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GOLD LongI will be entering a swing long in Gold here.
It is somewhat risky given the downward pressure on Gold and the current correlation with equities but I believe the R/R to be very favorable here.
This is also based on my fundamental view of future monetary and fiscal policy.
The Fed has painted themselves into a corner where they are forced to employ ever more accomodating monetary policy.
This is unlikely to change given that they choose to ignore the obvious signs of inflation, pointing to the CPI which is clearly an inaccurate measure of actual inflation.
Furthermore, they have expressed that they are not really concerned about inflation anyways, and that maximum employment is their primary objective even if it comes with the cost of higher inflation.
The market seems to be pricing in a surprise increase in interest rates, but that's highly unlikely to happen given the reasons above and the fact that the Fed has said they will warn the markets before any rate hike is implemented.
What's more likely is that the Fed will continue their accomodative policy and buy bonds to force yields back down.
On the fiscal side, ever larger stimulus bills continue to be passed, primarily stimulating the demand side while the supply side is still shut down.
Even if we start opening up, it will take some time for the supply side to increase production sufficiently to cover the pent-up demand in the economy.
Based on these reasons I'm entering a swing long position with a wide stop in case there's a spike down to hunt stops.
Trade at you own risk.
Another gold shortSo I enter gold again after stop out thi morning for nice money. Now I enter again because
Fast Hull cross down over slow hull.
gold pull back to resistant line make good entry point
rsi still making lower low with price
price below center regresssioin line
descended triangle which usually meaning reversal, but see price still at top of wedge so still good profiting potential even if reversal at bottom line of wedge. Here I take half profit then watching how price reacts.
also pivot is weak that I show because this weak pivot reacting to prior pivot. So this weakens it.
Gold Futures +900 Tick BullishGC Daily time frame is approaching the up trend line that has history of pushing the market bullish. If support holds, the technical analysis shows a potential +900 Tick bullish push towards resistance can take place. Looking for a bullish trend to form on the one hour time should be a really good idea.
GOLD TRIANGLE REVEALED - OVERALL SHORT - KEY POINT- GC1! - DAILYThanks for the likes and shares. I really appreciated it, hope to help you the best to have another vision of the market acting as a support idea.
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Can you see how overall trend reveals what is probably going on.
As I like to make it simple for you, there is no hazardous moves.
See how the bleu up trending line and the red down trending one are meeting each other perfectly on the horizontal orange line.
-The blue up trending support line is the most important line in this graph. Probably the best area the enter long from that point.
-The red down trending resistance line is maybe the strongest ceiling on the gold price right now. The price has failed with very important and violent decrease in price following right after the failure to break. It is probably the best place to sell from.
- The orange line is likely to act like a gravity center until the end of the triangle, or, even little bit before the end. From that that point you will probably use your own judgement in how to follow the trend. The orange line could be called "the pullback zone" for the moment but it could become "the breaking point" that will lead to a clear run to the bottom blue up trending support line.
Hope that gave you a bit of insight on what I am thinking about the gold at the moment. Any link with the pandemic? Maybe, but I prefer to look only at the charts. For the moment, I would probably be waiting for best moment to sell it.
If gold is going to push bullish... Now is the timeGold Futures on the one hour time frame broke below the most recent support. The market looks like it is about to hit the down one hour fib extension near a known level of U-turn. If buyers are to take control. Now is the time. I am looking for a counter trend line break bullish and a bullish trend to present itself around the current level.
Gold Futures, Short scenario inside the channelToday, we will show a short term analysis we have on Gold Futures:
-It's important to say that in the long term, we have a bullish perspective on GOLD; check the Weekly chart, we think we are on a Cup and Handle pattern, and this type of assets tend to be bullish on uncertainty times (safe heaven assets) with its aligned with the current situation.
-Now, we will focus on the 4HS chart and a possible short setup. The main structure is a descending channel. Currently, we observe a corrective pattern (ABC) supported on the descending channel. If the price breaks below "B," we expect a continuation of the bearish movement towards the 1700 zone. There we expect to find the bottom of the bearish movement.
Thanks for reading!
ridethepig | Gold for ECB📌 ridethepig | Gold for ECB
This leg is a demonstration of how and where an advance on the right break should be punished.
Buyers reclaiming $1.860 yesterday while the inauguration/coachella took place and now $1,875 for the European open is sending last minute ⚠️ signal of ECB preparations. The technical breach illustrates the lust to expand, the momentum has been bottled up for a while.
The swing chain demands a test of $2,015, play with the break because we are now into a very usable ECB territory. Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish on inflation, neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual bs 'watching the currency closely'.
All in all the valid plan here is for Gold higher via inflation. Buyers are already trying the attack, it is quick to set in motion an impulse and buyers have formed a very strong defence at $1,803. Therefore remain long and play the continuation.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
We are back inside the Descending Channel / Bearish Pressure A lot of attention on Gold since we observed the bullish breakout of the descending channel. However, the excitement didn't last long when we had an aggressive bearish movement making the price go again the bearish structure. What now?
Let's start with the Weekly chart:
Here we can observe a Huge bearish engulfing candlestick (Bullish FakeOut of the descending channel). The movement happened on the Previous All-time High zone (working as a resistance zone)
From a Weekly perspective, we can define a target of 1700 if the bearish pressure keeps coming.
Now we will pay attention to the 4HS chart
-Our main structure is the descending channel; the bearish movement found support on the previous support zone (1840).
-We expect the price to correct on this level with similar proportions to the one that happened before (check the green arrow)
-If that happens and we can define a clear ABC pattern, we think that the breakout of it will mean a confirmation for the bearish movement towards the Weekly Target at 1700
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Thanks for reading!
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 04.01.2021📌 @ridethepig Gold Market Commentary 04.01.2021
This is illustrating the notion of 'total mobility', and also touched on a problem which we have not discussed in depth yet, trailing stops.
Here... we can quickly review the text book flows, firstly when you think of development and secondly because Buyers are threatening to become very strong now in the open areas! So a quick recap is urgently required:
An innovative concept. Buyers can avoid the loss of their development, and it can lead towards the home-run.
Worth considering $1,960 as a good and healthy area to do some business. We can now see the slippery risk slope as we enter into a 🔑 week on the elections front. Pence is now the only force to hamper this advance.
Sellers are clearly not happy with the loss of resistance and will seek compensation in a dangerous fashion. They should put up some fight at $1,960 before buyers threaten the break towards fresh all time highs with dollar devaluation to put the icing on top.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Gold - flag pattern breakoutIn our previous analysis about the gold market, we have mentioned a potential ABC simple corrective pattern that has been created within a downward channel. It seems that the C wave has ended at the lower limit within the channel so the first potential target for the bulls has been set at the line drawn through the tops.
However, it has been broken today. It seems that the bulls have taken control over the market and the correction has finished. After the breakout from the flag pattern, the first potential target may be located at the top of 1966 USD and the second one at 2089 USD.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Our plan in case of a bearish scenario on GOLD / UpdateToday we will create a new post based on the Short setup we will be waiting for in case of a bearish resolution in the descending channel.
a) The main structure of the current situation is the Descending Channel; we are working inside that structure
b) Inside the Descending channel, we can see a relevant support resistance zone
c) Currently, the price is on a compression between the current corrective structure (yellow dash-dot line and the upper trendline of the descending channel)
d) IF we have a breakout of the current situation, we will wait for a corrective structure (ABC pattern), and after that, we will trade towards the lower trendline of the descending channel
XAUUSD: Gold bottomed, buy it...I'll just leave this here, I leave the specifics to you, but I believe the selloff in Gold is over and it is about to resume the yearly timeframe uptrend.
My clients and me are long already, and looking to capitalize on this run since it is likely to outperform stocks together with most commodities going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold hits first targetIn our previous analysis, we have mentioned that the price of gold may have finished the whole correction labeled as ABC. The C wave has ended at the lower limit within the main downward channel. Thus, the first potential resistance and the target for the bulls has been set by an upper limit of the mentioned channel.
Recently the price of gold has reached it above 1900 USD per ounce. Currently, the market seems to be moving lower to the first potential support at 1854 USD. If it is defended a potential running correction may appear and then we may expect another impulse wave if the upper limit of the channel is broken.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.