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Gbpusd_forecast

GBPUSD Shorts from 1.25500 down towards 1.24000This bias for GBPUSD this week is not as clean in terms of price entering an ideal zone however, it's still a possibility that could happen so let's look at how we could sell GU. As we know this market has been in a small uptrend recently but, I am still overall bearish (looking at the HTFs) Therefore, I would be waiting for price to enter a near by supply so we can at least sell down towards a demand zone to continue the temporary bullish trend. Currently, it is approaching a 9hr supply that has caused a small BOS to the downside and price will require some sort of pull back to continue going upwards, hence why this is a counter trend idea. We are also reaching a psychological level of 1.25500 which is another good sign to anticipate a reaction, as this would tell us if price would want to retrace or keep pushing higher. Confluences for GBPUSD shorts are as follows: - Price approaching 9hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - The zone also lies between a psychological key figure of 1.25500. - Pending correction is likely to happen due to the impulse move that has been taken place. - Lots of liquidity left below in the form of asian lows and there is huge imbalances as well. - Overall market trend for GU is bearish according to the monthly/weekly time frame. - Price has swept lots of liquidity already to the upside and momentum is dying down slowly. P.S. As price still looks pretty bullish I won't be surprised if this zone doesn't hold however, there is also better supply zones above like the 15hr which looks more probable. For now we will wait for our Wyckoff distribution to play out & see if price gives us an entry model for sells.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
GBPUSDThe GBP/USD exchange rate hovered around 1.25300, marking its highest point since early September. Despite gold surpassing the 2000 level, GBPUSD showed minimal fluctuations yesterday. The focus now turns to statements from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers regarding the policy outlook, which may influence the pair's movements in the short term. In contrast, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened lower, showing a 0.5% decline. Concurrently, US stock futures turned negative during the relatively calm Asian session. Should safe-haven sentiments return later in the day, the US dollar might experience a reprieve from its downward pressure, potentially limiting the upside for GBP/USD. The dollar's decline persisted on Tuesday, with traders anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes and US Existing Home Sales data. This trend follows Monday's market sentiment, where the USD index slipped below August lows, dropping below 104.00. The decline was exacerbated by US Treasury bond yields falling below 4.4%.
Long
by HUMCRYPTOCLUB
GBP/USD Holds Firm Above 1.2500 Amid BoE Comments GBP/USD saw an increase on Tuesday as the British Pound outperformed following hawkish comments from officials at the Bank of England. The currency pair is holding firm above the 1.2500 level despite the U.S. Dollar's adjustment. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, preceding 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July to October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, the initial support is at 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) before 1.2470, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, Simple Moving Average (SMA) 20, and the upper limit of the ascending regression channel intersect. Closing below this level may open up opportunities for a deeper correction towards 1.2400 (psychological level, static level). GBP/USD rose above 1.2500, reaching its highest point since early September, near 1.2550 on Tuesday. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers on policy outlook may influence the pair in the coming days. On Monday evening, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated they must monitor signs of persistent inflation that could warrant an interest rate hike. Bailey reiterated that such a policy would need to be constrained "for some time" and noted it's too early to contemplate rate cuts. Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday. If officials continue to convince the market that they don't necessarily need to raise interest rates, the British Pound may gather strength to resist its major counterparts. In U.S. trading sessions, economic data from the United States will reveal the Existing Home Sales figures for October, likely causing notable market reactions. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the meeting minutes from October 31 to November 1. Given the weak inflation data, prompting market speculation about the Fed's policy changes next year, comments in this release may already be outdated. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened lower, last seen down 0.5%. Similarly, U.S. stock futures turned positive after a quiet Asian trading session. If safe-haven inflows return to the market in the latter half of the day, the U.S. Dollar may escape downward pressure, limiting GBP/USD's upward momentum.
by Larissa-Trader
1
GBPUSD 4H : Uptrend GBPUSD New forecast The GBP/USD pair faced additional negative pressure yesterday to break the 1.2406 level, and begins the day with further decline to reach the end point of the negative correction. Therefore ,we still prefer the upward trend and still upward scenario will be remain valid supported by moving average 50that is continue to support the price to rise up and our target will be 1.2447 and extend to 1.2508 , taking into account that stabilized under 1.2365 will put the price under sell pressure and postponed the bullish trend . The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2447 and support line 1.2365. Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 1.2365 , 1.2321 resistance line : 1.2447 , 1.2508 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Long
by Arazmajeed
11
GBP/USD Surges Amid Weakening USDThe GBP/USD pair garnered buying interest during the Asian trading session on Monday, reaching a three-day high around the 1.2470 region. Despite this, the spot price remains below the key resistance of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the psychological level of 1.2500 and the two-month high touched last week. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to register any meaningful recovery and remains near its lowest level since September 1, serving as a primary support factor for the GBP/USD pair. Reports on US CPI and PPI released last week indicated that the inflation nightmare has finally subsided. This allows the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its stance in the December meeting, exerting downward pressure on the USD. Furthermore, markets are assessing the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in early 2024 and designing a soft landing for the economy. This has pushed the yield on the 10-year US government bond to its lowest in two months at 4.379% on Friday. Additionally, the overall positive trend in the Asian stock markets weakens the safe-haven appeal of the greenback, further supporting the GBP/USD pair. However, markets have set expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) to commence interest rate cuts from their 15-year highs amid looming economic recession risks. Betting odds have been reaffirmed by weaker UK retail sales figures, adding to a series of negative information from the previous week and aligning with the gloomy prospects of the UK economy. This may impede any further upward movement for the GBP/USD pair. Even from a technical standpoint, last week's rejection near the 1.2500 level or the 100-day SMA barrier suggests caution, prompting traders to wait for a strong buying surge before betting on new price hikes. In the absence of any relevant economic information from the UK or the US, USD price dynamics will continue to play a crucial role in influencing the GBP/USD pair, allowing traders to seize short-term opportunities.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Strengthens Above 1.2400 Amid Dollar Challenges"The GBP/USD pair consolidates its overnight slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the psychological level of 1.2500, or the two-month high, trading in a narrow range in Thursday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the spot price attempts to hold above the significant 1.2400 mark, contingent on the price dynamics of the U.S. Dollar (USD). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the modest recovery from its lowest since September 1, amid the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations. These bets were reassessed after Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, indicating a milder-than-expected decline in consumer inflation, suggesting a cooling economy. Furthermore, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, driving down U.S. Treasury bond yields and acting as a hurdle for the greenback. Additionally, the prevailing risk-acceptance environment is seen weakening the safe-haven status, providing some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the upward trend is constrained as more anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) initiating interest rate cuts soon, reinforced by a slight drop in UK consumer inflation on Wednesday. In fact, the UK's monthly CPI remained unchanged, and the annual rate plummeted sharply from 6.7% to 4.6% in October – hitting a two-year low. Moreover, the core CPI also decreased from 6.1% in September to 5.7%. The mixed fundamental backdrop ensures caution among risk-seeking traders, waiting for clear short-term direction, especially with no significant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar includes regular weekly jobless claims, the Fed Philly Manufacturing Index, and industrial production figures. This, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, may influence USD price dynamics and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Slips to 1.2450 on Weak UK Inflation DataGBP/USD faces modest downward pressure, dropping to 1.2450 in European trading on Wednesday. UK CPI inflation fell to 4.6% YoY in October from 6.7% in September, causing the British Pound to lose ground. The pair struggles to find firm footing above the 1.2300 level on daily closing basis, potentially paving the way for an extended recovery toward the psychological level of 1.2350. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points upwards around the midline, indicating an ongoing upward momentum for the pair. The next resistance level is envisioned at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2437. However, if the upward trend stalls, immediate support will likely be seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.2255, below which the 21-day SMA at 1.2205 may test bullish commitments. Further decline could challenge the 1.2100 demand area. The extended three-day recovery of GBP/USD in European trading on Tuesday, driven by positive mixed employment data in the UK, appears to be limited as traders exercise caution ahead of the highly significant US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The outcome of Wednesday's UK inflation data could significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, adding volatility to the British Pound. Ahead of the crucial US CPI data, FXStreet's Senior Analyst Yohay Elam notes that unexpected results above 0.2% could lead to market reevaluation. A surprise decline in inflation might fuel Wall Street's rally while exerting pressure on the US Dollar. However, an as-expected release may immediately positively affect stocks and create pressure on the US Dollar, even if the core CPI remains high. Simultaneously, the pair may receive signals from improving risk sentiment, reflected in the slight uptick of 0.12% in the US S&P 500 futures contract.
by Gwen_Humuna
The US dollar has risen sharply. Expect the British pound to falThe dollar remains well-valued after yesterday's US data further buoyed US yields and reinforced calls for a 25-point hike from the Federal Reserve in July. The economy grew at a revised 2% quarterly rate and initial claims fell sharply again, giving markets the impression that the Fed still has work to do. Dollar strength was evident yesterday across all sectors. The main hot spot is still USD/JPY. It looks like the Bank of Japan is ready to intervene above the 145 level - just like they did last September. Back today. The May core PCE deflator is expected to remain steady at 0.3% to 0.4% from the previous month, consistent with the Fed's view that core inflation is not falling fast enough. This will keep the US dollar exchange rate stable. EUR: Eurozone CPI may provide some support. Following the release of European inflation data in recent days, the euro zone core inflation rate in June is expected to have come in at 5.5% year-on-year, compared with 5.3% in May. This data could push the market to price a 25 basis point increase from the European Central Bank in July and September. Currently, the market is only pricing in a combined increase of 37 basis points in these two meetings . The ECB offers the euro some protection against a very aggressive Fed, even as the two-year EUR/USD spread widens further to 120 points in favor of the dollar.
Short
by AstronautPioneer
GBP/USD Maintains Uptrend Above 1.2250 GBP/USD saw an increase from the 20-day SMA to 1.2280 on Monday and is consolidating around 1.2275 in the early Asian trading session, supported by the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. Attention is shifting towards employment data in the UK and crucial US CPI figures on Tuesday. The currency pair reversed its direction after testing the 1.2200 level, with an upward trending line, the 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligning, emphasizing the significance of the support level and the sellers' hesitation. On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.2260 (SMA50) followed by 1.2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2340 (static level). Support levels are set at 1.2200, 1.2140 (static), and 1.2100 (psychological level). What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
💡 GBPUSD: Next prediction➡️ The anticipation for a reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England in 2024 remains steady, albeit now leaning towards a decrease of approximately 75 basis points. The central bank appears intent on tempering exaggerated market expectations regarding a forthcoming interest rate cut. Given that the enduring impacts of previous interest rate hikes have yet to permeate the economy, there is an anticipation of subdued economic growth in the future. This is expected to provide considerable support for the pound; however, the immediate trajectory of UK government bond yields remains uncertain. ➡️ Observing the GBP/USD pair, it is evident that the currency continues its downward fluctuations following a recovery, currently tracking below the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Concurrently, the MACD double line and histogram bar display a downward momentum expansion around the zero axis once again, indicating a continued short-term decline for GBP/USD.
Short
by Stone_Haven
GBPUSD Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaConducting a thorough analysis of GBPUSD charts reveals a retracement from its recent peak, notably observed on the 1D timeframe, signaling a significant pullback. The key question is whether this retracement will intensify or if there's potential for a rotation at the current level, aiming for liquidity beyond prior highs. Our video explores various time frames, ultimately pinpointing a potential trading opportunity based on market structure, price dynamics, trend analysis, and other crucial elements of technical evaluation. It's essential to underscore that the insights shared here are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Participation in the foreign exchange market and cryptocurrency trading inherently involves a substantial level of risk. Therefore, it is imperative to strategically incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to adeptly navigate the challenges associated with these markets.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
Israel's military is still tenseUS President Joe Biden's administration is concerned that Israel is trying to provoke a war in Lebanon, causing it to risk becoming a regional war, Axios news portal cited sources as saying. “Some in the Biden administration are concerned that Israel is trying to provoke (Lebanese Shiite movement) Hezbollah and create a pretext for a larger war in Lebanon that risks drawing in the US and other countries conflict", - the news said. According to sources, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a phone conversation last week with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant expressed concern about Israel's role in escalating tensions with Lebanon. An Israeli army soldier advances during an exercise at a position in Israel's northern Galilee region near the border with Lebanon - Sputnik Vietnam, 1920, November 12, 2023 Palestinian-Israeli conflict tensions Israel wages a war of attrition in southern Lebanon According to this news portal, Mr. Austin's message reflects growing concerns in the White House that Israel's military actions in Lebanon are increasing tensions along the border and risk leading to a war. paintings on a regional scale.
Long
by AstronautPioneer
GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Level After UK GDPGBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a better-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. The ascending trendline, the Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-period SMA collectively form a robust support level at 1.2200. If GBP/USD drops below this level and confirms it as resistance, the next downside targets could be set at 1,2140 (static level) and 1,2100 (static level). On the upside, 1,2250 (SMA 50) is considered a dynamic resistance level ahead of 1,2275 (SMA 20) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
by Larissa-Trader
The Japanese Yen market is in declineFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a recent International Monetary Fund research conference that Fed officials are still unsure whether current interest rates are high enough to effectively combat inflation. This suggests further rate hikes may be imminent. Powell said the Fed aims to keep monetary policy tight enough to reduce inflation to 2% over the long term. However, he expressed uncertainty as to whether this goal had been achieved. He also noted that the Fed may be reaching the limits of its ability to ease price pressures by improving the supply of goods, services and labor. Powell's comments widened the S&P 500's decline, with the index down 0.69% in the previous announcement. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly, most recently at 4.638%. The US dollar index also rose 0.41%. Market strategists interpreted Powell's comments based on their potential impact. Vasili Serebryakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, believes Powell's comments do not provide significant new information but are viewed by the market as hawkishell
Short
by AstronautPioneer