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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD retreated from the threshold of 2,305 USDUS NONFARM PAYROLLS – OANDA:XAUUSD - The U.S. dollar and gold prices will be very sensitive to the upcoming U.S. jobs report - Market expectations suggest the U.S. economy created 200,000 payrolls in March - Strong job growth should be positive for the U.S. dollar but bearish for gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD corrected as the US Dollar recovered due to hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Kashkari warned that interest rate cuts this year may not happen without progress on inflation. He stated that if inflation trends continue to move sideways, cutting interest rates would be questionable. Kashkari finds the inflation data for January and February worrying and wants to see more progress before considering rate cuts. Kashkari is currently a hawkish representative on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but he does not have the right to vote on monetary policy this year. Gold investors are currently focused on the US nonfarm payrolls report released today. Economists predict 200,000 new jobs will be created in March. NAVIGATING THE POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS How the markets respond to the NFP data will largely depend on whether the numbers exceed or fall short of expectations: Strong Report: A surprisingly strong jobs report could signal a resilient economy, leading the U.S. central bank to hold off on plans to ease interest rates imminently. This scenario should be bullish for the U.S. dollar, but is likely to put downward pressure on precious metals like gold and silver. Weak Report: A disappointing NFP release might indicate a cooling labor market. This could bolster market expectations for earlier interest rate cuts by the Fed, strengthening the case for a June move. Such a development could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, providing potential support for gold and silver prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS On the daily chart, Gold is experiencing bearish corrections after approaching the 0.786% Fibonacci Extension noticed with the Previous Strategy yesterday and it is also above the initial notable support area about 2,265USD. If the gold price is limited to downward adjustments and returns to above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it will again have conditions to increase in price in the short term with the target level maintained at around 2,300 - 2,311 USD. Meanwhile, even if the $2,265 level is broken below, gold still has many other notable technical supports such as the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level and the main uptrend from price channel will not change. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still heavily tilted towards the possibility of price increases and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,265 – 2,250USD Resistance: 2,275 – 2,305USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD setting a new highest peak in historyOANDA:XAUUSD market continues its unstoppable trend, hitting a record high and up nearly 5% from last Friday. Gold prices continue to benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions, although the US March jobs report lent support to the USD. Gold prices reached a new high despite strong US nonfarm payrolls data. The report showed an increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. This suggests the Fed may be patient in fighting inflation. Although gold prices initially decreased, they later recovered and rose by over 1.5%. The market's short-term reaction indicates a demand for shelter. The main factors driving gold price increases are starting to take effect more and there is more room for the next price increase. Issues such as rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have increased the appeal of gold. Gold prices had their third consecutive weekly increase, after a series of recent records. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up, gold's safe-haven function will gradually become more effective. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending April 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 20,493 lots to 178,213 lots . Notable economic data & events next week Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Bank of Canada monetary policy decision Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US core PPI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: University of Michigan preliminary data on consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continuously creates new all-time highs. After gaining support from the 2,265 USD level, gold continued to break the peak and also broke the important resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.786% price point of 2,311 USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. Gold now qualifies for a new bullish cycle as the next technical level in focus could be towards the $2,356 price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. The $2,311 – $2,300 level becomes the closest support after the above break, and a bearish correction is possible only if gold manages to bring price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level, even in the case of a bearish correction. Gold price will also be limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the price point of 2,265USD. In the coming time, the main trend of gold price will still be the upward trend from price channel in the short term and price channel in the long term. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,311 – 2,300 – 2,275 Resistance: 2,346 - 2,356
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Fundamental reasons for growth. Target 2400?FX:XAUUSD has been reaching 2354 since the opening of the session amid strong excitement. The price is leaving the trend boundaries and continues to form new bullish ranges. Strong bullish trend is realized on the background of important geopolitical news, related to the crisis in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, as well as a huge interest in hedge gold. World Central Banks continue to buy gold in record volumes. Technically, gold is forming a small correction after updating the high on the back of bullish momentum from the opening of the session. There is a high probability that the growth will resume from the nearest support area or formal channel boundary. Resistance levels: 2354, 2375 Support levels: 2328.4, 2303.7, channel boundary Technically, the situation is complicated, as it is difficult to identify strong reversal zones, as the price is trading in a rally. In such a situation it is worth paying attention to support levels with the purpose of growth continuation, as well as local resistance areas with the purpose of upward breakout TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! MCX:GOLD1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
Gold rebounded after falling at the beginning of the sessionGold price today April 8, 2024 on the world market increased dramatically, reaching a new record level of nearly 2,342 USD/ounce after adjusting downward in the morning. Gold prices set a record thanks to high trading volume after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that recent data will not change the overall economic situation. The US economy continues to grow positively, experts say the Fed still maintains its view on adjusting interest rates this year. Strong money flows are flowing into gold. Technically, gold prices may decrease next week. But according to this expert, the technical chart has no meaning right now, central banks continue to buy, which causes gold prices to still increase. In addition, increasing tensions in the Middle East also boost the demand for safe assets such as gold. Strong buying by central banks and speculative activity are supporting gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Volume-Trade
GOLD new all-time high, technical area can make correctionsOANDA:XAUUSD continues to make new all-time highs, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that recent job growth data and higher-than-expected inflation data will not materially change the the general situation of economic policy this year (the Fed is expected to start its interest rate cutting cycle in June). Fed Jerome Powell Powell said that “if the economy expands as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed largely agree that lower policy rates would be appropriate “sometime this year.” ”. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data and a decline in business activity in the services sector weighed on the dollar. A slight decline in the US Dollar will create a boost for safe-haven precious metals. Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time at its policy meeting on June 11-12, although recent strong economic data has tempered expectations. Overall, it doesn't have much impact. Gold, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, has risen more than 11% year to date, thanks to strong Federal Reserve buying and demand. safe haven. Macro data The ADP report showed that U.S. private companies last month saw their biggest hiring gain since last July, led by the leisure and hospitality industry. Job growth was strong in all industries, but employment fell in professional services. US ADP employment increased by 184,000 people in March, the largest increase since July 2023. “ADP data is not a game changer.” Along with the upward revision to February's data, this is another small piece of evidence that the US economy continues to grow, which should continue to support rising yields. Even in the case of better data than gold, there is still a lot of momentum, and we can even see the dollar market and bond yields rising along with gold. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February. This is the second consecutive month of decline. continued since the index recovered in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Services inflation is also falling due to slowing demand. The survey showed that the input price index fell to 53.4 in March from 58.6 in February, the lowest since March 2020. Data last week showed inflation in the services sector, excluding energy and housing, cooled sharply in February after accelerating in January. The geopolitical situation drives the need for shelter Early on the morning of April 4 local time, the deputy governor in charge of security in Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran said that military headquarters in the province's Rask and Chabahar cities were attacked by terrorists. The terrorist organization "Army of Justice" participated in this terrorist attack. The deputy governor in charge of provincial security said that in Lask city, terrorists tried to break into the Revolutionary Guard base but were unsuccessful and the conflict is still ongoing. It is known that 3 Iranian soldiers were killed in the battle with the terrorist organization "Army of Justice". Iran blames Israel for the deadly airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday. The attack killed seven officers. Tehran on Tuesday pledged to retaliate for the attack, seen as a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war. Geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly prominent, which is beneficial for safe-haven demand, especially assets sensitive to geopolitical instability such as gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In terms of technical structure, the gold price still has all the bullish factors. All-time levels are continuously refreshed and currently gold slows down to reach the original price of 2,300 USD and the area near the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, this area is expected to create short-term corrections first. as the main uptrend continues. Since gaining support from the $2,265 level, readers noted in yesterday's edition gold has increased significantly with a break above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension making this level support. Current nearest support. The gold market is likely to receive downward corrections as the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought levels, a short-term price decline that could retest the support area of the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. In the short term, the main trend of gold price is still an uptrend and may adjust in the short term. Notable technical levels are listed below: Resistance: 2306 - 2315 - 2320 - 2330 - 2335 Support: 2297 - 2288 - 2282 - 2266
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold boom, reversal or new record ahead?Gold price today (April 9), the world market reversed and increased sharply again compared to the previous trading session. Rising demand and high expectations of investors have pushed gold prices up despite positive economic developments. A series of positive US economic information shows signs that the world's No. 1 economy is recovering well. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) still maintains its stance of tightening monetary policy until inflation falls to the target level of 2%. Market forecasts for the Fed to lower interest rates next June have decreased from over 70% to over 60%. Gold has reached multiple record highs this year, mostly in the past two months. Surprisingly, its usual negative correlation with U.S. real rates has significantly weakened, causing concern among investors. Gold prices are reaching new record highs due to geopolitical concerns and a strong safe-haven demand. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have contributed to the recent surge, and as the situation is expected to persist, the demand for gold will continue. Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Volume-Trade
XAUUSD Bullish extension expected. Unless this level breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a very aggressive (blue) Channel Up, which today hit the top of the logarithmic (dotted) 6-month Channel Up. If it is indeed symmetric with the first Bullish Leg of that Channel Up, then it is close to completing a +10.60% rise which should call for a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back. As a result we expect a quick fall to 2305 and then sharp rebound targeting 2500, for a new Higher High on the (blue) Channel Up. If however the price closes below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been supporting since February 23 2024, and Support 1 (2270), we will sell for the medium-term and target 2150 (Support 2), near the bottom of the (dotted) 6-month Channel Up, which will be a very comfortable buy entry for the long-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD in March marked a record month of increaseWorld gold price stood at 2,259 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 26 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize. The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs. BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter. In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers. Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction. THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet. Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024. Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270 Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD decreased slightly after the session set a new recordWorld gold price decreased by 3.7 USD to 2,247.8 USD/ounce. After rising sharply to a new record high in the first trading session of April, thanks to expectations of US interest rate cuts and the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, metal prices This quarter has slightly adjusted this morning. Market watchers are currently expecting the FED to cut interest rates in May or June. However, many investors are still cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in the coming months. this year and how long it will take for the FED to bring inflation to its target level of 2%. On March 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that economic growth is still strong and inflation is still higher than the target level. By June, the gold market will see gold prices increase due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED. Experts believe that, no matter how quickly or slowly the US Central Bank cuts interest rates, the agency will still reduce interest rates this year. Breakout: 2265 - 2230 Resistance: 2257 - 2175 - 2280 Support: 2245 - 2235 - 2222 - 2212
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continuously set new recordsWorld gold price stood at 2,282 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 33 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This continues to be the highest price in world gold trading history. Gold prices continue to increase sharply due to the need for a safe haven amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. The increase in strength of the USD and expectations of US interest rate cuts have almost no impact on the rise in gold prices. Gold has increased steeply, reaching a new record, although at the same time some overbought conditions appeared, leading to a slight correction. However, gold's recent declines have been insignificant in nature, as potential investors are willing to wait for better entry points. In addition, strong demand from retail investors and central banks around the world is also a factor that helps prolong the rise of this precious metal. The combination of factors has helped gold bullion prices increase nearly 10% from the beginning of the year until now.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 01 - April 05]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,163 USD/oz to 2,236 USD/oz, closing at 2,233 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to positive US economic growth in Q4 2023, although it slowed compared to previous quarters. Inflation is also decreasing, leading investors to anticipate interest rate cuts by the FED from June onwards. The forecast for March 2024 non-agricultural employment (NFP) is 198,000 jobs, down from the previous period's 275,000. If this forecast is accurate, it will support the expectation of an interest rate cut by the FED, causing gold prices to rise. However, if NFP exceeds expectations, it could negatively impact gold prices. Additionally, the tone of the Fed Chairman's speech next week is uncertain. Gold prices are expected to rise in the long term due to the slowdown of the US economy and the potential recession risks. The inverted bond yield curve indicates that the FED will likely implement three interest rate cuts this year. Central banks buying gold will also support its long-term prices. However, there is a short-term risk of profit-taking by investors, particularly ETFs. 📌According to technical analysis, gold prices are still in an uptrend and may reach $2,300/oz. If economic data is negative, prices may face profit-taking pressure with support levels at $2,150-2,100-2,080/oz. Trading plan: sell at $2,300 and buy at $2,150.
TVC:GOLD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Could NFP cause a counter-trend correction?FX:XAUUSD within a strong rally stops and forms a flat before the publication of NFP. Relative to 2288 a false breakout is formed, bringing sellers into the market. The dollar is in a correction phase, as is gold. The price is testing the local low of 2267.67 but still does not reach the strong liquidity zones of 2265, 2228, 2222. There is still a strong buyer in the market, but after the correction and the false breakdown of 2288 a seller appears. NFP is ahead, a rather important news, which can both turn the market and strengthen the current movement. It is worth paying attention to the resistance at 2288 and 2305. There is a chance to see the continuation of counter-trend correction, but before that there is a chance that a big player will drive the price to ATH before further decline to the specified liquidity areas: 2265, 2228 or to the support of the formal channel. Resistance levels: 2288, 2305 Support levels: 2265, 2228, 2222 Technical factors are not enough now to specify the key areas for opening sales or purchases, so it is worth to base on the fundamental reasons and strong resistance and support areas. TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
13
GOLD → Reached 2300. What's next, going higher or correction?FX:XAUUSD breaks records and updates the high to 2305, but technically, the implied target is still not reached. Today Initial Jobless Claims before NFP is published and the market may go into a consolidation phase. On D1 we see the dollar declining after a false break of the resistance at 104.94 as well as the downside resistance. Ahead of Initial Jobless Claims, in general, traders are waiting for neutral-negative data, the situation is still complicated, but Powell is trying to keep the market from Panic with his statements. Obviously, after the release of PMI and JOLTS data the Fed will not change the policy based on Q1 data. What is happening in the market now is emotion, but many people take it seriously. Still, we should wait for more important and factual data than just words in the air. The inflation rate in January-February was higher than in 2023, which was the reason for the panic "inflation will be even higher and rates will be held for longer". But, the latest data doesn't change the situation significantly. 2300 may become a key psychological level for gold and cool down the market a bit, which may form a correction. There are still some areas of imbalance that the market maker may test before resuming the rise to the resistance level formed on the monthly timeframe. Support levels: 2288, 2265, 2253 Resistance levels: 2300, 2325, 2337 Technically, a small correction to liquidity zones may start before further rsoot towards psychological levels COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
12
XAUUSD New Bull Cycle mapped! Approaching first Resistance Zone?Gold (XAUUSD) has technically started its new Bull Cycle after breaking above the Resistance and previous All Time High (ATH) into green overbought territory. Being overbought in such instances isn't necessarily bearish but suggests that even though the long-term trend is now heavily bullish (and should be for the next year or so), we should look for key Resistances to offer relief pull-backs. As you can see on this 1W chart, there are strong similarities of the current Cycle (both Bear and Bull) with the previous one (June 2016 - August 2020). The Bear Cycle's come in the form of Cup patterns, while the Bull Cycles start on Channel Up patterns at the bottom of the Bear ones. During the previous Bull Cycle, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported all the way from its bullish break-out (December 24 2018) until deep into the next Bear (February 01 2021). Right now the 1W MA50 has been supporting since October 09 2023, which is shortly after the dashed Channel Up started. That is an important pattern as it currently has a maximum upside to 2350 for a Higher High. The dotted Channel Up on the contrary, which was initiated at the bottom of the Bear Cycle has already touched its Higher High. This means that Gold's new Bull Cycle is facing its first significant Resistance Zone of the current run: 2300 - 2350. Relative to the previous Bull Cycle, Gold had it's first Resistance rejection on August 26 2019, making a Higher High and started to pull-back for almost 100 days (3 months). As the current bullish trend is significantly stronger than the 2019 one, the dashed Channel Up being narrower, I doubt that Gold will correct for that long, but on the next red 1W candle, we have to consider the possibility for a short-term correction. The August 2019 one pulled as low as the previous High before the rejection (bold black line). This suggests that 2220 - 2200 is Gold's floor at the moment and shouldn't be broken. Back to its overbought status, the 1W RSI gives a clear indication of that. Once it starts reversing inside an Arc pattern, we will confirm the correction we're discussing now. And after it forms systematically Lower Highs on quarterly intervals, we can expect by the 3rd Lower High to be close to the Top of the Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD → A correction before further growth?FX:XAUUSD has been forming a small correction towards liquidity zones since the opening of the session. On the background of strong bullish trend it is quite logical scenario before the news publication. The dollar index is testing a strong resistance before the news and a correction is possible, which will only strengthen the growth of gold. But, it is impossible to determine in advance what kind of news it will be (bullish or bearish for the dollar). Traders expect bullish: ADP NonFarm, ISM PMI, and bearish: SP PMI. Also, the big question is what Powell will say tonight.... Technically, gold is still in a bullish trend. And it may continue after a correction. Resistance levels: 2288, 2300 Support levels: 2265, 2253, 2228 Technically, the market is bullish. A retest and false breakout of one of the above areas could strengthen the price again. But, the structure may break when the channel resistance (as support) or 2228 is broken, in which case the correction will be prolonged to lower zones. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
4
GOLD solid gains, extending positive momentumOANDA:XAUUSD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,235. While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor. In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810. On the other hand, if the bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and look to push prices higher in the coming days and weeks, a successful breakout could add further bullish pressure, paving the way for a move towards resistance. channel at $2,255.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Gold approaches all-time highsIn the previous post on gold, we expressed our fears about the shiny metal amid a sudden spike in volatility and a slight drop in the U.S. market indices (accompanying the spike in VIX). Nevertheless, it did not take long for the volatility to falter and the fear to disappear among market participants. Quickly, the market leaped higher, and gold followed in tandem, breaking above $2,100. The overall picture improved at a fast pace, and now, gold trades merely $20 away from its all-time highs. However, as stocks and cryptocurrencies are reaching the euphoria phase, the case for a significant pullback in the two markets is growing, which could (temporarily) negatively affect gold’s performance; in our opinion, the stock market weakness is one of the biggest potential foes to gold going forward. Yet, this does not change our view of the big picture. We remain highly bullish on gold in the long term and maintain the price target of $2,300. Illustration 1.01 Volume increases alongside the price, which is normally a positive development. Technical analysis Daily timeframe = Bullish Weekly timeframe = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
5
XAUUSD: Can it really target 2,850 by the end of the year??Gold is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 80.447, MACD = 42.840, ADX = 50.847) and the reason is that since last month's (March) breakout and monthly closing above the 2020 Resistance, it started a new bullish hyper Cycle. It is overbought on the 1W RSI also (74.802) while the monthly (1M) is only a fraction away too (RSI = 69.871). This is a heavily aggressive long term trend that until its peak won't offer many pullbacks and those will be limited. This 1M chart shows that according to the 1M RSI we're where Gold was on the August 2019 breakout on the previous Cycle. Before that both patterns pulled back and held the 1M MA50 and 0.5 Fibonacci level. The rally that followed the breakout, peaked at +98.09% from the bottom (Fib extension 3.0). The current pattern is at +25% since the 1M MA50 and 0.5 Fib rebound and another +25% until the end of the year would also complete +98.09% from the bottom. Our end of year Target is exactly on that level (TP = 2,850). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this. 1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable. 2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency. 3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it. 4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances. 5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs. 6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains. 7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed. 8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed. 9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory. 10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion. 11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits. 12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades. Macro Fibonacci Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low. Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level. In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading. Historical Price Action Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for... 1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level. 2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break. 3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA. Trading Setup Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear... 1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level. 2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break. 3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support. Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path. The U.S. Dollar The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting. 1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart. 2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal. 3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel. As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery. Treasury Yields Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Long Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP Futures: (Not yet)
TVC:GOLDLong
by trade-God
4
GOLD → The market's buying back the fall. Next up, 2300?FX:XAUUSD is still very strong. The price does not react to the news properly, only as a short-term reaction. The market is quickly buying back the decline and testing resistance. Buying potential is quite strong, the probable area of the first stop could be the zone 2300-2325. On H1, an intermediate sideways range is formed after a false breakdown of channel resistance. The price defines the lower boundary as 2228 without reaching the strong support at 2222, which indicates that the bulls are very much keeping the price away from risk zones. A retest of the resistance is formed and there is a high chance to see a false breakout or a bounce followed by a correction, which may become a consolidation phase before further growth. Resistance levels: 2265 Support levels: 2228 High interest to the metal from investors, central banks favorably affect the strengthening of the metal, besides the role of hedge asset is now more than ever manifested in the market. Gold will try to break the resistance for further growth, as there is no hint of a change in the global trend COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
3
GOLD skyrocketed, the world reached a new peakThe world gold spot price is around 2,233 USD/ounce, a spike of 42 USD/ounce compared to the transaction at the same time yesterday morning. Closing last night's session, the world gold spot price in the US market stood at 2,233 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of more than 38 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of 1.74% compared to the previous session's close. Yesterday, the global financial market received more positive economic information in the US, the USD increased well but the price of gold - a capital security asset still increased too strongly to an unprecedented high. Specifically, the US announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 3.2%. First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week were at 210,000 applications, lower than the 212,000 applications forecast previously and last week. PCE price is an index measuring the price change of consumer goods and services exchanged in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing by 1.8% over the same period, much lower than the level achieved in the previous quarter. 2.6%. Thus, closing data on US gross domestic product increased compared to the same period last year, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, showing that the US economy is recovering positively. The decrease in PCE prices shows that the price of personal consumption goods has decreased, which will contribute to reducing inflation in the US. According to market rules, the USD enjoyed a very good increase in the session last night - early this morning. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased quite well by 0.28% to 104,217 points. Normally, positive economic information and the USD will cause gold prices to drop sharply. However, investors believe that when factors related to inflation decline deeply, such as PCE, it will promote the process of reducing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon. Tonight, the US will announce the PCE price index for February. Current forecasts are that all indicators of PCE in February are higher than last month. In particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. Investors will look for more clues about when to cut interest rates, as well as the health of the US economy from Mr. Jerome Powell. Currently, 71% of market forecasts are that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a series of high interest rate days in June this year. Experts say that if the PCE price index falls, it could be gold. prices will increase sharply. Because it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates soon to support the economy. If PCE increases, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates after June as forecast.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1