BUY XAUUSDBuy XAUUSD as shown on the chart,
As you can notice we have our OB sat and the market just got us in, you can buy and set TP as on the chart.
Follow for more trades!
GC1! (Gold Futures)
Crude Oil - Wednesday ForecastWe have created a consolidation and formed a short term low for now
I believe price will head to these BSL targets marked in the chart.
15min FVG should stay respected with candles closing above it if revisited, preferably for price to not come back to it.
GOLD → ATH Testing. Fundamental background is favorable FX:XAUUSD continues to strengthen as the fundamental background improves. A rate cut is coming, as hinted by Powell, the dollar is poised to decline against this backdrop....
According to Powell, the Fed has "more evidence and confidence" that inflation is cooling, so they may cut rates before inflation reaches the 2% target. Traders generally believe in the continuation of the growth of the metal, technically this background is also maintained.
The price is approaching the ATH, but the liquidity behind this zone may push the price back, forming a small correction, for example to 2430-2420 before the price starts to return to 2450 before rising further.
Resistance levels: 2440, 2450
Support levels: 2430, 2420
Fundamentally and technically the background is favorable. It is worth looking for strong zones to open long trades, but it is worth paying attention to ATH, as a false breakdown could form a correction. The growth may continue rather quickly
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
This is why gold's breakout stopped dead in its tracks at an ATHThe combination of dovish Fed comments and a softer inflation report from Canada excited gold bulls enough to send spot prices convincingly to a record high on Tuesday. It was gold's best day in 4 months and closed near the high of the day. Yet it couldn't quite stretch to $2370. And here is why...
The front-month adjusted futures contract for gold rallied in tandem with spot prices, yet failed to test its own record high set in May. And until it does, I remain suspicious of runaway gains for spot gold prices. in fact, it raises the odds of a pullback for gold.
We're not looking to be bearish gold, as the breakout is solid, market positioning remains convincingly bullish without being a sentiment extreme and fundamentals support higher prices. But intraday traders should at least be aware of resistance on the futures contract, to manage their own expectations for spot gold prices if nothing else.
Gold & Silver May Rally 65% to 120% Before End Of 2025This updated research video highlights why I believe Gold and Silver are about to launch higher over the next 90+ days - into the upper ranges of my BreakAway phase. This move would represent a 20~25% move for Gold and a 35~45% move for Silver.
But the BIG MOVE won't happen till after November 2024. That's when I expect to see Gold make a large upward move targeting $3500~3750+ and Silver making a move targeting $40~55+.
Why am I so confident metals will make this aggressive move higher?
It comes down to two things.
A. If the US economy continues to be the 900-lb Gorilla compared to other global economies, then metals will become the primary or secondary hedge asset for most of the world (the US dollar being the other).
B. The turmoil related to a new US President (new policies, plans, foreign relationships) could present a very real tipping point for certain aspects of the global economy. And it does not matter if Trump or Biden wins. The reality is the world will be shifting quickly into a transition phase as we move closer to 2030.
Part of the Generational Cycle process that many people fail to understand is human psychology paired with excessive central bank manipulation over the past 20+ years. This has led to a very interesting global central bank predatory mode, which is currently playing out quite aggressively related to global currencies.
The primary hedge instruments are US-Dollar-based assets and metals. That will probably continue - but at a more significant demand rate.
All of this plays out as an incredible opportunity for skilled traders.
Go get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
XAUUSD Coming out of its consolidation and turning bullish.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a sustainable short-term rise above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is coming out of a consolidation pattern (blue) similar to December 2023 - February 2024. Both were supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and both are within the long-term 18-month Channel Up.
This could technically be the start of the 3rd Bullish Leg of this pattern. Our Target is a 'modest' 2600, which may be almost +15% from the bottom, but would still be the weakest Leg of the three.
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Crude Oil MondayCurrently we are between two Daily OB's and high probability bias isnt on the cards right now.
This means we look to intra day liquidity
The 15min +OB should be respected leading to NY open with the two EQH's as DRAW for price.
Short and Simple.
GOLD Begins Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut SpeculationsGold prices have initiated a downside movement during the early European session on Monday. Market participants appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a potential tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Our analysis indicates that the price is currently within a supply area, showing a rebound on the daily timeframe.
Commercial traders remain bearish on gold, while retail traders are holding bullish positions. Despite not having all the confirmations, we anticipate a possible drop in gold prices towards the previous demand area. The prevailing market sentiment suggests a potential for gold to continue its downward trajectory.
Moreover, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. This expectation is preventing the US Dollar (USD) from capitalizing on its modest recovery from a three-month low, adding another layer of support for the USD-denominated gold price. Typically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby boosting its appeal.
As the Fed's monetary policy outlook continues to evolve, the anticipation of rate cuts is likely to influence gold prices further. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions, along with broader market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping the future price movements of gold.
In conclusion, with the early signs of a downtrend in gold prices and the market's conviction about impending Fed rate cuts, we are poised to see continued volatility. The current supply area and the bearish sentiment among commercial traders support the case for a potential decline towards the previous demand area. Investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
GOLD → Favorable fundamental background. Will we go to 2450?FX:XAUUSD updates high to 2424 amid favorable news. Buyers are returning with the belief that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of the imminent interest rate cuts.
CPI indicates significant easing of inflationary pressures in June. Annual inflation fell to 3%, the lowest rate in a year. This report provides evidence to the Fed that inflation is easing, but most likely it is not enough for them and they will need 1-2 reports confirming the fact that inflation is under control and a move into deflation is forming.
Ahead of PPI and traders are focusing on this report as favorable data could reinforce fresh selling in the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a rise in gold prices. But, it is worth considering the unpredictability of the news in your trading.
Resistance levels: 2411, 2416, 2424
Support levels: 2396, 2392, 2385
Technically, a small correction is possible after a false breakdown of resistance, which in general may lead to testing the imbalance zone before the next growth, if the fundamental background after PPI is maintained or intensified....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400.
As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support.
On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread.
In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term.
The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points.
Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD
📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
GOLD moves closer to 2,370 USD, pay attention to CPIIn the Asian market today, Wednesday (July 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term, gold prices approached the mark of 2,370 USD/ounce.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not give a clear signal that an interest rate cut was imminent.
In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that inflation "remains above" the Fed's 2% target, but it has improved in recent months, so if the Fed wants to start cutting rates productivity, they need more good data to support its plausibility.
Powell also noted that the labor market has cooled, adding that “we now have bilateral risks” and can no longer focus solely on inflation. But Powell did not offer the dovish stance some market participants were looking for.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. This hearing was Powell's last public address to Congress before the United States presidential election.
Following Powell's congressional speech, the market's focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Recent data shows US CPI data starting to decline from unexpectedly high levels at the beginning of the year.
According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 26.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3 .3%.
When interest rates are low, the attractiveness of gold tends to increase and boost gold prices.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to try to recover from the downward correction earlier this week and is heading towards the price area that was the resistance target noted by readers in yesterday's publication, at the price point of 2,377. USD.
The fact that gold maintains price activity above 2,364USD is considered a positive technical signal. Meanwhile, once gold breaks the resistance at 2,377 USD, it will have enough technical conditions to continue towards the subsequent target level at the original price point of 2,400 USD.
In terms of the overall technical chart, gold has all the bullish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, the nearest support is noticed at the technical point of 2,364 USD and the support confluence of the price channel, Fibonacci retracement. 0.236% and EMA21 moving average.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21, the near-term technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,377 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2384 - 2382
⚰️SL: 2388
⬆️TP1: 2377
⬆️TP2: 2372
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339
⚰️SL: 2333
⬆️TP1: 2344
⬆️TP2: 2349
GOLD corrects and recovers, pay special attention to today's CPIOANDA:XAUUSD eased after a significant rise on Wednesday and started to recover in early Asian trading today (July 11).
Powell's testimony hinted at expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while investors await June U.S. inflation data to come. announced this weekend. A clearer picture of the path of US interest rates after the release of CPI and PPI data.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday local time that current monetary policy is restrained and the neutral interest rate has increased, at least in the short term. Usually when Powell talks about a higher neutral interest rate, it means a higher long-term policy rate.
Powell said policy rates have been kept high for longer than initially expected because inflation and the labor market have been slow to respond.
But Powell added that this is an issue the Fed will consider in its next policy review, which begins later this year, so it could have an impact on long-term interest rates going forward.
Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more good data is needed to strengthen his stance on loose monetary policy.
On inflation, Powell said Wednesday that he is not yet confident that inflation will fall sustainably toward the 2% target. However, there is no need to wait for inflation to drop to 2% to cut interest rates.
Regarding the prospect of cutting interest rates, Mr. Powell said the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% before cutting interest rates. Regarding interest rate cuts, no specific inflation value (standard) is noted.
The Fed has made great progress in shrinking its balance sheet, but there is still a long way to go.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the market expects a 74.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and another rate cut in December.
Market focus is now shifting to US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recent data shows that US inflation has eased from unexpectedly high levels earlier this year.
Pay special attention to CPI data that will be published at 7:30 p.m. Hanoi time today, Thursday (July 11).
If inflation data continues to shrink, this will continue to be a fundamental factor in favor of gold prices. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it will boost the Dollar and cause gold prices to face the possibility of a correction. significantly reduced.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold prices have adjusted downward after increasing significantly in yesterday's trading session, the general trend has not changed with factors supporting the possibility of price increases.
In the immediate term, sustaining above $2,364 provides gold prices with the closest support and once it breaks $2,377 it will have room to continue bullish with a target then at the 2,400 raw price point. USD in the short term.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the bullish technical outlook will not change, on the other hand, the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level suggests room for further upside. The technical side remains on the daily chart.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical points.
Support: 2,364 – 2,350USD
Resistance: 2,387 – 2,393 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399
⚰️SL: 2405
⬆️TP1: 2394
⬆️TP2: 2389
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339
⚰️SL: 2333
⬆️TP1: 2344
⬆️TP2: 2349
GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trendDuring the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day.
Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices.
Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June.
In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs.
Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group.
On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations.
Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400.
In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed.
Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD
Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409
⚰️SL: 2415
⬆️TP1: 2404
⬆️TP2: 2399
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361
⚰️SL: 2355
⬆️TP1: 2366
⬆️TP2: 2371
GOLD recovers after correction, main causes, and trendsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling sharply on Friday, once approaching $2,350 and is now reported at $2,367/oz, a gain equivalent to 0.36% on the day as of press time.
Gold prices fell more than 1% in the US trading session yesterday (July 9), due to the rise of the US stock market and profit-taking activities of investors. In addition, China, the largest consumer of gold, did not buy gold; This is the second consecutive month this year that the Central Bank of China has not increased reserves. These are the main reasons for the expectation of a downward adjustment in gold prices sent to you in yesterday's and Sunday's editions.
Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings remained unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June.
In May this year, China's central bank decided to temporarily stop increasing gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold purchase period. When China's central bank released data on buying pauses in May.
Last week's US nonfarm payrolls data showed a weak labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting interest rates. The market currently predicts a 77.1% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.
Investors this week will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, a series of speeches by Fed officials and US CPI data released on Thursday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, Gold is recovering slightly after a downward correction yesterday and overall the correction in gold prices is still limited.
During the term, the price area around $2,364 will still be the closest support, and even if gold moves below this level it will be limited by the confluence of EMA21 support and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. %, the price area is about 2,340 - 2,345USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth. Technically and intraday the trend of gold prices leans more towards conditions for bullish expectations.
Technical points will be noted again as follows.
Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,377 – 2,392 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2373 - 2371
⚰️SL: 2377
⬆️TP1: 2366
⬆️TP2: 2361
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2341 - 2343
⚰️SL: 2337
⬆️TP1: 2348
⬆️TP2: 2353
GOLD Slips Amid PBoC Buying Pause: Key Supply Zone in FocusThe price of gold attracted fresh sellers during the early European session on Monday. The precious metal lost traction following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to keep its gold buying on hold for the second consecutive month in June, as revealed by official data released on Sunday. This pause by one of the world's largest buyers of gold has put pressure on the metal's price.
From our analysis, the gold price may test the $2,405 area, where we have identified a significant Supply zone. We have set a pending order at this level, anticipating potential resistance. This Supply area is critical for our strategy, as it aligns with historical patterns and technical indicators.
Additionally, examining the seasonality of gold, we noticed that prices typically rise in August before entering a bearish period that lasts until October. This seasonal trend provides context for our current market approach, reinforcing the importance of the $2,405 Supply zone in our trading plan.
We are closely monitoring the gold price as it approaches our identified Supply area. Given the historical seasonal trends and recent market developments, we are strategically positioned to respond if the price hits this key level. Our analysis suggests that this could be an opportune moment for a trade, anticipating a potential reversal as the market reacts to the PBoC's decision and seasonal patterns.
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GOLD Prices Surge as US CPI Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut SpeculationGold prices surged following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which revealed a slowdown in inflation. This unexpected cooling of inflation has fueled market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate interest rate cuts sooner than anticipated.
The CPI data, released on Thursday, indicated that headline inflation in the US had dropped to 3.0% year-on-year in June. This figure is not only below the market’s expectations of 3.1% but also a significant decrease from the previous month’s 3.3%. The slowdown in inflation suggests that the aggressive rate hikes by the Fed over the past year are starting to take effect, reducing the urgency for further rate increases.
In response to the CPI data, gold prices hit our sell limit in the supply area, prompting us to open a short setup. Our strategy targets the next demand area as the initial objective. While there is potential for gold prices to decline further to the lower demand zone around $2,220, our current target remains at $2,340.
The bearish sentiment among commercial traders aligns with our setup, reinforcing our strategy. Commercials, who are typically large-scale market participants such as producers and merchants, continue to hold a pessimistic outlook on gold. Their positioning often provides valuable insight into market trends, and their current bearish stance supports our short setup.
As we move forward, market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s policy decisions and economic indicators for further clues on the direction of interest rates. The possibility of earlier-than-expected rate cuts could continue to influence gold prices and market sentiment.
In conclusion, the recent US CPI data has provided a significant boost to gold prices by increasing speculation about future Fed rate cuts. Our strategic short setup aims to capitalize on this movement, with a cautious eye on potential further declines. The alignment of commercial traders’ bearish outlook with our setup adds further confidence to our strategy as we navigate the evolving market landscape.
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GOLD → 2387 is key resistance, but ahead of CPI...FX:XAUUSD continues to maintain a bullish market structure, gradually pushing up to strong resistance with a breakout target. The US dollar is declining amid dovish US Fed assumptions....
All eyes remain on the US CPI report
Powell's caution on weakening labor market conditions suggested that a September rate cut is likely just around the corner, which once again brought down the US dollar along with US Treasury yields.
Softer US annual CPI data or a surprise decline in monthly inflation could confirm the September Fed rate cut and increase the chances of another rate cut in December. And vice versa...
Technically, buyers are pushing up to 2387. A break of resistance will open the way to 2400-2437. But, there could be a correction before that
Resistance levels: 2387
Support levels: 2378, 2370
Favorable news can strengthen the movement, in which case the resistance breakout is not to be missed. But, unexpected data may shake the market, the dollar may continue its strengthening phase and in this case gold will head towards 2350.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Get ready for big data, GOLD rises to retest 2,364USDOANDA:XAUUSD is mostly flat as the market awaits important news from US non-farm data to be released today (Friday). Fed rate cut expectations are based on this data. At the same time, affected by the US holiday, market trading volume decreased and gold prices found it difficult to maintain Wednesday's gains, fluctuating in a narrow range but still above 2,350 USD/ounce.
Recent U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing policy sooner than expected, but policymakers remain cautious and want to see deflation progress. further development.
Data released by the US showed initial jobless claims last week and ADP data showed private hiring activity fell in June compared to May. Additionally, US PMI data ISM service industry shows that business activities in the service industry have fallen into a decline zone.
Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said deflation had resumed but emphasized that more progress was needed before interest rate cuts could be considered.
He added: “Because the American economy is strong and the labor market is strong, we can take our time and get the job done.”
At the same time, the US Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its June meeting showing that most participants believe that current policy is very restrictive but leaves the door open for interest rate hikes.
Policymakers acknowledge that the economy is cooling and could respond to unexpected economic weakness.
Today (Friday), the United States will release its nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is expected to show that the US labor market added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May.
Of course, if NFP data declines, it will be beneficial for gold because it increases the possibility that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, making the US Dollar less attractive.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, unchanged from the previous figure, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.1 %.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, up from 63% on Tuesday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold was limited by the $2,364 level that readers noticed in the previous issue, it is now rising to test this important technical level.
In the short term, once gold breaks $2,364 it will have room to continue rising with a target then noted at the original price point of $2,400.
On the other hand, on the overall technical chart, gold still has all the technical factors for a possible price increase. With the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci point and main support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
The relative strength index (RSI) is gradually moving up but is still very far from the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is still very wide.
During the day, the technical trend leans heavily towards the possibility of an increase in the price of gold and it will be noticed by the following points.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392
⚰️SL: 2398
⬆️TP1: 2387
⬆️TP2: 2382
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336
⚰️SL: 2330
⬆️TP1: 2341
⬆️TP2: 2346
Slugging On Wednesday Crude OilSo we have continued to head south and the next target would be the Daily SSL and the Red Daily FVG.
With all the news today and it being summer month volume there could be a nice sell off towards these targets by the end of the week.
Pretty simple.
GOLD → The fight for 2365. Can we get to 2400? FX:XAUUSD is trading within an ascending channel, but traders are actively selling off all of Friday's growth. The key roll is played by the resistance 2365, at the moment bears are holding the market.
The dollar stops falling amid expected comments from Powell, as well as CPI and PPI to be released on Thursday and Friday. The fundamental background is neutral at the moment, Against this background gold is getting under correction and testing the liquidity area of 2350.
Now all the focus is on 2365, relative to which a false breakout has been formed.
IF:
sellers will hold 2365 and will not let the price above this level, we should expect a decline to 2350, 2341 and further it is worth watching the situation, because in this case the price can reach 2325.
If the buyers continue to be active and can form a consolidation above 2365, it will open a channel, the upper boundary of which will be 2387 and we can go up to it.
Resistance levels: 2365, 2387
Support levels: 2358, 2350, 2341
Two scenarios, as the situation is complicated due to the unstable fundamental background and the struggle between the participants in the key zone that divides the plane into bearish and bullish.
I would prioritize a small bounce from 2365, resistance retest, breakout and bullish momentum to 2375-2385.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USDOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply to test the $2,364 technical level as US economic data performed worse than expected, pressuring the dollar and driving gold prices higher. In addition, tensions in the Middle East showing signs of increasing also stimulate money flows into safe haven assets, and gold is the top choice.
Economic data released by the United States was weaker than expected, increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September.
Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business activity in the US services sector softened after reaching its highest level since August 2023. Along with a rise in the number of Americans filing Jobless claims and hiring by private companies were lower than expected, and employment data weakened, prompting markets to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Data released Wednesday showed that in the week ended June 29, adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States were 238,000, above market expectations of 234,000. In the week ending June 22, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits after adjustment in the US was 1.858 million people, higher than market expectations and setting a new high since November. 2021.
The ADP jobs report showed private sector employment rose by 150,000 in June, falling for the third straight month and hitting a new low since January, below the 163,000 expected by economists. forecast.
Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials at the June policy meeting had differing views on how long interest rates should remain high.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate meeting that ended June 12 showed that while "some" officials emphasized the need for patience, "some" participants especially noting that continued weakness in the job market could lead to higher unemployment rates.
According to the minutes, officials reiterated that a rate cut would not be appropriate until more data reinforced their belief that inflation was on target. Despite recent signs that some progress has been made in fighting inflation, some policymakers maintain a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation remains high.
Traders' attention turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report as US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday.
Geopolitical risks
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on July 3 saying at least 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced a missile attack in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon that day that killed a senior commander of the organization.
The Israeli army issued a statement early on the morning of July 3 confirming that Nasser, a core figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after increasing in price to reach 2,364 USD, please note that in yesterday's publication, gold is temporarily limited by this level, which is also the target price increase that For gold to open a new bullish cycle it needs to break the technical level of 2,364 USD.
Although the upward momentum of gold prices is limited, the overall picture still shows that gold prices have all the conditions to increase in price with major support except the EMA21 moving average and the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. .
As long as gold maintains its price performance above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook in the short term, and once it breaks the $2,364 technical point, gold has the potential to resume its uptrend at the target level. Initial spending is about 2,400 USD.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical points.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392
⚰️SL: 2398
⬆️TP1: 2387
⬆️TP2: 2382
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336
⚰️SL: 2330
⬆️TP1: 2341
⬆️TP2: 2346
GOLD pays attention to the main focus of the marketOANDA:XAUUSD remained generally stable as markets received information from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and continued to look to US jobs data later this week for further signals on the state of the US economy.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that there were 8.14 million job openings on January 1. Last work of May.
This is a significant increase compared to April's 7.9 million (adjusted to 8.05 million) and exceeds the market forecast of 7.9 million.
Key points from Powell's speech included his mention that wage growth is falling back to more sustainable levels, a sign that the labor market is cooling.
Additionally, he added that inflation could return to 2% by the end of next year or the year after that, suggesting inflation will be lower than expected. However, he reiterated that he hopes to see more progress before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates.
"Services inflation has generally stabilized and wage growth is returning to more sustainable levels," he said. "Wage growth remains above equilibrium and the labor market is cooling. Inflation has will probably return at the end of next year or early next year to 2%.
The focus now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will be crucial in assessing whether the US labor market remains strong amid the highest interest rates in decades. century or not.
However, data due today (Wednesday) will also have an impact on the markets, including the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as the purchasing managers index. services (PMI) from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is still trading quite stable around the EMA21 moving average, and the market still needs a fundamental impact large enough to break the current situation and give a clear trend cycle.
Technically, although gold is currently above EMA21, its ability to increase in price is limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold will have enough conditions to increase technically if it breaks the price channel and stays above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level will be aimed at 2,364USD in the short term.
On the other hand, once gold continues to be sold below EMA21 and below the technical point of 2,324 USD, it will tend to continue to decrease with a target level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term.
The relative strength index is completely flat, showing hesitation and the market has not found a specific trend.
During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is showing that the main trend is sideways accumulation with the above conditions for an increase and decrease. In the accumulation phase of the market, short-term open positions are always given priority. Technical positions will be given attention again as follows,
Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2354 - 2352
⚰️SL: 2358
⬆️TP1: 2347
⬆️TP2: 2342
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304
⚰️SL: 2298
⬆️TP1: 2309
⬆️TP2: 2314
GOLD → Correction for the purpose of elimination. Target 2400?FX:XAUUSD is forming a correction from the opening despite the bullish closing of the session on Friday. Fundamental background is calm, technical reaction to the false break of 2387.
Friday's move was formed on relatively positive economic news for gold - higher unemployment in the U.S. reinforces the dollar sell-off as the chance of a possible U.S. interest rate cut rose slightly. This week traders' focus is on CPI and PPI, which will be released on Thursday and Friday.
Technically, there is a buyer's presence in the market. MM, as consolidation and elimination of the buyer forms a correction to the liquidity zone 2364-2355. Possible consolidation or false breakdown before the subsequent growth.
Resistance levels: 2387, 2411
Support levels: 2364, 2355
Today, at 14:00 Powell speaks, it is worth paying attention to his speech. High volatility is possible. In general, the fundamental background is favorable, technically, the bull market is forming a correction to support. Emphasis on the bulls.
Regards R. Linda!
