GOLD falls sharply then recovers slightly from key confluenceOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply and recovered slightly, as expectations of more such deals increased after US President Donald Trump announced a “groundbreaking” trade deal with the UK, undermining the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The US and UK have reached a deal and markets are expecting more “tariff-free” avenues
Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announce the signing of a trade deal
• The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%;
• The US will maintain a uniform tariff of 10% on UK imports;
• The UK will further ease market access for US goods.
The US and China will continue high-level talks this Saturday
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with top Chinese economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss the outlook for trade relations.
Gold prices have hit record highs in recent months, largely due to global tensions caused by Trump's tariff policies.
China's central bank allows banks to buy foreign currency to import gold, signaling potential support
The People's Bank of China has approved commercial banks to buy foreign currency in the latest quota to pay for gold imports, supporting the possibility of increased physical gold demand in the market in the future.
With the implementation of the US-UK agreement, the recovery of risk appetite in the market and the approaching US-China negotiations, the safe-haven demand for gold has temporarily eased, and technical downward pressure has also emerged.
In addition, traders need to pay special attention to geopolitical developments with the focus on Russia - Ukraine when Ukraine has taken actions despite Russia's warnings on May 9.
Any escalation of the conflict will immediately support gold's sudden price increase.
Analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook
On the daily chart, after a sharp decline from the weekly target of $3,430, gold's decline has paused and recovered slightly from the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The area around $3,292 is also an important support area as it is a confluence of important technical support factors, with the appearance of EMA21 (major support), the lower edge of the price channel which is the short-term trend price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
As long as gold remains above $3,292, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and in case gold falls below this level, it will likely test technical support at $3,267 in the short term, more than $3,245.
For the day, with the current position, gold still has a bullish outlook, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,267
Resistance: $3,351 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3338
→Take Profit 1 3326
↨
→Take Profit 2 3320
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3259 - 3261⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3255
→Take Profit 1 3267
↨
→Take Profit 2 3273
Gc1
Down nearly 2% on Wednesday, GOLD still rebounds quickly on riskOANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 2% on Wednesday (May 7), mainly due to a stronger US dollar and optimism from upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, while the Federal Reserve's "standstill" also added pressure on gold prices. However, it was supported by escalating geopolitical risks.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising risks to both maximum employment and price stability. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook continue to increase,” the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee is concerned about bilateral risks to its dual mandate and sees increasing risks to unemployment and inflation.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a neutral tone, saying the current policy stance was appropriate and the Fed was in no rush to adjust interest rates. He stressed that the Fed was prepared to act “quickly as needed” if circumstances changed, but warned that the Fed’s goals would not be fully achieved if tariffs remained in place.
Powell added that if either side of the dual mandate deviates too much, the Fed will evaluate which policy tool to use to achieve rebalancing.
When asked which mandate, inflation or employment, should receive more attention, he said it was too early to tell.
The market consensus remains that the Fed will not cut rates before July. In a higher interest rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is often under pressure.
Big news on China-US trade talks
China and the US announced that US Treasury Secretary Besant and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The talks are the first since US President Donald Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on China and have raised optimism that the two largest economies can reach a deal.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation delegation, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during his visit to Switzerland. - Bloomberg -
India-Pakistan tensions spiral after attack, risk of further escalation fuels demand for safe havens
India's airstrike on Pakistan has stoked tensions, raising fears of a full-blown war between the two nuclear-armed nations.
India launched missiles at nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir early on May 7 in response to a shooting that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, two weeks ago. The Indian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck facilities used by "terrorist groups" to carry out the Pahalgam attack.
The Indian Air Force has mobilized many modern weapons, including Rafale multi-role fighters carrying SCALP-EG stealth cruise missiles and AASM Hammer extended-range guided bombs and cruise missiles. The target coordinates were provided to the forces participating in the campaign by Indian intelligence agencies.
Images released by the media show the moment the series of missiles crashed into the target, creating large fire circles and violent explosions. Pakistan said at least 26 people were killed in this attack. -According to Vnexpress -
Gold is an asset that often benefits first when market risks appear, and India is also a leading gold-using country in the world.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's decline, gold continues to receive support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area with horizontal support at $3,350 as noted by readers in yesterday's edition and it is now also aiming for a target of $3,430.
Once gold breaks $3,430 it will be in a position to continue its rally with a target of around (all-time high) in the short term.
Technical factors are completely bullish, from the short-term trend noted by the rising price channel and the long-term trend from the rising price channel. On the other hand, the nearest support is also the EMA21.
The relative strength index RSI is still quite far from the 80 level and the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth ahead and gold is likely to continue to increase in terms of momentum in the coming time.
During the day, the main bullish outlook for gold prices in terms of technology will be noted again by the following levels.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,430 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
US-China optimism, GOLD falls sharply from target levelIn early morning trading on Wednesday (May 7), spot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly 2%. Bloomberg said that despite the escalation of military conflict between India and Pakistan, signs of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China have limited demand for safe-haven assets.
Previously, gold prices had surged for two consecutive trading days. Spot gold prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday.
China and the United States announced that U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant and U.S. Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Today (Wednesday), a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said that China has decided to cooperate with the United States.
Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation team, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during a visit to Switzerland. It is the first such meeting since US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on China and has raised optimism that the two largest economies could reach a deal.
Gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year as Trump’s aggressive trade and geopolitical policies have caused widespread market turmoil and investors have sought safe havens. Gold hit a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April but has fallen in recent weeks.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision later Wednesday, and policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged despite Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates.
Fed officials have often stressed the need to wait and see how the trade policies implemented last month will affect the economy. Lower borrowing costs tend to be good for gold.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold achieved the target increase noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 3,430 USD, it has fallen significantly in the early trading session today (7 May). But the downside momentum is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the nearest support level and for gold to continue to increase in price, it needs to achieve the condition of recovering and breaking the 3,430 USD level after which traders can think about the 3,500 USD level in the near future.
During the day, in the overall picture, gold still has a bullish outlook with the long-term rising price channel and the short-term rising price channel as the trend and support from the EMA21 moving average.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within/above the aforementioned price channels, the overall outlook remains bullish, but you should also note that in the current market environment, price movements of 2-3%/day are very common, so technical positions need to be firmly established (preferably at confluences where multiple indicators are present).
My notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3337 - 3339⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3333
→Take Profit 1 3345
↨
→Take Profit 2 3351
XAUUSD: Channel Up aiming for 3,750Gold has turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.582, MACD = 62.840, ADX = 38.882) as it crossed above the 4H MA50 again, following a bottom on the HL trendline of the 4H Channel Up. The 4H RSI made a DB and the new bullish wave is already underway. We expect a similar +18% rally to the top of the Channel Up (TP = 3,750).
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GOLD soars, geopolitical risks escalateIn the early morning trading session on Tuesday (May 6), the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly jumped more than 50Dollar in the short term. The price of gold just hit 3,387USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high.
Trump's latest tariff announcement has increased risk-off sentiment, thereby pushing the price of gold up sharply.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he plans to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-made films, extending his restrictive trade policy on U.S. imports to the entertainment industry for the first time, rekindling investor concerns about the potential fallout from a global trade war.
On Monday local time, Trump signed an executive order on biomedical research, hoping to use this opportunity to boost the US pharmaceutical industry. Trump also announced that tariffs on pharmaceutical products will be announced within the next 2 weeks.
Gold is often considered a safe haven in times of uncertainty and performs well in low interest rate environments. Gold prices have soared 26.3% this year and have set new historical records several times.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions surrounding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia are also escalating as Ukraine actively attacks despite warnings from Russia. On May 9, Russia will solemnly celebrate the 80th anniversary of Victory Day - a significant historical milestone with the participation of many international politicians and military corps from many countries participating in the parade at Red Square.
Geopolitical risks often impact the market very quickly and dramatically, gold prices will increase sharply whenever geopolitical risks appear as dangerous as the current situation in Ukraine - Russia.
Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD prospects
On the daily chart, after gold received support and recovered from the confluence area of EMA21 and 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, gold showed prospects of continuing to recover and entering a new technical bullish cycle, bringing price activity back above $3,300.
At the time of writing, gold has reached the weekly target level sent to readers in the weekly publication at $3,371, which is also the current nearest resistance. Once gold remains stable above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the prospect of continuing to increase with the next target around $3,400 – $3,430 in the short term.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned upward with a significant slope after receiving support from the 50 area, which should be considered a positive signal for further bullish expectations.
Intraday, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with the main support from the EMA21, the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,267USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3409 - 3407⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3413
→Take Profit 1 3401
↨
→Take Profit 2 3395
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3306 - 3308⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3302
→Take Profit 1 3314
↨
→Take Profit 2 3320
GOLD Regains Above 3'300, since US stocks "Relief Rally" is OverGold prices recently surged above $3,300 per ounce due to a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and monetary factors driving strong safe-haven demand:
Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and ongoing US-China trade disputes, have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek Gold as a secure store of value amid instability.
The US dollar's weakness, nearing a three-year low, has further boosted gold's appeal for holders of other currencies, making Gold relatively cheaper and more attractive globally.
What is most important also, U.S. stock rally has overed recently its tedious 10-Day winning strike (fortunately which finished not at all the history peaks). That's why investors may be turning back to tried-and-true assets like Gold.
Central banks, notably China’s, have been consistently buying gold to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, supporting prices significantly. China increased its Gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month, signaling sustained institutional demand.
Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record inflows, reflecting growing investor interest beyond traditional buyers.
Market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in 2025 have also played a key role. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its investment appeal amid inflation concerns and economic growth uncertainties.
This combination of geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and anticipated monetary easing has propelled gold prices to historic highs, with forecasts suggesting further gains toward $3,500 per ounce.
--
Best #GODL wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
XAUUSD Channel Up intact and targeting the 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 30 2024 High and is currently on its latest technical Bearish Leg. The last pull-back tested the 1D MA50 (blue tend-line) before rebounding again.
As you can see the Low that this pull-back made was also on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. On the current Bearish Leg, the 0.618 Fib is at 3155 and can make contact with the 1D MA50 within 1 week. That is our short-term Target, but depending on the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, it may be achieved earlier.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 05 - May 09]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD has dropped sharply from 3,352 USD/oz to 3,201 USD/oz and closed the week at 3,240 USD/oz.
The reason for the sharp drop in gold prices is that US President Donald Trump said that the US is about to reach a trade agreement with India, Japan, South Korea, and is likely to reach a trade agreement with China, although the two sides have not had any official negotiations.
In addition, an equally important factor is that China is on holiday from May 1 to May 5, so the demand for transactions in the world's largest gold consuming country is almost non-existent. While they have been continuously buying before even though the gold price was high.
The FED meeting on May 6-7 may have a strong impact on gold prices next week. US GDP in the first quarter grew by -0.3%, while the labor market still has potential tariff risks; inflation remains stable at a high level. With these data, it is likely that the FED will maintain interest rates at current levels, but may signal that a rate cut is coming soon. According to many experts, if the FED signals that it will cut interest rates after the meeting next week, it will push gold prices to recover next week. On the contrary, if the FED maintains a wait-and-see attitude, declaring that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, then gold prices next week may continue to adjust.
🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES THIS WEEK:
Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with an interest rate decision and a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell following keynote remarks earlier in April.
Fed officials will then continue their participation in the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland on Friday. Fed Governors Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson and Christopher Waller will be present at the conference as speakers in panels on topics including artificial intelligence, employment and monetary policy research.
In addition, investors will also watch the ISM services PMI on Monday morning and the weekly jobless claims number on Thursday.
📌Technically, if gold prices fall below $3,200/oz next week, there is a possibility of a further decline to $3,129/oz. A deeper correction could see gold prices fall to $2,980-$3,000/oz next week. If gold prices reverse and break the $3,270/oz barrier, they could continue to rise above $3,350/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,228 – 3,163USD
Resistance: 3,245 – 3,267 – 3,292 – 3,300USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3311 - 3309⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3315
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3119 - 3121⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3115
GOLD recovers to initial target, confirmation point continuesOANDA:XAUUSD surged in the first half of trading on Monday (May 5), briefly surpassing the $3,270/ounce mark and marking a daily gain of more than $30. as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs spurred safe-haven flows, supporting gold prices. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is also boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, which is not a huge deal, but it does escalate the trade war. "I am authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin proceedings to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films imported into the United States," Trump wrote on his Truth Social social media platform. "We want our movies made in the USA again!"
Gold prices have risen nearly 25% this year, hitting a record high above $3,500 an ounce in April, but have retreated in recent weeks. Bloomberg notes that factors driving gold’s recent rally include safe-haven buying fueled by Trump’s destructive trade and geopolitical policies, as well as speculative demand from China and buying by global central banks.
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" on May 5: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.2%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 63.3%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 35.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 1.1%.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still bullish as the price action remains above the important support EMA21. At the same time, the price channel that is noted as the main long-term trend channel remains stable.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing signs of weakness as it falls to approach the 50 level, which is noted as the closest support in terms of momentum.
Going forward, if gold rebounds above $3,245, it could rebound to the short-term target of $3,267, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, and then the full price point of $3,300.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, its long-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of a deeper correction is when the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below, once this level is broken below gold is at risk of further selling to $3,163 in the short term. This also means that technically gold is in an ideal support area for bullish expectations, long positions should be protected below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
In the coming period, gold has technical conditions that favor a bullish recovery, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,245 – 3,228USD
Resistance: 3,267 – 3,270 – 3,292USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3302⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3310
→Take Profit 1 3296
↨
→Take Profit 2 3290
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3173 - 3175⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3169
→Take Profit 1 3181
↨
→Take Profit 2 3187
BUYS For the Markets. Wait for BUYS in Gold and Silver.In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 5 - 9th.
The Indices are moving higher, and it's buys until they are not. Simple.
Gold is near potential support at 3201. This may present a great buying opportunity once the lows are swept. A weakened USD will help this cause.
Silver has made a bearish market structure shift (MSS), so buys are not yet on the table. If it disrespects a Daily -FVG, then sells are warranted. It is considerably weaker than Gold.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Easing market risks put pressure on GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD fell to a two-week low on Thursday (May 1), mainly due to signs of easing trade tensions and a long holiday in China, the world's largest gold consumer. Investors will be looking ahead to the US non-farm payrolls report due today (Friday), which is expected to cause major market movements.
Easing trade tensions between the US and other countries have kept investors optimistic throughout the week. In addition, easing US-China trade tensions have also added to the pressure on gold as there are no additional risks to stimulate safe-haven demand.
US President Donald Trump has decided to exempt some tariffs on the auto industry and made progress on deals with India, South Korea and Japan. On Wednesday local time, Trump said there was a great chance of reaching a trade deal with China and that there were "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, and that he was working to reach agreements with the three countries.
The Trump administration hopes to reach preliminary trade agreements with several trading partners within weeks, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Wednesday. U.S. Commerce Secretary Mattis Lutnick said at least one trade deal is close to being announced, several others are close to being finalized, and Trump may be waiting for an opportunity to announce them all at once.
Data released on Wednesday showed the US economy contracted in the first quarter and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was flat in March, turning investors' attention to the non-farm payrolls report due out today (Friday). The US non-farm payrolls report for April will be released on May 2 (8:30 a.m. ET). Expectations for the non-farm report are that traders and economists expect the report to show 133,000 new jobs in the US, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month (up 3.9% year-on-year), and the U3 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Fed policymakers said they would keep interest rates on hold until there are clear signs that inflation is falling toward the 2% target or there is a possibility that the job market is deteriorating.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold remains in the best position for bullish expectations with support from the EMA21 and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also reacting to the 50 level, which is considered the closest support in terms of momentum.
In the short term, if gold returns to trade above $3,270, it will be considered the best condition for a bullish recovery to end the broad-based correction.
However, if gold is sold below $3,228 and maintains its price action below this level, it will likely continue to decline with a subsequent target of around $3,163 in the short term.
In the day, considering the current position, gold still has conditions for a bullish outlook technically and the notable price levels will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,228 – $3,163
Resistance: $3,267 – $3,270
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3268⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3275
→Take Profit 1 3262
↨
→Take Profit 2 3256
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3174 - 3176⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3170
→Take Profit 1 3182
↨
→Take Profit 2 3188
GOLD may enter accumulation when the market lacks impact Spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices were broadly steady in Asian trade on Friday (April 25) after a sharp rise in the previous trading day. The current price of gold is around $3,341/ounce, down from the $3,371 price target that readers noted in yesterday's edition. Spot gold prices jumped on Thursday, snapping a nearly 3% decline the previous day, helped by a weaker US dollar and bargain-hunting as investors kept a close eye on the latest news on tariff negotiations.
Market Highlights
Gold prices rebounded on Thursday after their biggest drop this year as bargain hunters entered the market, Bloomberg reported.
China's official broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday that the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a plan to impose tiered tariffs on China, and White House press secretary Levitt said Trump's stance on tariffs on China "has not softened."
"This is all fake news. As far as I know, China and the United States have never consulted or negotiated on tariffs, let alone reached an agreement. This tariff war was initiated by the United States, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: if you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to negotiate, the door is open. Dialogue and negotiation must be equal, respectful and mutually beneficial," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack made it clear in an interview on Thursday that the Fed has essentially ruled out a rate cut in May. But she also delivered a key message, saying that if there is clear evidence of the economy’s direction, there will be room for policy action in June.
When asked if a rate cut was possible in June, Hammack said: “If we get clear and compelling data in June, then I think the committee will act, assuming we have a clear understanding of the right path for policy at that point.” Markets reacted quickly after Hammack’s remarks, with interest rate swaps indicating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June rising to around 65%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After achieving the target increase twice, which readers should pay attention to in the previous day's publication at 3,371 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236%, the recovery momentum of gold is being controlled and limited.
In the short term, gold is likely to enter a sideways accumulation phase, waiting for more fundamental breakthroughs. The expected accumulation area is around 3,371 - 3,292 USD, which are the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, with the current position, the main outlook is still bullish in the long term with the trend from the price channel as the main trend and support from the EMA21 as the main support.
During the day, the expectation of short-term accumulation in the main uptrend will be noted by the following levels.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3411 - 3409⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3415
→Take Profit 1 3403
↨
→Take Profit 2 3397
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3204 - 3206⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3200
→Take Profit 1 3212
↨
→Take Profit 2 3218
GOLD drops sharply to $43, important support areaOANDA:XAUUSD encountered a sudden sell-off in early Asian trading on Thursday (May 1). The current price of gold is around $3,245/ounce, down sharply by $43 on the day and at a key technical position.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell for a third consecutive day as signs that trade talks between the United States and China may be progressing reduced demand for safe-haven assets, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. China Central Television said the United States has been in touch with China through various channels.
Bloomberg noted that concerns about the global trade outlook were also eased by news that the Trump administration was close to announcing the first of a series of deals that would reduce planned tariffs on several countries.
OANDA:XAUUSD have risen about 25% this year, largely as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset as U.S. President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting trade policies have roiled markets and stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.
However, inflows into gold ETFs, central bank buying and strong speculative demand from China will also provide fundamental support for gold prices.
Looking ahead, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report could reveal the initial impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is trading at a crucial support area for long-term bullish expectations with support from Ema21 converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. If gold is sold below $3,228, it could continue to decline further with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also approaching the 50 level after a period of correction, which in this case acts as the nearest support.
It can be said that with the current position, gold has the most support with EMA21 converging with Fibonacci retracement 0.50% in terms of trend, and RSI approaching 50 is support in terms of momentum.
During the day, the current position still shows that gold has the potential to increase in price and the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,245 - 3,228 USD
Resistance: 3,267 - 3,292 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3295 - 3293⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3299
→Take Profit 1 3287
↨
→Take Profit 2 3281
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3195 - 3197⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3191
→Take Profit 1 3203
↨
→Take Profit 2 3209
GOLD trades around $3,300, market lacks major impactOANDA:XAUUSD sare trading lower around the $3,300/oz flatline as easing US-China trade tensions dampen the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, while investors await US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
OANDA:XAUUSD have been trading in a narrow range recently as the market awaits details of the first trade deal, which is expected to be announced this week or next.
OANDA:XAUUSD has reversed to a downside correction since last week as Trump made some very positive comments and the risk of stagflation was further ruled out, and gold prices continued to fall. Stagflation has pushed gold higher and as the market starts to price in this risk, a correction is natural, especially considering that “buying gold” has become the top trade and it is technically in overbought territory.
Looking at the larger picture, gold prices remain in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing. But in the short term, more positive news on tariffs could see gold prices continue to fall as the market adjusts to the new conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD , traditionally seen as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 last week amid heightened uncertainty.
Investors will be watching economic data for the rest of the week, including Wednesday's personal consumption expenditure report and Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
Technical Outlook OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to move sideways as the accumulation state takes place as the market has no fundamental impact of any sudden change. With the current position, gold is not qualified to increase or decrease significantly with the sideway area of attention in the range of 3,371 - 3,292 USD being the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, overall, gold is still inclined to increase in the long term with the price channel as the main trend and support from EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains above/within the price channel, above EMA21, it still has the technical conditions for the main trend to be up, the declines should only be considered as short-term corrections and not an official trend.
During the day, the sideways accumulation state with the main uptrend will be noticed again by the following positions.
Support: 3,292 – 3,267 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3382 - 3380⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3386
→Take Profit 1 3374
↨
→Take Profit 2 3368
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3285⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3279
→Take Profit 1 3291
↨
→Take Profit 2 3297
XAUUSD: Bearish towards the previous High.Gold is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.142, MACD = 87.300, ADX = 39.603) but has found itself on a short term correction since last week's High. All prior short term pullbacks have tested the High that preceded them. This gives a clear bearish TP = 3,175. It is possible for the market to also make contact with the 1D MA50 there, which has been intact as a Support since January 7th.
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GOLD accumulate as the market lacks major fundamental impactSpot OANDA:XAUUSD moved significantly in early morning trading on Tuesday (April 29) and is currently trading at $3,315/oz, down 0.87% on the day at the time of writing.
OANDA:XAUUSD reversed losses on Monday and rebounded, having earlier dipped to around $3,268. The US Dollar (Dxy) fell broadly on Monday, supporting gold as investors cautiously awaited more news on US trade policy and braced for a week of in-depth economic data that could provide early indications of whether US President Trump’s trade war is having an impact.
The U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY fell 0.7% on Monday to close at 98.91, its lowest close in four trading days. The DXY has fallen 4.89% in April and is set to post its biggest monthly decline since July last year as Trump has shaken confidence in the reliability of U.S. assets.
A majority of economists polled by Reuters see a high risk of a global recession this year, with many saying that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have hurt business confidence. Bessant said on Monday that major U.S. trading partners have made “very good” proposals to avoid U.S. tariffs and one of the first deals to be signed would likely be with India.
Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have said they are ready to cut rates if risks to economic growth become clear. But most officials appear to want to determine the impact of Trump’s tariffs on real economic indicators like inflation and employment before taking action.
This week, the US will also release first-quarter GDP data and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, while Europe will also release preliminary GDP and inflation data.
Investors are also awaiting the US April jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show that employment is still growing, albeit at a much slower pace than a month ago.
Investors will also pay attention to the US JOLT jobs data for March and the second round of US-Japan tariff talks, due out today.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to move sideways as there is no fundamental impact big enough to break the structure to create a short-term trend. But in terms of position, gold is currently likely to decline as the RSI is pointing down quite far from 50, 50 in this case acts as the nearest target support indicating that there is still room for downside ahead in the short term.
However, in the overall picture, gold is still trending up mainly due to supporting factors such as the trending price channel as the main trend, the main support from EMA21 and as long as gold is above EMA21, in/above the price channel, it is still in the main uptrend, the declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity.
During the day, gold is expected to accumulate with the main uptrend, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,292 – 3,267 – 3,245 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3382 - 3380⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3386
→Take Profit 1 3374
↨
→Take Profit 2 3368
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3287 - 3289⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3283
→Take Profit 1 3295
↨
→Take Profit 2 3301
GOLD falls more than 40 Dollars, widening correction rangeSpot OANDA:XAUUSD unexpectedly accelerated its decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 28). The current price of gold is around 3,280 USD/ounce, down more than 40 USD on the day. The price of gold has gradually decreased compared to the intraday high of 3,336.98 USD/ounce reached at the beginning of the trading session.
The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States has weakened gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Gold prices have fallen more than 5% since breaking above $3,500 an ounce last Wednesday.
The latest developments around US-China trade relations and the release of key US macroeconomic data will trigger gold’s near-term price action. Market participants will be closely watching US economic growth and employment data this week.
The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge fund managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options to a 14-month low.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below the raw price of $3,300 and at its current position it could continue to decline further with a short-term target of around $3,245 where the price confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
Although gold has fallen significantly from $3,500, looking at the overall chart, gold still has bullish conditions with support from EMA21 and the rising price channel as the long-term trend. On the other hand, the down trending RSI is also approaching the 50 level, in this case the 50 level is the closest support at present, indicating that there may not be much room for decline in the short term.
Once gold is back in action above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be in position to rebound with a target of around $3,371 in the short term.
During the day, the bearish correction could continue but will be limited by the EMA21 and the price channel. Along with that, the bearish correction along with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical positions.
Support: $3,245 – $3,228 – $3,200
Resistance: $3,292 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3328 - 3326⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3332
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3314
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3228⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3222
→Take Profit 1 3234
↨
→Take Profit 2 3240