Fundamental Market Analysis for April 14, 2025 GBPUSDThe initial market reaction to US President Donald Trump's decision last week to suspend sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days was short-lived amid heightened fears of a US recession amid an escalating trade war between the US and China. China's 84 per cent tariffs on US goods went into effect on Thursday, and Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145 per cent. Given that the US still imports a number of hard-to-replace materials from China, these developments have weakened confidence in the US economy.
Meanwhile, data released last week showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.1% in March, while core CPI rose +2.8% year-on-year, below consensus forecasts. In fact, markets are now pricing in the likelihood of a 90 basis point rate cut before the end of this year. Conversely, investors believe the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month is slightly less likely.
The aforementioned favourable fundamental backdrop supports a positive outlook for spot prices in the near term, although bulls seem reluctant to make aggressive bets and prefer to wait for important UK macro releases. Tuesday will see the release of the all-important monthly employment report, followed by the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, this week investors will be keeping an eye on the release of monthly US retail sales data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which will play a key role in influencing dollar price action. This, in turn, should give a significant impetus to the GBP/USD pair in the second half of the week.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD
GBPUSD H4 | Rising toward the key resistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.3013, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 1.3260, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.2864, a pullback support.
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GBPUSD Are the Bears back? I've been analyzing GBP/USD closely, and here's my outlook for this week. The pair is currently trading at 1.31123, testing a significant resistance zone that has been crucial in recent sessions. Technically, short-term indicators show overbought conditions—the RSI on the 1-minute chart is at 87, and Stochastic RSI is at extreme levels, both signaling a high probability of a rejection from resistance rather than a continued breakout.
Digging deeper into trend and momentum indicators, I see that ultra-short-term readings (such as the Aroon Oscillator on the 1- and 5-minute charts) are bullish, but longer-term indicators suggest waning momentum. Linear regression slopes and moving averages like KAMA and EMA indicate slowing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Average True Range (ATR) is low, signaling consolidation rather than strong trend continuation. Considering these factors, I expect a retracement soon and am watching 1.308–1.307 as potential entry points.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking great for the Pound. GBP economic releases this week—including BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation figures—are expected to show weakness. Softer retail sales and job growth numbers could weigh on GBP further. Meanwhile, the USD is strengthening, with upbeat Retail Sales data and an important speech from Fed Chair Powell likely reinforcing the Dollar's momentum.
Based on my analysis, I anticipate GBP/USD will move lower this week and am leaning toward a bearish trade. My plan is to wait for a rejection from resistance before entering a short position, ideally around 1.308 or lower.
Please note things do change so let's see what this week brings :) !
GBPUSD(20250414)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Collins: It is currently expected that the Fed will need to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period of time. If necessary, the Fed is "absolutely" ready to help stabilize the market; Kashkari: No serious chaos has been seen yet, and the Fed should intervene cautiously only in truly urgent situations; Musallem: The Fed should be wary of continued inflation driven by tariffs.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3064
Support and resistance levels:
1.3245
1.3177
1.3133
1.2995
1.2951
1.2883
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3133, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3177
If the price breaks through 1.3064, consider selling, the first target price is 1.2995
“EUR/USD Nears Wave (C) Climax – Will Smart Money Step In?”EUR/USD is approaching the final leg of its corrective A-B-C structure. With wave (C) targeting the 1.15–1.18 supply zone, a major reversal setup is brewing.
Wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction structure in play
Current bullish momentum likely completing wave (C)
Watch for potential 50% and 78% Fibonacci retracement zones for next sell setups
Embedded Wyckoff distribution schematic suggests institutional unloading soon
If you're tracking smart money, the final wave up could be the perfect setup to sell the rally once signs of distribution confirm.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supply Zone: 1.15–1.18 (Wave C Top)
First Demand: 50% zone
Deeper Demand: 78% retracement = high confluence
#EURUSD #ElliottWave #WyckoffMethod #SmartMoney #ForexForecast #WaveC
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“GBP/USD Bulls Eyeing the Final Wave V – Will Cable Hit the Targ”
The GBP/USD weekly chart is unfolding beautifully under Elliott Wave theory. After completing wave (iv), price is charging upward in wave (v) toward the final resistance zone around 1.38–1.42.
This impulsive structure is playing out textbook-style:
Wave 1–2–3–4–5 mapped clearly
Recent breakout confirms bullish strength
Wave (v) target aligned with historical supply zone
If you're riding the wave, keep eyes on short-term pullbacks for re-entry before the final leg completes!
Next Key Levels:
Pullback demand near 1.2750–1.2850
Major resistance in the 1.38–1.42 zone
Wave V completion zone = high probability reversal area
#GBPUSD #ElliottWave #ForexForecast #WaveAnalysis #FXTrading #CableAnaly
GBPUSD: Likely to maintain its upward momentum next weekTrump announced a 90-day suspension of the new tariff plan for most of his trading partners, which has, to some extent, reduced the systemic risks in the market and warmed up the risk appetite. The British pound, due to its nature as a risk currency, has become a beneficiary in the improvement of the global sentiment. At the same time, global stock markets plunged this week due to the uncertainty of trade policies, but the GBPUSD rose against the trend, indicating that the market has a strong bullish sentiment towards the British pound. This sentiment is likely to continue next week.
GBPUSD broke through some key resistance levels this week, such as the 1.3000 mark, opening up room for further upward movement. In the short term, although the RSI has reached a highly overbought level, if the bullish sentiment in the market is strong enough, the GBPUSD still has the potential to continue rising, breaking through the recent high of 1.3145. The next resistance levels might be at 1.3200 and even higher.
GBPUSD trading strategy
buy @:1.30400-1.30480
sl 1.29950
tp 1.30750-1.30810
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.Thank you!
GBPUSD What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GBPUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.3089 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.2979
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPUSD BIG DROP ?Market Structure Overview
Previous Trend: Strong bullish move after a long bearish trend.
Current Behavior: Price has entered a higher-timeframe supply zone (highlighted in green) and is showing signs of rejection.
Supply Zones:
Major Supply: 1.31750 – 1.32000
Minor Supply: 1.31000 – 1.31300
Demand Zones:
First Demand Zone: ~1.30380
Second Demand Zone: ~1.29919
📉 Trade Setup & Plan
🅰️ Primary Bias: Bearish Rejection from Supply
🔹 Scenario 1: Ideal Short Setup
Entry: Around current price (~1.30824) or after a retest of the 1.31000–1.31300 zone.
TP1: 1.30380 (first demand zone)
TP2: 1.29919 (second demand zone)
TP3 (extension): Below 1.29000 if momentum continues
SL: Above 1.31300 (to avoid fakeouts in supply)
🧩 Reasoning:
Price failed to break above supply with strong rejection wicks.
Break of structure + liquidity taken above local highs = possible start of bearish leg.
🔹 Scenario 2: Pullback Before Continuation Lower
Wait for Break of 1.30380, then look for pullback entries (break & retest).
Entry: On bearish confirmation after price retests 1.30380 zone from below.
TP: 1.29919, and if broken, continue to trail toward 1.2900s
✅ Extra Notes
Watch for rejection patterns (e.g., pin bars, engulfing candles) on the 15M or 30M to confirm entries.
Avoid entries during high-impact news, especially UK or US CPI, interest rate decisions, or NFP.
Manage risk wisely: Max 1-2% per trade.
GBPUSD. Weekly trading levels 14 - 18.04.2025During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
More information in my RU profile.
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GBP/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so GBP/USD is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 1.287.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPUSD | 11.04.2025SELL LIMIT 1.30400 | 1.31150 | TAKE 1.29200 | Let's consider a local corrective movement from the nearest highs downwards, after yesterday's price growth. The level of 1.30000 is currently the key level for further development of scenarios. We should not forget about the publication of important economic indicators for the pound.
Bitcoin is not going back to 100k anytime soon!!Good day traders, back against it with this bitcoin idea I’m currently on back on what price has shown us in recent weeks.
1W- Here price is still very much bearish as we can see that the market is in an expansion meaning any idea of price moving higher is what we all wish for but price does not care so overall here we bearish and need to be ready alert to price always wanting to move higher by taking recent highs.
4H- Now here we can see price shot higher for the liquidity that was resting above the recent broken highs, keeping in mind that our weekly bias is still bearish we than wanna see a shift in structure on the 1 hour TF to give us our first confirmation of many confirmations we use to come at a decision. After price respects our idea than we wanna see price go take the equal lows(Sellside liquidity) below.
Now I wanna make this bold prediction, and it’s my opinion by the way it’s not a fact or anything like that right. In my opinion I don’t think bitcoin will see 100k for the rest of 2025. And my prediction is based on my analysis only!!
What I'm expecting on the new week open..This is basically what my gut is telling me that is going to happen on Monday's open based on technical factors thought by ICT and my own spin on it.
TLDW; It looks like we are just going to start going up with very little retracement at the start of the week.
- R2F Trading
Gold TA 25.4.5Hello everyone, I hope you're doing well. In the 1-hour timeframe, the price of gold has taken a downward trend and has formed two lower lows. There is a very strong order block visible on the chart, and I expect that after the price retraces to this order block, it will react and continue to move down. We will wait for the price to reach this order block, then in the 5-minute timeframe, we will take the right trades and enter a short position. Keep in mind that in higher timeframes, the market is moving upwards, so short positions carry higher risk.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: GPTradersHub
📅 25.Apr.5
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better
GBP/USD - Weekly Elliott Wave Forecast | Potential B-Wave Trap!Pattern: Completed 5-Wave Impulse + ABC Zigzag Correction
Current Price: 1.3056
Forecast: Bearish B-Wave Reversal Incoming?
Technical Breakdown:
Major impulse from 2007 to 2022 marked as 1 to 5
A corrective ABC move completed at the key resistance zone
Price currently facing rejection from the C wave top
High probability of a B-Wave trap forming before a drop to the 1.14 zone
Strong confluence with historical structure and Fibonacci retracement
Next Move:
Watch for a weekly candle close below 1.28 to confirm the reversal. Bears may target the 1.14 zone in the next leg down.
Wave Structure Visualized (Top-Right Inset):
Shows possible B-Wave drop before bullish C continuation — a perfect trap zone for early bulls.
Trade Plan:
Short bias below 1.30 with SL above 1.32
Target: 1.18–1.14 zone
Re-assess price action near 1.14 for long opportunities
Stay Sharp, Stay Green!
GBPUSD, Is This Just a Pullback or a Full Reversal? 4/11 11:26amI’ve been closely analyzing GBP/USD, and right now, I’m assessing whether the recent drop is just a pullback within an uptrend or the start of a full reversal into bearish territory.
Pullback vs. Reversal: What I’m Looking For
Pullback Characteristics: A pullback is typically a short-lived dip before the trend resumes. If GBP/USD stabilizes around 1.3030–1.3050 and then rebounds, it would confirm that buyers are still in control and the overall bullish trend is intact. Moving averages (like EMA and KAMA) should continue to slope upward in that scenario.
Reversal Characteristics: A full reversal happens when price breaks major support levels (like 1.2990) and shows bearish confirmation—things like a bearish engulfing candle, lower highs/lows, and negative momentum signals. If key indicators (like RSI dropping below 30 and MACD turning negative) confirm the trend shift, then sellers are fully taking control.
Current Market Signs
GBP/USD fell sharply from 1.314, forming an M-shape pattern that often signals trend exhaustion.
If price fails to bounce near 1.3050, the likelihood of a full reversal increases.
Shorter timeframe indicators (like RSI and MACD) are showing slowing momentum, which reinforces the case for further downside.
My Verdict & Trade Decision
I’ve decided that this is looking more like a near-term reversal rather than just a pullback. Since price keeps failing to reclaim 1.3050, the bearish pressure remains strong. If we break below 1.2990, I expect a deeper decline into a full downtrend shift.
Final Trading Action
Closing my trade: Given everything I’m seeing, I’m closing my current long trade now to lock in profits and avoid further downside risk.
Future trade setup: If price rejects 1.3050 and starts rebounding, I’d consider re-entering long. However, if GBP/USD closes below 1.2990, I’ll switch to a short trade, targeting further downside.
Happy Friday!
GBPUSD: Short Trade Explained
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GBPUSD
Entry Level - 1.3065
Sl - 1.3132
Tp - 1.2929
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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