Easing market risks put pressure on GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD fell to a two-week low on Thursday (May 1), mainly due to signs of easing trade tensions and a long holiday in China, the world's largest gold consumer. Investors will be looking ahead to the US non-farm payrolls report due today (Friday), which is expected to cause major market movements.
Easing trade tensions between the US and other countries have kept investors optimistic throughout the week. In addition, easing US-China trade tensions have also added to the pressure on gold as there are no additional risks to stimulate safe-haven demand.
US President Donald Trump has decided to exempt some tariffs on the auto industry and made progress on deals with India, South Korea and Japan. On Wednesday local time, Trump said there was a great chance of reaching a trade deal with China and that there were "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, and that he was working to reach agreements with the three countries.
The Trump administration hopes to reach preliminary trade agreements with several trading partners within weeks, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Wednesday. U.S. Commerce Secretary Mattis Lutnick said at least one trade deal is close to being announced, several others are close to being finalized, and Trump may be waiting for an opportunity to announce them all at once.
Data released on Wednesday showed the US economy contracted in the first quarter and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was flat in March, turning investors' attention to the non-farm payrolls report due out today (Friday). The US non-farm payrolls report for April will be released on May 2 (8:30 a.m. ET). Expectations for the non-farm report are that traders and economists expect the report to show 133,000 new jobs in the US, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month (up 3.9% year-on-year), and the U3 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Fed policymakers said they would keep interest rates on hold until there are clear signs that inflation is falling toward the 2% target or there is a possibility that the job market is deteriorating.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold remains in the best position for bullish expectations with support from the EMA21 and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also reacting to the 50 level, which is considered the closest support in terms of momentum.
In the short term, if gold returns to trade above $3,270, it will be considered the best condition for a bullish recovery to end the broad-based correction.
However, if gold is sold below $3,228 and maintains its price action below this level, it will likely continue to decline with a subsequent target of around $3,163 in the short term.
In the day, considering the current position, gold still has conditions for a bullish outlook technically and the notable price levels will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,228 – $3,163
Resistance: $3,267 – $3,270
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3268⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3275
→Take Profit 1 3262
↨
→Take Profit 2 3256
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3174 - 3176⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3170
→Take Profit 1 3182
↨
→Take Profit 2 3188
GC1! (Gold Futures)
GOLD may enter accumulation when the market lacks impact Spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices were broadly steady in Asian trade on Friday (April 25) after a sharp rise in the previous trading day. The current price of gold is around $3,341/ounce, down from the $3,371 price target that readers noted in yesterday's edition. Spot gold prices jumped on Thursday, snapping a nearly 3% decline the previous day, helped by a weaker US dollar and bargain-hunting as investors kept a close eye on the latest news on tariff negotiations.
Market Highlights
Gold prices rebounded on Thursday after their biggest drop this year as bargain hunters entered the market, Bloomberg reported.
China's official broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday that the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a plan to impose tiered tariffs on China, and White House press secretary Levitt said Trump's stance on tariffs on China "has not softened."
"This is all fake news. As far as I know, China and the United States have never consulted or negotiated on tariffs, let alone reached an agreement. This tariff war was initiated by the United States, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: if you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to negotiate, the door is open. Dialogue and negotiation must be equal, respectful and mutually beneficial," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack made it clear in an interview on Thursday that the Fed has essentially ruled out a rate cut in May. But she also delivered a key message, saying that if there is clear evidence of the economy’s direction, there will be room for policy action in June.
When asked if a rate cut was possible in June, Hammack said: “If we get clear and compelling data in June, then I think the committee will act, assuming we have a clear understanding of the right path for policy at that point.” Markets reacted quickly after Hammack’s remarks, with interest rate swaps indicating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June rising to around 65%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After achieving the target increase twice, which readers should pay attention to in the previous day's publication at 3,371 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236%, the recovery momentum of gold is being controlled and limited.
In the short term, gold is likely to enter a sideways accumulation phase, waiting for more fundamental breakthroughs. The expected accumulation area is around 3,371 - 3,292 USD, which are the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, with the current position, the main outlook is still bullish in the long term with the trend from the price channel as the main trend and support from the EMA21 as the main support.
During the day, the expectation of short-term accumulation in the main uptrend will be noted by the following levels.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3411 - 3409⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3415
→Take Profit 1 3403
↨
→Take Profit 2 3397
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3204 - 3206⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3200
→Take Profit 1 3212
↨
→Take Profit 2 3218
GOLD drops sharply to $43, important support areaOANDA:XAUUSD encountered a sudden sell-off in early Asian trading on Thursday (May 1). The current price of gold is around $3,245/ounce, down sharply by $43 on the day and at a key technical position.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell for a third consecutive day as signs that trade talks between the United States and China may be progressing reduced demand for safe-haven assets, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. China Central Television said the United States has been in touch with China through various channels.
Bloomberg noted that concerns about the global trade outlook were also eased by news that the Trump administration was close to announcing the first of a series of deals that would reduce planned tariffs on several countries.
OANDA:XAUUSD have risen about 25% this year, largely as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset as U.S. President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting trade policies have roiled markets and stoked fears of a global economic slowdown.
However, inflows into gold ETFs, central bank buying and strong speculative demand from China will also provide fundamental support for gold prices.
Looking ahead, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report could reveal the initial impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is trading at a crucial support area for long-term bullish expectations with support from Ema21 converging with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. If gold is sold below $3,228, it could continue to decline further with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also approaching the 50 level after a period of correction, which in this case acts as the nearest support.
It can be said that with the current position, gold has the most support with EMA21 converging with Fibonacci retracement 0.50% in terms of trend, and RSI approaching 50 is support in terms of momentum.
During the day, the current position still shows that gold has the potential to increase in price and the notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: 3,245 - 3,228 USD
Resistance: 3,267 - 3,292 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3295 - 3293⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3299
→Take Profit 1 3287
↨
→Take Profit 2 3281
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3195 - 3197⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3191
→Take Profit 1 3203
↨
→Take Profit 2 3209
GOLD trades around $3,300, market lacks major impactOANDA:XAUUSD sare trading lower around the $3,300/oz flatline as easing US-China trade tensions dampen the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, while investors await US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
OANDA:XAUUSD have been trading in a narrow range recently as the market awaits details of the first trade deal, which is expected to be announced this week or next.
OANDA:XAUUSD has reversed to a downside correction since last week as Trump made some very positive comments and the risk of stagflation was further ruled out, and gold prices continued to fall. Stagflation has pushed gold higher and as the market starts to price in this risk, a correction is natural, especially considering that “buying gold” has become the top trade and it is technically in overbought territory.
Looking at the larger picture, gold prices remain in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing. But in the short term, more positive news on tariffs could see gold prices continue to fall as the market adjusts to the new conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD , traditionally seen as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 last week amid heightened uncertainty.
Investors will be watching economic data for the rest of the week, including Wednesday's personal consumption expenditure report and Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
Technical Outlook OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to move sideways as the accumulation state takes place as the market has no fundamental impact of any sudden change. With the current position, gold is not qualified to increase or decrease significantly with the sideway area of attention in the range of 3,371 - 3,292 USD being the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, overall, gold is still inclined to increase in the long term with the price channel as the main trend and support from EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains above/within the price channel, above EMA21, it still has the technical conditions for the main trend to be up, the declines should only be considered as short-term corrections and not an official trend.
During the day, the sideways accumulation state with the main uptrend will be noticed again by the following positions.
Support: 3,292 – 3,267 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3382 - 3380⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3386
→Take Profit 1 3374
↨
→Take Profit 2 3368
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3285⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3279
→Take Profit 1 3291
↨
→Take Profit 2 3297
XAUUSD: Bearish towards the previous High.Gold is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.142, MACD = 87.300, ADX = 39.603) but has found itself on a short term correction since last week's High. All prior short term pullbacks have tested the High that preceded them. This gives a clear bearish TP = 3,175. It is possible for the market to also make contact with the 1D MA50 there, which has been intact as a Support since January 7th.
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GOLD accumulate as the market lacks major fundamental impactSpot OANDA:XAUUSD moved significantly in early morning trading on Tuesday (April 29) and is currently trading at $3,315/oz, down 0.87% on the day at the time of writing.
OANDA:XAUUSD reversed losses on Monday and rebounded, having earlier dipped to around $3,268. The US Dollar (Dxy) fell broadly on Monday, supporting gold as investors cautiously awaited more news on US trade policy and braced for a week of in-depth economic data that could provide early indications of whether US President Trump’s trade war is having an impact.
The U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY fell 0.7% on Monday to close at 98.91, its lowest close in four trading days. The DXY has fallen 4.89% in April and is set to post its biggest monthly decline since July last year as Trump has shaken confidence in the reliability of U.S. assets.
A majority of economists polled by Reuters see a high risk of a global recession this year, with many saying that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have hurt business confidence. Bessant said on Monday that major U.S. trading partners have made “very good” proposals to avoid U.S. tariffs and one of the first deals to be signed would likely be with India.
Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have said they are ready to cut rates if risks to economic growth become clear. But most officials appear to want to determine the impact of Trump’s tariffs on real economic indicators like inflation and employment before taking action.
This week, the US will also release first-quarter GDP data and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, while Europe will also release preliminary GDP and inflation data.
Investors are also awaiting the US April jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show that employment is still growing, albeit at a much slower pace than a month ago.
Investors will also pay attention to the US JOLT jobs data for March and the second round of US-Japan tariff talks, due out today.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to move sideways as there is no fundamental impact big enough to break the structure to create a short-term trend. But in terms of position, gold is currently likely to decline as the RSI is pointing down quite far from 50, 50 in this case acts as the nearest target support indicating that there is still room for downside ahead in the short term.
However, in the overall picture, gold is still trending up mainly due to supporting factors such as the trending price channel as the main trend, the main support from EMA21 and as long as gold is above EMA21, in/above the price channel, it is still in the main uptrend, the declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity.
During the day, gold is expected to accumulate with the main uptrend, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,292 – 3,267 – 3,245 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3382 - 3380⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3386
→Take Profit 1 3374
↨
→Take Profit 2 3368
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3287 - 3289⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3283
→Take Profit 1 3295
↨
→Take Profit 2 3301
GOLD falls more than 40 Dollars, widening correction rangeSpot OANDA:XAUUSD unexpectedly accelerated its decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 28). The current price of gold is around 3,280 USD/ounce, down more than 40 USD on the day. The price of gold has gradually decreased compared to the intraday high of 3,336.98 USD/ounce reached at the beginning of the trading session.
The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States has weakened gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Gold prices have fallen more than 5% since breaking above $3,500 an ounce last Wednesday.
The latest developments around US-China trade relations and the release of key US macroeconomic data will trigger gold’s near-term price action. Market participants will be closely watching US economic growth and employment data this week.
The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge fund managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options to a 14-month low.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below the raw price of $3,300 and at its current position it could continue to decline further with a short-term target of around $3,245 where the price confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
Although gold has fallen significantly from $3,500, looking at the overall chart, gold still has bullish conditions with support from EMA21 and the rising price channel as the long-term trend. On the other hand, the down trending RSI is also approaching the 50 level, in this case the 50 level is the closest support at present, indicating that there may not be much room for decline in the short term.
Once gold is back in action above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be in position to rebound with a target of around $3,371 in the short term.
During the day, the bearish correction could continue but will be limited by the EMA21 and the price channel. Along with that, the bearish correction along with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical positions.
Support: $3,245 – $3,228 – $3,200
Resistance: $3,292 – $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3328 - 3326⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3332
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3314
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3228⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3222
→Take Profit 1 3234
↨
→Take Profit 2 3240
Gold-Silver Ratio: Silver’s Lag and Historical DivergencesThe gold-silver ratio - the number of silver ounces equals in value to one ounce of gold – has surged recently as gold prices rally while silver underperforms. Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has climbed to record highs amid economic uncertainty, whereas silver, which is partly an industrial commodity, has struggled to break past $35/oz. As a result, the ratio is around 100 – meaning gold is ~100 times the price of silver despite the correction in the ratio from its peak around 125.
For context, the ratio averaged 57 from 1975-2000, and between 2000-2025 the ratio has ranged from 32 and 125 (with the max level reached this month with an average of 68. The ratio has observed extreme spikes in unusual crises).
Today’s elevated ratio highlights the divergence between gold’s sharp rally and silver’s lagging performance. The 25-year mean of the ratio is at 68, suggesting the present levels (100) represent an extreme deviation in favour of gold.
Historical Parallels in Gold-Silver Divergences
Similar wide divergences between gold and silver have occurred in the past. Key historical episodes illustrate how silver eventually played “catch-up” after lagging gold – albeit with varying lag times:
1970s – Silver’s Late Surge: After the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold prices soared while silver lagged. However, silver eventually staged a sharp rally later in the decade, quickly closing the gap and driving the gold-silver ratio sharply lower.
1980s – Prolonged Underperformance: Following the 1980 peak, precious metals collapsed, with silver suffering far more than gold. The gold-silver ratio surged and remained elevated through the 1980s and 1990s, as silver failed to catch up and largely moved sideways until the 2000s.
Early 2000s – Post-Recession Catch-Up: After the 2001 recession, gold began a
new bull market while silver initially lagged. Eventually, silver outpaced gold’s gains over the next several years, significantly narrowing the gold-silver ratio.
2008 Financial Crisis – Sharp Divergence and Recovery: The 2008 crisis caused gold to outperform sharply as silver collapsed. However, as the economy recovered, silver staged a dramatic rebound, quickly closing the gap and normalizing the ratio by 2011.
Why Is Silver Lagging Now? Industrial Demand Uncertainty
Roughly half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, photovoltaics, chemicals). Persistent worries about a global manufacturing slowdown and elevated inventories have capped silver’s upside just as investors have chased gold for geopolitical protection.
Source: Silver Institute
Worries about industrial demand have been exacerbated by the recent trade uncertainties which impact industrial sectors in an outsized manner.
By contrast, gold’s appeal as a safe haven has been boosted by geopolitical and inflation fears, driving it to record highs in 2025.
Despite cyclical swings, the underlying secular trend has crept higher for decades. Gold’s monetisation (central-bank reserves, ETF holdings surge) versus silver’s demonetisation, higher real production costs for gold, and silver’s growing industrial elasticity are all factors that represent a risk to normalization of the GSR.
Even a forceful mean-reversion might therefore stall nearer 60–70 than the sub-40 extremes of earlier cycles.
Hypothetical Trade Setups
History shows that once macroeconomic uncertainty clears, silver often recovers lost ground quickly. In previous periods of extreme gold-silver divergence, from the 1970s through 2008, silver staged strong rallies that pushed the gold-silver ratio (GSR) back toward normal levels.
Today, however, silver’s outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, particularly amid the ongoing trade war. Prices risk stalling below resistance around $35/oz. Consequently, the normalization in the GSR may instead result from a correction in gold prices. Gold has consistently broken record highs, and its long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Nevertheless, concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally are valid - last week, gold fell sharply after setting a new high above $3,500/oz.
In summary, a normalization in the GSR could result from either a silver rally or a gold correction. While each path remains uncertain, a position focused on the ratio itself is relatively insulated from further divergence.
Given this environment, we could express our view in GSR through a long position in silver and a short position in gold. Investors can implement this using CME Micro Silver and Micro Gold futures. This setup benefits from 72% margin offsets. The Micro contracts balance the notional value between both legs by using one contract each.
A hypothetical trade setup consisting of a short position in CME Micro Gold futures expiring in June (MGCM2025) and a short position in CME Micro Silver futures expiring in June (SILM2025), offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x, is described below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
XAUUSD correcting to its 4H MA200.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the start of the year. Last week's rejection on its top (Higher Highs trend-line) has resulted into a break below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
This has technically been the signal that started the previous 2 Bearish Legs, which both bottomed upon touching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and once the 4H RSI got oversold below 30.00.
As a result, we expect more downside, targeting 3160.
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Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
Markets are looking tradeable again.
The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher.
Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG.
Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created.
Let's go!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD recovers, market sentiment correction may stopAfter US President Trump hinted that tariffs on China could be reduced and that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the market's risk-off sentiment cooled and international gold prices fell on Wednesday (April 23) before recovering slightly in early trading today, Thursday (April 24).
Last night, Trump made some important comments, not only clearly showing a softer stance on China but also making it clear that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (in fact, he has no authority to do so).
The current bullish cycle in OANDA:XAUUSD is largely driven by the market pricing in the risk of “stagflation”, but as this risk is gradually eliminated, gold could see a significant correction.
Looking at the big picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing policy. But in the short term, if positive tariff news continues to emerge, gold could fall further and the market will adjust to the new environment.
Earlier, after days of harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, Trump withdrew his threat to fire Chairman Powell. At the same time, he also expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China to significantly reduce import tariffs from China, but also warned that "if they don't make a deal, we'll make a deal."
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its forecast for global and US economic growth this year, citing Trump's tariff policies as the main reason for the downgrade.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has set new historical highs several times since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of more than 26%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After 2 days of significant correction, gold recovered in today's Asian trading session (24/4) with the recovery level taking the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest support. As noted to readers throughout the publications, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the main support from the EMA21, as long as the price decline does not break below the above supports, it should only be considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity.
As of now, gold is trading around $3,333/oz, up 1.38% on the day and around $45 and the upside momentum is expected to test the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $3,430.
For the day, the main technical outlook for gold is bullish recovery, and the notable positions are listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,245
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
→Take Profit 1 3375
↨
→Take Profit 2 3369
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3206 - 3208⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3202
→Take Profit 1 3214
↨
→Take Profit 2 3220
Mid-Week Market Forecast: GOLD, SILVER, COPPER & PLATINUMIn this video, we'll present analysis and best setups for Wednesday, April 22nd to the end of the week.
Gold is still a buy.
Silver may present a sell opportunity at current levels.
Copper looks like it is setting up for a valid sell.
Platinum has showed weakness early this week. We'll watch for continuation.
Be patient, and wait for confirmations!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD holds above 3,400, heading towards 3,500As the US Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD weakened and Sino-US trade tensions raised market concerns about the economic outlook, investor risk aversion increased, pushing gold prices to a record high, breaking through the $3,400/ounce mark and maintaining price action above this level, continuing to target a new all-time high of $3,500.
The US Dollar fell sharply during the day as US President Donald Trump made critical remarks about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, further undermining market confidence in the US economy. A weaker US Dollar typically makes US Dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.
On trade, China accused the United States of abusing the tariff tool and warned other countries not to reach broader economic and trade agreements with the United States at the expense of their own interests. Gold, long seen as a hedge against uncertainty and a highly liquid asset, has risen more than $700 since the start of 2025. Gold broke through $3,300 for the first time last Wednesday and the surge has pushed prices above $100 again in just a few days.
Trump is considering removing Fed Chairman Powell and has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has spoken out publicly against undermining the independence of the central bank.
Trump also made some shocking statements. Trump shared his thoughts on the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold rules.
This post about gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media.
Trump also said, "Businessmen who criticize Tariffs are bad at business, but they are really bad at politics. They don't understand or realize that I am the best friend American Capitalism has ever had!"
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to hold above the $3,400 base point and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, which is a positive factor for the gold price's bullish outlook. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is operating in the overbought zone but is not sending any signals indicating a possible downside correction, a sign indicating a possible downside correction is the RSI heading below 80.
In terms of current position, gold still has a bullish outlook in the short term with the price channel as the trend and maintaining activity above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level provides conditions for gold to aim for a new bullish target at $3,482 in the short term, more than the raw price point of $3,500.
During the day, the short-term bullish outlook of gold will be focused again by the following positions.
Support: $3,420 – $3,400
Resistance: $3,482 – $3,500
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3517 - 3515⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3521
→Take Profit 1 3509
↨
→Take Profit 2 3503
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3448 - 3450⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3456
↨
→Take Profit 2 3462
GOLD at its peak, Trump and Powell in focusSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with gold just hitting a new record high of $3,384.62 an ounce. Gold is now up more than $60 on the day. Trump's comments and the Powell "conspiracy" have combined to trigger market activity.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump released his insights into the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying that "the golden rule of negotiation and success is that he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold will have the upper hand. This post on gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media.
Gold prices have surged to a record high as the U.S.-led trade war fuels safe-haven demand and the dollar weakens, Bloomberg reported, and data in the coming days could highlight early signs of damage to the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund is expected to cut its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) the following day will provide a snapshot of economic activity since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs.
Gold prices have hit record highs this year as trade conflicts have roiled global markets, denting demand for riskier assets while spurring a rush to safe havens among investors.
Gold ETF holdings have risen for a 12-week streak, the longest such streak since 2022. Central banks have also increased their holdings of gold, supporting strong global demand.
Bloomberg notes that the sell-off in the US dollar intensified on Monday as US President Trump weighs whether to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Powell's possible removal could undermine investor confidence as the Fed's independence is seen as a key factor in investing in US assets. However, given that Trump has previously said he welcomes a weaker currency because it makes US products more competitive, he may welcome a weaker US dollar.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the technical chart, the short correction last Friday ended quickly as gold continued to rise along the short-term price channel.
The increase broke the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, giving gold the conditions to continue to rise with the target of the 3,400 USD price point in the short term, more than the 3,420 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
It is difficult to expect a significant correction in the current context, but the RSI down through 80 can be considered a good signal for the expectation of a short-term correction.
However, with the current position, the main technical outlook for gold is still bullish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 3,372 – 3,357 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,420 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3414 - 3412⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3418
→Take Profit 1 3406
↨
→Take Profit 2 3400
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
→Take Profit 1 3324
↨
→Take Profit 2 3330
XAUUSD It's most important week in 5 years.Gold (XAUUSD) hit last week the multi-year Higher Highs trend-line that has been in effect since the July 04 2016 High. Last time it had a rejection on it was on August 03 2020 when the market started the last 2-year Bear Cycle.
The current 1W candle has opened above this Higher Highs trend-line, so the week is of utmost importance as a closing below it maintains the pattern and the bearish Cycle Top bias, while above it jeopardizes invalidating it.
If as a result, the market closes the week below it and remains within the Fibonacci Channel Up, we may indeed be on Leg (4) peak and our Target will be near the 0.382 horizontal Fibonacci level at 2700 towards the end of the year. If not, we will see what new pattern is created and adapt accordingly (updates will follow).
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 21 - April 25]Earlier this week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD fell from $3,245/oz to $3,193/oz after US President Donald Trump exempted tariffs on 20 goods, including smartphones, laptops, hard drives, computer monitors and machinery used to produce semiconductors and chips. However, the US-China trade war became increasingly tense when Mr. Trump announced a tax of up to 245% on Chinese goods imported into the US, pushing the gold price to skyrocket to $3,357/oz, then adjusted down to $3,283/oz and closed the week at $3,327/oz.
Many experts believe that the unpredictable policy changes of the US President, as well as the risk of a global economic recession, especially Mr. Trump's threat to remove FED Chairman Powell...
May continue to support gold prices in the short term. In addition, the weakening of the USD has also been actively supporting the upward momentum of gold prices.
🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES THIS WEEK:
There won’t be many important economic reports coming up next week, especially since markets will be closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.
On Wednesday, markets will get the preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for April and new home sales data for March. On Thursday, a slew of important data will be released, including durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales. The weekend will close with the final report on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Markets will also be closely watching speeches from Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler and Patrick Harker, especially after notable comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
📌Technically, gold is already deep in overbought territory, and a technical correction could be imminent before gold can move higher. Depending on the strength of the correction, gold could fall to $3,250/oz next week, followed by $3,150/oz, and then the psychological support of $3,000/oz. However, if $3,300/oz proves to be a solid support level, gold could soon break above $3,400/oz next week. It could even go as high as $3,500/oz if US-China trade tensions continue to escalate.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,304 – 3,300 – 3,261USD
Resistance: 3,338 – 3,372USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3394 - 3392⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3243 - 3245⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3239