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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD ends 3 consecutive days of increase, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Thursday (May 22), ending a three-day winning streak and continued to decline slightly in early Asian trading today (May 23), mainly due to a recovery in the US dollar and profit-taking by investors after gold prices hit a two-week high. However, the outlook for gold prices remains positive due to geopolitical conflicts. Sources revealed that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between Iran and the United States fail. Readers can review these specific news in previous editions or regular short updates. Data released by S&P Global on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, beating expectations of 50.1. The preliminary U.S. services PMI rose to 52.3 in May, compared to both the previous and expected readings of 50.8. Initial jobless claims in the United States were 227,000 in the week ending May 17, down from 229,000 in the previous week and below expectations of 230,000, suggesting the labor market remains solid. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform proposal on Thursday. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the proposal would increase US debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade to $36.2 trillion. Gold is often seen as a store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold fell yesterday, its current position still has enough conditions to increase towards the target at $3,371, which is the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. The nearest support to watch is the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and even if gold falls short-term below this confluence, it can still increase with the following supports at $3,250, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. The relative strength index (RSI) remains above 50, which is a positive signal for the bullish momentum. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is tilted to the upside and the points to watch are listed as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3274 - 3276⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3270 →Take Profit 1 3282 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3288
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD How VIX points to a Gold Bear Cycle.Gold (XAUUSD) may be on a 5-week correction but on the long-term it remains within a Channel Up since the October 31 2022 Low. That was essentially when its Bear Cycle ended and the new Bull Cycle (Channel Up) started. The previous Bull Cycle stopped 4.5 months after the Volatility Index (VIX) shown in blue, peaked during the March 2020 COVID flash crash. We are now on a similar situation as VIX topped on the week of March 31 2025 during the Trade War and has already started to decline aggressively. In symmetrical terms, we could be around the end of May 2020 on Gold's last short-term pull-back before the final rally to the August 03 2020 Top (where its Bear Cycle started). As a result, according to this correlation, we may see Gold forming a Bull Cycle Top by the end of July (2025) and then start a new +2 year Bear Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
Weak USD and renewed safe-haven demand support GOLD surgeOANDA:XAUUSD surged to a one-week high. A weak US dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty boosted gold prices. Gold prices rose and held above $3,300 an ounce as traders grew increasingly concerned about the US tax reform vote and escalating tensions in the Middle East. In addition, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the depreciation of the US dollar also boosted safe-haven demand for gold. CNN reported Tuesday, citing multiple sources, that the latest intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, even as negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over the country's uranium enrichment program continue. Axios, a prominent U.S. news website, reported Wednesday local time that two Israeli sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Axios that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if negotiations between the United States and Iran fall apart. Israeli intelligence has shifted in recent days from believing a nuclear deal was imminent to believing that talks could soon collapse, sources said. Gold, considered a safe investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce last month. US stocks plunged on Wednesday and US Treasury yields jumped as investors focused on congressional debate over President Trump’s proposed tax reform, raising concerns that the country’s massive debt will continue to rise. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold broke the technical confluence of the 21-day moving average (EMA21) with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, it has qualified for further upside to the next target expected at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Looking ahead, in the short term, gold has qualified for a new bullish cycle with the nearest support at the raw price point of $3,300 followed by $3,292. A bullish breakout of $3,371 would open the door to a new target at the raw price point of $3,400 in the short term, followed by $3,435. As noted to readers throughout the publications since the beginning of the year, the trend of gold prices is fixed by the rising price channel, corrections can still take place negatively but the trend has not changed. "In fact, I have also encountered many failures when the market fluctuated too much recently, causing me to not believe in the rising price structure at times." Trading is not just about fundamentals or technicals, it depends more on trading psychology. With the current market, experienced traders will still often encounter psychological problems, such as me, who is writing this article to you. Finally, the short-term uptrend of gold prices in the main uptrend will be noted by the following notable levels. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,435 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3265 - 3267⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3261 →Take Profit 1 3273 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3279
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD Regains Above 3'300, since US stocks "Relief Rally" is OverGold prices recently surged above $3,300 per ounce due to a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and monetary factors driving strong safe-haven demand: Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and ongoing US-China trade disputes, have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek Gold as a secure store of value amid instability. The US dollar's weakness, nearing a three-year low, has further boosted gold's appeal for holders of other currencies, making Gold relatively cheaper and more attractive globally. What is most important also, U.S. stock rally has overed recently its tedious 10-Day winning strike (fortunately which finished not at all the history peaks). That's why investors may be turning back to tried-and-true assets like Gold. Central banks, notably China’s, have been consistently buying gold to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, supporting prices significantly. China increased its Gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month, signaling sustained institutional demand. Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record inflows, reflecting growing investor interest beyond traditional buyers. Market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in 2025 have also played a key role. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its investment appeal amid inflation concerns and economic growth uncertainties. This combination of geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and anticipated monetary easing has propelled gold prices to historic highs, with forecasts suggesting further gains toward $3,500 per ounce. -- Best #GODL wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch
Gold Update: 2 optionsIndeed, the top metal surged well beyond $3,000, as I mentioned in my earlier post (see related post for details). The price reached a new all-time high of $3,510 before pulling back, as expected. So far, the retracement has been rejected at the trendline support around $3,123 (futures). From here, there are two possible scenarios: 1) Blue Labels The price may have already completed wave 4. If so, we could now see a large wave 5 move to the upside. This wave could reach the blue target box, which represents 61.8% to 100% of the distance from wave 1 to wave 3, added to the bottom of wave 4. This target zone lies between $3,700 and $4,100. Keep in mind that gold is a commodity, and commodities often have extended fifth waves — so the higher end of the blue box is still possible. 2) White Labels Typically, fourth waves retrace down to the valleys of previous lower-degree fourth waves. In this case, the market could form another leg down to complete a larger, more complex correction, potentially hitting $2,975 before wave 5 begins. If that happens, the target for wave 5 may be lower, but with a possible extended fifth wave, it could still reach the blue box area.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by aibek
XAUUSD: Channel Down top with Death Cross. Best sell enty.Gold marginally turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.472, MACD = 17.780, ADX = 34.620) as the price has been rising since last Thursday. Technically however, it is on the most efficient sell entry as it is just under the LH top of the 1 month Channel Down. The big difference now is that it formed a 4H Death Cross and last time we had one inside a Channel Down was almost 1 year ago (June 3rd 2024) and set in motion one last bearish wave to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We are therefore short with TP = 3,050. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
1
Gold Futures Analysis: Trade Plan COMEX:GC1! Gold remains in a strong uptrend on the higher time frames, having recently broken above the $3000 level. This move sets the stage for further upside potential. The chart below highlights a Megaphone chart pattern, signaling volatility and broad price swings. On the 4-hour chart, a pennant pattern is emerging within the uptrend, marked by a downtrend line from the recent highs. Additionally, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, with a decisive breakout higher towards the 2025 CVAH. This level coincides with a high-volume node (HVN) and the edge of the value area distribution for 2025, suggesting it’s a key point of interest. Some consolidation is expected here before we either continue higher or see a rejection that could pull price back toward the uptrend line. Scenario 1: Continuation Higher, Capped by 3400 Level In this scenario, we anticipate further consolidation within the pennant on the 4-hour timeframe. After a brief pause, gold could continue higher, testing the 3400 resistance level. If momentum remains strong, we expect to see price consolidate within the pennant pattern to build energy for the next leg higher. Scenario 2: Rejection at CVAH In this scenario, gold struggles to sustain the move higher after breaking out from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A failure to maintain the rally above the CVAH could lead to a rejection, followed by a retracement within the pennant structure. This would likely set up further consolidation towards the 3200 level before the next move up, possibly testing the uptrend line for support. Our thoughts: Gold is currently navigating an important juncture, with key levels at 2025 CVAH, 3400 and 3200 in focus. The near-term direction will depend on how price behaves within the pennant, as well as how it reacts to potential resistance or support levels. Traders should stay alert for volatility, as the consolidation phase could resolve in either a continuation of the uptrend or a pullback towards the trendline. Flight to safety, rising yields and geopolitical tensions will play a key role in shaping sentiment and trend in the Gold market.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD spikes on geopolitics, not enough for new bull runIn the early trading session this morning (May 21), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly skyrocketed in the short term, surpassing the $3,300/ounce mark for the first time since May 9. In addition, the price of WTI crude oil also skyrocketed, at one point increasing by 3%. US media reported that US intelligence agencies had detected that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. After the price increase on the previous trading day, the gold price continued to skyrocket to $3,304.18/ounce in the early trading session on Wednesday in Asia. Because gold is considered a safe asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, new signs of geopolitical instability once again supported the increase in gold prices. CNN reported Tuesday local time that several US officials told CNN that new information obtained by the US shows that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities even as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic deal with Tehran. Such an attack would be a clear break with President Donald Trump, U.S. officials said. It could also spark a broader conflict in the Middle East, something the United States has tried to avoid since the 2023 Gaza war ratcheted up tensions. The growing concern stems not only from messages from senior Israeli officials, both public and private, that Israel is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military activity that could indicate an Israeli strike is imminent, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said. Geopolitical factors also played a role in pushing gold higher, as the failure to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East could prompt investors to hold onto gold. The dollar weakened on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded the United States' top triple-A credit rating. Fed officials were also cautious about the economic outlook, hurt by the downgrade. A weaker US dollar means gold becomes more attractive. Analysis of the technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold surged to a technical confluence of key resistance formed by the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and the 21-day EMA. At this point, gold has not completely broken out of the price action around the $3,300 base point. If gold breaks above and sustains above the $3,300 base point, it will be in a position to continue to rise with a target of around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement would open the door for a retest of the $3,250 technical level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the active position is not yet in line for a new bullish cycle. Therefore, the technical outlook for gold for the day is a retest of $3,250 in the short term, followed by $3,228. The notable positions for intraday downside correction expectations are listed below. Support: $3,250 – $3,228 Resistance: $3,331 – $3,345 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3356 - 3354⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3360 →Take Profit 1 3348 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3342 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3272⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3266 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3284
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Positive market, GOLD drops to 3,220 USD in short termOANDA:XAUUSD fell to $3,220/oz, down 0.61% on the day at press time, resuming a bearish trend and cooling demand for safe-haven assets. US President Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Trump saying Russia wants to reach a major trade deal with the United States and will immediately begin ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, central bank officials remained on the sidelines, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the summer very low. Trump said Russia wants to make a “big” trade deal with the United States. Trump posted on his Truth Social account that he spoke with Putin on Monday to discuss the deal. “I just had a two hour phone call with Putin and I think it went very well.” Trump said he discussed a number of issues with Putin, primarily the ceasefire agreement between Putin and Ukraine. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations to achieve a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war,” Trump wrote. “Both sides will negotiate the terms of this agreement, which is only possible because they have details of the negotiations that others do not. The tone and atmosphere of the talks were very good.” After announcing the ceasefire, Trump also wrote that Putin was looking for a trade deal with the United States. “Russia wants to engage in massive trade with the United States after this disastrous ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. Russia has a tremendous opportunity to create many jobs and wealth. The potential is limitless.” Trump also said that Ukraine could also benefit from a potential trade deal with the United States. He even added that the Vatican, represented by the new pope, would be willing to hold trade/ceasefire talks. Recent cooperative initiatives between Putin and Trump, including the US President receiving a painting from Putin, have raised questions about how the US-Russia axis will affect trade dynamics between the two countries. The two countries have maintained active communication since Trump took office in January. Given the current global tensions, a new US-Russia trade deal would be a significant step forward. Trump discussed peace in Ukraine with Putin on Monday after the US said it may have to pull out of a stalemate over ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Looking ahead, markets are focused on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with traders now betting that the chances of a rate cut in the summer are extremely low. The more positive news the market gets, the more pressure gold will face as cooling safe-haven demand will send investors looking for riskier assets. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in previous publications since gold was sold below EMA21, up to now, it still has a short-term technical trend leaning towards the downside. Specifically, gold has repeatedly failed to overcome the resistance level of 3,250 USD and has decreased in price every time it approaches this level. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for momentum to decline ahead. For gold to be in a position to enter a new bullish cycle, the most important condition is that it needs to break above the $3,300 base level then target around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, once gold breaks below the $3,200 support point it could continue to decline with the target then around the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement in the short term. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3224⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3230 →Take Profit 1 3218 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3212 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3150 - 3152⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3146 →Take Profit 1 3158 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3164
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD Targeting the 1D MA100.When we looked at Gold (XAUUSD) on May 05 (see chart below), we called for a strong sell on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and a 3155 Target: Now that this target was hit and the 1D MA50 broke, we expect a short-term bearish continuation, as the last 3 times the price broke below the 1D MA50, it always hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Still, all candles since the test closed above the 1D MA50 so we need to seek a confirmation of the bearish continuation and that is the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). If rejected there, expect an instant drop. If not, the last Resistance is the top of the Channel Down. In both cases, our short-term Target is 3060. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
GOLD surges 1.5% then falls, US credit rating downgradedOANDA:XAUUSD have recovered from their biggest weekly decline in six months, as growing concerns about the US economic outlook and budget deficit boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,249.80 an ounce in early Asian trading before paring losses, up about 0.55% on the day at press time. Moody's Ratings announced late Friday that it had removed the U.S. government's top credit rating, downgrading the country from Aaa to Aa1. Moody's blamed successive U.S. presidents and lawmakers for the growing budget deficit, although Moody's said the situation showed little sign of improving. "While we recognize that the United States has significant economic and fiscal strength, we believe that these strengths are no longer sufficient to fully offset the deterioration in fiscal metrics," Moody's said in a statement. This “black swan” event has raised concerns about the US financial situation. Safe-haven buying has fueled a sharp rise in gold prices. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has also benefited the gold price trend. This downgrade is likely to add to Wall Street’s growing concerns about the US government bond market. While rising yields typically boost their respective currencies, debt concerns could increase skepticism about the USD. Gold prices have been volatile in recent months. Last week, gold posted its biggest weekly decline since November as geopolitical tensions eased. The move followed a sharp rally in gold, which topped $3,500 an ounce for the first time last month. Gold is still up more than 20% this year, driven by global conflicts, tariffs from US President Donald Trump and flows into exchange-traded funds. Technical outlook OANDA:XAUUSD After gold reached the target resistance of 3,250 USD, it weakened slightly again, this resistance level is noted by readers in the weekly publication. In the short term, gold still has a bearish outlook with the nearest resistance at 3,250 USD followed by the confluence of EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.382%. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, 50 is now acting as resistance while the RSI is still quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline in momentum ahead. As long as gold remains below the 21 EMA, it remains bearish in the short term and a break below $3,200 would continue to push gold lower with a target of around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to qualify for the upside, it needs to move above the 21 EMA, break the $3,300 base point and then target around $3,371 in the short term. Intraday, the bearish outlook for gold in the short term will be highlighted again by the following levels. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3261 - 3259⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3265 →Take Profit 1 3253 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3247 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3199 - 3201⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3195 →Take Profit 1 3207 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3213
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Buyers Stand By And Be Ready! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 18 - 24th. The Stock Indices remain bullish. So buys are warranted for next week. Gold and Silver pulled back last week on news of Trump's deals and sanction relief. But Gold is at support now. Watch for bullish setups for buys or a bearish market structure shift before seeking sells. Crude Oil is near buy side liquidity. Look for short term buys before a longer term, high probability sell setup to form. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 19 - May 23]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, falling from $3,292/oz to $3,120/oz and then recovering to $3,202/oz. The main reason was that the US and China reached a trade agreement, according to which the two sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs from May 14, creating positive sentiment for the market. This week’s gold sell-off was the steepest since mid-June 2021, even steeper than the drop after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. President Trump said there are currently about 150 partners who want to negotiate trade with the US, but the US cannot handle them all at once. In the next 2-3 weeks, the US will announce the export tax rates that partners will have to pay when selling to the US market. The Trump administration will impose specific tariffs on partners that have not yet negotiated with the US, at what level, has not been specifically announced. If the new tariffs remain as high as the initial list of reciprocal tariffs, there is a risk that many partners will retaliate, making the tariff war hotter, pushing gold prices up sharply. On the contrary, if the new tariffs are much lower than the initially announced tariffs, gold prices may only increase moderately, then continue to adjust. After the recent sharp sell-off, profit-taking sentiment is still dominating the market. However, safe-haven demand remains strong due to geopolitical tensions that have not yet ended and concerns about a global economic recession. 📌The gold price trend next week is likely to fluctuate in the range of 3,055 - 3,270 USD/ounce, with a slight decrease scenario being preferred due to profit-taking pressure and the potential recovery of the USD. However, if there is a positive signal from the Fed policy or increased geopolitical instability, the gold price may recover to the range of 3,260 - 3,270 USD/ounce. Investors need to closely monitor economic data and geopolitical fluctuations to make appropriate decisions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,162 – 3,100 USD Resistance: 3,228 – 3,250 – 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3271 - 3269⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3275 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3054 - 3056⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3050
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls to support $3,200, recovery momentum weakensOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded sharply on Thursday's trading day and weakened rapidly in the first half of the Asian trading session today, Friday (May 16). Gold is currently trading at $3,210/oz, equivalent to a decrease of $30 on the day, down about 0.93% as of the time of writing. OANDA:XAUUSD accelerated their recovery on Thursday as weak US economic data fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weighed on the US dollar. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey also prompted some safe-haven buying. Information surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks is brought to readers through brief comments during the day. Data released on Thursday showed that the US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in April and retail sales growth slowed significantly, while the consumer price index (CPI) for April released earlier in the week rose less than expected. The data showed that the US PPI unexpectedly fell 0.5% month-over-month in April, while the market expected a growth of 0.2%; the core PPI fell 0.4%, also below the expected growth of 0.3%. Meanwhile, US retail sales increased slightly by 0.1% month-over-month in April, slowing significantly from March's 1.7%. Thursday’s data provided more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and market expectations to become more dovish. Gold itself does not generate interest rates, and when rates fall, it increases the appeal of gold. However, the impact from the data was not sustainable enough to generate a stronger rally, while new developments around the Russia-Ukraine talks are showing a positive trend. Gold is not benefiting from a risk-off environment. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart in the short term, gold is still in a position to decline in the short term with pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest resistance. Meanwhile, in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing signs of folding as it retests the 50 level, which is noted as the closest resistance in terms of momentum to the current position of the RSI. For now, the downside is also limited by the $3,200 base level, which is currently the nearest support and once it is broken below, gold is likely to continue its decline with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, rather than $3,120. For the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with the current positions listed below. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3286 - 3284⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3272 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3159 - 3161⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3155 →Take Profit 1 3167 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3173
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GC - Gold digging for a possible ShortAfter reaching WL2, we saw a sharp pullback followed by an immediate double top. Price failed to reach the centerline of the yellow fork, instead stalling at the 1/4 line. Then came the break of the lower median line (L-MLH), a pullback to the white WL1—then the drop began. If this market can’t push to new highs, we’ll likely fall back into the median line set. A pullback to the upper median line (U-MLH), as indicated by the red arrows, is a probable scenario. Next stop: the white centerline. I trade tiny. I trade with extremely high risk-reward setups. I’m fine getting stopped out all the time —because I’m hunting huge moves. I don’t chase. No FOMO. It’s how I sleep well, make money from trading and keep my stress level very low.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
GOLD is supported short, trend is bearishThe bargain-hunting wave has supported OANDA:XAUUSD in the short term. In addition, weaker-than-expected US CPI in April, cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut, a fall in the US Dollar Index from a one-month high, and geopolitical concerns have all provided bullish momentum for gold. Spot gold was trading in a narrow range in early trading on Wednesday (May 14), currently trading around $3,245/ounce. Inflation data Data from the US Labor Department, a key indicator of Federal Reserve policy, released on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose just 0.2% month-on-month in April, below the expected 0.3%. This mild inflation report is like a tonic, injecting new life into gold prices. This data will not hinder the Fed's interest rate cut, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in September. It is worth noting that while inflationary pressures are not high now, inflation could pick up again in the coming months as the impact of tariffs becomes clear. Such expectations are prompting many investors to turn to gold as an inflation hedge. On the same day on Tuesday, Do Nam Trung once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying that the prices of gasoline, groceries and “almost everything else” are falling. Geopolitics: “Safe Haven Fire” In addition to economic factors, continued tensions in the global geopolitical situation also provide strong support for gold. The possible face-to-face talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin are fraught with uncertainty, and despite a temporary ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict, the underlying tensions between the two sides have not changed. These uncertainties mean that gold still has the potential to rise in price once market risks suddenly occur. Looking Ahead: Gold’s Challenges Looking ahead, gold faces three key variables: • First, the further progress of the Sino-US trade talks. Although the two sides have reached a 90-day truce, the comprehensive tariff policy remains in effect. • Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. A soft performance in inflation data could pave the way for a rate cut. • Finally, global geopolitical risks, especially the developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the India-Pakistan conflict. There is relatively little economic data on the trading day. US Secretary of State Rubio will attend the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO security priorities, including increased defense spending and ending the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, which investors should pay attention to. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading in a narrow range with short-term conditions leaning towards the downside with the main pressure from the EMA21. However, the downside momentum is currently limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support. If gold is sold below $3,228, it will have the prospect of continuing to decline with the next target around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to resume its uptrend, the necessary condition is that the price action needs to be pushed above the EMA21 and break above the raw price level of 3,300 USD. Although the main trend from the price channel has not been broken yet, the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,228 – 3,200 – 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 – 3,292 – 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3284 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3288 →Take Profit 1 3276 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3370 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3165 - 3167⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3161 →Take Profit 1 3173 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3179
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
Markets turn their attention to US CPISafe-haven OANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 3% on Monday (May 12) and continued to decline slightly in early trading on Tuesday (May 13), mainly due to the easing of market risk sentiment after the United States and China announced a temporary “ceasefire” in their trade war. According to a joint statement released by the United States and China on Monday, the United States will reduce the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April this year from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce the tariffs imposed on American goods from 125% to 10%. The new measures will take effect in 90 days. Gold prices fell more than 3% on Monday as risk sentiment improved after the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs for 90 days during talks over the weekend. This sent the US dollar soaring to its highest level in more than a month and global stocks rebounding strongly after the US and China reached an interim tariff deal. Meanwhile, gold sold off sharply as market sentiment began to shift back to risk assets, making the yellow metal less attractive. China and the United States announced in Geneva, Switzerland, that they have reached an important economic and trade agreement. Both sides will also further reduce tariffs on each other's goods, with the total reduction exceeding 100%. The breakthrough marks a major turning point in the years-long tariff war between China and the United States. After implementing the measures, the two sides will establish a mechanism to continue negotiations on economic and trade relations, Xinhua News Agency reported. Investors' attention turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due out on Tuesday for a gauge of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Other key US data this week include the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales. Economists expect the US CPI to have risen by 2.4% year-on-year in April. Excluding volatile items, the core CPI growth rate is expected to have been unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year. While the underlying market is under pressure from positive factors from trade to geopolitics, we (individual investors in the short term) still need to pay special attention to the erratic behavior of Do Nam Trung. A status line that brings tariff risks will push gold to increase strongly again. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, a drop below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bullish signal for further downside with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is where the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level is located. In terms of momentum, gold is showing bearish signals as the RSI falls below 50 and the next target is the overbought zone, with the current RSI position, gold still has a lot of room to fall. The most important condition for gold to be able to be assessed to increase in price again is that it needs to bring the price activity above the base price of 3,300 USD, then the target could be 3,371 USD. Otherwise, with the current market position and context, the short-term downtrend is dominant. During the day, the possibility of a decline in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: 3,228 - 3,200 - 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 - 3,267 - 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3281⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3287 →Take Profit 1 3275 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3369 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3220 - 3222⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3216 →Take Profit 1 3228 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3234
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD first time to hit the 4H MA200 in a month.Gold (XAUUSD) hit its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) today for the first time since April 08. That was a Higher Low at the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone pattern and produced its Aril 22 All Time High (ATH). Since then, the market has been correcting under a Lower Highs trend-line, due to the de-escalation of the Trade War and today's 4H MA200 is so far a Double Bottom on a potential Descending Triangle. Its last Bullish Leg peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so we are now turning bullish targeting 3375 (current 0.786 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 12 - May 16]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,210 USD/oz to 3,434 USD/oz, but immediately after that, the gold price dropped sharply to 3,274 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,325 USD/oz. The reason why the gold price was sold off at the end of the week was because the FED said it would not rush to cut interest rates, because inflation is potentially at risk of increasing due to the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, while the US economy, especially the labor market, is also at risk of decline. This risks pushing the US economy into a state of stagflation. In addition, after the US and UK reached a trade agreement, the US side said that there will be more trade agreements with major economies in the near future. Notably, this weekend, the US and China also entered the first round of trade negotiations under President Trump in his second term in Switzerland. This has made many investors concerned that the cooling of the trade war will reduce the role of gold as a safe haven. Factors affecting gold prices next week: Federal Reserve (Fed) policy: The Fed currently keeps interest rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the market is waiting for new economic data (such as May CPI and employment report). If inflation continues to decline or there are signs that the Fed will cut interest rates in the near future, gold prices may be strongly supported. On the contrary, if the Fed maintains a "hawkish" stance (keeping interest rates high), gold prices may be under downward pressure. US-China trade negotiations: Optimism about the possibility of a trade agreement between the US and China (expected to be negotiated in Switzerland) is reducing the demand for safe haven gold. If there is positive news (forecast: tax reduction from 145% to 80%), gold prices may adjust down. On the contrary, if negotiations fail or tensions escalate, gold will increase sharply. Global instability: Geopolitical risks (such as Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine tensions, India-Pakistan tensions) are still the driving force supporting gold prices. If there are unexpected developments, gold demand will increase. 📌Technically, gold prices next week are likely to fluctuate within the range of 3,200 - 3,400 USD/ounce, with the base scenario being sideways or slightly increasing. If gold breaks the trendline and surpasses the resistance level of 3435, the next level is that gold can conquer the old peak or create a new high. Meanwhile, if the support level of 3200 is broken, gold prices are at risk of falling deeply below the threshold of 3,100 USD/oz. However, factors such as US economic data, Fed policy, and developments in US-China negotiations will be the key to determining the trend. Investors need to closely monitor these events and apply flexible trading strategies. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,267USD Resistance: 3,351 – 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3215 - 3217⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3211
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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