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Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX. Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside. Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later. Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks). Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday) Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom. Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time. Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
2
Too steep, too quickly...After literally months of waiting, we finally signaled that gold had reached some attractive price levels on 2nd October 2023. Subsequently, gold bottomed out in the next four days and rose more than $150 from its lows. While these gains are impressive, we are starting to grow very skeptical about how much higher gold can go from the current level. That’s because stocks are beginning to manifest signs of weakness, and in the case of significant selling pressure in the stock market, we think investors will be forced to cover losses elsewhere by liquidating their gold position (especially willing to do so with its recent gains). Hence, we are on high alert and closely monitoring the situation. Technical analysis gauge Daily = Bearish Weekly = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Gold futures eyes $2,577 in acceleration of upside impulseA pullback in yellow wave (2) almost hit 61.8% of yellow wave (1). Now we see the strong minor impulse to the upside. It can be a part of large yellow wave (3). The target is projected at the distance of 1.618x of wave (1) with aim at $2,577. Watch how price breaks above the top of wave (1) beyond $2,086 Risk/reward is 1:2.5, one could get it better if goes on a lower time frame and buys on minor pullback following minor wave 1 of (3). Do you see gold futures touching $2,577?
COMEX:GC1!Long
by aibek
Gold in danger as stocks keep fallingFinally, our expectations were fulfilled, and gold dropped below $1,900 yesterday. We continue to be bullish on gold in the long term. However, in the short and medium term, we are still inclined toward the scenario with gold sliding lower, likely testing $1,875 (and potentially $1,850 if the weakness in the stock market does not stop). Therefore, just like in the past few months, we remain waiting for a better opportunity to add more gold to our portfolio. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
More downside for gold is probableIn line with our previous ideas and choppy price action, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to add gold to our portfolio. We are neutral to slightly bearish in the short term while bullish in the long term. However, we still deem a weakness in the stock market as a danger to the higher price of gold (at least for now). As a result, we believe gold's price is still not out of the woods. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see it plunge below $1,900 again in the foreseeable future. This possibility is indicated by technicals on the daily and weekly charts, which are growing increasingly bearish. Therefore, more weakness for gold is probable. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which failed to hold above the midpoint. That is a bearish development. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Unclear path for gold Almost two weeks ago, we touted gold’s retest of the support at $1,900 and the potential continuation lower to $1,875. However, soon after that, gold halted its decline slightly below $1,885 and reversed. Subsequently, it went above $1,920. For the most part, this move coincided with the relief in the stock market. Therefore, we remain on high alert and somewhat undecided about the next path for gold. Technicals on the daily time frame turned slightly bullish, with Stochastic and RSI pointing to the upside. But DM+ and DM- still suggest the presence of a downtrend, and MACD hovers in the bearish territory. To bolster a bullish case in the short term/medium term, we would like to see MACD break above the midpoint and RSI with Stochastic continue to develop bullish structures. Besides that, we want to see the stock market stabilizing (as we think the market weakness still threatens the higher price of gold). To summarize this short article, we are neutral in the short-term and medium-term and bullish in the long term. In accordance with that, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to buy gold. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and two simple moving averages that act as alternative resistance levels. In the next few days, we will observe their ability to stop the rising prices. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
Choppiness to translate into weakness?The gold market has been volatile in the past few days, prompting us to maintain a neutral stance in the short term. However, what caught our interest during this time was MACD trying to cross through the midpoint on the daily chart. If successful, this event will likely coincide with more weakness in gold, potentially dragging it toward the area between $1,900 and 1,910 (and eventually, maybe even lower). Besides concerning MACD, indicators like RSI and Stochastic also show bearish signs. As a result, we are growing a bit bearish on gold in the short term (though we remain bullish in the long term). It would not surprise us to see investors take profits from gold if the selloff in stocks continues. We saw this occurrence in 2022 on multiple occasions, and we think it is also a real possibility in the future. Therefore, we continue to wait for a better bargain before adding more gold to our portfolio. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily MACD approaching the midpoint. Technical analysis Daily = Slightly bearish Weekly = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
17
BRICS, gold-backed currency, and challenge to the U.S. dollarEven if you are not a gold bug, you have probably caught the news about central banks being on a gold-buying spree, with 2022 marking the record year for central bank purchases. This trend has not stopped in 2023, and many countries intensified the diversification of their reserves amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and high inflation in the United States. For some time now, we have considered this interest among central bankers as a very positive development for gold, making a case for higher prices in the long term. But more recently, we might have found another catalyst for the gold price. According to multiple media news outlets, the BRICS countries plan to introduce a new gold-backed currency in August 2023 at the organization’s summit in Johannesburg, South Africa (though Anil Sooklal, South Africa's ambassador to BRICS, denied these claims just a few days ago). Despite contradictory narratives between media and the BRICS officials, the shift to a gold-backed currency would be a monumental event in the world of finance, given that there has not been any gold-backed currency since U.S. President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold on 15th August 1971. This move, often referred to as the “Nixon Shock,” effectively marked the end of the Bretton Woods System, under which most of the world's currencies were tied to the dollar, which itself was tied to gold. Since then, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 96% of its purchasing power, and gold has risen from $40 to over $1,900. Should the BRICS countries proceed with the introduction of a new gold-backed currency, it would greatly elevate gold's role in the international monetary system (especially when considering that BRICS recently overtook the G7 in terms of global GDP and another dozen countries asked to join the group). Furthermore, such a move would likely trigger a new wave of currency wars between the West and East, critically challenging the U.S. dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Perhaps the erosion of purchasing power in fiat currencies would not be immediate with the introduction of this new gold-backed currency. Yet, history is laden with instances where the re-emergence of sound money has displaced the use of fiat currencies, particularly those lacking tangible backing. The transition can be a gradual process, slowly but steadily reshaping the landscape of global finance. Therefore, it's imperative now more than ever to stay attuned to the shifts and tremors within the financial world and to brace for an unpredictable future. The historical link between currency wars and actual conflicts is a stark reminder that these economic maneuvers carry weight far beyond monetary value. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the monthly chart of XAUUSD. The dashed white line indicates how much gold has grown in price since “Nixon’s shock.” Technical analysis Daily = Bullish (with signs of weakness) Weekly = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
6
Selling pressure on halt and potential trend reversal In our previous article on gold, we noted that we were still not turning bullish in the short-term as technicals on the daily and weekly time frame pointed to more downside. However, prior to that, we also noted that one development stood out to us, and it was decreasing volume accompanying the falling price. We stated this was a positive development for gold, suggesting that selling pressure has declined. Subsequently, we touted to watch this metric in the next few days. Following lows near $1,893, volume continued to fall, further fortifying our assessment about decreasing selling pressure (now suggesting that the short-term trend might be finally reversing from bearish to bullish). Consequently, we change our short-term stance from bearish to neutral. For us to grow bullish, we would like to see gold break above its 20-day SMA and hold above this level. In case of a drop in the price, we would like to see it hold above $1,910. If the price fails to do so, it will raise our concern over more downside for gold. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
4
GC1! Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear friends , I analysed this chart on GC1!, and concluded the following: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1944.1 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Goal - 1966.1 My Stop Loss - 1931.9 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
COMEX:GC1!Long
by AnabelSignals
10
Gold and stocks are showing more signs of decouplingAfter expressing our concerns about gold's rally in early May 2023, we saw it tumble as low as $1,932.11 just two days ago. Since this low, gold’s price rebounded above $1,970 and then weakened again. Currently, it trades near $1,955 per troy ounce. That brings us to a similar assessment as in our previous article, and we will pay attention to the two closest levels of importance, particularly near $1,952 (support) and $1,959 (resistance). If the price breaks below the support, it will be bearish for the short-term; contrarily, if it breaks and holds above the resistance, it will be bullish. Regarding technical indicators on the daily time frame, we are observing MACD, which is slightly flattening; if it starts turning to the upside (and eventually breaks above the midpoint), it will be a bullish sign. The same applies to rising RSI and Stochastic (and also to converging DM+ and DM-). As for our current stance, we continue to be worried about gold’s performance in the short term as it is still possible that more downside will follow. Despite that, there is one development we are starting to notice increasingly more. Last year, when the stock market was declining, it weighed on gold, which saw investors taking profits in order to cover losses elsewhere. As of late, however, gold has been sold off as the stock market turned into this “complacency” phase, with approximately six companies dragging the whole U.S. market higher. We plan to be attentive to this decoupling, as it might be a very important development for gold going forward, and we can start seeing it perform well despite stocks selling off. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. We will pay close attention to volume. If it continues to decline, that might suggest that the selling pressure is cooling off. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
9
Gold 4hour : as predicted on high ,it reach 1925 ,now we mustwe must wait gold reach big trendline area and create buy pinbar on 1h-4h-daily chart ,then pick buy with SL in pinbar low and hold it 30 day to near 2020 area (then can reach 2200) let see gold futures daily candels and AC indicator DONT INTER GOLD WITHOUT PINBAR VERFY ,,,with bad news it can go downer,,,inter safe late buy better than risky buy dont close this excellent buy soon lke new traders ,,,try wait too much (mini crash on up trend is normal,dont fear from go down) ,,,pro trader can wait above 3 month(yearly profit is important,not daily) 100% i wish you win ❤️
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ramin_trader2006