
Bullish: Above 1.2486
XAU/USD : Reasons for Falling! (READ THE CAPTION)In the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching $2697 and hitting all targets last Friday, gold eventually closed around the $2690 zone. Today, gold showed a bearish sentiment, dropping by over 300 pips and correcting to as low as $2664.
Currently, gold is trading around $2670, and if it stabilizes below this level within the next 4 hours, further declines can be expected. Potential bearish targets are $2663, $2658.8, and $2652.5, respectively.
This analysis will be updated soon, so stay tuned for a trading setup in the lower timeframes!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bouncing Back: EUR/USD Poised for a Bullish WaveEUR/USD is trading at 1.0257, showing signs of bullish momentum with a target price of 1.0800. The price action is based on the support and resistance pattern, with the pair currently bouncing off a strong support level. This bounce indicates a potential reversal and the start of an upward trend. The support level serves as a foundation for buyers to regain control, pushing the price higher. A steady climb toward the resistance level at 1.0800 is expected if the support holds firm. Traders should monitor this bounce closely for confirmation of bullish momentum. The setup presents a favorable opportunity for long positions, supported by technical analysis. However, risk management remains crucial to navigate market volatility. This move emphasizes the role of key levels in predicting price movements. Patience and strategy are essential to capitalize on this trade setup.
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD faltered as markets changed their expectations for interest rates before the end of the year, sending the pair to fresh 15-month lows and breaking through 1.2100, but then ended trading near the 1.2230 starting point.
It has been a quiet start to the week, but more inflation data from both the US and the UK will give traders plenty of material to ponder as they try to determine the first quarter rate differential forecast. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates steady for the first half of the year, while the Bank of England (BoE) will have to choose between keeping interest rates stable in a still-high inflation environment and risking an inflationary spike to support the floundering UK economy with further rate cuts.
Tuesday's significant data of the week will start with the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in December from the previous reading of 3.4%. Wednesday will see the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is also expected to accelerate in the near term, with a rise to 0.4% m/m versus the previous reading of 0.1%.
US CPI inflation, also out on Wednesday, is forecast to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, US retail sales data is expected on Thursday and UK retail sales round out the list of important data this week.
Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2150, trading mainly with Sell orders
GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2365
2nd Support – 1.2460
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🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
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GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.22000 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.22000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Sticky Inflation, Falling Pound, Pure Chaos in USD pairs!Last week was pure chaos. The dollar flexed like it’s been hitting the gym, while the pound? Let’s just say it’s practicing free-fall techniques. Sterling slipped so hard it might need a parachute soon. 🪂💸
Meanwhile, inflation is still that uninvited party guest who refuses to leave. UK CPI? Sticky. US CPI? Stubborn. And central banks? They’re in the corner pretending it’s not happening. 🙈📉
Here’s what we’re unpacking this week:
👉 Monday : ECB speeches. Expect fancy words, minimal action. 🙄
👉 Tuesday : US PPI drops. Prices rising faster than your blood pressure? Find out! 📈
👉 Wednesday : The big show. UK & US CPI—will inflation finally chill, or are we doomed to more rate drama? 🥶🔥
👉 Thursday : Aussie employment data hops in. Will it jumpstart the AUD? 🦘💵
👉 Friday : China’s GDP report. Rebound or flop? Either way, it’s gonna ripple through the markets. 🌏💣
George’s Hot Take:
Dollar: Still the king. 👑💪
Sterling: In the doghouse. 🐶🚪
Inflation: Like gum on your shoe—it’s not going anywhere. 😤🥿
🎧 Tune in for all the market madness, trading insights, and just the right amount of sarcasm. Because hey, the markets don’t care about your feelings—but we’ll at least laugh about it with you. 😏
🎙️ Listen now and stay ahead of the curve! 🎧
GBPUSD: Fibonacci Levels and Oversold Zones Strengthen SupportThe DXY's strength has pressured markets into critical territories, pushing the pound toward key support levels towards 1.2030.
Fibonacci Extensions
Using the Fibonacci extension tool on the corrective pattern between the July 2023 high (1.3125), October 2023 low (1.2030), and September 2024 high (1.3434), the notable 1.272 extension level aligns with the 1.2030 support.
Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retesting levels last seen in October 2023 and September 2022 at 24.30, indicating potential near-term reversal probabilities.
What to Watch
If current support holds, a reversal could push the pair toward resistance at 1.2770, coinciding with the upper border of the 15-year consolidation range. This would require a decisive close above the 2024 lows at 1.2330.
If bearish pressures persist below the critical 1.20 level, further declines could target the 1.5 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, aligning with the 1.18 and 1.1670 zones, respectively.
- Razan Hilal, CMT