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Gbpusdsignals

GBPUSDPrice have been in a bearish momentum for a while now. Although it is too early to say, price looks like it is forming a double bottom at this time and if that holds, we just might see a push up towards the 1.27500 area. But then again, it is too early to decide that as price could continue to push lower. Before I make a trading decision, either bullish or bearish, here is what I would love to see: I will go long IF AND ONLY IF Price breaks above the immediate resistance around the 1.25003 area and retests same zone. I will short the market IF AND ONLY IF Price breaks below the immediate support around the 1.24507 and retests same zone Until either one happens, we keep the fingers crossed and wait for the move. Disclaimer: All trade ideas are given for educational purposes and should not be treated as an investment advice, hence do your due diligence. Past results does not guarantee future results
by Mbjoey
GBPUSD Strongest buy signal since March.It has been almost 2 months since we last looked into the GBPUSD pair (see chart below), taking as sell position after the price was rejected on the Channel Up pattern's top: That Channel Up broke downwards, and the last such pattern to remain valid is the one shown on the current chart. The price is below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and today hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. That is the exact pattern we saw on the March 08 bottom. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term Resistance, which if broken, confirms the long-term bullish leg to a new Higher High. Right now this is a buy signal, targeting at least 1.3300 (below Resistance 2) on the long-term. However, if a 1D candle closes below the Channel's bottom, you can also take a short-term sell position, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.2450. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
6
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upExplore the GBPUSD landscape as it maintains its optimistic stance above $1.2710 market, driven by robust UK inflation data. The Pound Sterling gains strength from this report and the potential for further interest rate adjustments by the Bank of England (BoE). With core CPI data raising inflation concerns within the UK economy, the BoE might opt for more interest rate hikes, adding more fuel to the fire of the Pound Sterling's rise. The stage is set for the GBPUSD pair to reap the benefits of this pivotal scenario. Across the Atlantic, declining US unemployment claims for the week ending August 12 underscore the tightness of the labor market, potentially paving the way for another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate rise. Fresh FOMC Minutes emphasized the challenge of high inflation and the need for possible monetary policy tightening. In the upcoming week, eyes will turn to key macroeconomic events from both economies, including the Jackson Hole Symposium and PMI data releases from the UK and US. These data points will shape market sentiment and drive opportunities for the GBPUSD pair. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound find solid support at the $1.27000/$1.26700 zone, or are we heading towards a potential breakdown and a possible sell-off? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats! The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the UK and US dockets for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities. In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure. Keep a close eye on that critical confluence at $1.27000, where an ascending trendline intersects in the Daily timeframe. It's a decisive moment where both sellers and buyers are vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days. Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading! Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
by darcsherry
1
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAmidst Uncertainties, Cable Market Grapples Despite U.K. Economy's 0.2% Growth In a twist against expectations for a flat reading, the U.K. economy witnessed a 0.2% growth in the second quarter, bolstered by a 0.5% monthly increase in June. However, lingering inflation concerns loom, potentially restraining future growth with the looming possibility of further interest rate hikes. Shifting gears, the U.S. Dollar held steady on Friday, its value scarcely wavering as traders absorbed the latest inflation data. The U.S. consumer price index matched predictions, showing growth in July compared to the previous month. This outcome prompted speculation that the Fed might maintain current interest rates in September, while also prompting a reduction in expectations for a rate cut this year, maintaining rates near 22-year highs. At this pivotal juncture, the market's focus tightens on impending economic indicators from both economies in the upcoming week. All eyes are on the 1.27000 level; any failure to defend it could usher in a deeper downtrend movement. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound find solid support at $1.27000, or are we heading towards a potential breakdown and a possible sell-off? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats! The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the UK and US dockets, including the Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, and FOMC Minutes. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities. In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure. Keep a close eye on that critical confluence at $1.27000, where an ascending trendline intersects in the Daily timeframe. It's a decisive moment where both sellers and buyers are vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days. Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading! Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
by darcsherry
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upTrading activities witnessed the impact of Britain's cooling inflation on the pound's performance against the dollar. This is the pound's biggest one-day fall since March, coinciding with a plunge in British government bond yields as inflation slows to 7.9% in June. As the prospect of a sustained rise in the Bank of England base rate diminishes, traders are now considering profit-taking activities. Though with rates peaking between 5.75-6.0%, the pound still offers higher yield returns compared to the United States. Meanwhile, the dollar received a boost from positive U.S. labor market data, fueling expectations of another 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, uncertainty remains about the central bank's next move, as we closely monitor economic reports and consumer sentiment readings. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound find support at the current confluence at $1.28400, or is a breakdown imminent, inciting a potential sell-off? Be prepared as inflation eases off, as it may trigger sharp price movements in the pound. In this video, We analyze the 4-hour timeframe, exploring both bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover promising trading opportunities for the week ahead. Key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points will be meticulously examined to reveal essential insights into the current market structure. Don't miss the key level at $1.38400, sharing a critical confluence with the ascending trendline in the 4H timeframe. As we stand at a juncture where both sellers and buyers hold sway, the market's reaction to this zone will determine the direction of price action in the upcoming days. Stay connected and engage in the comment section to remain updated on the latest developments. Thank you for watching, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Prepare for a thrilling journey ahead! Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upCurrently, the GBPUSD appears to be in a bullish consolidation phase, trading just below a 15-month peak. Thursday and Friday's trading sessions witnessed the pair oscillating within a narrow range, highlighting the prevailing indecision in the market. As trading activities remain at their highest levels since April 2022, we question whether the bulls are losing momentum or if we are on the cusp of significant profit-taking activities as the new week approaches. The US Dollar continues to face selling pressure after reaching a fresh 15-month low, as market expectations solidify that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. Conversely, the Pound Sterling draws support from growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates further to curb demand and lower inflation. Looking ahead to the next trading session, market participants eagerly await impactful economic data from both the UK and US dockets to gain crucial insights and direction. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Specific attention was placed on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes. We explore both bullish and bearish sentiments, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. We closely examine key levels, trendlines, and support and resistance levels to reveal essential insights into the current market structure. Of particular interest is the key level at $1.31000, which underwent multiple tests in the past two days, indicating the presence of buyers at this critical juncture. However, the persistent rejection of the peak price at $1.31400 suggests a potential reversal that could break the key level, triggering a sell-off. The market's reaction to this zone at the start of the upcoming week will play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of price action in the following days. Stay connected to the channel and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about the latest updates and developments. Thank you for watching, and I am excited to provide you with further insights into my upcoming content on the GBPUSD. Prepare for an enlightening journey ahead! Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
4
GBPUSD Hit the Channel Up top. High probability for a pull-back.The GBPUSD pair hit on Friday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 08 Low. At the same time it got rejected on the 1.3150 Resistance, which was the April 14 2022 High, while the 1D RSI got extremely overbought at 78.50. This calls for a short-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's bottom. We are willing to buy there with a low risk/ high reward long, targeting Resistance 2 at 1.33000. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will take the loss and short instead towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with an early estimated target at 1.2400, although this will be modified depending on the position of the 1D MA200 at the time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
2
Crunch Time: Will Sellers Break the Barrier? GBPUSD in Focus Traders are heavily bullish on the British pound, with net long positions exceeding a whopping $4.7 billion as of July 11, the highest level since mid-2014. Traders are ramping up their expectations for the Bank of England to implement additional interest rate hikes while increasingly under the impression that U.S. rates are on the verge of reaching their peak. Notably, the US Federal Reserve has entered a "blackout period" ahead of their July 26 meeting. As a result, this sentiment could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the UK's inflation figures are a major risk event to watch for this week. Although there is an expectation for a drop in the inflation rate (from 8.7% to 8.2%), it is anticipated to remain four times higher than the Bank of England's official target. UK inflation data is due at 2 am (NY time) on Wednesday. On the chart, the GBPUSD continues to explore lower levels following a test of a high target near 1.31465 on the daily chart last Friday. The market saw a modest corrective downward move last Friday, and again the first trading day of this week. This allowed the 20-day moving average to catch up with the price action. The big question now is whether sellers can push prices below the psychologically important level of 1.3000 ahead of the release of UK inflation data. The presence of buying pressure adds uncertainty to the situation.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upIn the previous week, the growth of the Pound Sterling unfolded before our eyes, defying the weight of higher interest rates imposed by the Bank of England (BoE) on households in the United Kingdom. Despite this burden, prices surged and fearlessly tested the psychological resistance level of 1.28500 for the third consecutive week. Furthermore, the Pound capitalized on the U.S. non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations. On Friday, the Labor Department revealed that June saw a lower-than-expected addition of 209,000 new hires, with May's figures revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. However, amidst this backdrop, the unemployment rate experienced a decline from 3.7% to 3.6% in June, while average hourly earnings mirrored the previous month's growth, increasing by 0.4%. Market sentiments are strongly suggesting that the Bank of England is poised to further raise interest rates, driven by the fact that U.K. inflation remains the highest among developed nations. This sentiment could potentially fuel an ongoing uptrend as investors eagerly seek higher yield returns from the Pound. Let's now delve into the GBPUSD Technical Analysis, specifically focusing on price action within the 4-hour timeframes. Our comprehensive analysis explores both the bullish and bearish sentiments, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. We meticulously examine key levels, trendlines, and support and resistance levels to unveil crucial insights into the current market structure. We are going to keep a close eye on the key level for the new week, situated at $1.28500, which underwent multiple tests in the last 3 weeks hereby revealing the presence of sellers at this critical juncture. The market's reaction to this zone at the beginning of the upcoming week will play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of price action in the days that follow. Stay connected to the channel and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about the latest updates and developments. Thank you for watching, and I am thrilled to provide you with further insights into my upcoming content on the GBPUSD. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upThis video provides a comprehensive analysis of the bullish and bearish sentiment in GBPUSD, focusing on price action-based technical analysis of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. In the previous week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the necessity for further rate hikes, and adding to the market volatility, the Bank of England surprises with a larger-than-expected rate hike, causing a stir in investor sentiment. This bullish attempt is evident on the charts around the $1.27000 zone, reflecting a momentary boost following the Bank of England's 50 basis point increases to a nearly one-year high. Traditionally, higher interest rates lend support to currencies, but the Pound Sterling faces the risk of a potential recession in the U.K., prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar. U.K. retail sales data, released recently, reveals a 2.1% annual decline in May, further indicating an economic slowdown. On the U.S. economic front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concludes his two-day testimony before Congress, reiterating the potential for at least two more interest rate hikes this year to combat rising inflation. Looking ahead, the trajectory of the Pound Sterling will be influenced by upcoming announcements of Gross Domestic Product data from both economies this week. In light of these latest economic developments, questions arise: If the larger-than-expected rate hike from the Bank of England fails to generate positive price movement for the Pound, how will the United Kingdom navigate its persistent inflationary pressures? This video illustrates a comprehensive analysis of the bullish and bearish sentiment in GBPUSD, focusing on a technical examination of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. We uncover how these critical levels can unlock potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. Notably, I highlighted a key level at the $1.27000 zone, coinciding with the ascending trendline identified in the 4H timeframe. The market's response to this zone at the beginning of the week will wield considerable influence over the direction of price action in the days to come. Stay connected to the channel and remain engaged in the comment section to stay informed about the latest updates and developments. Thank you for watching, and I eagerly anticipate providing you with further insights into my future content. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upThe GBPUSD surged to a new annual high of 1.2850 as Bank of England (BoE) policymakers prepare for a potential interest rate hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold off on an interest rate increase, indicating that the tightening phase is still ongoing. The Pound Sterling remains optimistic as discussions about a pause in the BoE's rate-hike policy continue. Despite the Fed's neutral interest rate decision, the Pound Sterling continued to strengthen amid concerns about a potential recession in the United States. This positive market sentiment is partly due to the relatively weak performance of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is confident that inflation will ease, but it is expected to remain high due to labor shortages and elevated food inflation. Additionally, the Pound Sterling's trajectory will be influenced by the upcoming announcements of the consumer price index and the interest rate decision. Based on the latest economic developments, there is a general consensus that the Bank of England will further raise interest rates to combat stubborn inflation in the United Kingdom. In our video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the GBPUSD's bullish and bearish sentiment, focusing on price action-based technical analysis of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. We discussed how these levels can help identify potential trading opportunities in the coming week, providing insights and analysis on the GBPUSD chart. It is worth noting that we highlighted a range between 1.28500 and 1.27700, and the market participants' reaction to this zone at the beginning of the week may significantly impact the direction of price action in the upcoming week. Stay connected to this channel and stay tuned for updates in the comment section to stay informed. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
GbpUsd- 1.24 is very important at this momentIn my previous GbpUsd analysis, I've written that a break above 1.24 could lead to further gains to 1.2550 and even to 1.3 if 1.2550 will also fall. However, Friday's NFP capped gains exactly to 1.2550, and a strong reversal followed almost negating the previous day's candle. 1.24 remains support for GbpUsd, but the pressure switched to the sell side. A break under this level could lead to further losses and puts the important 1.2 psychological level in focus.
by Mihai_Iacob
24
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-up Welcome to my GBPUSD Technical Analysis Session. Despite British retail sales data rising by more than expected in April, 0.5% from March and an improvement from the drop of 1.2% the prior month; the U.S. dollar against the Pound Sterling appears to be on course for its fourth consecutive weekly gain as U.S. rate hike expectations grow across the market and traders continue to accumulate positions for the potential that U.S. interest rates remain higher for longer. It is also worth noting that the high-impact economic features from the U.S. docket this week and the unresolved debt ceiling negotiation could incite risk-aversed trading activities at the beginning of the week resulting in a choppy market environment before the "big move" happens. GBPUSD Price Forecast: So, in this video, from a technical standpoint - we reviewed the GBPUSD Support and Resistance Levels on the 4H timeframe and how to use them to identify potential trading opportunities ahead of the new week (GBPUSD Chart Analysis). Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
3
GBPUSD Below the 1D MA50, expecting more selling.The GBPUSD pair hit our upside target (1.2650) and May 27 2022 High on our last buy signal (see chart below) almost 2 months ago: The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having closed a candle below it yesterday for the first time since March 16. This is a bearish continuation signal that is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet again. Our target is at 1.2100. The 1D RSI can provide additional insight on a potential new buy entry at the bottom. If however the price closes above the 1D MA50 instead on two straight 1D candles at least, then hedge the position with a buy targeting the June 01 2021 Lower Highs again. If the pair closes a 1D candle above that level, it will be the first time to do so in years, and will be a major buy signal. In that case we will buy and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 1.2850. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
10
GBP/USD Alert: Unrealistic Forecast for UK Inflation? Tomorrow, the latest inflation rate for the UK will be released, which will be significant for traders dealing with GBP/USD due to the perhaps unrealistic forecast for a 2-percentage point drop. It is expected that the inflation rate for April will have significantly dropped to 8.2%. Are markets overly optimist with this forecast? In March, the consumer price inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 10.1% on a year-on-year basis, slightly lower than the 10.4% recorded in February but higher than the market's expectation of 9.8%. The British pound has remained strong, with a value around $1.2435, staying close to its 12-month high of $1.2679 reached on May 10th. Currently, money markets predict an 80% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in June, and a 79% chance of a 5% Bank Rate by September. Recently, the BoE increased rates to 4.5%, the highest level since 2008. On the other hand, some expect the US Federal Reserve to pause its current tightening cycle as policymakers carefully consider concerns about inflation's impact on economic growth. There have been positive developments regarding discussions about the US debt ceiling, according to US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who mentioned the possibility of a deal being reached tonight or tomorrow. When examining the 4-hour chart, the pair tested an important 50-bar moving average (MA) and attracted buyers on Friday. This MA will continue to be a significant level leading up to the inflation rate data drop. If the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward bias, it will need to contend with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which recently dipped below the 50-midline. Should the 50-day MA be breached, the expected trading range for today could be between support at 1.2350 and resistance at 1.2400.
by BlackBull_Markets