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GDX, Gold Futures & RoyaltiesWith inflation expectations high and the purchasing power of fiat currency under threat, the traditional store of value is gold. Retail traders have fallen fowl to the manipulation of the yellow metal with the likes of JP Morgan paying $920 million in settlements. New regulations could turn the tide which will allow the price and fundamentals to make sense once again. One way of getting around the inflationary pressures and the price volatility within the precious metals space, is to invest in a royalty company. Red Cloud Securities likes Vox Royalty, as does Crux Investor. From Red Cloud: Vox Royalty Corp. (TSXV:VOX, BUY, C$5.70 target, David A. Talbot) announced it has recognized preliminary record revenue of C$668k (or US$540k) in Q1/21, below our expectations of C$766k. There were no operating costs attached (cash operating margin was 100%) for the quarter as all revenue stemmed from royalties, not streams. Key highlights in the quarter included initial revenue from the Koolyanobbing royalty (uncapped at 2% of FOB sales value royalty) which had iron ore mined at the recently commissioned Altair Pit; increased production from the Hidden Secret deposit, covered by the Dry Creek royalty of Karora Resources (TSX:KRR, BUY, C$9.00 target, David A. Talbot); and rebounding diamond prices in the quarter associated with the Brauna royalty. We believe the company’s revenue should continue to rise going forward, at least through 2023, and expect seven paying royalties by year-end (up from just a single royalty one year ago). FY21 guidance is also forecasted for C$1.7M to C$2.5M, while we forecast about US$2.9M given our higher gold price assumption. With the combination of ongoing royalty acquisitions, and further increases in revenue and earnings as recently acquired royalties come online (read more), we expect the valuation gap between VOX and peers to diminish. VOX currently trades at a P/NAV of 0.7x peers at 1.2x. Underlying Fundamentals Inflation has superseded the global pandemic as the primary risk affecting every corner of the globe. The Federal Reserve insists that the inflationary pressures are transient, not pervasive, though the CPI / PCE data shows that CPI has jumped month-on-month at the fastest rate in several years. Commodity prices have run up to all-time highs as bottlenecks in supply chains create an imbalance to increasing demand on a year-on-year basis, but we have also seen a massive rise in inflationary pressures from the price of energy, particularly through the price of oil. But to the frustration of the retail investor, the price of gold has failed to go parabolic. The largest economies are looking to spend big on infrastructure, and technologies are pushing towards a global target of net-zero carbon emissions over the next few decades. Gold’s usage within safety-critical technologies and components, fuel cell technology and carbon capture industries are pushing the physical demand at an increased pace with the current industrial/technology markets equating to approximately 7% of total demand. In the long term, gold serves as a strong strategic component in many portfolios, not only for its diversification benefits but also for its returns. As a store of wealth, protection against diminishing US dollar purchasing power and as a very liquid Tier 1 asset, pension funds and institutional money managers tend to allocate 5%-10% of the portfolio to the precious metal. Consumer demand driven by the Indian and Chinese markets is a large proponent of gold jewellery, and the Jewellery markets equate to 34% of the total gold demand. As the overall economic outlook and Risk-On markets do well, these consumers purchase more gold. When times are uncertain, as we witnessed in 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the consumers reduce their purchases of jewellery, but the institutions step into the market to de-risk their portfolio, as Gold is a safe haven portfolio hedge, which decreases the price volatility during the uncertain times. The New Regulatory Framework Gold is a High-Quality Liquid Assets and as of 2019, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) reclassified physical gold as a Tier 1 asset. Gold was previously viewed as a risky asset, classified as a Tier 3 asset, which meant that gold could only be carried on banks’ balance sheet at 50% of the market value for reserve purposes. Since the Great Financial Crash, a lot has been done within the banking system to try and protect the broader economy from banks blowing up, as Lehman Brothers did. As part of the regulatory framework, banks have been working under Basel 111 rules and the time is coming for some of the rules to be enforced on the gold markets. These new regulations are scheduled to be introduced for European banks at the end of June 2021 and in the UK from 1 January 2022, affecting all London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member banks. The risks to the bullion banks are that they trade in an OTC derivatives market, not holding much, if any, allocated gold. Allocated gold is when an investor is allocated gold and is the outright owner of a certain amount of physical bullion. There will be a requirement for banks holdings to meet a ratio limit between tangible assets and unallocated assets. The ratio is named Required Stable Funding and the crux of the matter is that if the bullion banks can no longer trade their paper and unallocated gold without holding physical allocated assets, the derivatives market could collapse. The 3 parts of the Basel 111 regulations that affect the paper gold markets are: • The Available Stable Funding factor (ASF) is applied to the sources of a bank’s funding on the liability side of its balance sheet. Depending on the liability (shareholders’ equity, customer deposits, interbank loans etc.) they are multiplied by a factor, from 100% for the most stable forms of funding, such as Tier 1 bank equity, to 0% for the least stable. Being on their balance sheets, unallocated gold owed to a bank’s deposit customers is to be given a Basel III ASF of 0%, which means it will not be permitted to be a source of funding for any balance sheet assets, which must therefore be funded from other liabilities. • The Required stable funding (RSF) is to be applied to a bank’s assets. Unallocated gold positions are to be valued at 85% of their market value. Note that allocated gold, being held in custody, is not on bank balance sheets (except where the bank actually owns physical gold in its own right) and is therefore not involved in the calculation. • The Net stable funding requirement (NSFR) is the ASF divided by the RSF and must be at least 100% at all times. The bullish scenario is that LBMA member banks have to find a lot of physical gold, increasing the demand and pushing up the price. The second bullish scenario for gold stackers is that with the removal of the paper gold positions that suppressed the gold price from inflating against the M2 money supply / global fiat currency expansion, the physical gold price could adjust towards higher prices in line with inflation. Technicals From the chart, we can deduce that the futures market is currently breaking higher and the miners are too. It is conceivable that as physical gold reaches $2k t/oz prices and beyond what is likely to happen in the derivatives markets, a lot of investors will pile in, making the current price of Vox Royalty look very cheap for such a fast-growth company.
AMEX:GLD
by TH_Analysis
lower time frame 3angel pattern on gold = buystop on high,sellstop in low (sl on 5-6 pip above high) AC on daily chart=turn green AC on 1hour chart =going to green this mean 90% gold will start new + trend in next hours if you see my today analyse on dollar index DXY ,it break down trendline too and going to 87 for this ,i predict gold go more up up up ( i say 1000.000.000 time=gold is super trendy,never open reverse order on it,now you can see i was right???? ,gold not reverse on sma200 daily and big trendline,break all , when gold start go up , wil go up up up uper even 20-30 day and 500$ (50.000pip) ) if you have buy you are pro gold trader , be patient on + pos = big profits if you have old open sell , you must put TP= 1845( try to exit in low and pick buy) then reduce your levrage to 10 max 20 if you love zigzag market , high movment and volatile ,reverse posation trade dax future FDAX1! (my base,main instrument from 2006) but need min 6 month practice on demo ,it is other world
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ramin_trader2006
many trader stand on green arrow to buy gold still is on + trend ( until 1800 break ,gold have buy ,looking for buy, like stupid new trader 1-2 red candel dont force you sell=margin call ) ALERT=we predicted : gold in way to 2400 $ www.marketwatch.com keep monitor AC accelator occilator on daily chart (now is red ) and AC on 1hour when AC daily turn green and AC 1hour go down,full red dont fear to buy and wait min 4-5 day if your trade platform dont have AC use stoch 7.4.4 on daily and 1hour chart
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ramin_trader2006
6
Gold Price Action AnalysisAsked on my social media this morning: "what you think? Gold c&h (cup and handle)" I am not an expert when it comes to price patterns like Cup and Handle but I do put my faith in Ichimoku and its fundamental component of 50% retracement levels. What Gold has done in recent months is hold support at 1678 (on futures) back in March which was the 50% Retracement from the launch point of the trend that began 2 years ago in April 2019. The trend on the Weekly is strong bullish so the probability is high that Gold will retest the All Time High and break it in the months to come.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by norok
3
Gold - GC Gold Futures are rising as non-commercials add to their long positions. - Currently net long 192.3k, up 21.5k. In the week to Wednesday, for the first time in 16 weeks, GLD (SPDR Gold ETF) saw positive flows, gaining $340 million (courtesy of ETF.com). In the meantime, non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to an 11-week high. Last week, the metal jumped 3.6 percent after repeatedly defending $1,760s-$1,770s. The nearest support lies at $1,800, and of course $1,760s-$1,770s after that.
COMEX:GC1!
by TH_Analysis
4
do you see how gold is super trendy?all person who open reverse posation,sell on it ,now are in margin call !!!cant exit too here is today analyse and best order place with SL=6.00$ and trailstop=6.00$ AC (or stoch 7.4.4) daily going to red=down trend can comes AC 1hour now show sell too sell on gold ,silver,index like dax dow nasdaq is super risky , if you want sell 100% put SL and never remove it ,these instrument can go up 5000 pip witout pullback(you can't close sell) for comming days we advice looking for buy on dax,nasdaq and gold,silver in deep
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ramin_trader2006
2
END OF TRIANGLE CLOSE TO CRYPTO SURGE TIME - GC1! - GOLD - DAILYThe lines traced in the previous analysis of the GC1! Gold Future are still legit. The blue line is the main line telling about the probable story of this market. Beware, we have seen the market going up suddenly after having touched it last time. The above red line is the potential roof that could be break anytime and would open a large space for a possible bullish movement. The orange line acts like a heart beating, accelerating as the market price approaches the end of this triangle. The interesting thing to note is that more and more investors are getting information about the cryptocurrency world. Bitcoin's market cap vs Gold market cap... The exit of the world lockdowns and hard situations sustain the sentiments of fear over what is the future about in the traditional economy. Gold GC1! price would be likely to react to that and cryptocurrencies are getting popular. There are no coincidences, the end of the triangle is possibly matching with the surge of some cryptos seeing projects delivering their layer 2 solutions (like ETH) or creating smart contract in their new step of development (like ADA). We see more and more forecasts about the increase of stock investors diversifying their portfolio with some cryptocurrencies in the near future. At the moment, GC1! Gold Future price could do a pullback on the red line or just break it. It probably better to observe and wait for a significative break of the red or the blue line, then follow the trend by dollar cost averaging and not letting position float for long time.
COMEX:GC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
short term prediction for coming days +our Gold stratgy green arrow=powerfull buylimit place red arrow=powerfull sellimit place (not advice pick them,higher risk) for comming days buyer pressure , energy + will be high ... Bill wiliams crated AC accelator occilator (or stoch 7.4.4) in daily chart and 1 hour show buy (when on daily chart AC is green mean + trend,buyer comming) save in your mind= our signal (and all world best analysor) 50-60% is true ,we dont have 100% on trade ,so you must put SL under low ,but if you put SL and TP=min 3*SL after 10 posation you must pick safe,stable profit understand? if you cant put SL (touch or remove it) if you cant wait 4-5 day on profit posation if your levrage is above 1-20 (size per 1000$ is above 0.01 or 10$) you must STOP trade on real and back to demo until solve these in my idea if you cant turn 1000$ to 2000$ with fix 0.01 lot , put SL(dont touch) you dont have licence for real if inter real 100% will loss all good advice= in your platform ,hide downside open orders window,dont see orders profit/loss ,only work base on chart,not orders profit,loss=emotion,mistake,close good pos soon (you can hide your SL line on chart too,then you can eat SL easily) STRATGY =when AC daily is green(in down) mean only looking for buy ok? in 1hour when AC go down have 3-4 red line mean buy ok? go to 15min chart put buystop on 15min last high (little upper from high) or on last trend SL=last low TP=fibo 161% or 3*SL if you dont judge soon like stupid ,practice 3 month it on demo pick 50 posation like robot you must see 25 tp 25sl (net profit =50*sl) with practice little by little you will increase your win % if you find above stratgy good please send us min 100$(10000 coin) inside trading view good luck
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ramin_trader2006
5
GDX higher , can VOX Royalty benefitIn 2021 Vox set out ambitious corporate targets for the year with an aim to grow and acquire additional NAV-accretive royalties. By February Vox Royalty announced that it had agreed to acquire a Western Australian gold royalty portfolio from Gibb River Diamonds Ltd for A$325,000 in cash. With a total of 31 Australian royalties, Vox is now the second-largest publicly traded holder of royalty interests in Australia by royalty count, behind Franco Nevada Corporation.    Vox's gold royalty portfolio includes three advanced exploration gold royalties in Western Australia. The royalties include a 1% Net Smelter Return (NSR) royalty over the Bulgera Gold project operated by Norwest Mineral Ltd, a 1% NSR over the Comet Gold Project operated by Accelerate Resources Ltd, and a 1% NSR over the Mount Monger Gold Project operated by Accelerate and subject to a binding option agreement with Mt Monger Minerals Pty Ltd. The Bulgera Gold deposit has an estimated resource of 93,880 gold ounces at 1.0 g/t. With precious metals miners showing a positive reaction to the US10 year yields being capped under 1.7% currently, plus the weakening US dollar there is a real chance that producers ramp up production as prices of the yellow metal appreciate. $2k Gold seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of evaluations around the miners but there is sentiment building that the economy and monetary policy are going to be very supportive of traditional stores of wealth.
V
by TH_Analysis
how pro traders find target TP place + big trader secret assume now we are in green line,cant see right side of it for up target= on 1hour chart find last clear down leg (V shape ) then draw fibonanchi from high to low (enable 161% and 261%) now 161% place many big money traders put TP (like today) if it break buyers next target is fibo 261% can we put sell limit on 161%= no gold is super trendy ,reverse on it is big mistake ,specialy sell note = never draw trendlines ,support ,fibo other traders can see , only draw most clear,most important things for find down target= find last up leg ,draw fibo raytrace on it (start draw from low to high) 100% level must be in down can we put buylimit on fibo -161%= no but somthimes near it we have powerful support and trend line ,then yes you can put buylimit but with SL=6.00$ or low (only buy side on gold,silver ,indexes allowed , pick sell,sellimit on them is stupid) SSSECRET= big traders never inter posation instand by buy,sell , they 99% use buystop,sellstop posation , for example ,gold go down ,reach fibo 161% , pro traders go to 15min chart or 5min put buystop on last high (or down trend) bcuese if gold break high,or trend mean 99% will start new + trend yes he loss 10-15 pip but his inter winrate is very higher than buylimit or buy (think,practice 3 week) dont judge soon , 1 month instead buy ,use buystop on 15min chart last clear high (sl=low) then judge
FX:XAUUSD
by ramin_trader2006
1
GC Holding on SupportThe GC One hour time frame is in a short term down trend. The market is finding support at the back side of the old up channel. It is a good idea to wait for the market to break and close above the down trend line before looking to buy. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: In the sell zone below the entry LIMIT: 1810.10 As long as the market stays above the support level of the old up channel. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / destination trader long opportunities.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
2
US10Y yields and Gold Miners (GDX)Gold is an inflation hedge, so expect to see XAUUSD rising as the CPI and PCE data prints show consistent prints above 2% on average for the year. US10 year yields steepen against the 2-year yield as short-term inflation expectations are crushed by QE and low-interest rates but medium-term inflation risks are starting to show their presence in the cost of commodities, materials, and rising wages. The Fed is adamant that the current signs of inflation will be transitory and as the base effects from last year fall out of the year-on-year data readings the inflationary pressures will ease. Gold producers on the COT report had trimmed their short positions from the beginning of 2021 until April but have started selling more again as the price of Gold bounced off $1700, which make me feel that the range between $1700 to $1900 is here to stay for a while longer. One way to try and capitalise on the price of Gold without the need for it to break $2k necessarily is to invest in a Royalty or Streaming company. With prices for mining output already set, the Royalty companies can still make money even when the gold price is falling. They don't operate mines themselves, and so the huge infrastructure and operating costs do not fall to them.
AMEX:GDX
by TH_Analysis
2