gold on monday 28 june show sell look like gold want touch 1740 trend line
so put sellstop in low,buylimit around 1740(for hold until 1960) is best trades for now
GC
for comming week ,scenario on daily chart 1-switch trend on gold = gold always after crash , 2-3 day turn range then start go up to 1820
in down we have big trendline in 1740 - powerfull support in 1675 - then on weekly chart fibo 61% in 1450 $
2 in comming week if gold break low 1770 can go to 1740 (powerfull buylimit place with sl=10.00) then start powerfull trend to 1920 then 1960
take look open orders on gold futures by larg banks and fund money managers
prnt.sc
they had heavy close buys ,but dont inter big sells (for this gold cant go up in 4-5 days ago,they close buys in high,couse gold be range,zigzag , this show retail traders buying ) if gold can break high and close on high ,they can start buy , personaly i think they are waiting 1740(big trend) to inter heavy buy for hold longterm to around 2000$
gold hardly break 3angel,,,now have buystop signal buystop on high with sl=low its target is daily Sma200 and fibo 61%
if you have old buy on up , 100% put sellimit on daily sma200 and fibo 61%( lot size =0.5*total buys)
AC daily is green (show buyer and + trend will come) when AC 1hour go down,full red you can buy with sl=6.00$ ttp=18.00$ ( on this stratgy eat 5sl in 10 is normal , if you remove sl can margincall you,,,after set sl ,dont remove it,never)
ALERT=IF GOLD BREAK LOW 1770 CAN CRASH TO 1740 TREND (buylimit place)
note=on my chart ,downer indicator is BACKWARDATION indicator to show gold cfd and gold futures price spread
ALERT=gold break today low = open door to downer 1740boys we have powerfull big trend in 1740 , many trader focus on it , if gold break low can melt to 1740(powerfull buylimit place with sl=10.00)
if you have old buy , put hedge sellstop in low 1770 (after sell open,dont close it in low,allow gold go down and back to up , open price ,then close it , give time to go upper)
finaly daily stoch and AC give buy signal
gold next target is fibo 38% then daily sma200 then fibo 61% (green fibo in right side is growing fibo)
personaly near big trend 1820 i will sell with sl=10 trailstop=10 (if you want sell ,100% put sl and dont touch it)
if sl fill , big trend 1820 break,gold will fly up and big money traders start heavy buy and gold will back to high
strongly advice put SL on high,low or 6.00$ and dont remove it
if you have old buy ,dont close them soon ,give time go up (if lot size is high ,reduce it instead close) gold can see 1960 in next 20 day(if news not comes) gold love go up
dont panic ,any rate change yet , FED only speak about it if your experience is under 7 year ,strongly advice dont inter this panic market(gold,silver,eurusd) ,go and rest this week until + up trend appear ,then looking for buy
AFTER I SPEAK WITH MY FRIENDS , CITI BANK TRADERS AND BIG FUND MANAGERS :WE FIND NO REAL THING BEHIND CRASH
mr pawell say :we expect (maybe, forecast ) change rate in 2023 (after 2 year)
i cant understand this crash on eurusd ,DXY then gold , he only say his idea ,no any 100% action , even be real action ,it will happend in 2023 not now !!!!!!!!! this is real emotion crash joke
www.cnbc.com
in other side even DXY going up , yield US10Y bond yield going down ,this mean gold value must go up (when yield ging down, more investor comes to buy gold)
predict= in this week effect of DXY even go up will ease , gold big money traders will start buy , range,zigzag with + trend can start(for switch trend) ,after emotion on EURUSD ease ,gold will back to high again (in next 20 day)
if AC on daily chart turn green , 90% up trend will start (i am very hard waiting AC turn green on daily chart)
let see AC on monthly chart too ,show main trend is + up
i want you success , advice looking for buy and hold it 3-4 week until 1960 ,,,, current price is very very low for gold ,soon or late gold must see 2000$
Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next?
I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO.
As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels.
This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on.
So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY.
This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution.
A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations.
One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune.
Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency.
Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet.
When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;)
Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar.
Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to.
As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
Gold volatility in playThe sudden drop in Gold was expected (privately shared) within a circle. But what was surprising was the immense drop, spurred by the sudden spike in the USD.
Noted that there appears to be an inverse Head adn Shoulders pattern forming, and the neckline and extension is marked in purple.
Projection for down and a fast up to 2100 in mid-October 2021 (previously September).
Watch for the bounce!
you must buy this 2 powerfull buy and hold 15 day sorrily eurusd emotional go down,effect DXY dollar go up
DXY go up effect gold go down but soon will ease ( US10Y yield go down will push gold up in next days )
advice = buylimit above green arrow and hold buys min 20 day to near high (dont close soon with little profit)
Gold history from 1950 show if gold 50$ go down,100$ will go up ,see march 2020 crash
gold reach fibo 61% fibo 61% and fibo 161%(for find tp) are most important fibo on gold
lets see AC and stoch and ichimoku(not very important) on daily chart
ichimoku give buy
stoch is sell ,but going to buy in next 2-3 candel
AC is red ,mean trend is sell but going to green(mean up trend comming) personaly i am waiting AC daily turn green , then big pro buyer like banks,fund trader will buy
like gold manner before ,gold love double bottom , it can double bottom then in next 7-8 day going to up
(best place for buy with SL under low)
i have 3 buy (gray arrow on chart) imposible i close them sooner than 1920-1960
if you have buy and your lot size is pro traders lot (1000$ max 0.01 lot) 100% be relax , gold will see high in next 2-25 day , just dont close buy soon ,try wait min 1920)
if you open big lot , understand i (anybody)cant predict unexpected breaking news, (for this i ask 1000 time reduce your levrage to 10 max 20 and 1000$ 0.01 lot) your problem is money manage , after close orders,stop trade on real , witdrawal all money,back to demo work on 1000$ balance and 0.01 lot and put SL in low , if dont do 100% you willl 0.00 in next nexs soon or late
GC Daily time frame at low priceGC Daily time frame is in an up trend. The market
is making higher highs and higher lows. The daily
time frame is moving from a high price towards
a low price. Turning to the one hour time frame
and looking for the market to enter into the buy
zone will be a great idea.
There is an up Fibonacci extension above the live
market price point 1922.4 about +1,450 ticks away.
Once or if the market can break the down trend
line on the one hour, that would be a great
place to look for long trades.
gold double bottom creatingAC daily red push gold down
if you cant buy before,put buylimit aroung 1842
if you have buy ,dont fear ,pull back is normal when you want pick trend (gold want create new double bottom (i was say yesterday)
after buy open ,10 day give time for grow,,,dont close with little profit like stupid new traders ,close thease buys sooner than 1960 show you are week in trade control,self control
after 15.00$ profit ,move sl to open price , let it go to 1960 or exit with 0
gold next target= SMA200 1hour chart 1880becouse AC daily is red (AC 60min is red too),gold is range ,when AC turn green gold can fly up
strongly advice dont open reverse posation(sell for now) on gold,silver , instead reverse looking for buystop on high (4-5 pip above) ,buy in low
our main target for close buys =1960 support (can take 5-6 day)
Short-Term GC The direction of GC futures is UP but the 2D bar has opened with a SSTO SELL and that is generating an arrow signaling SELL. It is very unlikely that the SSTO will close above 80. I will still consider the direction to be UP until it does close.
There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this
There is a 1M BUY weakness ( WK ) indicator to confirm short/medium term
There is the 2D 6UP to conflict this
There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal
There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP.
Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1864, 2W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $90, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $90 / 0.02 = $4,500 minimum.
The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already approaching the bottom of the support zone so buying is reasonable. Unfortunately the SL is above the support of 2D 18 SMA. This makes it possible that the SL will fill and price will rise directly after.
The original plan was to wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week. Since then, the short term condition is greatly improving with a 2H 6DN as shown on the chart. This is a relatively new indicator I am using. That is enough short-term confirmation for me to try buying. The 1D BB condition did change to 1D 1XP. This will allow gold to reach targets within its monthly range.
Like I said I think this 2H 6DN is enough to confirm a pause in targeting the 2D 6UP.
finaly gold reach 1850,as we predict on high 20 days ago i hope you can pick buy in low ,dont close it soon like new traders ,move sl to open price and wait 10 day
2 way can happen but both target is 1960
strongly advice stand on buyside,looking buy in deep , dont pick sell signals ,gold can fly up
if you cant inter buy , you must wait double bottom or buystop on 1904 trend break
after 1960 gold next target is 2060
trend break ,sell signal comes you can sell now AC daily turn red , break trend stratgy have sweet sell tp=above 1840
but 100% put SL on high and use low lot size (sell is high risk on gold,silver)
in 10 posation like this i eat 4sl 6 tp
i personaly dont pick sell , i will wait to buy in 1840
USA/GOLD: the truth about $SPX-Why is the SPX a lie?
For starters it weights the 500 most desirable companies and, to continue, its unit of reference is the dollar... an "unbacked" currency (as crypto fanatics say with some reason... people so blinded by their infatuation that from a half-truth they are capable of elaborating truths of a ton or even more).
-Ok, and what do you want to invent, wifi rebel?
There is no need to invent anything, luckily: besides the marketer SPX there is also the NYA that considers more than 2000 NYSE companies... and I believe NYA more than SPX, to make a long story short. And the dollar, although it is backed by much more than ink and paper (because behind this bill is the most powerful economy on the planet and not Argentina or Venezuela), anyway it has a lot of lies and the CPI (US Consumer Price Index) proves it every day.
-And what about that?
And with that it seems clear to me that we should not pay so much attention to the SPX or the dollar... especially having the NYA and gold to get a historical ratio that reflects the ups and downs in the romance between Mr. Gold and Mr. Stock Market (let's be inclusive).
-And why don't you put CPI into this ratio?
Well, I don't think it's necessary inasmuch as both constituents are equally affected by the depreciation of the greenish paper... so the ratio itself gives us ecumenical information on the binomial. Amen.
**********************************************************************************************************
Well, let's get more serious:
What we get concretely from looking at this ratio is HOW MANY GOLDEN CONTRACTS THE NYA CAN PAY OUT OVER TIME.
It's that simple and that far-reaching... because if we're going to bother with "FIAT money blablabla", well then let's measure the US market in GOLD and stop whining pseudo-arguments. Does it make sense or not? I say yes...
Now let's break it down:
1) the trend line below is impressive: it has three millimeter contact points... so precise that, somehow, they are backing up all the chatter I wrote above: the truth of the USA MKT is in GOLD and not USD;
2) seen this way bubbles and crises don't match sooooo much with the orthodox look in USD;
3) the "real SPX" is still bullish in very long term ... but since 2000 and the .com explosion it is still in bearish mode ... Yes: 20 years losing against gold, it's that simple ....
4) however we also see a very clear triangle figure... that was overcome to pull back to a millimeter throwback against that important TL... and now what we have is a very interesting resistance at 9.60 (NYA is paying 8.76 gold contracts and if it reaches to pay more than 9.60, "it blows up" a timberman would say).
***********************************************************************************************************
Conclusion:
I actually think all these arguments make sense, rationally speaking, and what I see here is very reassuring to me about "the current bubble" that has been talked about for a long time. Why? Because that bubble is measured in the "lie" of the dollar... so it is worth as much as a lie (i.e. nothing), and on the other hand in gold we have a symmetrical triangle of upward continuation that is about to be executed... with targets so astronomical that not even the most smokeseller "twistar" would dare to handle it.
Think about it...
what is backwardation ?backwardation = spread beetween gold futures price - gold cfd price
when spread is + high is signal of buy (up trend comming)
www.marketwatch.com
GC One hour. +350 Tick bullish pushThe GC one hour time frame is in a large up trend.
The market hit the up trend and is showing signs
of pushing bullish towards the daily up Fibonacci
extension price point 1922.4 about +350 ticks
away.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the
buy zone.
STOP: 1846.5
LIMIT: 1922.4
As long as the market stays above the long
term up trend line. It will be a good idea to
turn to the five minute time frame and to look
for tunnel trader long / destination trader
long opportunities.
The Direction Of Gold Is UP TemporarilyThe direction of GC futures is UP
There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this
There is a 1M BUY weakness (WK) indicator to confirm short/medium term
There are no 'active' indicators to conflict this
There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal
There are warning signs of the 2D 6UP which filled 50% so it made an attempt to fill and not much more can be expected although typically 33.3% (1844.1) is reached for more bullish potential.
There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP.
Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1889, 1W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $340, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $340 / 0.02 = $17,000 minimum.
The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already at the top of the support zone so buying is reasonable but because the support zone is wide, the SL is difficult to place. I do have 2 potential SL to use which I forgot to label on the chart. 1 would be the up trend line beginning 3/31 and the other would be the 1W LOW. Unfortunately these both fall above the support of 2D 18 SMA. Not only that, but there is the 2D 6UP 33.3% below that support zone. Like I said, the techincals of GC are an exhausting mess. I would wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week.
XAUUSD the target we are aiming for. Today, we will share with you a 4hs chart on XAUUSD
- In April, we opened long positions on the precious metal, and after two months, we are close to our expected target
- As you can see, after the breakout of the descending channel, we observed a straight bullish movement with an ascending trendline as the main structure of the current situation.
- Currently, we are observing a consolidation situation on the price after breaking a key resistance zone now working as support (1850 - 1860). We expect the price to stay above that level (otherwise, we will start thinking that our view is not going as expected)
- Regarding the long-term view we have on XAUUSD. If we look at a daily chart or weekly chart, we can see that the descending channel is actually a Flag pattern of a huge impulse. And we think the bullish trend will continue in the future, making new ATH. However, we also expect a several weeks correction on the next resistance zone (where we are planning to close our entry)
- Let's finish this post with the core idea. "The Target": We will be closing 100% of our position on the Green circle, we don't want to trade exactly on the edge of the resistance zone, and we rather sacrifice some pips and gain security on the target of our position.
- It would not be crazy to observe an apparent breakout of the resistance zone, giving the impression that the price will keep going up; however, based on the study we made of previous situations like this one, we think a correction in that zone has a high probability.
Thanks for reading!
Ready for a Move
Circled are at .78 Fib retracement you can see two wicks - these were two quick rejections.
I was able to sell both of them and took some profit today at yesterdays VPOC today.
HOWEVER look at this price action, it went nowhere today yet managed to sweep longs and shorts.
We are sitting at the top of a multi-month trend line (see related ideas) , we are also sitting on the weekly and monthly VWAPS.
We have completely balanced - and now here comes the move.
Looking at the RSI on the back test you'll notice how weak it is - and it was quick (barely got filled)
Targets : the obviously one is the VPOC shown at 1872, HOWEVER There are more. I believe we could see 1836 to 1818. There are VPOCs there and high volume nodes to offer support.
Plan: If you we get one more back test (fake move) you can take a short in the highlighted area yellow box - if price shows strength past the .78 Retracement - its invalidated.
To get into this trade you might have to do so at the Asian open at 9 EST. Mostly likely they try to ramp it and sell it to retail on their open.
