GBPUSD Analysis: Slightly Bullish Bias on 08/10/2024.In today's analysis of the GBPUSD pair, we anticipate a slightly bullish bias driven by a combination of fundamental and technical factors. As we move through the trading session on 08/10/2024, traders are closely monitoring key economic releases and geopolitical developments that are expected to influence market sentiment. Let’s explore the primary drivers behind this expected bullish movement.
Key Fundamental Drivers
1. Hawkish Sentiment from the Bank of England (BoE)
The recent comments from the Bank of England (BoE) officials have been hawkish, signaling that further rate hikes could be on the horizon to combat inflation. With UK inflation remaining above target levels, the BoE's focus on tightening monetary policy to bring it down is a key factor supporting the British Pound (GBP). The market is pricing in the possibility of at least one more rate hike in the near future, which adds upward pressure on GBPUSD.
2. US Dollar Weakness Amid Softening Data
The US Dollar (USD) has been showing signs of weakness as recent economic data from the US indicates a slowdown in key sectors, particularly the labor market and consumer spending. The Non-Farm Payrolls report released last week missed expectations, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes sooner than anticipated. This dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed provides a tailwind for GBPUSD, as a weaker USD makes the pair more attractive for buyers.
3. Political Stability in the UK
Political stability in the UK, especially in comparison to the uncertainties in the US, has helped maintain investor confidence in the British Pound. The UK government’s recent fiscal policy announcements have been well-received by markets, with investors expecting that these measures will support economic growth, adding strength to GBP in the short term.
4. UK Economic Data
Today’s release of the UK’s GDP data will be crucial in setting the tone for GBPUSD. Positive GDP growth figures are expected to fuel further optimism around the British economy, reinforcing the bullish momentum for the Pound. Additionally, the services sector PMI data coming in stronger than forecasted last week suggests that the UK economy is performing better than many of its European counterparts.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, GBPUSD is trading above its 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The pair is also hovering near a key support level of 1.2150, and as long as this level holds, we could see further upside potential. RSI indicators also suggest that the pair is not yet overbought, leaving room for additional gains throughout the trading day.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support Level: 1.2150
- Resistance Level: 1.2275
A break above the 1.2275 resistance level could signal further upward momentum, pushing GBPUSD towards 1.2300 in the near term.
Conclusion: Slightly Bullish Bias for GBPUSD
In conclusion, based on today’s fundamental factors and market conditions, we anticipate a slightly bullish bias for GBPUSD. With hawkish sentiment from the BoE, weakening USD, and positive economic data from the UK, traders can expect the pair to inch higher as the day progresses. Keeping an eye on key levels and economic releases will be crucial for capturing potential trading opportunities.
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GBPUSD: Cycle peaked. Expect brutal bearish reversal.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.143, MACD = 0.08, ADX = 33.338) but still bullish on 1W (RSI = 64.701). After rising nonstop since April and basically not having a long term correction since October 2023, we expect this bullish cycle of GBPUSD to be coming to an end. The Sine Waves structure is further proof of that, as it is past its top where in June 2021 and April 2018 it peaked. We turn long term bearish on this pair, aiming for the S1 level (TP = 1.2100).
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Weekly Round-up: USD/JPY & GBP/USD Market AnalysisHi Traders,
Here's a summary of the week so far for USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
This week has been packed with economic data releases. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but expressed optimism about improvements in the broader Japanese economy.
The overall trend for USD/JPY remains bearish, and we anticipate this to persist into the coming week. As for GBP/USD, our short trade closed yesterday, and we are now expecting a continuation of the upward trend, breaking above the momentum high.
Have a wonderful weekend!
GBPUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GBPUSD: Sell this 2nd 1D MA50 test.GBPUSD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.00, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 28.566) and testing the 1D MA50 for the 2nd time since May 3rd. Last time it got rejected emphatically and being exactly on the LH trendline, there is very low risk in selling on the current market price. The target is a little over the S2 level (TP = 1.2220).
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GBPUSD: Exploring Potential Buy Opportunities (LDN Session)Currently, my focus is on observing the H1 Bullish Order Block, which notably incorporates an embedded m15 Bullish Order Block. This configuration appears robust, particularly due to the presence of inefficiencies such as the Liquidity Void and Fair Value Gap.
Upon market movement, my anticipation is for price to gravitate towards the liquidity provided by the m15 buy stops. Ultimately, my strategic objective is aimed at reaching the m15 Bearish Inducement Order Block, which, notably, entails a liquidity void awaiting fulfillment.
Wishing you a week filled with profitable opportunities,
The_Architect
GBPUSD: On the bearish threshold. Be ready to short it.GBPUSD is being rejected repeatedly at the top of the multimonth Channel Down but the 1D MA50 is still supporting it. However the squeeze has gotten to narrow and being on a neutral 1D technical setting (RSI = 50.057, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 25.323), we expect a bearish breakout soon below it. The similarities of the 1D RSI with last August, show that there is significant downside potential. We will short if we do get a 1D candle close under the 1D MA50 and target the S2 level (TP = 1.2230).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GBPUSD: Consolidation and Complete Indecision 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Even though GBPUSD is trading in a bullish trend since October,
the pair is in a deep consolidation, the last 3 weeks.
The pair is currently stuck within a horizontal range on a daily.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 1.283,
we can anticipate a movement higher to 1.294 resistance.
Bearish Scenario
If the price violates 1.26 support and closes below that on a daily,
a bearish continuation may follow to 1.255 level.
Because the long-term trend is bullish, I remain bullish biased.
Chances will be high that the resistance of the range will be reached.
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GBPUSD: Sell opportunity under this Channel Up.GBPUSD has been caught up between two long term patterns, a Channel Up since December 2022 and then a Channel Down that emerged after the July 14th 2023 High. Right now it is on the rising wave (dashed Channel Up) of the Channel Down and on the November 29th High got overbought on its RSI (now balanced with RSI = 58.041, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 28.423).
Our intention is to get on a validated short if the price crosses under the Channel Up and target the S1 level (TP = 1.2200). This setup will be invalidated if the price crosses over the R1 level.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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GBPUSD: Buy opportunity on extremely oversold levels.GBPUSD hit the bottom of the prolonged Channel Down pattern, reaching extreme oversold technical levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 21.119, MACD = -0.012, ADX = 59.945). The 4H MACD is approaching the formation of a Bullish Cross, and prior price action shows that when formed this low, it always rebounds and hits at least the 1D MA50.
We are on an early long trade, targeting the course of the 4H MA50 (TP = 1.2275), even though a Channel Down top extension can even reach as high as 1.2425.
Prior idea:
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GBPUSD: Channel Up broken downwards. Bearish mode right now. GBPUSD crossed under its four month Channel Up pattern, as well as closing under the 1D MA50, thus turning the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 43.717, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 34.501). Currently this is a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA100 (TP = 1.2625). Every Support (S) broken, will be a sell signal for the next one. We are buying only if the price crosses over the 0.618 Fibonacci level or the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross. In both events, our target will be the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.3335).
Prior idea:
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GBPUSD: Megaphone pulling back. Chance to buy the dip.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone pattern after the March 8th bottom with the 1D timeframe still bullish (RSI = 61.970, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 32.900) despite the fact that the price has been on a pullback since the June 16th high.
This is because the technicals were previously overbought and the harmonization process is longer. Technically when the RSI turns neutral it will start being a buy opportunity again. The closer to the 1D MA50, which is now at the bottom of the Megaphone pattern, the better.
We will buy and target the top of the Megaphone again (TP = 1.3000) before it eventually tests the R1 (1.3090) after the next pullback.
Prior idea:
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The pound has hit a recent high !The pound has hit a recent high, opening up space for upward mobility!
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of the pound against the US dollar for the past year and a half. The image is overlaid with a bottom to top golden section. As shown in the figure, the pound has reached a recent high against the US dollar, demonstrating the strongest performance among mainstream non US currencies! Yesterday, the highest point of the pound against the US dollar has already broken through the 2.000 level (1.2680) of the bottom against the golden divide! Once the daily closing is above it for three consecutive trading days, the upper space will open. In the future, the upper space will open to 1.3100!
GBPUSD Crystal clear Channel Up.GBPUSD is pulling back to the MA50 (4h) inside a Channel Up pattern.
Every Channel Up Higher Low has been on the MA50 (4h).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price hits the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 1.2670 (Resistance 1 and May 26th 2022 Top).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is inside a Channel Down and every touch on its bottom was a buy entry for the pair. Use it as additional confirmation to enter.
2. Every rebound from the Channel Up bottom has been around +2.75%. As a result we can see the price rise a little higher than our suggested target, but we believe the long term Resistance affects the trend more.
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GBPUSD AND TRADING RISK I HOW ITS DONEFor More Helpful Trading Videos and Analysis, Go ahead and click on the follow button. If you have any questions too, please do Ask!
Sometimes, Markets will rapidly change their mood. Its up to you to be prepared for it before it happens.
In this video we are going to analyse the GBPUSD based on core risk management strategies and Trading Mindset. This is about identifying key areas and managing risk around them when you take the Trade..
This will enable you to manage your current Trades and also future Trades when there is a similar Trading climate.
GBPUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GBPUSD forming Double TOP?G'day Guys
Here, Based on my previous posting. I still confident GU forming Double Top before heading south. Base on weekly, GU is reaching on Major Supply Zone.
High possibilities GU is forming on double top which sync with human behavior and current economic conditions.
Today idea is looking for Long opportunities around 300 pips before looking for Short.
Let's see what happen next and Let's Dance with the markets.