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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD → Retest of trend support before the NEWS FX:XAUUSD is forming a false breakdown of the lower boundary of consolidation and support of the uptrend within the correction. Traders are waiting for S&P Global PMI indices in the US. The gold price has rolled back from the record $2,955, but still retains chances for growth continuation. The decline is due to profit taking as traders prepare for the release of the S&P Global PMI indices in the US. The PMI data may affect the expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Nevertheless, a possible price drop on the back of strong PMI data could be short-lived if Trump's new tariff plans reignite demand for safe-haven assets. While gold may continue to correct, any drawdowns are likely to be seen as a near-term buying opportunity Resistance levels: 2933, 2939, 2946, 2955 Support levels: 2924, trend support A false breakdown of the uptrend support is forming. If the bulls hold their defenses above the key area, gold may continue its rise in the short to medium term. But, the short-term outlook depends on the news Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
3
GOLD's rise has been steady, limited by its all-time peakDuring the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy. Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates. The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales. If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase. CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish. The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction. To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD Resistance: 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 →Take Profit 1 2943 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2937 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD steadies at high levels despite FOMC looks toughDuring the early morning trading session on Thursday (February 20), spot gold prices suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices stabilized above 2,940 USD/ounce, approaching the historic high set in the previous trading day. Trump just issued another tariff threat On Wednesday evening local time, US President Trump reiterated that he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. “I will announce tariffs next month or sooner on autos, semiconductors, chips, pharmaceuticals, lumber and a number of other items that have a significant impact on the United States,” Trump said. On Tuesday, Trump said he intended to impose tariffs of "about 25%" on autos, along with similar tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Earlier this month, the United States announced a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, but the Fed meeting minutes sent gold prices down a bit Gold prices hit an all-time high in early trading on Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs rattled investors, but later retreated from record highs as the dollar strengthened following a tough Federal Reserve meeting minutes. "Participants said that, as long as the economy remains near maximum employment, they would like to see inflation progress further before making additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate," minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 28-29 meeting said. Assessment: The meeting minutes highlight the cautious approach of policymakers after they cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the final months of last year. Some officials have said they want to see inflation continue to fall toward the Fed's 2% target before supporting another rate cut. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting showed concerns about inflation risks, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Gold prices decreased after the Fed meeting minutes, but in general this is not a significant impact because the market is still accepting risks from President Trump. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold is up 0.30% on the day, temporarily in front of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension considered the nearest resistance. Once gold breaks above $2,946, it will likely continue to renew its all-time high with a target then around $2,971 in the short term. The intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,921USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,971USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 17 - Feb 21]OANDA:XAUUSD have leveled off after a series of record increases, ending the week below 2,900 USD/oz due to strong profit-taking activities. The main reason is that geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have eased, reducing the need for safe havens. President Donald Trump had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending hostilities in Ukraine and suspending tariffs until a review is completed in April 2025. Gold prices may continue to adjust in the short term, but in the long term, safe haven demand due to economic instability and trade war will push prices up. In addition, central banks stepped up gold purchases, with more than 1,000 tons in 2024 - much higher than the average level in the 2010-2021 period, contributing to supporting the rise of gold. China launched a pilot project allowing 10 insurance companies to invest up to 1% of assets in gold. It is forecast that these companies can buy up to 28 billion USD of gold (about 300 tons), accounting for 6.5% of annual physical gold demand, contributing to boosting the market. SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index (economic index measuring business conditions of the manufacturing industry in New York state, USA. This index is announced monthly by the US Federal Reserve (FED) New York branch, based on a survey of manufacturers in the region). Wednesday: US housing data (New homes and construction permits), FED meeting minutes. Thursday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Friday: S&P Flash PMI, US Existing Home Sales 📌Technically, on chart D1, after surpassing the peak at 2790, the gold price increased another 150 and tends to adjust again. Currently, the support level to pay attention to is around the dynamic resistance level as well as the hard resistance level at 2790, while the resistance level is set around 2942. Next week, if the gold price maintains the trading level above the 2800 threshold, it is expected that the momentum will increase to set a new record high price. In case the price declines and adjusts too deeply, there is a risk that the gold price will be subject to downward selling pressure. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,881 – 2,857USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2785
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD: 3,400 could be the top of this Cycle.Gold is overbought both on its 1W (RSI = 75.261, MACD = 100.240, ADX = 43.694) and 1M (RSI = 79.749) technical outlooks and has entered the final (and perhaps most aggressive) phase of the latest bullish wave. With the 27 year pattern being a Channel Up we can calculate the next high to be within the 3.0 and 3.5 Fibonacci extension levels. Last time the price crossed over the R1 level, it peaked just under the 3.5 Fib. This gives a final target (TP = 3,400) close to the end of 2025. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Targeting a new era peak, risks blanket the marketOANDA:XAUUSD hit another all-time high as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs increased market fears of a global trade war, boosting safe-haven demand. Trump's tariff policy and global market reaction Trump said on Wednesday that he would announce new tariffs on lumber, autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals "next month or sooner." Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. As trade risks increase, global central banks are likely to continue buying gold, which is one of the key supporting factors for gold prices. Ukraine situation and the possibility of gold correction in the short term Trump also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned that Ukraine must quickly reach a peace deal with Russia or lose the country. If a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, geopolitical tensions could temporarily ease in the short term, which could put pressure on gold prices. However, gold still has enough fundamental support and the long-term uptrend could continue. Fed policy and Swiss gold exports soar Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting released Wednesday showed that Trump's early economic policies have raised concerns about rising inflation. This reinforces the Fed's stance on maintaining the current interest rate policy. According to foreign media, Swiss customs data showed that Swiss gold exports increased significantly year-on-year in January, with gold exports to the United States reaching their highest level in at least 13 years. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached the target level of 2,946 USD, readers noted in the previous issue that the price point of the Fibonacci extension was 0.382%, it broke this level to renew its all-time high. With the current position, if gold takes price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level once again, it will have conditions to continue to increase with a target then around 2,971 USD in the short term, more than 2,996 – 3,000 USD. The relative strength index also does not indicate any possibility of a downward correction in terms of momentum. During the day, the short-term uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by trend, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it still has a main bullish outlook, declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity. Notable locations will also be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,954 – 2,971 – 2,996USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Gold - Looking Where to NextHi Everyone i hope your enjoying your weekend and have been catching some good trades recently. What a great year so far. My previous targets i posted all hit with 100% accuracy. The range levels were all respected and played out perfectly. Looking ahead to whats next for gold the range top of 2935 proved to be strong resistance with gold selling off twice from this level so there is a high probability we trace back at least for a mid range test before attempting to go higher again. We can also not rule out returning to the range bottom of 2775 but the reaction to each level will guide us better. Fundamentally and technically gold is still very strong and profit taking should not be mistaken for a huge correction just yet. I do see a dynamic supply zone running almost central to the main trend so we need to keep a eye on where price closes. Plan: Wait for body closes of candles Close and hold above 2894 to continue up. Retest and Reject 2894 to continue down.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by xstrizle
5
XAUUSD: Approaching the 3k top. Correction expected to 2,850.Gold has turned overbought again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.094, MACD = 56.680, ADX = 55.310), recovering last week's losses and ia marching towards a new ATH. Technically we expect it to approach the psychological level of 3k and once it gets as close to the HH trendline as possible, correct. The signal is given by the 3D RSI whose LH trendline has marked both Gold's highs in the past 12 months. The technical corrections aimed at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, so go short there and TP = 2,850. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by InvestingScope
GOLD rises above 2,900 USD again, attention to Trump and PutinOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased significantly due to factors such as a weaker US Dollar, geopolitical risks and uncertainty in US trade policy. As of the time this article was completed, spot gold increased to 2,909 USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.39% on the day. The World Gold Council revealed central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, central banks' gold purchases increased 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election. On Monday local time, at the suggestion of French President Macron, leaders of many European countries held an emergency meeting in the French capital Paris to discuss issues such as the situation in Ukraine and collective European security. According to French press reports, the biggest disagreement at the meeting that day was whether to send troops to Ukraine under the peacekeeping framework or not. British Prime Minister Starmer said the UK is ready to send ground troops if necessary. Germany and Spain objected. At the same time, Ukraine's peace negotiations also became the focus of market attention. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that he would travel to the Saudi capital Riyadh and hold talks with US representatives on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will soon meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia. If a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, this may be the driving force for gold to be able to adjust significantly down in the near future. On the contrary, if the agreement "goes nowhere", gold will continue to increase in price because geopolitical risks once again increase. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD From the support level of 2,881 USD, note to readers in the previous issue that gold has surpassed the initial target level at the original price point of 2,900 USD and currently maintains price activity above this level. With the current position, gold has conditions to continue to increase in price with the goal of reaching an all-time peak rather than renewing the previously achieved all-time peak. The upward relative strength index shows that the bearish momentum is also weakening, giving way to overwhelming buying force. In general, in terms of the overall technical picture, gold still tends to be completely bullish, and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,881 – 2,857USD Resistance: 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2921 - 2919⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2925 →Take Profit 1 2913 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2907 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2845 →Take Profit 1 2857 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2863
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
XAUUSD Channel Up preparing the new Bullish Leg.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 month. Friday's test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) proved once again why this level is the strongest Support within the pattern, as it held and has initiated a relative bounce. If this continues, it should technically be the new Bullish Leg, similar to the January 27 rebound on the 4H MA50. As you can see, even the 4H RSI sequences among those fractals follow the same pattern. If (d) is indeed the technical RSI bottom, then we can expect a similar 1.5 Fibonacci extension rally to 2970. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
My thoughts for GCIm looking for areas of consolidation on a higher time frame preferably the one hour then on the 5min wait for a bullish engulfing to print to enter for buys, now Monday is a holiday so I know NYSE will be closed so for the entries already taken, during Asian opening will only be technical trades, but there is high impact news, and depending on descolations with Russia, I plan for contiunation buys, but I plan to watch the dollar and the yields for any potential reversals to the. downside
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FuturesBaddie
GOLD heads towards all-time levels with a more positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered as US Treasury yields plummet amid a trade war, existential and dangerous. The increase in gold purchases by central banks has created more room for gold price increases. US real yields, which are inversely correlated with gold prices, fell 8 basis points to 2.072%, which is positive for gold. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 4.519%. Bloomberg said gold prices have stabilized near all-time highs after US President Trump ordered back-and-forth tariffs, increasing uncertainty in trade and the global economy. Trump announced on Thursday local time that the United States will impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all countries exporting goods to the United States to restore a fair competitive environment in global trade, but has not yet given a specific implementation timeline. This is a new escalation in the trade war after Trump announced an additional 25% tax on all steel and aluminum imported into the US. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, the amount of gold purchased by central banks increased by more than 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election. Central banks, including China's increased gold holdings and expansion of exchange-traded funds backed by the metal, have also supported gold's 12% gain so far this year. Today's key financial data and events: Friday, February 14, 2025 ① 17:00 Eurozone revised annual GDP rate in the fourth quarter ② 17:00 Eurozone seasonally adjusted initial employment rate in the fourth quarter ③ 20:30 Canadian monthly wholesale rate for December ④ 20:30 US monthly retail sales rate in January ⑤ 21:30 US monthly import price index ratio for January ⑥ 21:15 US monthly industrial output rate for January ⑦ 22:00 US monthly commercial inventory ratio in December ⑧ 01:00 the next day Total number of oil rigs in the United States as of week ending February 14 Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to rise for the second day after gaining support from the confluence of the upper channel edge and the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, and with its current position it has the conditions to continue rising with a target of all-time highs in the short term, more likely new era highs targeting around 2,952 USD. The bullish technical structure has not changed, with the short-term trend highlighted by the price channel, while the Relative Strength Index is still pointing up with the green uptrend showing no signs of a possible downside correction. During the day, as long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook. Pullbacks do not see the RSI go below 80, and below EMA21 should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity. Along with that, notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,891USD Resistance: 2,927 – 2,942 – 2,952USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 →Take Profit 1 2943 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2937 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2892 - 2894⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2888 →Take Profit 1 2900 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2906
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Weekly Analysis – Bullish & Bearish ScenariosCurrent Market Structure: Gold is trending upward within a well-defined weekly ascending channel and has not broken out yet. The market is currently near the upper boundary of the channel, meaning a breakout or a potential rejection could occur. Expected Movement This Week: Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability If Momentum Holds): A clean breakout above the channel resistance would signal continued bullish momentum. The price could consolidate briefly at the breakout level before pushing higher toward $3,000+. If a pullback happens after breaking out, we expect a retest of previous resistance (now support) before continuing upward. Confirmation: Strong bullish candles with increasing volume. Bearish Scenario (If Gold Fails to Break Above Resistance): If gold fails to break out and rejects from the upper boundary, a correction is likely. The first key downside target is around $2,760 (weekly level), aligning with previous structure. A deeper decline could lead to $2,571, which is another weekly support zone. Confirmation: A strong rejection wick, bearish engulfing pattern, or increased selling pressure. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk and can result in substantial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScalpMasterPlus
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 17-21stThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 17-21st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: ES \ S&P 500 NQ | NASDAQ 100 YM | Dow Jones 30 GC |Gold SiI | Silver PL | Platinum HG | Copper FOMC on Wednesday. The news could impact the direction of the USD Index, so be mindful of it. The markets had a relatively bullish week. Trumps reciprocal tariffs study announcement eased some of the tension in the markets also allowed equities to run higher. The metals saw a bearish turn at the end of the week, but caution should be taken if considering shorting these markets. The overall bullish trend is still in tact. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!
by RT_Money
1
GOLD patience needed until this Bull Flag targets 3080.Gold / XAUUSD is correcting aggressively today on the 1day timeframe with the 1day RSI neutralized from previously overbought to just bullish now. This is so far the strongest correction since the rally started on the December 18th 2024 low. Based on those parameters, we believe that this is a Bull Flag similar to late September's. We expect it to be completed by the end of the month. Buy and target 3035 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
Profit taking action, GOLD decreased significantlyOANDA:XAUUSD fell significantly as investors took profits after hitting record highs, but remained optimistic as US President Donald Trump's new tariffs raised fears of a global trade war. Trump has sharply increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25% with "no exceptions or exemptions," a move he hopes will help struggling U.S. industries but could also spark a trade war on multiple fronts. Traders will need to keep an eye on US inflation data today (Wednesday) for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates in the world's largest economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates because the economy is "strong overall" and inflation remains above its 2% target. Powell's comments were part of an opening statement he prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing. Inflation data is in focus this trading day, and higher-than-expected inflation data could extend the Fed's pause on interest rate hikes, which could lead to a slowdown in gold's performance in the short term. The impact is also reversed if inflation data is lower than expected, which further boosts market sentiment about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates next quarter. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates will reduce the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected sharply but in general the position and technical structure still support the possibility of price increases. While the trend from the short-term price channel remains stable and the Relative Strength Index has not provided a clear bearish signal. At the same time, the support levels from the 0.382% and 0.236% Fibonacci extension positions are also slowing down the correction momentum. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the short-term technical outlook remains bullish. The current downward corrections should be seen as an opportunity to buy. Notable locations will be listed as follows. Support: 2,881 – 2,869USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,909USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2931 - 2929⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2935 →Take Profit 1 2923 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2917 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2859 - 2861⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2855 →Take Profit 1 2867 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2873
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rises above $2,900 with further upside targetsUS President Donald Trump vowed to impose "retaliatory tariffs" on all countries that impose duties on US imports as early as Wednesday evening (February 12) local time, raising concerns about the expansion of the global trade war and possibly accelerating US inflation. This is beneficial for gold to recover quickly. Trump's latest round of tariffs unsettled markets comes just as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to visit the White House on Thursday. The Trump administration has complained that India's high tariffs have hindered U.S. imports. Economists generally view tariffs as an inflation risk, with data released Wednesday showing U.S. consumer prices rose the most in nearly a year and a half in January. OANDA:XAUUSD jumped $45 from Wednesday's low After the release of stronger-than-expected US CPI data on Wednesday, spot gold prices fell sharply to $2,864 per ounce in early New York trading on Wednesday. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.0% year-over-year in January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the data to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in January, while economists expected increases of 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Economists have generally raised their inflation forecasts since Trump was elected out of concern that his policies, especially tariffs, could spark price pressures in the economy. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but because gold does not earn interest, a higher interest rate environment reduces its investment appeal. However, fueled by safe-haven demand, gold prices have recovered strongly from lows. During the New York trading session on Wednesday, gold prices jumped above the original price of 2,900 USD and as of the time this article was completed it was trading at around 2,909 USD/ounce, up 45 Dollars compared to the level from yesterday's trading day. Central banks' gold demand has increased as the World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, central banks' gold purchases increased more than 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election. Gold's recent rally has come alongside an influx of money into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by the metal. According to Bloomberg calculations, global gold ETFs have grown more than 1% this year, reaching their highest level since November last year. Technically on the daily chart, after OANDA:XAUUSD took support from the Fibonacci extension confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, it quickly recovered above the original price point of 2,900 USD. This was noted to readers in yesterday's edition. Given its current position, it has room to continue rising with a target of around $2,927 in the short term, more than $2,952. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the short-term uptrend will still prevail, while the Relative Strength Index has not shown any clear signs of a potential correction. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noted again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,900 – 2,891 – 2,869USD Resistance: 2,927 – 2,952USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2931 - 2929⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2935 →Take Profit 1 2923 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2917 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2878 - 2880⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2874 →Take Profit 1 2886 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2892
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Options Activity Point to Continuing RallyNot a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue? Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now. BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We have covered it previously in Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments . In that we highlighted the three main forces at play: (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India, and (c) Trump administration’s fiscal policies favouring gold. In addition to the above, US Dollar weaponization, De-dollarisation fears, and Tariff tensions, serve as additional tailwinds. TradingView Wizard, Konhow , has comprehensively covered the historical impact of tariffs on Gold in his recent paper and video . SENTIMENTS HAVE SURRENDERED IN FAVOR OF RISING GOLD This research note will not dive into the weeds of technical analysis either. TradingView’s Technical Analysis dashboard summarises it all elegantly. TradingView Momentum is in favour. Oscillators are neutral indicating little risk of price reversal. Overall, sentiment remains bullish gold. Gold prices as represented by CME Micro Gold Futures front month contract formed a golden cross on 10th January 2025. Since then, prices are up 8.5% as of 13th February 2025. Current prices are well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day DMAs. RSI is in overbought zone. Expect some pull back in gold prices from time to time on profit taking. But the upward trend is undeniable. The MACD shows that Gold momentum continues to be on the rise but with waning bullishness. Readers can access the entire library of technical ideas focussing on Gold on TradingView’s Gold Ideas Page ideas page . OPTIONS MARKETS ARE SIGNALLING A SOLID BULL RUN AHEAD This paper aims to unpack recent activity in CME gold options market and its impact on prices. No contrary signals there either. Options market also signal bullish gold. QuikStrike is a free-to-use tool for registered participants on the CME Group website. The tool provides a vast range of analytics to guide portfolio managers & traders to better comprehend the underlying market. Each report comes with a helpful user-guide to describe the data covered within the report. Some key takeaways below: Open Interest Profile page shows that as of close of markets on 11th February 2025, total call open interest (“OI” for short) stood at 634,815 lots across all expiries and strikes. Aggregate put IO totalled up to 357,305 lots resulting in a put-call ratio (p/c ratio) of 0.56. Calls are options contract that represent a bullish view. While puts are contracts representing bearish outlook. At 0.56 p/c ratio, there are twice as many bullish positions for each bearish one. Source: CME QuikStrike Most Active Strikes allow portfolio managers and traders to analyse top strikes with shifts in open interest. Table below shows top 10 strikes registering the largest change in open interest between 4th February and 11th February. Starting first with the Calls (left section of the table below), participants have been building up open interest in strikes 4000, 3200, 3250, 4500, 4032, and 3,975. Call options have also booked reduction in open interest at strikes 3000, 3075, 3100 and 3025. On a net-basis, open interest is up 10,312 lots across these top ten strikes over various expiries this year. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts (right section of the table above) shows rising build up in open interest for strikes ranging from 2740 to 2880. Collectively, this indicates that market participants are rooting for gold prices to rise through USD 3,000/oz and to even rally past USD 4,500/oz. Will that happen? Only time will tell. Given that risk managers are establishing puts at such high levels point to strong support for gold prices at current levels. In a nutshell, current prices are not only formidably comfortable but the potential to rise is also highly probable. Shifting the attention to volatility, the CME Group also offers CVol which is another free-to-use tool. Portfolio managers and traders can visualise implied volatility behaviour on this tool. Source: CME CVol The GCVL which is the Gold CVol index shows implied volatility at 17.65 and with a positive skew of 1.08. Implied volatility easing even at an elevated prices indicates that market participants are comfortable at current price levels and do not foresee immediate large price moves. Skew on the CVol tool is defined as Up Var minus Down Var. Up Var is the likelihood of the price rising while Down Var measures the likelihood of prices falling. A positive skew shows that the market is pricing a higher likelihood of rising prices relative to a down move. FUND FLOWS INTO GOLD ETF IS UP 47% YOY Among its rich set of features, TradingView also shows daily ETF fund flows . GLD is the prominent ETF commanding assets under management (AUM) of USD 80.65 billion. This time last year, GLD ETF showed AUM of USD 54.77 billion. Fund inflows have spiked 47.25% over the past 12 months. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With fundamentals, sentiment, options market, and fund flows all pointing to a price that is set to rise, this paper posits a long position using CME Micro Gold Futures expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025) based on the following entry, exit levels and the reward-to-risk ratio: • Entry: USD 2,900/oz • Target: USD 3,100/oz • Stop: USD 2,800/oz • P&L at Target (USD per lot): +2,000 ((3,100 – 2,900) x 10) • P&L at Stop (USD per lot): -1,000 ((2,800 – 2,900) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2x Please note that Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. The competition lasts another 15-days. Please join the 48,000+ others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 2935.0 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 2820.0 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. 💠 Fundamental Analysis The GC1 contract is influenced by global economic trends, monetary policies, and commodity market fluctuations. Central banks' cautious approach to interest rates and inflation management impacts gold prices. 💠 Macroeconomic Analysis GDP Growth Rate: Global economic growth slows down, with the US GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q4. Inflation Rate: Inflation trends show moderation, with the US inflation rate at 1.0% annualized. Employment and Labor Market: The US job market remains solid, with 353,000 jobs added in January. 💠 COT Data Analysis Institutional Traders: 55% long, 45% short. Retail Traders: 52% short, 48% long. Large Banks: 57% long, 43% short. 💠 Market Sentimental Analysis Market Sentiment: 40% bullish, 60% bearish. Trader Sentiment: 29% long, 71% short. 💠 Market Sentiment by Trader Type - Institutional Traders: 60% bullish, 40% bearish - Hedge Funds: 55% bearish, 45% bullish - Retail Traders: 55% bullish, 45% bearish 💠 Positioning Data Analysis Bullish Trend: 45% likely. Bearish Trend: 55% likely. 💠 Overall Outlook GC1 prices may fluctuate due to central banks' monetary policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical tensions. Investors are cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technology and innovation-driven sectors. Key Factors Influencing GC1 Prices Monetary Policy Adjustments: Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Inflation Trends: Global inflation rates. Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions and commodity market fluctuations. Technology Sector Resilience: Growth potential in AI and semiconductor fields. Cryptocurrency Market Volatility: Bitcoin's impact on traditional markets. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Thief_Trader
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 13th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks), 3rd phase of the cycle. The pivot forecast on February 3 worked as a reversal of Monday’s overnight tariff hysteria. The major trend from the December 18 extreme forecast continues. ⚠️ By Friday’s close, we saw a breakout of the previous top at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2800 on the current futures contract). This level may now become strong support. I believe strong hands didn’t fall for the tariff hysteria and held their long positions from the January 29 extreme forecast. Next extreme forecast: March 3. Next pivot forecast: February 11.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest