Crude Oil Monday BluesLooking for Crude oil to take some BSL and then look for shorting opportunities to head south for today.
If not then will be waiting.
GC1! (Gold Futures)
How to Position if you Missed the Gold RallyGold prices have reached another all-time high, supported by strong bullish momentum. However, the composition of buyers has shifted. While central banks fuelled the previous phase of the rally, institutional investors and retail buyers are now leading. Over the past six months, ETF inflows have totalled nearly $5 billion, and asset managers continue to build net long positions, nearing the peak levels seen during the pandemic.
Despite the bullish outlook, higher prices are tempering demand and reducing the potential for future returns. As an alternative, investors can opt for a tactical position using CME Micro Gold futures and the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
RATE CUTS ARE A GOLD DRIVER
Over the past four easing cycles, gold prices have appreciated by 10% following the start of Fed rate cuts. This time around, prices are up 5% since the first rate cut in September. That leaves room for further gains as the Fed cuts further.
Still, it is crucial to consider that gold prices are already trading at an all-time-high. Higher prices are pressuring further gains and consumer demand.
According to Prithviraj Kothari, president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold demand during this year’s festival season in India is likely to be 20% lower YoY in terms of quantity of gold purchased.
CENTRAL BANK BUYING NO LONGER THE DRIVING FACTOR
Since April, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has halted gold purchases, while Poland and India acquired 24.3 tons and 17.7 tons of gold, respectively, between June and August, exceeding their purchases from March to May. However, the pace of buying from these central banks may be slowing. The latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows a decline in gold reserves by $98 million to $65.6 billion, indicating a slowdown in gold accumulation despite still substantial holdings.
One of the largest buyers of gold this year, Turkey, also slowed its pace of purchases as it acquired just 7.9 tons of gold between June and August compared to 27.6 tons between March and May.
Source: World Gold Council
Additionally, the urgency for central banks to buy gold has lessened. Earlier, rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar prompted increased gold buying. As U.S. interest rates decrease, a weakening dollar is expected.
ASSET MANAGERS NET LONG POSITIONING IS NEAR ALL-TIME-HIGH
Asset Manager net long positioning has increased consistently over the last six months. It is near the highest level since the pandemic and 2016. Crucially, the increase in long positioning has been driven by both increasing longs and declining shorts indicating bullish consensus among asset managers.
SUBSTANTIAL ETF INFLOWS OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS
Gold ETFs listed in the US have accumulated USD 4.9 billion in inflows over the past 6 months. Inflows have grown by more than USD 1.7 billion since the Fed cut rates in September. While substantial outflows were observed on 8/Aug as global markets fell sharply, the decline was reversed in just 2 weeks.
Gold ETF inflows tend to follow cyclical patterns, and their current levels are relatively modest compared to previous inflow cycles, which have been significantly larger.
Substantial flows to gold ETFs and rallies in gold prices also tend to trigger flows into gold miner ETFs. Though these flows tend to lag flows into gold ETFs by several months.
GOLD MINERS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH UP
The outlook for gold remains mixed. While bullish momentum is supported by the anticipation of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, gold is already near all-time highs, which is discouraging further investment, particularly from retail investors.
A strategic way to capitalize on the later stages of a gold rally is through gold mining stocks. Gold miners typically lag behind gold during rallies, as returns from equities take longer to materialize and involve greater risk compared to direct gold investments. However, the impact of higher gold prices on miners' profitability is clear. In Q2 2024, Barrick, the world's largest gold miner, saw net income rise by 24% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a 13% increase in realized gold prices. Similarly, Newmont's net income increased by 32%, alongside a 12.3% rise in gold prices.
Gold miners are also benefiting from easing cost pressures. While costs remain high compared to last year due to inflation and energy-related increases, they improved in Q2, and further reductions are expected based on company guidance.
The gold to gold miner ratio is a cyclical quantity that has been trending higher for decades but also tends to mean-revert when the ratio edges to far in either direction.
As the ratio is due to cross the 200-week moving average, it may be due for an extended period of decline favouring gold miners.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Gold remains bullish through the Fed easing cycle and strong investment demand provide momentum. However, higher prices are dampening consumer demand and central bank buying is slowing. Further increase in gold is likely, however, further gains may be limited. Gold prices have already realized half of their average increase following a rate cut.
Alternatively, a position that is long on gold miners also benefits from rising gold prices.
Gold prices, as tracked through gold futures, are highly correlated with gold miners, measured by ETFs like GDX and SGDM, with a correlation coefficient typically near 0.9, though there are occasional period breaks. Since December 2023, gold prices have outperformed SGDM by nearly 20% and GDX by 5%.
As the current gold rally progresses, increased flows into gold miner ETFs are expected to support their prices. Additionally, improving cost structures for miners and higher realized gold prices create positive momentum.
Investors can hedge a long position in GDX by taking a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. This hedge protects the ETF position against potential declines in gold prices. The smaller contract size of CME Micro Gold futures makes them ideal for precise hedging, particularly given the smaller unit size of ETFs like SGDM.
637 units of GDX (at a price of 43.15 as of 18/Oct) are balanced by a hedge of 1 CME Micro Gold futures contract expiring in December. CME Micro Gold Futures require margin of just USD 1,100 while the GDX leg requires notional of USD 27,470.
The position offers multiple income-generating advantages. The GDX ETF provides a net dividend yield of 0.65% (after accounting for the management fee), and the short position in CME Micro Gold futures benefits from contango, which adds approximately 1% per quarter.
The payoff scenarios for this position are provided below:
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
XAUUSD quick pull-back is in order.Gold (XAUUSD) couldn't have gone better on our last call (October 14, see chart below) as after the expected minor pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded and is on its way to our 2750 Target:
As however the 4H and 1D RSI got overbought, we expect a short-term pull-back. Especially the 4H RSI, as you see on this chart, is forming a pattern similar to the September 13 short-term peak sequence that was rejected back below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level but was contained/ supported above the 4H MA50.
As a result, we can take a quick sell and target 2705 (0.236 Fib). Notice though that the trend will remain bullish medium-term as long as the 4H MA50 holds, in case you don't want to engage into riskier short-term trades such as this one.
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GOLD → 2685 breakout trigger. News ahead. A new conflict! FX:XAUUSD stops correlating with the dollar. The price is testing the key resistance at 2685. Bulls continue to test this area and accumulate the potential for a breakout attempt. Important news on jobless claims and retail sales are ahead
China's economic problems have a negative impact on gold as the country is the world's top gold consumer. At the same time, markets are resorting to profit taking on long USD positions ahead of the release of the most important economic data - the US retail sales report.
BUT! Another escalation, but in another part of the world: North Korea has declared South Korea an enemy and completely cut off transportation links with it. The markets are clearly not going to let this fact pass their ears.....
Technically, the buyers do not retreat from their intentions and continue to test the resistance with a breakdown target. A pre-breakdown consolidation and several possible scenarios are forming, no matter how many people don't like it.
Resistance levels: 2685
Support levels: 2674.5, 2665, 2658
A breakdown of resistance will trigger an impulse, and this is a logical scenario based on the technical situation on H1 (ascending triangle, accumulation and compression to the level).
BUT! The news can have an unpredictable impact. If gold forms a false breakout and goes back to 2674, having updated this low, the price may go even lower (to 2665, 2658), for liquidity, before returning to the way north
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Natural Gas Oil, Dollar, Silver, Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas stock Bulls PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Support & Resistance Guide
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Keep BUYING!This weekly forecast is for Oct. 21 - 25th.
Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 21 - Oct 25]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continuously increased sharply from 2,637 USD/oz to 2,723 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,721 USD/oz.
According to market observations, gold prices have skyrocketed in recent days due to the impact of many supporting factors:
First, the FED warned that it will continue to cut interest rates, although the extent of the FED's interest rate cuts may be less than the recent decision. Not only the FED, but many other central banks have also been implementing their plans to cut interest rates. This increases the appeal of gold.
Second, the level of public debt worldwide is even worse than current forecasts, while the measures that countries are taking will not be enough to prevent a sharp increase in public debt. According to the IMF, global public debt will exceed 100 trillion USD, equivalent to about 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year and will reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030.
Third, as central banks continue to walk the thin line between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation to prevent stagflation, global geopolitical tensions appear to be increasing day by day. Major conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, growing threats between Russia and NATO, Israel-Palestine conflict, tensions between Israel and the US with Iran, tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and many more threats Another threat has been increasing the role of gold as a haven.
Fourth, after Russia was removed from the SWIFT system on March 1, 2022, BRICS central banks increased gold reserves at a record pace, promoted currency swaps, and promoted transactions. across borders between BRICS countries is a sign that they are preparing for a global monetary reset. Meanwhile, BRICS member countries account for about 40% of global GDP. This will certainly have a negative impact on the USD.
Fifth, central banks of many countries are continuing to promote gold purchases to increase the proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, causing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries to decrease. down, potentially at risk of USD depreciation.
With so many of the above influencing factors, especially geopolitical conflicts, next week's gold price may increase even higher.
However, the increase in gold prices is being driven by FOMO psychology, which will pose strong profit-taking risks, especially when geopolitical tensions cool down.
📌Technically, the price is constantly setting new high price thresholds, when in turn breaking through old peak milestones, specifically in the H1 chart, the gold price is approaching the 161.8 Fibo zone, and next week it may continue to conquer. Recovering the Fibo threshold of 261.8 around the round resistance level of 2,800 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.741USD
Resistance: 2.688 – 2.700 – 2.711USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2805
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
GOLD → The realization phase continues. What are the targets?FX:XAUUSD in the phase of realizing the accumulated potential updates ATH to 2714 and is in no hurry to give up, movements can be continued...
Gold feels support from the Chinese markets after positive hints from the People's Bank of China revived hope for stimulating the economy. Also from the European side - the ECB cut its key rate, in anticipation of another, fourth cut in December...
Strong data from the US on Thursday pointed to a solid economic outlook, but this failed to change the odds of a 0.25% rate cut by the US Fed in November.
In addition, the gold price found fresh demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel (Hamas leader eliminated)
Resistance levels: 2711.7, 2715, 2720
Support levels: 2702, 2696, 2689
Technically, gold continues its bull run once again. The chart indicates key support areas that may be of interest before further rally. A correction has been forming since the opening of the European session, but price is quickly returning to ATH. If the bulls hold the defense above 2711, the growth will continue without a pullback. Targets are indicated on the chart
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Refreshing all-time level, GOLD is eligible to continue risingAs uncertainty about the US presidential election and war in the Middle East push investors to seek safe haven assets, and the monetary policy environment that tends to lower interest rates are the main factors pushing push up gold prices.
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month, gold prices are set to gain more than 30% this year, driven by the prospect of further rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty.
Since gold does not yield interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal.
On the geopolitical side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released. During times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold.
Israel announced that Hamas leader Sinwar was dead
On October 17 local time, Israeli media quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by the Israeli army.
Earlier on the same day, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israel National Security Agency (Sin Bet) issued a joint statement saying that, according to preliminary reports, the Israeli army killed 3 Palestinian armed personnel during the attack. military operations in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces and the Israel General Security Agency are verifying whether one of them is Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Sinwar masterminded Hamas attacks on southern Israel, sparking a year-long war in Gaza.
Concerns about the future of the US government are also driving demand for precious metals. With three weeks to go until the election, polls show the two candidates tied, creating uncertainty.
On Thursday, economic data released by the United States supported the view that the economy will maintain strong growth in the third quarter. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates once next month, but they will reinforce expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, better than the 0.1% gain in August and better than expected. will increase by 0.3%.
In addition, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased last week. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 241,000 in the week ended October 12. Economists surveyed had forecast The average number is 259,000.
Bloomberg said Western investors also contributed to driving up gold prices. Western investors largely sat on the sidelines in the first half of the year as demand surged in Asia. The Federal Reserve's shift to a looser monetary policy has increased the appeal of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with their gold holdings on track to increase. 5th consecutive monthly growth in October for the first time since 2020. Longest capital flow since the beginning of this year.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has reached its target level of $2,711 after strong gains and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains.
Structurally, gold is still on a short-term uptrend, noticed by price channels, and even in the medium and long term, it is also increasing with price channels as the trend.
Once gold breaks the 2,711 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have the prospect of continuing to increase in price with the target level then being around 2,741 USD the price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension.
Regarding momentum, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up with a significant slope and has not yet completely reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead, with absolutely no signs of possible reduced corrections and showed solid upward momentum in the market.
As long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term, notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,700 – 2,688USD
Resistance: 2,711USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2738⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2744
→Take Profit 1 2633
↨
→Take Profit 2 2628
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2664 - 2666⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2660
→Take Profit 1 2671
↨
→Take Profit 2 2676
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14 - 18th: GOLD | XAUUSD Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. There is the potential for an overdue retracement, but I suspect it will be limited. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close.
Patience....
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
XAUUSD targeting 2725.Gold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Up since August 5th.
At the moment it is on a new bullish wave. The minimum extension of such waves inside the Channel Up has been +4.80%.
As a result, there is a high probability for the price to reach 2725 on the current wave.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
New news from the Middle East, GOLD gains and positive outlookOANDA:XAUUSD Reaching the target price increase at an all-time high of 2,685 USD, the haven asset continues to get stronger as the Middle East situation becomes tense again. Israeli sources say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a series of targets in retaliation for Iran's missile attack on Israel earlier this month.
US B-2 bombers have attacked weapons storage sites of Houthi rebels in Yemen in an effort to stop attacks by Iran-backed groups. US media mentioned that the US military's latest measures have disrupted the Red Sea supply chain.
The US Department of Defense announced that US military forces carried out precision strikes on five underground weapons storage sites in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
US Central Command indicated that assessment of combat damage from airstrikes in Yemen is ongoing and there are currently no civilian casualties.
Bloomberg reported that US B-2 stealth bombers attacked weapons storage locations related to Houthi rebels in Yemen.
American B-2 bombers fly to the target from Whitman Air Force Base, Missouri. This is the first combat mission of this wing-shaped stealth bomber since January 2017. At that time, two B-2 bombers flew a 30-hour round-trip mission to bomb an Islamic State training camp in Libya.
Each B-2 is capable of carrying up to 20 tons of bombs, including 80 500-pound GPS-guided projectiles. "This type comes to Vietnam in about half a day and can only be used to make rice cookers, combs, water ladles, trays, buckets, basins,... that's it."
Meanwhile, the market sees a 92.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, according to CME's "Fed Watch Tool".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has an upside target at its all-time high of $2,685 and it currently has the conditions to break this level and refresh its all-time high in the short term. A short rising price channel is formed, notably by the price channel and the nearest support is currently in the area of 2,672 – 2,660USD.
RSI points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still plenty of room ahead.
In general, on the daily chart, from technical position to space and momentum, gold is likely to increase in price in the near future. If the $2,685 level is broken gold will tend to continue rising with a target then around $2,700 as the whole price point or more like the $2,711 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The uptrend in gold prices on the daily chart will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,672 – 2,660USD
Resistance: 2,685 – 2,688 – 2,700 – 2,711USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2638
→Take Profit 1 2649
↨
→Take Profit 2 2654
GOLD reaches price increase target, outlook remains positiveUS inflation data reinforces the prospect of an interest rate cut next month. Gold prices rose more than 1% in the weekend's trading session, while safe-haven demand triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale prices, was unchanged in September, suggesting the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting the view that the U.S. Department of Labor The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month.
The report showed that US PPI increased 0% month-on-month in September, lower than the expected 0.1%, the previous value was a 0.20% increase.
Commerzbank reported that gold ETF holdings increased by nearly 95 tons in the third quarter, meaning ETFs once again contributed positively to gold demand for the first time in 10 quarters.
This week, the market will focus on US retail sales data to determine whether consumer spending will continue to be strong.
In addition, the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions are also the focus of market attention. Traders will need to keep an eye on (Empire State Manufacturing Survey; US Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, as well as data on building permits and construction starts US housing on Friday.)
In summary, although the gold market may experience volatility in the short term, in the long term, the safe haven asset gold is still the main factor supporting price increases.
Including the recent reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, attracting investors to choose gold as a haven, combined with the widespread war in the Middle East, has further boosted gold prices, because gold is considered an investment channel. safety, especially during difficult times. geopolitical conflict.
Going back a bit in history, in 1979, during the Soviet conflict in Afghanistan, the value of gold more than doubled during that period.
If Israel carries out retaliatory attacks against Iran, the gold price has absolutely enough basis to continue to surge even stronger. Previously, on October 1, Tehran fired about 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
Economic data to watch next week
Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Thursday: European Central Bank monetary policy decision, US retail sales, US weekly jobless claims: Philly Fed manufacturing survey.
Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
During the weekend trading session, gold achieved the target increase in the weekly issue sent to readers last week and the upward momentum was temporarily limited by the technical level of 2,660 USD.
If gold breaks above 2,660 USD, it will be eligible to continue to increase in price with the next target level after that at about 2,672 USD, more than 2,685 USD. Breaking the $2,660 level means that the price channel is also broken, while the Relative Strength Index pointing up with a significant slope reinforces the expectation of strong price increases in the near future.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, the bullish outlook and the technical structure for the uptrend are unchanged, pullbacks should still only be considered short-term technical corrections.
In the coming time, the main prospective trend of gold is price increase and notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD
Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2623
→Take Profit 1 2634
↨
→Take Profit 2 2639
News that the Middle East cools down brings GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted downward again in the short term after recovering and achieving the upside price target around the technical point of 2,660USD on yesterday's trading day.
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration that he is ready to attack Iran's military facilities, but not its oil or nuclear facilities.
This can be seen as a sign of Israel's restraint in retaliating against Iran's missile attacks.
According to a report by "Jerusalem Post", sources revealed that Iran has contacted Israel through secret channels, saying that as long as Israel's response is limited, Iran will consider this round of conflict to have ended. .
These two pieces of news eased external concerns about the situation in the Middle East, thereby reducing the appeal of the safe-haven asset gold and causing the upward momentum to slow down, creating downward corrections in the future. short term.
Next, traders will need to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for further hints of an impending rate cut, as well as U.S. retail sales data.
The market still sees an 88.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. Since gold does not earn interest, lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold .
However, gold will react more strongly to "future" orientations. Therefore, it is possible that even if the Fed cuts another 25bps, it will not react strongly but will be influenced by Fed officials' comments on future direction, especially Jerome Powell.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's recovery was limited after hitting target gains at $2,660. The area around the technical point of 2,660 USD has created pressure causing gold to correct downwards but it is also receiving support from the 2,634 – 2,630 USD area. Note to readers in the previous issue. Along with that, gold is also receiving support from the position of the EMA21.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, the main uptrend remains unchanged and the EMA21 level will still serve as the closest support for the uptrend.
Once gold breaks above $2,660 it will tend to continue rising with a subsequent target of around $2,672. The $2,660 – $2,672 levels form an area of resistance in the short term.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,630USD
Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2627 - 2629⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2623
→Take Profit 1 2634
↨
→Take Profit 2 2639
GOLD hits upside targets, temporarily capped by $2,672OANDA:XAUUSD continues to get stronger, reaching the short-term target level at 2,660USD and aiming for the next target levels at 2,672 - 2,685USD. Boosted by falling US Treasury yields, investors cautiously await more data that could provide a fresh assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 95.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.
Market attention will be focused on US retail sales data, industrial production data and weekly jobless claims data due out later this week.
Gold prices have risen more than 29% year-to-date, with optimism about interest rate cuts fueling recent gains. Gold prices are also supported by strong purchasing power from central banks and safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The latest news from Israel, two Israeli officials said on October 15 local time that although Israel's attack on Iran is not expected to target nuclear facilities and oil facilities, it could including missile and drone launchers, Iranian warehouses and factories, military bases, government buildings and other targets.
Iran on October 1 launched a large number of ballistic missiles into Israel, attacking Israeli military and security targets in response to a series of previous Israeli attacks and assassinations.
In security consultations involving Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Galante and other ministers, a comprehensive agreement was reached on the course of action against Iran, timing and intensity a response is possible, but the details still require final Cabinet approval before the action can be taken.
Gold itself does not generate interest, but it has the potential to increase in price during times of geopolitical and economic instability.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered and increased to achieve most short-term targets from 2,660 USD to close to the 2,672 USD area.
Temporarily, technically, the gold price is still limited by the level of 2,672 USD. However, maintaining above 2,660 USD will be a positive condition in the short term for the possibility of a technical price increase in the near future.
Once gold breaks $2,672 it will be on track to continue rising more with a target then around $2,685 or so making new all-time highs.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up from 50 and is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth in terms of momentum.
As long as gold remains within the channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, and notable intraday levels are listed below.
Support: 2,660 – 2,643USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2638
→Take Profit 1 2649
↨
→Take Profit 2 2654
BUY XAUUSD | GC | GOLDDear traders, you can buy XAUUSD | GC | GOLD with the same entry, TP and SL.
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GOLD → The target is liquidity above 2670-2685. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the local range of 2663 - 2636. There is a strong resistance and liquidity zone ahead. Bears may meet the market quite aggressively in the 2670 - 2685 zone.
The global rally is smoothly transitioning into a sideways fljt 2675 - 2604.
- Markets in China, which strongly supported gold after hints of fiscal stimulus is again facing challenges.
- Interest rates in the US should not be forgotten. The open question is “no interest rate cut” or “0.25% cut”. Will gold be able to stay bullish on the current flat under these circumstances?
- The dollar is rallying after last week's fundamental data and most likely the index's rise is not over... Fed policy makers are starting to change their mindset again and divide into 2 camps - aggressive / restrained.
- BUT! The conflict in the Middle East is cooling down from its limits. Based on the above mentioned, can we assume that the finger is hanging over the button “fix profit”????
Resistance levels: 2663, 2670, 2685
Support levels: 2645, 2636, 2623
Based on the general fundamental background, I do not yet understand the reasons that give such support to gold. There is a strong resistance zone ahead with huge liquidity. The price is in a sideways range and there are no preconditions to exit this channel yet. Most likely, the first retest of the levels ( it has been 2 weeks since the last retest ) may end in a reversal and correction
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
BUY XAUUSD / GC / GOLDHello traders, you can guy on XAUUSD/GC/GOLD at the same price, TP and SL set on the chart.
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XAUUSD Bullish Leg just started. Low risk buy.Gold (XAUUSD) gave us the short-term signal we wanted last week (October 07, see chart below) and after hitting our 2625 Target, it rebounded:
This rebound is technically the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 2-month Channel Up. If it repeats the previous Leg, then one last test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is possible before further upside, which is also illustrated by the 4H RSI fractals between the Accumulation sequences that preceded the rallies.
Based on the last two Bullish Legs, we should reach at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level before the next 4H MA50 correction. As a result our new medium-term Target is 2750.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month.
However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz.
Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves.
As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate.
In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD.
In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD.
The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz.
Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold.
In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2550
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold.
At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz.
The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month.
The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year.
This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years.
The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday.
On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery.
Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
XAUUSD Turned bullish again.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside June's Channel Up.
Its recent bearish leg has managed to find support on the 0.382 Fib and rebounded, closing today its 2nd straight green 1day candle.
This is the start of the new bullish leg and the minimum rise such a leg had inside the pattern was +7.55%.
With that in mind, buy and target 2800 by mid November.
Previous chart:
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GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day.
While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying.
On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly.
Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August.
Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%.
The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene.
OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday.
On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month.
Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack.
Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time.
US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran.
Pay attention to PPI data
US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August.
PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area.
The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term.
There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD
Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2667
→Take Profit 1 2656
↨
→Take Profit 2 2655
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2618
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
