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GBP/USD Strengthens Above 1.2400 Amid Dollar Challenges"The GBP/USD pair consolidates its overnight slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the psychological level of 1.2500, or the two-month high, trading in a narrow range in Thursday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the spot price attempts to hold above the significant 1.2400 mark, contingent on the price dynamics of the U.S. Dollar (USD). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the modest recovery from its lowest since September 1, amid the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations. These bets were reassessed after Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, indicating a milder-than-expected decline in consumer inflation, suggesting a cooling economy. Furthermore, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, driving down U.S. Treasury bond yields and acting as a hurdle for the greenback. Additionally, the prevailing risk-acceptance environment is seen weakening the safe-haven status, providing some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the upward trend is constrained as more anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) initiating interest rate cuts soon, reinforced by a slight drop in UK consumer inflation on Wednesday. In fact, the UK's monthly CPI remained unchanged, and the annual rate plummeted sharply from 6.7% to 4.6% in October – hitting a two-year low. Moreover, the core CPI also decreased from 6.1% in September to 5.7%. The mixed fundamental backdrop ensures caution among risk-seeking traders, waiting for clear short-term direction, especially with no significant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar includes regular weekly jobless claims, the Fed Philly Manufacturing Index, and industrial production figures. This, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, may influence USD price dynamics and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Slips to 1.2450 on Weak UK Inflation DataGBP/USD faces modest downward pressure, dropping to 1.2450 in European trading on Wednesday. UK CPI inflation fell to 4.6% YoY in October from 6.7% in September, causing the British Pound to lose ground. The pair struggles to find firm footing above the 1.2300 level on daily closing basis, potentially paving the way for an extended recovery toward the psychological level of 1.2350. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points upwards around the midline, indicating an ongoing upward momentum for the pair. The next resistance level is envisioned at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2437. However, if the upward trend stalls, immediate support will likely be seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.2255, below which the 21-day SMA at 1.2205 may test bullish commitments. Further decline could challenge the 1.2100 demand area. The extended three-day recovery of GBP/USD in European trading on Tuesday, driven by positive mixed employment data in the UK, appears to be limited as traders exercise caution ahead of the highly significant US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The outcome of Wednesday's UK inflation data could significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, adding volatility to the British Pound. Ahead of the crucial US CPI data, FXStreet's Senior Analyst Yohay Elam notes that unexpected results above 0.2% could lead to market reevaluation. A surprise decline in inflation might fuel Wall Street's rally while exerting pressure on the US Dollar. However, an as-expected release may immediately positively affect stocks and create pressure on the US Dollar, even if the core CPI remains high. Simultaneously, the pair may receive signals from improving risk sentiment, reflected in the slight uptick of 0.12% in the US S&P 500 futures contract.
by Gwen_Humuna
The US dollar has risen sharply. Expect the British pound to falThe dollar remains well-valued after yesterday's US data further buoyed US yields and reinforced calls for a 25-point hike from the Federal Reserve in July. The economy grew at a revised 2% quarterly rate and initial claims fell sharply again, giving markets the impression that the Fed still has work to do. Dollar strength was evident yesterday across all sectors. The main hot spot is still USD/JPY. It looks like the Bank of Japan is ready to intervene above the 145 level - just like they did last September. Back today. The May core PCE deflator is expected to remain steady at 0.3% to 0.4% from the previous month, consistent with the Fed's view that core inflation is not falling fast enough. This will keep the US dollar exchange rate stable. EUR: Eurozone CPI may provide some support. Following the release of European inflation data in recent days, the euro zone core inflation rate in June is expected to have come in at 5.5% year-on-year, compared with 5.3% in May. This data could push the market to price a 25 basis point increase from the European Central Bank in July and September. Currently, the market is only pricing in a combined increase of 37 basis points in these two meetings . The ECB offers the euro some protection against a very aggressive Fed, even as the two-year EUR/USD spread widens further to 120 points in favor of the dollar.
Short
by AstronautPioneer
GBP/USD Maintains Uptrend Above 1.2250 GBP/USD saw an increase from the 20-day SMA to 1.2280 on Monday and is consolidating around 1.2275 in the early Asian trading session, supported by the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. Attention is shifting towards employment data in the UK and crucial US CPI figures on Tuesday. The currency pair reversed its direction after testing the 1.2200 level, with an upward trending line, the 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligning, emphasizing the significance of the support level and the sellers' hesitation. On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.2260 (SMA50) followed by 1.2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2340 (static level). Support levels are set at 1.2200, 1.2140 (static), and 1.2100 (psychological level). What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
💡 GBPUSD: Next prediction➡️ The anticipation for a reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England in 2024 remains steady, albeit now leaning towards a decrease of approximately 75 basis points. The central bank appears intent on tempering exaggerated market expectations regarding a forthcoming interest rate cut. Given that the enduring impacts of previous interest rate hikes have yet to permeate the economy, there is an anticipation of subdued economic growth in the future. This is expected to provide considerable support for the pound; however, the immediate trajectory of UK government bond yields remains uncertain. ➡️ Observing the GBP/USD pair, it is evident that the currency continues its downward fluctuations following a recovery, currently tracking below the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Concurrently, the MACD double line and histogram bar display a downward momentum expansion around the zero axis once again, indicating a continued short-term decline for GBP/USD.
Short
by Stone_Haven
GBPUSD Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaConducting a thorough analysis of GBPUSD charts reveals a retracement from its recent peak, notably observed on the 1D timeframe, signaling a significant pullback. The key question is whether this retracement will intensify or if there's potential for a rotation at the current level, aiming for liquidity beyond prior highs. Our video explores various time frames, ultimately pinpointing a potential trading opportunity based on market structure, price dynamics, trend analysis, and other crucial elements of technical evaluation. It's essential to underscore that the insights shared here are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Participation in the foreign exchange market and cryptocurrency trading inherently involves a substantial level of risk. Therefore, it is imperative to strategically incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to adeptly navigate the challenges associated with these markets.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
Israel's military is still tenseUS President Joe Biden's administration is concerned that Israel is trying to provoke a war in Lebanon, causing it to risk becoming a regional war, Axios news portal cited sources as saying. “Some in the Biden administration are concerned that Israel is trying to provoke (Lebanese Shiite movement) Hezbollah and create a pretext for a larger war in Lebanon that risks drawing in the US and other countries conflict", - the news said. According to sources, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a phone conversation last week with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant expressed concern about Israel's role in escalating tensions with Lebanon. An Israeli army soldier advances during an exercise at a position in Israel's northern Galilee region near the border with Lebanon - Sputnik Vietnam, 1920, November 12, 2023 Palestinian-Israeli conflict tensions Israel wages a war of attrition in southern Lebanon According to this news portal, Mr. Austin's message reflects growing concerns in the White House that Israel's military actions in Lebanon are increasing tensions along the border and risk leading to a war. paintings on a regional scale.
Long
by AstronautPioneer
GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Level After UK GDPGBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a better-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. The ascending trendline, the Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-period SMA collectively form a robust support level at 1.2200. If GBP/USD drops below this level and confirms it as resistance, the next downside targets could be set at 1,2140 (static level) and 1,2100 (static level). On the upside, 1,2250 (SMA 50) is considered a dynamic resistance level ahead of 1,2275 (SMA 20) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
by Larissa-Trader
The Japanese Yen market is in declineFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a recent International Monetary Fund research conference that Fed officials are still unsure whether current interest rates are high enough to effectively combat inflation. This suggests further rate hikes may be imminent. Powell said the Fed aims to keep monetary policy tight enough to reduce inflation to 2% over the long term. However, he expressed uncertainty as to whether this goal had been achieved. He also noted that the Fed may be reaching the limits of its ability to ease price pressures by improving the supply of goods, services and labor. Powell's comments widened the S&P 500's decline, with the index down 0.69% in the previous announcement. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly, most recently at 4.638%. The US dollar index also rose 0.41%. Market strategists interpreted Powell's comments based on their potential impact. Vasili Serebryakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, believes Powell's comments do not provide significant new information but are viewed by the market as hawkishell
Short
by AstronautPioneer
Turmoil in US stock indexes will lead to declines.The focus is on the impending publication of the UK's third quarter GDP data, which is expected to influence the Bank of England's (BOE) monetary policy in December. Prime Minister Swati Dhingra is considering the possibility of cutting interest rates if growth numbers do not meet expectations. UK economic activity was weighed down in the third quarter by factors including a fall in consumer spending, a slump in the services PMI, weak property demand and a decline in employment. This situation has kept the GBP/USD pair stable around 1.2300 despite the drop in US Treasury yields after three consecutive days of negative closes. On the same day, market attention also turned to potential USD influencers. These include new jobless claims data released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and the tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to the IMF board. Powell's dovish tone could have a significant impact on the USD, leading to a weaker USD and supporting a GBP/USD recovery. In addition to these trends, the crypto market trends at the end of the year are bullish. This trend is reinforced by a sharp decline in his VIX index (HM:VIX), indicating rising risk sentiment as the market awaits his Fed's expected monetary policy decisions. . On Wednesday, November 8, 2023, GBP/USD recorded its third consecutive negative closing price. The pair is stable near 1.2300, a level that could attract technical buyers if confirmed as support. Despite downward pressure on the USD from falling US bond yields, market caution is preventing a full recovery in GBP/USD.
Short
by AstronautPioneer
GBPUSD 4H : Wait for breach the support zone GBPUSD New forecast The pound sterling pair against the dollar is trading with noticeable negativity as it approaches retesting the resistance area, which constitutes important support at 1.2312, and the price needs to consolidate below this level for the bearish scenario to remain effective, whose next target is at 1.2270 extend to 1.2192. Therefore, we will continue to favor the downward trend, provided it remains below level 1.2312 for the coming period, taking into account that breaking 1.2321 will stop the expected decline and put pressure on the price to rise again. The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2365 and support line 1.2270. Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 1.2312 , 1.2270 resistance line : 1.2321 , 1.2365 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Short
by Arazmajeed
5
GBPUSD Trade Plan Timeframe: 1HGBPUSD Trade Plan Timeframe: 1H #Forex #GBPUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoSignal #TradingOpportunity #Divergence #TradingSignal #TradingwithBelieve Hey traders! 👋 Let's dive into a potential trading opportunity on the GBPUSD pair using technical analysis. 📊 📉 Previously bullish Trend: Firstly, on the 1H- timeframe, we've been witnessing a Bullish trend in the GBPUSD pair. 🐻 🔄 Divergence on HH: However, it's crucial to note that recently, we have started to observe a divergence pattern on the HH. This is an important signal that the Bullish momentum might be weakening. 📉🔄 📊 Trade Opportunity: Currently, we are looking at a potential trade opportunity with a Bearish bias. 📈 Entry Price: 1.23860 🎯 Stop Loss Level: 1.24306 🚀TP1: 1.23420 🚀TP2: 1.22981 💰 Investment Advice: Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's essential to have a well-defined trading plan, proper risk management, and stop-loss orders in place. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Make sure to do your research and consider your risk tolerance before entering any trade. Happy trading, and may the pips be in your favour! 🚀📈💰 #HappyTrading #ProfitOpportunity #TradeSmart #CryptoSignal #StockSignal #TradingwithBelieve
Long
by TradingwithBelieve
GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis - Short-Term OutlookGBP/USD Technical Analysis with Sentiment Data: Current Price and Support Levels: As of the latest close, GBP/USD is trading at 1.23791. It's important to consider that the current price is in close proximity to significant support levels at 1.23784, 1.23141, and 1.22637. These levels have historically acted as robust areas of price support, potentially attracting buying interest. Major Resistance Levels: On the other hand, the current price is also approaching major resistance levels within the range of 1.23895 to 1.23897 and 1.24213. These are substantial price zones where traders may contemplate taking profits or initiating short positions if GBP/USD reaches these levels. Short-Term Outlook: Given the technical analysis, my inclination towards a short position with the target of revisiting the 3rd support level at 1.22637 as a pullback appears technically sound. Should the price fail to breach the immediate resistance levels and begins to retreat, it could discover support around the levels which I've identified. Sentiment Analysis: It's noteworthy that, based on sentiment data (Myfxbook), 76% of traders are currently in short positions, representing 11,193.20 lots, while 24% are in long positions, accounting for 3,505.61 lots. This indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with a significantly higher number of traders shorting GBP/USD compared to those taking long positions. Specifically, 35,217 traders are short, while 11,825 are long, which further emphasizes the bearish sentiment. Additional Considerations: Market Sentiment: With the majority of traders holding short positions, it aligns with my short-term outlook. However, we have to keep a close eye on market sentiment as it can change rapidly. Longer-Term Perspective: Maintain a broader perspective even though my primary focus is on the short-term. GBP/USD can be influenced by extended economic trends and political events, so staying well-informed about these influences is imperative. Routine Monitoring: Continuously monitor price action, market sentiment, and adjust strategy in response to evolving market conditions. Remember, trading in the forex market carries inherent risks, and it's vital to maintain a well-defined trading strategy and risk management plan. Seek guidance from a financial advisor or conduct further research before executing any trading decisions. VANTAGE:GBPUSD $XM:GBPUSD #GBPUSD #EAForexGlobal
Short
by EAForexGlobal