Santa rally cooking...After the latest moves there is a strategically interesting structure setting up for the year end flows. Here I am tracking a pullback towards $52,000 support for an opportunity to load for the next exchange.
In desperation, late buyers succumbed to the fomo which was buying the highs while sharp hands are taking profits (very similar to our latest ETH charts). Now that the highs have been taken, profit taking becomes apparent.
This excellent setup is remarkable not only for the transfer of the momentum, breakout, retrace, breakout, nowadays we consider wave 5 to meet at least the length of wave 1 which will take us at least above $75,000 with extensions (unbelievable) all the way at $217,000.
GBTC
The EscapeThe position arising here is another freeing move.
After sellers surrender the $3,500 pivot, it constitutes for a typical cascading of stops - the squeeze manoeuvre we have been tracking for a while finally is beginning to play out. Let's start with a traditional recap of the swing we have been tracking the past few sessions;
The analysis of the starting position was showing us the ABC sequence had been fulfilled and buyers were ready to conduct a flanking attack. This quick-witted move was administered with precision. In this case, the china noise is the same as someone being threatened by a mugger with a weapon, and the person deciding to grab on, continuing to hold, in an attempt that they cannot be hit.
BTC 4h AnalisysWe see some interesting bards last days, also BTC is doing a doble top on fib. 1
Has the force to break up and give us some easy earnings?
My only concern is the volumen, i dont see enought volume to break it, but in that case, the closer support is $46900
Related analysis:
2- Tasa BTD.D nice insights
3- Grayscake btc holdings (GBTCD) seems to be restoring the confidence
As always please, if you have some feedback i would be super appreciated, im stilll learning.
Thanks community !
the last mileHere we are tracking the ending of a 'C' leg in the 4th wave retrace (invalidation for sellers comes into play with 50,130 because it will mean the move is impulsive rather than corrective). Expecting sellers to step in here with risk storming the base for August, the next leg down would mean the lows are no longer protected via the meme prince. Elon now uncovered and exposed if we breakdown, we may witness the nuts being squeezed.
In case of any doubts recommend reviewing the macro chart as flows are a lot clearer. A breakout on the log chart unlocked the impulsive 3rd leg where we ticked $50-60,000 which constitutes the necessary target. We are now on our way back to the original blockade via increased regulatory pressures.
ETH, BTC and the Grayscale mess. The best buy and short is onGrayscale play is on. And it's about an institutional thing. gBTC is not the same as BTC. Institutionals are playing this bc 6 months ago they had a positive premium so algo had to cause this selloff we see today bc they bought gBTC shares and short btc futures with a +20% arbitrage. Just so you know this is too much. Now we have the opposite: a negative premium, meaning gbtc shares are too cheap rn. And bc institutionals can't buy BTC yet they buy gBTC shares which are not the same.
And the more the time comes the more I get that BTC is digital real state. What I really find interesting is there are assets that go up forever (silver, gold, real state, art, diamonds) and now we have bitcoin. This new kid on the block which is so "risky"and ugly that every institutional trader wants to buy a better price. Let the game begin. It's time to turn your grid on. I'm buying BTC every 3k drop and eth every 250. Let's do this. This is not the end. It's just the beginning. What if in the future there are no banks but defi. What if when Taproot comes all dexes die bc through bitcoin all the defi world can be exposed? I will make sure I'm buying my btc and withdrawing to my hardware wallet. Don't let your bitcoin in your broker bc what if nobody will be able to buy bitcoin in the futures bc it will skyrocket forever?
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
GBTC: $100 IN 2021?GUESS WHAT WILL PRINT AS A MONTHLY CANDLE ON GBTC!!
THAT'S RIGHT, A BEAUTIFUL BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE RIGHT ON THE 61.8% FIB RETRACEMENT........
TARGETS ARE $90, $120 WITH A PEAK @ $150 POSSIBLY THIS YEAR!
Proposed labeling for GBTC.I think GBTC is living the last part of a big corrective four-wave (in the form of an expanded flat, 3-3-5). If GBTC trades below the 20.36 USD, the labeling is invalidated, entering into a bear market if GBTC trades with confidence above the 47 USD, it confirms the fifth and final wave before the "crypto winter."
The Crypto Shuffle... Watching GBTCTraders have been all over the map with predictions related to the recent sell-off in Bitcoin & Crytpo markets.
It reminds me to recognize the significance of the market... and just how new and fragile it still is.
You simply should not be trading in cryptos if you are unable to withstand the risks involved in such a highly speculative & volatile market.
Remember, investing & trading are two very different things.
Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC):
Currently it looks like price currently may be entering a semi-significant support & resistance zone. I say semi-significant because historical data is lacking prior to 2018 levels.
I expect retail traders will react to this point as the 600 EMA (4 Hour) is in view and normally sees a bounce upwards.
The RSI is reading below 30 and reflecting price may be oversold. Historically, a break below 20 seems to be the level to look for.
Since majority of retail traders will most likely enter long at the 600 EMA (4 hour), I am holding a contrarian position and expecting a further sell-off to the 900 EMA (200 on the weekly chart), unless significant confluences prove otherwise.
Looking at a possible entry long around $15 - 20.
Take profit at $50 (Roughly a 233% return). This is a buy & hold play as multiple price levels are reached on the way.
Stop just under $10.
Patience is KEY!
*Not investment advice. Know your own level of aversion to risk.
Bitcoin must reach the blue areato keep the trend from being bearish, bitcoin must maintain the price in the blue area of the channel in order to create a new Higher High.
however, GBTC sentiment remains fearful at the moment so prices tend to remain bearish in the short term.
The RSI indicator hasn't changed its direction yet, so the bullish divergence still looks weak considering the price has dropped and the oscillator is still stable.
Im Sure we all have Heard GBTC is coming I Have marked the Date of GBTC unlock on this chart, Question now is What effect will it have on BTC pricing. If we look back on the Gold ETF's Realeased Previously; The had a bullish effect on the price of gold, Do you think the same Will Happen W/BTC or will BTC fall in the short term because of diversion of Funds. Please Leave a quick Comment W/ your thoughts - Thank you
BlockFi and GrayscaleThese are the SEC filings from BlockFi regarding actions with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
What's your take on how this led to selling pressure for the market?
Remember, selling GBTC on the equity market does not mean selling BTC in the spot market. AND BlockFi needs to have BTC for its customers.
Let's see what the community comes up with!
For some reference: jarvislabs.substack.com
GBTC to $124Buy it up and enjoy the ride soon, you're also going to want Bitcoin miner stocks like Riot, Can, SOS, EBON and MARA, they all look close to bottoming.
Why you should NEVER hold Grayscale products long termThis is a basic example of the decay in GBTC vs Bitcoin and why you should never hold ANY Grayscale crypto products in your portfolio *long term*.
GBTC is the Bitcoin investment trust that Grayscale offers to get exposure to Bitcoin.
Based on Friday's close of 27.68, it's trading as if BTC is around $16,700 per coin - half its value. Keep this in mind if you ever consider adding this to your long term holdings.
If you want to own the real thing, own the real thing. If you're a trader, you're better off opening a futures account and trading the micro futures that represent .10 BTC (MBT).
Grayscale products should be treated as short - medium term.
All the best.
BTC 1D - Short term bullish? Bitcoin is gaining mass adoption. Besides El Salvador, other countries are sure to follow, moving further and further away from the inflationary USD dollar that is causing turbulent economic swings in many emerging markets. It is also important to pay attention to Bitcoin's little brother, Ethereum, which is about to release its London Update. If the London Update is successful in mid-July, I expect Ethereum to pull its big brother along and together they will correct and drastically lift market sentiment again.
And people who talk about a 5k bitcoin or 10k bitcoin, please do me a favour and be honest with yourselves. Even the huge short sums on Bitfinex could not break through the 30k support. The 30k is not just a huge support line but also a demand zone on weekly. And there has never been such a short bull run!!! We're just in the middle of it! Don't fall for the banks, JPmorgan or Warren Buffet. We might dip at mid july below the 30k for a short amount of time (read more below why!)
China redistribution, more decentralisation!!! More and more countries are making the US dollar vulnerable because they do not recognise it as the only currency!
In the short term, Grayscale's big unlocking in July alone would be bearish if accredited investors seek to offset some of their losses (realized after selling their GBTC shares) by selling BTC on the spot markets, but after the bulk of them are over theres like... 0 spot btc sellers left right?
This is just my opinion, it may be wrong. This is not an investment recommendation to buy or sell bitcoin/crypto.
GBTC - Next stop $120's Don't let the permabears mess you up, it's still looking great, load up now where the fear is at the March 2020 lows and November 2018 3k lows. Clap with me! Fear this extreme doesn't happen near tops!!!
All bullish signs for $GBTCI'll open this saying that always wait for confirmation. Now, all I can see in this chart are bullish signs. The ADX is above 40 points stating the end of a trend. The MACD is making the bullish cross while in good divergence with the price action for the last month. Last week OTC:GBTC made a bullish candlestick pattern called "the island reversal", is when two gaps are formed on the same zone creating an "island" on at least one candle; and to add, that candle is a "shooting star", one of the most bullish candle formations.
Regardless of what I see, OTC:GBTC is still on a downtrend. This could only be the start of a reversal, which it would be foolish, at least for me, to buy it. This analysis is to have a close eye on this security that's all.
I'll leave a bearish analysis to give some perspective. Is in spanish.
Bitcoin - like you need another chart!Not that there aren't already 10m Bitcoin charts on TradingView...
This type of corrective draw down after a completed motive move is not in the least bit uncommon.
It is entirely possible we correct down to 34,000-35,000, given the larger motive move that started in 2020.
We haven't even tested the 200dma yet.
At lest Mr Mannering should avoid panicking until we break the 200dma, but not in full panic unless we break 34,000.
Clearly this is not investment advice. However I will point out that this type of volatility is rarely paired effectively with leverage without the risk of meaningful loss.
I LOVE THE GAP ;) I don't know what it is about gaps but I love them. I love to see gaps get filled, nothing gets me more excited. I have drawn lines through gaps within the white box (the rally since the covid crash). BTC is going to crumble and these gaps will all fill. That means we are seeing BTC sub $10K. I think it will bounce off this yellow trend line or wicks below it. Sounds crazy but that the name of the game and the decade.