Gbpusdanalysis
GBPUSD I Swing long opportunity with upcoming fundamentalsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD retest of supportGBPUSD is moving under an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is above the support level coinciding with the 62% retracement level.
We expect a rebound after the support retest is completed.
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD growth in the channelGBPUSD is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price touched the lower boundary of the channel and returned to the trend line.
The chart reacted with growth on reaching the range between 50% and 62% retracement levels.
We expect a rebound from the support.
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD a pullback from the trend lineGBPUSD is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The chart has formed a reversal harmonic pattern.
Having reached the level of dynamic resistance, the price sharply went down, which has already happened on the chart for the second time.
The pair touched the dynamic support.
We expect the continuation of the pullback to the correction level.
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Scenario for GBSUSDAccording to the technical analysis that I presented here, at the moment there is an important support for us, which is located at the price level of 1.3060, if the bulls manage to significantly break through this level, then we can see a movement somewhere around the price level of 1.3260, which is located with levels of 0.5-0.618 fibo.
GBPUSD - Look for Continuation Long (SWING) 1:5!GBPUSD is displaying a gradual bullish momentum following a strong upward trend on the HTF. After breaking the HTF key resistance level, it corrected to the nearest Demand Zone. On the LTF, GBPUSD appears to be accumulating before resuming an upward trend toward the Supply Zone, where a reversal market structure may form, supported by the DVX.
Disclaimer:
This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
GBPUSD Ready for a breakthroughHello Traders
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD reached supportGBPUSD is moving in a descending channel above the support level.
The chart maintains the descending structure.
The price has already reached the lower boundary of the channel.
We expect the rebound to continue.
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GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves.
UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability
Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market.
However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session.
US Data and Market Outlook
The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar.
Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead?
From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level.
Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals.
Conclusion
GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions.
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Will the Pound Show a Slight Bullish Bias Today? (15/10/2024)The GBPUSD pair is expected to display a slight bullish bias today, 15/10/2024, based on the latest fundamental factors and market conditions. Traders and investors are closely watching the movements in the British pound against the U.S. dollar, as the market sentiment shifts amid key macroeconomic events. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers supporting this outlook:
1. UK Economic Data: CPI Expectations
The UK inflation report, which is set to be released later this week, is on the radar for traders. Early forecasts indicate that inflation may remain slightly elevated, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. This anticipation tends to lend strength to the pound, as higher interest rates make a currency more attractive to investors seeking better yields.
In recent months, the BoE has been steadfast in its approach to combating inflation, a stance that has provided support for the British pound, making GBPUSD sensitive to any inflation-related news. With inflation still a concern, a bullish bias for the pound can be justified, particularly in the lead-up to the CPI report.
2. US Dollar Softness: Lower Treasury Yields
On the U.S. side, the U.S. dollar (USD) has seen some softness due to declining Treasury yields and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of interest rates. Last week’s economic data pointed to potential cooling in the U.S. labor market and lower inflationary pressures, which have reduced the market's expectations for further rate hikes in 2024.
With the Federal Reserve signaling that it may be nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar’s recent rally has stalled, giving room for pairs like GBPUSD to gain traction. This contributes to the bullish bias in the pair for today.
3. UK Political Stability and Brexit Sentiment
Another factor supporting the pound’s slight bullish stance is the current phase of relative political stability in the UK. After the volatile post-Brexit years, the UK government is focused on stabilizing the economy. Any developments or positive sentiment surrounding trade agreements with the EU or other major trading partners could further boost the pound's strength.
Brexit-related concerns have been less dominant recently, which has helped reduce the uncertainty that previously weighed on the pound. If this political calm continues, the GBPUSD pair could benefit from increased investor confidence in the pound.
4. Technical Analysis: Support at 1.2150
From a technical analysis perspective, the GBPUSD has found solid support around the 1.2150 level, which has held strong in recent trading sessions. As long as this support remains intact, the pair has the potential to make upward moves. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bullish reversal.
If the pair manages to break above the 1.2200 resistance level, we could see further gains towards the next key resistance level of 1.2300.
5. Global Market Sentiment
In the broader market context, risk sentiment is playing a significant role in driving currency movements. If global markets continue to show risk-on sentiment, with equity markets rising and risk assets in favor, the British pound could see additional support against the U.S. dollar.
Given the factors of strong inflation expectations in the UK, a softer U.S. dollar, and a technical setup that supports higher prices, the GBPUSD may be positioned for slight bullish movement today.
Conclusion
In conclusion, today’s GBPUSD outlook points towards a slightly bullish bias . While the U.S. dollar continues to show signs of weakness amid lower Treasury yields and potential pauses in the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the British pound is drawing strength from expected higher inflation in the UK, the BoE’s hawkish stance, and a generally stable political environment. Traders should watch the upcoming inflation data and key resistance levels to confirm this bullish trend.
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DeGRAM | GBPUSD reaching the upper boundary of the channelGBPUSD is moving in a descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has reached the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic resistance, which it immediately responded to with a decline.
The pair continues to be under the 62% retracement level.
The chart keeps the descending structure.
We expect the price decline to continue.
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GBP/USD Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected on 14/10/2024The GBP/USD pair is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, supported by a combination of key fundamental drivers and technical factors. Traders and investors in the forex market should remain vigilant as several economic data releases and geopolitical events could shape the pair’s movements. Below is a comprehensive analysis highlighting the key factors driving this potential bullish bias for GBP/USD.
1. UK Economic Outlook
One of the major drivers for a possible bullish momentum in GBP/USD is the recent strength in the UK economy. Despite some challenges in the global economic landscape, the UK has shown resilience, particularly with stronger-than-expected GDP growth and robust retail sales. UK inflation remains elevated, with the CPI figures suggesting sustained price pressure, which could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider further tightening measures. A hawkish stance from the BoE, which is already maintaining higher interest rates, would support a stronger pound, adding to the bullish sentiment in the market.
2. US Dollar Weakness
The US dollar is showing signs of exhaustion after a prolonged period of strength. USD weakness is being driven by softer inflation data, with the recent CPI report showing cooling price pressures in the US economy. The Federal Reserve may lean toward a more dovish stance, refraining from further aggressive rate hikes. This has caused the dollar to lose some of its safe-haven appeal, providing room for the pound to gain ground against the greenback.
3. Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment
The broader market sentiment is being influenced by geopolitical tensions , especially in the Middle East and Europe. Risk-off sentiment tends to favor the US dollar, but given the recent easing of these concerns, market participants may shift back to higher-yielding assets like the pound. A relief in risk sentiment can boost the GBP/USD pair, pushing it toward higher levels.
4. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
On the technical front, GBP/USD is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend in the short term. The pair has found strong support around the 1.2100 psychological level, with upward momentum suggesting a test of the 1.2250 resistance level. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trending upwards, confirming the bullish bias, while MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also shows strengthening momentum.
5. Key Data Releases to Watch
Traders should keep an eye on upcoming data releases for further clues on the GBP/USD trajectory:
- UK Unemployment Rate: A stable or better-than-expected figure could lend support to the pound.
- US Retail Sales: Any softness in the US retail sector could further weaken the dollar.
- BoE Governor Bailey's Speech: Any comments on future monetary policy tightening could provide additional bullish support to the pound.
Conclusion
The GBP/USD is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias today, driven by strong UK economic fundamentals, cooling US inflation, and broader market sentiment. The technical setup also favors upside potential, with the pair poised to target higher resistance levels. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor key data releases that could shift market dynamics throughout the day.
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