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Gbpusdsetup

GBPUSD Gonna Pullback & DownMarket Price Action Structure is Key! Technically, In weekly RSI; Its Over Sold; In Daily & 4H its strong bullish divergence! 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 1. SEE THE FUNDAMENTAL! 2. WHAT IS THE OVERALL TREND? PRICE ACTION WILL GIVE YOU CLUE! 3. IS PRICE AT A LEVEL OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND (SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE)? 4. IS PRICE APPROACHING A LEVEL OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND (SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE)? 5. ARE YOU TRADING WITH THE TREND OR AGAINST THE TREND (MAKE SURE YOU ONLY TRADE AGAINST THE TREND ON THE 4HR TIME-FRAME AND ABOVE. 6. AND MUST CHECK THE DIVERGENCE.
Long
by mahfuzazim_TA
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View- DXY is currently at 104.43 LEVEL. Above the DXY 100 is a very good STRONG condition. Also the GBP FEATURE stays at 1.2227 LEVEL. GBPUSD PRICE has gone below DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Maybe DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS can be UP before moving further. Then most of the time the PRICE can be sold in the form of STRUCTURE. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also the EQUITIES are turning a bit red. VIX INDEXES UP UP. Also COMMODITIES are now showing a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently the MARKET has a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. So be on the lookout, maybe in the NEWYORK SESSION in the market, maybe because it's RISK ON today, Monday. - GBPUSD PRICE can be UP to 1.2407 LEVEL before DOWN. After that it can be DOWN to 1.1950 LEVEL. According to this week's ECONOMIC INDICATOR DATA and MARKET SENTIMENT. Then GBPUSD UP to 1.2915 LEVEL can be USD if a NEGATIVE SENTIMENT is received. FED UPDATES are very important for that.
by benny_marshall
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new weekThe GBPUSD is trading to a new session high since the beginning of last week and has reached its 32.8% retracement of the week's downward trading range as bears refused to give up. However, from a technical perspective; As at the close of the trading week price action is oscillating right within a strong demand zone that has a memory for buying power that spans over 6 years and we might be looking forward to an opportunity to join a potential retracement wave into 50 to 78.6% retracement before a projected selling opportunity within 1.26 and 1.29 area in the near future. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
GBPUSDThe British Pound fell sharply last week to reach a new 18-month low against the US Dollar. European currencies excepting the Euro are generally weak, but the Pound is showing standout weakness after the Bank of England forecast British inflation would exceed 10% by the end of 2022. The fall in GBP/USD on Thursday was unusually strong and produced a small but significant follow-through in bearish momentum over the next day. With a still-strong US Dollar, and Pound weakness driven by fundamental forecasts, the price here looks likely to fall further over the coming days. However, bears need to beware the support level at $1.2314. I will be prepared to enter a new short trade if we get a daily (New York) close below $1.2314.
Short
by SmoothJB
GBPUSDThe British pound had a horrible session during the day on Thursday, as the 1.26 level has offered massive resistance. The turnaround after the Federal Reserve meeting is short-lived, to say the least, as we have broken down quite drastically. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to go lower based on the size of this candlestick, and of course, the fact that we are closing towards the very bottom of the range. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it means that we should see plenty of momentum in this market so that it goes much lower. Keep in mind that the US dollar continues to be the strongest currency that I follow in general, and I think that the British pound is not going to be able to put up much in the way of a fight against it. The Bank of England is looking to keep quite a bit of the asset on its balance sheet, unlike the Federal Reserve, which is looking to run those balance sheets down. This does favor the US dollar and the monetary tightening policy will continue to be the main driver. At this juncture, I think that a breakdown below the 1.25 level signifies that we are going to go down to the 1.23 handle, perhaps even down to the 1.22 level. With that being said, I would expect a short-term rally, but that rally will almost certainly be sold into. I have no interest in buying this pair obviously, but if we were to turn around a break above the highs of the last two days, it would be a very bullish sign, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move to the 50 Day EMA. The 50 Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, especially as it is now crossing below the 1.30 level. At this juncture, the market looks very likely to continue being bearish, but you may have to go down to short-term charts for entry signals. Those signals continue to be an invitation to get US dollars “on the cheap”, which is exactly the environment we have been in for a while. Ultimately, I do not see how this changes anytime soon, especially as the Federal Reserve is going to do a couple of 50 basis point rate hikes in a row.
Short
by SmoothJB
GBPUSDThe GBP/USD had a difficult performance in April as the strength of the US dollar continued. The pair attempted to recover on Friday but it found a strong resistance at 1.2615. It has now pulled back and moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The Stochastic Oscillator moved from the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as investors target last month’s low of 1.2410. It will then bounce back after the BOE decision.
Short
by SmoothJB
GBPUSD - OUTLOOK GBPUSD - OUTLOOK GBPUSD has simply responded to DXY movements and it will stay this way until after the HIKE RATE, please read the DXY post as this will help you understand this post. GBPUSD still has room to dip further and I expect another dip before we have a bullish impulse. It's a waiting game and we need to wait for the HIKE RATE dust to settle before we take a trade. Make sure you use the link below to follow us more closely! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pip count this week 💰🏆 +1035 pips WTI SHORT / 74 pips ✅ GBPUSD LONG / -26 pips ❌ WTI SHORT / 185 pips ✅ WTI SHORT / -10 pips ❌ GOLD BUY / 70 pips ✅ GOLD SELL / 170 pips ✅ WTI SHORT / 200 pips ✅ GOLD SELL / -30 pips ❌ GBPUSD SELL / 67 pips ✅ GOLD SELL / 30 pips ✅ WTI SHORT / 60 pips ✅ WTI SHORT / 130 pips ✅ GBPUSD SELL / -30 pips ❌ GBPUSD SELL / -15 pips ❌ WTI SELL / -70 pips ❌ WTI BUY / 100 pips ✅ GBPUSD SELL / 20 pips ✅ GOLD SELL / 110 pips ✅ 18 trades taken 12 wins ✅ 6 losses ❌ 66% win rate
by UnknownUnicorn33264805