The Gold Odyssey continues... an old but Gold storyBack in 2019, April 29th was the date that Donald Trump tweeted his launch of a trade war with China. This was significant because this was the first time ever, ANY politician took to social media directly to make announcements. Furthermore, it threw markets into a swirl that took a couple of weeks to work out what it wanted. Gold was the first to recover and move in early May 2019. This was a time when I started looking particularly close at Gold charts, having tracking it since October 2018 on a friend's query.
The ride paid off and exited >90% Gold related holdings on 11 August 2020; after taking some off just as the pandemic started in Feb 2020 and repositioning in mid-June 2020. Since then, as Gold prices hit 2K, I often got questions about would Gold prices go further, people were piling into Gold positions as media fanned the Gold rush. I kept telling those who asked that I exited, and yes, Gold will reach back to 2K and more, but it can take years.
Today, those years seemed to have passed.
You see... in the bigger perspective of things, ie. the Monthly chart, there was a Cup forming midway, and when D Trump started tweeting about the trade war, he triggered the closing formation of the Cup. That ended with a blow off top at almost 2100... almost.
Since then, the handle was forming... throughout the latter part of the pandemic to date, Gold was ranging in a wide band to form the Handle.
Again, I wondered what would trigger the closing formation of the Handle...
For those who are (not) familiar... this is the formation of a Cup & Handle Pattern; and one of a very large scale of years. This means to me that the pattern should be more reliable, more explosive (relative to Gold), and takes time to position while having to monitor over months being patient.
It appears that last week's Russia-Ukraine stand-off, with Biden (current POTUS) drumming the war beats spurred Gold into an awakening.
The weekly Gold chart on the left shows the point where I started tracking closely (and positioned) since 2019. Very nice breakout patterns formed since then until August 2020. The vertical timelines are projected dates btw...
So, we can see that Gold clearly broke out last week, and with a nice Gap Up, ending the week with a beautiful bullish candle.
MACD supporting the breakout and this came after bouncing off the Gann Fan support line (white up trend support line) that has been in play since 2019.
Time line projections put a retest over the next 5 weeks into April, before a potential launch point.
Now, I will leave it to you for further discussions what this might mean for global events... because, the next flight up to 2100 is fast and furious into end-June.
The Monthly chart of Gold (on the right) shows the Cup & Handle Pattern, albeit not completed yet. Projections from completion of the C&H pattern puts a 2500 target within the year, and 3100 target some time 2024 and 2025.
The MACD is turning bullish again after receding to baseline, and this bullish cross in the next couple of months can push Gold prices to projected target. A similar technical occurrence like this happened in Jan-May 2019, so it is not impossible there.
Again, what global events would push Gold this high... remains a good discussion topic.
Now... I can understand and accept that there are many other perspective and opinions about Gold. BAck in 2019, when I spoke of increasing volatility in markets, and rising inflation, and Gold prices targeting 2K, very few took notice, let alone believed it possible.
So far, over the last (almost) 3 years, Gold prices have played out as projected; even within a 2 week period of topping out $100 excess off target. Perhaps it is time we relook and revisit Gold... for what value it is worth in weight (not digital, you see... pun intended).
Enjoy! See you all along the way and perhaps in 2025. :)
