FUNDAMENTALS / MACRO / MIDTERM / SHORT TERMMust Watch!
What is the evilest day? Halloween!
When was the Protestant Reformation and who was it against? OCT 31st the Cabal that controlled the Catholic Church "an still does"
When was the Finacial Revolution? OCT 31st
SATOSHI NAKAMOTO! Central Intelligence! That is the translation! Q has everything to do with this! They HODL the GOLD!
LAW OF 3 - LAW OF 7 = 21!!!
This is the Great Awakening!
GBTC
$GBTC | Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust What Is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust?
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is a digital currency investment product that individual investors can buy and sell in their own brokerage accounts. On January 21, 2020, it became an SEC reporting company, registering its shares with the Commission and designating the Trust as the first digital currency investment vehicle to attain the status of a reporting company by the SEC. This will allow accredited investors who purchased shares in the Trust’s private placement to have an earlier liquidity opportunity, as the statutory holding period of private placement shares would be reduced from 12 months to 6 months, according to SEC rules.
More About the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
The Grayscale Investment Trust debuted as The Bitcoin Investment Trust on Sept. 25, 2013 as a private placement to accredited investors and, later on, received FINRA approval for eligible shares to trade publicly. This means that investors have access to buy and sell public shares of the Trust under the symbol GBTC. Grayscale Investments calls it a traditional investment vehicle with shares titled in the investor's name. Although the Trust is not an ETF itself, Grayscale says it's modeled on popular commodity investment products like the SPDR Gold Trust, a physically backed ETF.
GBTC is traded publicly on the OTCQX, an over-the-counter market, under the Alternative Reporting Standard for companies not required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Its success mirrors that of Bitcoin because its value is derived solely from that cryptocurrency.
As of September 11, 2019, GBTC had approximately $2.16 billion in assets under management (AUM) and 2.4 million shares outstanding. The trust requires a minimum investment of $50,000 and charges an annual fee of 2.0 percent, which accrues daily, for accredited investors who wish to subscribe to the Trust as a private placement. On the other hand, investors are eligible to purchase as little as one share of the GBTC public quotation.
Grayscale suggests that its management of the fund is worth more than the annual fee, and one of its major selling points is its security. Storing cryptocurrency safely is notoriously challenging, and the company assures investors that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's assets "are safeguarded by a robust security system that uses industry-leading security standards."
As an investment vehicle which trades over-the-counter, GBTC is available for investors to buy and sell in the same way as virtually any U.S. security. As an example, GBTC can be traded through a brokerage firm, and it's also available within tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s.
Disadvantages of GBTC
Andrew Left of Citron Research has publicly criticized the Grayscale Investment Trust, and Citron has tweeted that GBTC is the "most dangerous way to own Bitcoin." Possible disadvantages of investing in the Trust include paying high premiums along with the annual fee, along with the risk factors associated with the overall volatility in the cryptocurrency market, as well as with investments vehicles that aren't required to register with the SEC.
Because the Trust is currently the only fund of its kind specifically for bitcoin, investors have been paying a high premium. In Sept. 2018, shares of GBTC traded at a high of $7.95, which was around 20% higher than the value of the bitcoin within the trust that each share represented at that time. Although that premium is significant, it’s lower than it has been in the past — GBTC has closed at prices more than two times the value of its underlying bitcoins. Grayscale offers that prices are dictated by the market and not by Grayscale itself, so price fluctuations may be a result of supply and demand.
As of Oct. 2018, each share of GBTC represented less than 0.0001 bitcoin. That means it would take more than 1,000 shares of GBTC to own one bitcoin. GBTC saw a steady increase in 2017 and peaked at the end of the year. However, its performance in 2018 has fluctuated, and overall, GBTC has trended downward, with a nearly 65% year-to-date decline as of Oct. 2018. Steeper declines could mean that shares could lose most or all of their value. In 2019, as Bitcoin's price has generally trended upward, GBTC has followed.
Litecoin Hinted at Bitcoin's Move Up, More to Come?Apologies for not posting yesterday. I was trapped with work and mentally drained from all the news coverage of our Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Honestly, it was a disappointment in terms of price action. For stock market bears, today there has been a lack of follow through to the down side. Yes, that should keep you up at night if you are short this market. The gold breakout was...meh. Oh and Bitcoin did what it does best and filled its ridiculous gap early this morning. Let's get into some charts. Today I'll focus on Litecoin, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, SPDR Gold Shares, and the United States Oil Fund.
Litecoin Warned Us and it Delivered
A few days ago I posted on how Litecoin was retesting support at 40 and may hint of a Bitcoin rally. I explained that it is informative to use other altcoin charts to gauge the future direction of Bitcoin. We reviewed Litecoin and it delivered. Bitcoin ripped from early week lows and has now filled the infamous 1200 point CME gap. Just ridiculous . However, the Litecoin price is lagging Bitcoin significantly (red flag). Below is the daily chart of Litecoin.
As you can see, Litecoin is rallying off the lows but the lack of follow through should be concerning. In the coming week or two there is also the risk of a Head and Shoulders reversal top forming. Could this reversal pattern provide us with another hint for Bitcoin?
Below is the daily chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notice the lack of follow through for the bulls on the daily candle close. I view this as a sign of exhaustion which could lead to consolidation or a reversal. GBTC will be an important chart to watch in the coming weeks.
For crypto in general, there are signs that are pointing to continued consolidation, with potential of further dips to as low as 6,000. In the meantime continue to BTFD and sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish .
Follow through ASAP
Maybe I am impatient, but gold needs to follow through asap! Below is the daily view of GLD.
What we see here is potentially the next steps to a all-time high test . Momentum is beginning to build as GLD is breaking out from a month long symmetrical triangle. Don't short here, the trend has been bullish and the with the current state of the global economy there may not be a safer place to stack your cash.
With that said, there are levels of support I would like GLD to hold. See below the 4-hour chart of GLD.
A break below 161 support and there is cause for concern. In the interim my bias remains.... Bias: Bullish .
Onto Black Gold
I haven't talked about any oil stocks on this channel yet so why not begin with USO. Below is the 4-hour chart of USO.
For the last 10 days USO has been in a sideways consolidation known as a rectangle . These types of formations often take form at the beginning of major trends. Last point on rectangle consolidations, is that they rarely have false breakouts outside of the rectangle. Whichever direction USO breaks will likely define the trend. Keep an eye on this chart as it could be a big winner heading into the summer. Short term, Bias: Bullish .
Tomorrow is the weekly close. In the morning I'll be reviewing Zoom and possibly Tesla. I hope you have a great evening!
3 PATHS THAT LEAD TO THE SAME PLACE. We are either in a Parabola. (RED)
A rising channel. (WHITE-BLUE)
A retest of the bottom of Bullish Pennant then breakout...
Either Way, BTC ends up the same place. More valuable than it is today.
STRESS-FREE IS THE WAY FOR ME! DCA-HODL is the best tactic!
MARGIN IS FOR FOOLS!
DEBT FREE!
Stock Market Crashed because of DEBT! NOT COVID!
Easy Money, Human Folly, & GREED!