GBP/USD: Potential Bearish Continuation Amid Economic IndicatorsFollowing the successful attainment of our profit target in the demand area, the GBP/USD currency pair has shown a modest recovery, reclaiming some ground from the 1.2400 level. As this article is being written, the price has retraced into a prior supply zone situated around 1.2541. This development indicates a potential resistance area where the pound may struggle to maintain its upward momentum.
As we move into the latter part of the day, market participants will be intently focused on significant economic reports from the United States, specifically the ISM Services PMI for December and the JOLTS Job Openings data for November. These reports are crucial in gauging the health of the US economy, particularly in the services sector, which has a substantial impact on overall economic performance.
The ISM Services PMI is anticipated to provide valuable insights into business conditions, and a reading that falls below 50 could suggest contraction in the sector. Such a scenario may trigger renewed selling pressure on the USD, potentially offering some support to the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, if the report shows a strong uptick, it could further solidify the USD's position.
In tandem with the PMI, the JOLTS Job Openings report will also be closely examined. A decline in job openings might indicate a softening labor market, adding further downward pressure on the dollar. However, a notable rise in job openings could bolster confidence in the labor market and affirm the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its current monetary policy stance, providing added strength to the USD.
Given the current price action and the anticipated economic data, our outlook leans toward a potential bearish continuation for the British Pound. As the market digests this key information, we are likely to see an increase in dollar strength, which would further challenge the GBP/USD pair. Traders and investors should remain vigilant in monitoring these developments, as the interplay between the pound and the dollar will be critical in shaping the currency pair's next movements.
Previous Forecast:
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD | 09.01.2025BUY 1.22800 | STOP 1.22200 | TAKE 1.23600 | The pound is losing ground during the Asian session on January 9, developing a strong "bearish" momentum formed last Tuesday and working out the mark of 1.23210 today to break down. We expect a corrective upward movement of the price to consolidate the trend of movement.
The focus of British investors' attention is on retail price statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): in December, the index fell by 1.0% after -0.6% earlier, not justifying preliminary calculations of -0.4% and signaled a weakening of price pressure in the UK.
Potential bullish reversal?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2067
1st Support: 1.1867
1st Resistance: 1.2321
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GBPUSD D1 I Bullish Bounce Off?Based on the daily chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.2074, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo projection
Our take profit is set at 1.2308, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1846, which is below 100% Fibo projection, providing room for price fluctuations while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio.
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Levels discussed during livestream 10th Jan 202510th January 2025 (Pre NFP)
DXY: Consolidating below 109.40
strong nfp: break 109.40 trade up to 110
weak nfp; needs to break 108.80, to trade down to bottom of channel at 108.40
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5570 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.62 support area, Sell 0.6255 SL 20 TP 50 (rejection of trendline)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2250 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0270 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength)
USDJPY: Sell 157.80 SL 30 TP 120 (DXY weakness MASSIVE Counter Trend)
EURJPY: Do Nothing
GBPJPY: Buy 195.50 SL 60 TP 250
USDCHF: Buy 0.91430 SL 30 TP 60
USDCAD: Buy 1.4390 SL 20 TP 70
XAUUSD: Continuation higher, break above 2678 to trade up to 2690
$GBPUSD Smashes 500 to 1000 PIPS– Ready for the Next Power Move?FX:GBPUSD pair has delivered an epic performance, locking in a massive +1000 PIPS on the whole swing and +562 PIPS on the half swing! After smashing through +250 pips in the latest move, the big question arises: what's next for the Wave Swingers?
With precision setups and powerful momentum, we analyze the next potential opportunities in this explosive trend.
Stay patience & focused for the next wave of dominance!
> All Trade setups provided advanced in time on IDEAS & MINDS.
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 13, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 13-17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD is still strong, so no reason to sell in the near term. With price at Monthly and Weekly
Supply levels, we have to proceed with caution in the near term. The bias is still bullish until the market gives us a HTF bearish break of structure.
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GBP/USD IS BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Cable is 100% bearish. On a monthly,weekly and daily perspective she is bearish. We will be looking for sells however we do see some buying opportunities located around 1.19 and above. For sellers we are seeing them primarily in control with no signs of reversal. The goal here for the account is to focus heavy on the continuation and to utilize our gains wisely. This year will be a year where I will be focusing on account builds (small to big). This compound skill is a skillset that is worth multi millions and if learned correctly will literally separate you from 99% of traders. The key from what it seems in my research is finding the right timing and scaling into the bigger overall move with intra day positions. Another way is to effectively focus on % gain wins w/ a decent weekly hit rate. Both are scenarios in which require the trader to understand the asset of choice like the back of their hand.
Another goal of mine this year will be finally tackling the prop firm space. Now this particular space to me screams red flags due to the lack of reliability and the casino effect tied to all prop firms world wide. In short, the casino effect reflects on how hard these prop firms will be towards profitable traders. They can create rules and eliminate winning trades because of some made up rule they decided to implement. To me, that is one of the biggest issues I have and people playing with hard earned money is a huge no for me and to make matters worse, all these accounts we are paying for are demo accounts. However, I cant just ignore the space so to meet everything half way I will be purchasing the smallest account size available. Doing this, my investment towards their business model is minimal and the profits will be used to scale into the biggest account they have. This will also let my models prove to me they are ready to tackle space and effectively generate weekly % gains in order to even consider investing into any prop firm.
Other than that, GBP/USD is bearish and we are ready to push our models in order to facilitate the upcoming plays. As always, trade safe.
Mr.Oazb
EURAUD - Start 2025 with a BIG Win!EURAUD has given us a fantastic opportunity to get in at the very start of a BIG move.
We are currently in an ABC correction. We'e completed waves A and B and now currently in wave C. We're expecting 5 waves from wave C and looks as if we've completed wave 1 and currently in wave 2. We're looking to catch the rest of the move on the break of the trendline.
Trade Idea:
- Safe entry on break of trendline
- Riskier entry within the fibs or anywhere below invalidation
- stops above invalidation
- Targets: 1.6 (700pips), 1.156 (1100pips)
- Taper as we move lower
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
GBP Analysis Potential Sell Set UpGreetings all!
This week I'm looking for some retracement of GBPUSD before price ultimately falls to 1.213 OR 1.206. Both are areas where price have reversed (October and November) in the past, making them places of interest. Responsibily, when price lands in these zones I will be watching price action to determine whether I want to continue selling or watch for reversals. I will not consider a reversal until a previous high has been swept, breaking market structure!
Quick Read:
Potential retracement - 1.223 OR between ~1.235 - 1.240
Potential reversal areas = 1.213 and 1.206
Trading "Strategies" - Fair Value Gap and/or Fib Retracement while in a downtrend.
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.23000 or 1.25000 back down...My analysis for GBP/USD (GU) this week focuses on the continuation of the bearish trend, as the price has been consistently breaking structure to the downside. I anticipate that the price will follow through and mitigate a nearby supply level, creating an opportunity to capitalize on the current market conditions.
I’ll be looking to take sell positions once the price reaches one of my identified supply levels, such as the 5-hour or 7-hour zones. At these levels, I expect the price to slow down on the lower time frames, signalling a continuation of the bearish trend. If the price moves lower and taps into the 1-hour demand zone, we could see a temporary bullish reaction before the downtrend resumes.
Confluences for GU Sells:
- The price remains very bearish on the higher time frames.
- The DXY is strongly bullish, aligning with this bearish trend for GU.
- A clean supply zone has caused a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside.
- The market is forming lower lows and lower highs.
- Liquidity below still needs to be taken.
Note: If the price continues to drop without tapping into my POIs, I’ll wait for another break of structure, which may create a new supply zone. Alternatively, I might look for a counter-trend buy from a valid demand zone back up to a supply level.
Scary ChartI took a look at the longer-term chart for GBP/USD and it looks like the market has recently failed at the top of an eight-year down channel – if this is correct there is a lot more downside pain to come for Sterling.
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Why is the GBP Selling Off?The GBP/USD pair has seen a significant drop, plunging to 1.2191, a level last witnessed in November 2023. This decline comes despite rising UK bond yields, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.47% and the 10-year yield at 4.8%, both historic highs not seen in decades. Typically, such yields would support the pound; however, lingering fears of inflation and fiscal instability have outweighed this effect. The UK faces economic challenges, including increased borrowing costs and fiscal constraints under Chancellor Rachel Reeves' leadership. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to gain momentum, driven by strong economic indicators and rising Treasury yields. As traders monitor the unfolding fiscal policies in the UK and any shifts in US trade strategies, the GBP/USD pair is likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on these developments, as they will be key drivers in determining future price action in this currency pair.
EUR/USD Bearish PennantThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0242
2nd Support – 1.0205
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GBPUSD, What's next ?Hello Traders, Hope you're doing great.
for upcoming days, I think we'll probably see an upward correction to specified level and after that another fall to 1.220 , we also have a regular divergence on 4H time frame.
so with a proper trigger, we can open a short position at specified level.
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GBPUSD Buy ProjectionAs we approach NFP release, this is developing on $GBPUSD. the price went above the accumulation phase as indicated by the red box, thereafter, we saw lower prices until yesterday when distribution phase ended. Now we seeing triggers of price reversal aided by SMT with $EURUSD. I expect price to go higher from 1.22830 area targeting the previous week's high. Buy!
GBPUSD Ultimate buy signal at the bottom of the 2year Channel UpThe GBPUSD pair brutally reversed this week's early gains and the 1W candle will most likely close in red after making a new Low. The trend has been bearish since the September 23 2024 High and has been accelerated after the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection in early December.
This is however the ultimate long-term buy opportunity as the price is almost at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up. On top of that, the 1W RSI is almost on the oversold barrier (30.00), a level intact since October 2022.
As long as the price is closing within the Channel Up, we see a rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level very likely, as it happened in November 2023. Our Target is 1.2950.
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Trading the Falling Wedge Pattern: A Bullish Setup for EURUSDEURUSD, a major forex pair representing the euro against the US dollar, is currently trading at 1.03000, with a target price of 1.11000. The pair is forming a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal signal that typically indicates a potential price breakout to the upside. This pattern develops as the price narrows between converging trendlines, reflecting decreasing selling pressure. Traders are closely monitoring the pair for a breakout confirmation, which would signal the start of a bullish trend. Once the breakout occurs, it is expected to drive the price toward the target level, offering a substantial upward move. Confirmation of the breakout is crucial to validate the pattern, as false breakouts are common in such setups. The falling wedge pattern is a strong technical indicator, attracting traders seeking to capitalize on a trend reversal. With the current price action nearing critical resistance levels, the pair is poised for significant movement, aligning with the forecasted target.
GBP/USD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on GBP/USD right now from the resistance line above with the target of 1.243 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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GBPUSD to continue in the downward move?GBPUSD - Intraday
The primary trend remains bearish.
Bullish divergence is expected to support prices.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 1.2350.
We look to Sell at 1.2350 (stop at 1.2380)
Our profit targets will be 1.2245 and 1.2225
Resistance: 1.2320 / 1.2360 / 1.2400
Support: 1.2240 / 1.2210 / 1.2180
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