Gold - *RANGE BOUND* - Until it's broken. Will today be the day?What a great pair to trade recently!
Let me explain why - Currencies have lacked momentum of volume. Even though, gold has been range bound the moves has been a lot cleaner on scalp trades including silver too. However, today will be very critical which us trades much pay attention. Jackson Hole Summit, Powell to speak today about monetary policies longer term and various other speakers too during the day.
I will not be trading today, one because well when it comes to speeches it's very unexpected it could go either way and unfortunately i don't have crystal ball to predict the next moves but with the help of technicals!... I will be waiting for what will be being said two things to keep in mind from my last DXY post and I will repeat here today: If it is like the Feds minutes, no changes that's hawkish. If there is further change and more easing etc. that's Dovish. It's important to hold discipline wait 5-10 mins see where the market is heading.
Gold, key trend-line up. I wanted to see how the day closed yesterday we at this top of the range area and as well as that key area, drop below this trend-line up we have the bears in further control, which further decline will have greater opportunities. BUT if we do go above this range and trend-line up I have key profit ideas and resistance areas. I have a non-bias approach as I have written many times in my posts and that's probably best way to approach the markets we are in a CB heavy mode, what they do or say will shift the markets dramatically.
Today keep an eye on: EURO, GOLD, SILVER, DXY, 10 YR Bonds & SPX.
Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
Trade safe,
Trade Journal
Gc!1
Gold - triangle patternWe are still waiting for a potential breakout on the gold market. The price has been consolidating since mid-August. The consolidation looks like a potential symmetrical triangle pattern which is labeled as “abcde”.
This pattern may be a part of a larger corrective structure labeled as ABC. According to the Elliott wave theory, wave B may be a triangle pattern. So if the line drawn through the bottoms is broken we would expect another downward movement as a wave C.
The next possible support seems to be located at 1788 USD and the nearest possible resistance is set by the upper limit within a triangle.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SQUEEZED SELLERS - THE TRADE OF THE DAY - GC - 15MNThe easiest trade to take today on the Gold Future - GC.
After a long drop during Asian session and European one, the American session wakes up involving huge volumes with initially a strong acceleration of the drop in price to later trace the perfect signal of a possible very profitable long entry.
As the sellers has been squeezed, it is later on the buyers who have been squeezed, showing the perfect signal for an exit point.
A long trade but still a day trade. The trade of the day!
GOLD FUTURES GC1 (Swing)Probability: 80% Buy signal!
The market will keep going up.
You can use the Yellow Line as our First Resistance and at The Same Time Our TP1
If a Green Candle Cut with Force the Yellow Line Then We use it as a Support for the Next TP2 ( Blue Line)
Take profit:1961.8
Stop loss:1945.6
Good opportinuity for two trade with circonstances.
ridethepig | Gold📍 It is already well known that we 'should have exposure to Gold', the conduct of the flows happened very fast and appears to be quite over stretched in the immediate term. The disproportion I mention is not very well-handled in methods where investors seek to park in cash.
The great mobility of Gold is known no more, it's difficult to transport and illiquid in end game strategies. The pullback towards $1,800 and $1675 would make things a lot easier on the battlefront. This is achieved by liquidations in Equities.
We also have the following waterfall event in play for Silver, the alerts will remain in play as we approach the apex, and when we arrive it brings together all this energy and momentum, which needs to eat a hearty breakfast!
On the technical side, consult once more with $1,970 as strong resistance and assembled defence. The only decision we need to make as sellers or contrarians is required above. While to the downside - 1,803 and 1,673 are themselves interesting targets.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GOLD FUTURES GC1 (15MIN) SWINGProbability: 65%
We have a Buy signal
Take profit: 1959.80
Stop loss: 1952.2
GC Is Testing the Previous HIGH to Consolidate In triangle Patt.EXPECTATION : the market could continue to consolidate to complete the Triangle pattern. Today, I'm bullish since the market is above the VWAP.
The market may break the triangle from above to reach some previous recent highs as 78.6% Fibonacci Level which corresponds to the 2015 price level (blue arrow).
If the market breaks from below , it may reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level (orange arrow) since it already tested this level 12 August .
Focus on volumes traders!
Gold - market before breakout?Looking at the daily chart of the gold futures we may spot that the price has found potential support at 1911 USD. This level could also be a possible lower limit within a triangle pattern where the upper limit is set by the upper limit within a downward trend channel.
If the support also set by the trendline is broken we may expect another decline which could be labeled as wave C. In a larger perspective we can also expect a potential ABC simple correction.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
GOLD in a REVERSE ZONE, Correction Expected To Last High..The bearish Butterfly pattern is indicating a possible retracement for the GOLD to reach the precedent high reached in year 2011.
When the market will go up again and break the blue horizontal line , the next target is clearly the next Fibonacci Level which corresponds to 2179.1 price.
the Butterfly pattern may be a failing pattern , but the two last candles are comforting my idea. However, we are talking in terms of percentages, so Always keep an eye on volumes and detecting icebergs.
Gold .. prepare for big movement 9/8There are only two options, waiting for confirmation. Keep close and make wealth!
GOLD FUTURES GC1 (15MIN) SWINGProbability: 80%
Good opportinuity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the market will keep going up
Take profit: 1940.1
Stop loss: 1913.5
Note: i use the Tp & SL manually following my own tactics and strategy to close the trade.
Gold Futures (15Min) SwingProbability: 60%
High Risk! the market is not stable and follow a single Trend
The GC1 For Sell ( Short)
Take profit: 1941.7
Stop loss: 1951.5
I can close the trade manually and following my own Strategy signal.
Gold, ready for a new high?From the Gold daily chart, the price, after the breakout of the triangle pattern, came back to retest the bullish support trendline, by missing, for the moment, to close the pullback on the bearish resistance trendline. From here, it could restart to rise towards new highs.
Gold - more complex corrective structureLooking at the daily chart of the gold futures contracts from CME we may spot a complex corrective structure. Previously we have assumed its simplified form. We have to change that view because wave B takes more time to form.
Wave B which consists of three sub-waves labeled as “abc” could create a possible flat correction pattern. If the trendline is broken we could expect another downward wave labeled as wave C.
The possible target is set by the previous top and by the lower limit in a downward channel. It seems that only a move above the line drawn through the tops may change the view from bearish to bullish.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Moment of Truth - US Dollar
The Fed has the markets back - as seen in the equities market.
Euro/Pound are screaming higher, because the news is better there - with that said Fed has been adding liquidity to the system but so has the ECB -$1.52 trillion in stimulus.
Bond Market is saying hey equities no so fast - and to be clear the US Bond market is bigger!
Interesting inflection point - this is the moment of truth, for US Dollar, equities, bonds and gold too.
Grab you popcorn and enjoy the show.
TVC:DXY
Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar
The move is in - easier to go long at this point than try to short the US Dollar or by proxy every other currency pair featuring the USD. At worse you know where to put your stops.
After today's move away from the precipice the decades long trendline continues to hold. TVC:DXY
The mainstream media in this case Reuters has been reporting this for months. This record short position is the fuel longs need to take the USD higher.
If the US Dollar does move higher expect Silver and Gold to come off.
For now if you're looking to go short - I would let the trendline break before entering.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar positioning soared to the highest since August 2011, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the net short dollar position hit $24.27 billion in the week ended July 28, from net shorts of $18.81 billion the previous week.
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss July 31, 2020 / 4:23 PM
GC1 Gold Futures (Buy Signal)Probability: 80%
Read Carefully
The market will keep going up
Take profit & Stop loss: montioned on the chart
If the Green Candle Cut the TP line with Force => use the Yellow line as a Resistance + New Take Profit 2.
If the Green Candle Cut the Yellow Line With Force => Use Orange Line as A resistance + TP3 and use the Yellow Line as a Support.
Note: All Tp & SL ( Manually) and i follow my own strategy to Close the trade
Gold - possible ABC correctionThe price of gold after a strong rally has been creating a potential corrective movement that could be labeled as ABC. The correction occurs after a significant price increase so there could be a stronger pullback (approximately 15%).
Currently, after the potential wave A and wave B the wave C may appear. However, it could happen only after a trendline breakout. If the line is broken we may expect a decline to the 100% Fibo expansion or to the previous resistance at 1788 USD.
It seems that only a move above the upper limit in a downward channel may be an indicator for the end of the correction.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Gold - key spot for the metalKey time for OANDA:XAUUSD and GC1! , as gold continues to consolidate inside the triangle.
Breakout above resistance at ~1970 would indicate strong possibility of trend continuation and new ATH.
However, if support levels are not held, risk of much stronger and deeper pullback to at least ~1700$ is likely to be starting
Somewhat similiar logic can be applied to OANDA:XAGUSD as well right now
Technical expectation of gold retracement signals for next weeksSince the gold has corrected the increasing behavior last 3 weeks, the harmonic pattern tells us that It may retrace to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (The Fibonacci that works well when spotting the highs and bottoms), and join some previous supports and resistances ( the orange line is the mainline that tells us the history of gold for 20 years ).
This is a pure technical analysis, the gold could continue the increasing behavior ( due to speculation bubbles especially after the interest of Warren Buffet recently on gold)
GC1 GOLD FUTURES (15MIN) Buy SignalPlease Read it carefully
Probability:
- 80% for the TP 1
65% for The TP 2
55% TP3
The market will keep going up
stop loss: The orange line ( close it manually)
Take profit:
If the Candle cut with Force the first resistance ( Green line) => New Take profit 2 , if not: Take profit.
if the candle cut with Force the Yellow line ( TP 2) => the GC1 may touch the Blue line, if not TP.
