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GC1! (Gold Futures)

🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 18 - March 22]After increasing to 2,195 USD/oz last week, this week's gold price continuously adjusted from 2,188 USD/oz at one point to 2,150 USD/oz and closed at 2,156 USD/oz. Gold prices have increased sharply in recent times mainly due to purchases by central banks and investors buying gold in anticipation of the FED reducing interest rates next June. Therefore, the rising inflation data has reduced this expectation, causing them to sell gold to take profits to hedge against risks. Next week will be a big challenge for gold prices when the FED will meet to discuss monetary policy and make economic forecasts. Any rhetoric to push back interest rate cuts could create some selling pressure on gold prices next week. Although at next week's meeting, the FED may not continue to postpone the interest rate cut date beyond June, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid continued adjustment pressure due to the possibility of ETFs. will continue to sell gold, while investors also make similar moves to hedge against risks before the FED meeting. 📌Technically, on the D1 technical analysis chart, the price is starting to show signs of a correction, and this correction may find its way back to the support area of 2090-2100, around the 50 Fib mark of the Fib Retracement, also around moving average EMA34 D1. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2200, buying around 2090.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Starting a new Mega Cycle. One last pull-back in order?Two weeks ago (March 07 2024, see chart below) we explored the possibility of Gold (XAUUSD) starting a new cyclical Mega Rally on the 1W time-frame after the recent bounce on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line): This has turned out to be the reality as Gold closed a 1W candle above the Resistance Zone. That is the first signal of the start of the new Mega Cycle and it will get confirmed if the price closes a 1M candle above the Resistance Zone in 10 days time, which is at 2150. If not, one final test of the 1W MA50 before a new All Time High (ATH), may be in order. Until then, we need to consider the implications shown on the 1D time-frame, where the dominant pattern is a Channel Up. As you can see, the current Bullish Leg has so far repeating the previous one very closely and we are at the (blue) Channel Up stage that may price the new Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous High. The 1D MACD invalidating a Bullish Cross, confirms that we may be in a similar situation as on April 04 2023. As long the 2145 Support holds, we expect 2260 as a Higher High, which should of course close the 1M candle above the Resistance Zone, indicating that the new cyclical Mega Rally may start earlier, without a 1W MA50 (red trend-line) pull-back. If however the 2145 Support breaks, the above gets invalidated and we will have a sell confirmation. In that case, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the Internal Higher Lows trend-line (as on June 29 2023) with 2035 as our Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD had its first weekly decline in 4 weeksGold prices stabilized on Friday (March 15) but recorded their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts after data this week showed pressure. price increases. At the end of the trading session on March 15, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,159.99 USD/oz. This week, the gold contract lost 0.8%, recording the first weekly decline since mid-February 2024, after reaching a record high of 2,194.99 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts retreated 0.3% to 2,161.5 USD/oz. This week's data shows that CPI consumer prices in the US increased stronger than forecast in February and PPI producer prices also show that inflation is somewhat stable. Gold is already pricing in any positive boost it can get from expectations that interest rates will fall… if inflation starts to rise again, that means policymakers will have to maintain Tighter monetary policy for longer periods of time. Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, thereby putting pressure on gold. Non-yielding precious metals are also used as an inflation hedge. The USD index saw its strongest weekly increase since mid-January 2024, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD → Waiting for the news. What are the odds of a fall ↓ ?FX:XAUUSD is trading under resistance pressure. The market is still forming a downward correction channel after a strong rally. Ahead of important news that will determine the medium-term outlook. The price is testing the correction resistance, but at the same time sellers are still holding the market back. Buyers do not let the price go beyond 2145-2150, thus a bearish pattern like a descending triangle is formed on the chart. The market still has a chance to break the support and this set-up has a high probability. The news is coming and everyone is waiting for what Powell has to say about the rate and inflation. His words may determine the medium-term outlook for the market. Resistance levels: 2160, 2163 Support levels: 2152, 2144, 2125 I am still inclined to believe that we have a fall ahead of us (globally - false breakdown of 2145-2150). Before that, on the background of news, the price may retest the resistance. The main prospective target is the price decline on the background of strengthening of the dollar index. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
22
GOLD → Correction + bearish set-up. What to expect from XAU?FX:XAUUSD is being held very tightly within the downward correction channel. The fundamental background on the market is weak, at this time the dollar is growing, which in general negatively affects the price of metal. Set-up on H4 shows us a strong resistance on the market. In general, this is due to the negative fundamental factor because of the economic news, which generally supports the dollar index. There is a pattern forming on the chart that could break the support formed in December 2023 (2145-2150) In this case a false breakout could occur. Statistically, the strongest moves occur after a false breakout. A breakout and consolidation below 2145-2150 may initiate a strong decline to the liquidity areas indicated on the chart. Resistance levels: 2156, SMA Support levels: 2144, 2125, 2100, 2075 I expect a retest of 2145-2150 with a bounce. If the price quickly returns to this support, the chances of a breakout will then increase. Fundamentally and technically, the gold market is showing weakness, so we should expect a negative scenario at the moment TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
GOLD → The correction continues. Test of strong support FX:XAUUSD continues to form correction. Price has been breaking through support since the open and is testing the key liquidity area formed on Dec. 4 $2,145 - $2,150 Overall, the price is not ready to go above the made high. Yes, there was an earlier breakout of the resistance level from December 2023, but there seems to be pressure from the resistance side of the market, this could be due to a strong seller or still no buyer. The candlestick setup indicates that the market is getting ready to go back beyond 2145-2150 and head towards lower zones like 2125, 2100, 2075. On H1, a bounce is forming within the descending channel, the price may test the moving average zone or even the resistance zone of the channel before resuming the decline. Resistance levels: 2156, 2162, 2172 Support levels: 2144, 2125 I expect a retest of resistance or moving averages after which the correction will resume. But the breakthrough of 2145-2150 may turn into a change of the local trend TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
4
Gold price coils furtherOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis and Chart - Gold trading on either side of $2,165/oz. but a break may be near. The latest US PPI data – wholesale inflation - came in above market expectations, and last month’s print, but the dollar and US rate cut forecasts, remain little changed. US Retail Sales in February picked up, turning positive, but again missed market forecasts. With the greenback barely moving, gold has found it difficult to make a move, one way or the other. This period of consolidation is starting to look like a new bullish pennant formation, although it will need another couple of candles to see if this plays out. If this pattern is formed, gold is likely to push further ahead and make a fresh record high. Support is seen at $2,148/oz. ahead of $2,128/oz. Retail trader data show 40.95% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.91% higher than yesterday and 6.62% higher than last week. On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible. Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance: 2170 - 2175 - 2185 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Setting and background foreshadowing the decline FX:XAUUSD is updating the global maximum. The distribution stops. The market goes into correction state. But, what is also interesting, a setup is forming on the chart, foreshadowing a support breakout. Let's briefly discuss the current situation in gold, without a long rant. The upcoming week is full of news. FED & FOMC meetings and Powell's speech are the ones to pay attention to, as inflation, interest rate and other nuances that determine the medium-term outlook may be discussed. Technically, gold is entering a correction phase. If we take a closer look at H1, we can see a descending triangle pattern. The character of the pattern is "support breakout, reversal and decline". This pattern can be interpreted as the presence of a strong seller or the absence of a buyer. Resistance levels: 2160, 2166, 2173 Support levels: 2155, 2147, 2100 The market is waiting for a correction, which is evidenced by the fundamental background, technical analysis and candlestick patterns. There is a high probability that the support may be broken with the subsequent correction towards the mentioned liquidity areas CAPITALCOM:DXY MCX:GOLD1! COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
GOLD turning down after a series of "shocking" increasesFORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – MARKET PSYCHOLOGY Retail trading activity shows a net short bias in gold, with the ratio between bearish and bullish positions currently at 1.47:1 as of late Tuesday afternoon. Overall, bullish bets on precious metals are 9.67% lower than yesterday and 12.80% lower than they were popular a week ago. Meanwhile, bearish bets are down 0.31% from the previous session and 13.15% higher than last week. Gold prices declined in the context of the latest report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.2% over the same period last year, higher than experts' forecast of an increase of 3.2%. first%. The core CPI in February increased by 3.8% compared to the expected increase of 3.7%. In the medium and long term, the Fed will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. However, gold prices have increased very strongly since the end of 2023 and in the first 2 months of 2024. The possibility of gold prices continuing to skyrocket is no longer highly appreciated. Recently, many forecasts say that gold will increase in the second half of the year but at a slow pace. Most likely, gold price will reach 2,200 USD/ounce. In the short term, gold may face selling pressure to take profits. Although optimistic about gold's prospects, investors should be sensitive to the market's current speculative position. Speculative traders can reverse their positions very quickly if the market begins to turn. Resistance: 2170 - 2181 - 2190 Support: 2145 - 2137 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD → Retest of resistance before further decline FX:XAUUSD continues to trade within the counter-trend correction channel. Another resistance retest is being formed, and the market is under pressure from the resistance. Gold has a neutral-negative fundamental background due to a wave of positive news in the US market. The dollar is strengthening a bit, which generally forms a resistance pressure on the gold. At the same time GOLD-ETF sell-offs continue. Technically, on H1 the price is testing the resistance of the descending channel, the fundamental background is negative and most likely, the decline may continue from the upper boundary of the channel. The market maker may form a false breakdown of resistance before further decline. Resistance levels: 2175 Support levels: 2144, 2125 There are no reasons for growth continuation. Funamental and technical factors indicate a high probability of further decline. There is no news today, the market should be more or less calm. COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NCDEX:GOLD TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
GOLD rally will continue amid aggressive US interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS AND CHART - US rates markets fully price in a 25 basis point in June. - The path of least resistance for gold remains higher for now. The latest Fed commentary has led to financial markets pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. Three more rate cuts are also expected in 2024, with a high likelihood of a fourth cut. It's time for the US central bank to take action. The US economic calendar has important releases next week, with the US inflation report on Tuesday being the most notable. The latest comments from the Federal Reserve indicate that they are satisfied with the current disinflationary trend. A significant increase in either of the year-on-year inflation figures would be needed to alter or postpone the Fed's plan for interest rate cuts. The daily gold price chart is moving higher into new territory. Despite being overbought according to the CCI indicator, the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently risen from the previous day's closing price, making it challenging for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief period of consolidation with solid support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD US inflation previewUS CPI PREVIEW – OANDA:XAUUSD , US DOLLAR, STOCKS - The February’s U.S. inflation report will steal the spotlight on Tuesday morning - Any deviation of the official data from market expectations could trigger volatility Tuesday marks an important day for investors of all stripes as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February’s consumer price index survey, a key report that is anticipated to provide fresh insights into recent inflation dynamics and guide the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy outlook. In terms of projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.4% last month, bolstered by higher energy costs. This result would have kept the annual rate unchanged at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core gauge is seen increasing 0.3% m-o-m, leading to a minor downshift in the year-over-year reading to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%. US INFLATION TREND Focusing on the market response, official figures that closely align with Wall Street’s consensus estimates wouldn’t generate much volatility or alter sentiment in a meaningful way, but any large deviation in the CPI data relative to what’s priced-in could trigger large price swings across assets. For this reason, traders should closely track the economic calendar tomorrow morning. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR KEY ASSETS > UPSIDE SURPRISE (HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI) A hotter-than-expected CPI report would confirm that January’s upside surprise was not a one-off event, but an indication that inflation may be reaccelerating and will be harder to defeat. Such an outcome might compel the Fed to revise its PCE forecast upward and potentially reduce the number of rate cuts envisioned for the year at its March meeting. This scenario should spark a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, pushing bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher. In response, gold prices and stocks could come under strong selling pressure. > SUBDUED REPORT (LOWER-THAN-FORECAST CPI) Cooler-than-forecast CPI readings would bolster the idea that last month’s data was an anomaly and that progress on disinflation continues. This could give the Fed greater confidence that inflation is on a sustained path towards the 2.0% target, validating the market’s outlook for multiple rate cuts in 2024 and the start of the easing cycle in June. In these circumstances, we may witness further retracement in yields and the U.S. dollar in the days and weeks ahead. This could inject fresh bullish momentum into gold prices and risk assets. Gold is consolidating around $2,180/oz. in early trade and may well move further higher. The daily chart is positive and the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Again with gold in all-time territory, accurate price predictions can be difficult. Big figure resistance at $2,200/oz. may come into play shortly. Breakout + Test: 2185 waiting for Entry Buy Breakout + Test: 2175 waiting for Entry Sell Resistance: 2200 - 2205 - 2225 Support: 2175 - 2163 - 2151 - 2146 - 2137
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Rally halted, price preparing for correction FX:XAUUSD is in the correction phase. A range between 2195 and 2145 is forming. On the local timeframe, the expected correction range is formed, and at this time the price is testing the psychological resistance level. The growth of gold stops. The price does not reach 2200. Obchms are declining, price is forming a consolidation or even a trading range. On H1 the price broke the support of the local ascending channel, which may start the correction to 2144. Another retest of the resistance zone or a false breakdown before further decline is possible. Below 2144 there is a liquidity area formed, which is of interest to the market and the price may test this area in the near future. Today at 12:30 GMT we are waiting for news that may give us a medium-term potential. Resistance levels: 2175, 2185, 2195. Support levels: 2157, 2144 Before the news, the price may test the resistance, but it would be logical to see further correction at these liquidity areas TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD NCDEX:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
9
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 11 - March 15]This week, international gold prices have continuously increased sharply, from 2,079 USD/oz to 2,195 USD/oz and closing at 2,178 USD/oz. Gold prices rose sharply as the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February 2024, surpassing expectations. However, there were downward revisions to job numbers in January and December. The unemployment rate in the US also increased from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. Concerns arise about potential downward adjustments in future employment data releases. The US labor market seems to be starting to absorb the blow from the FED's continuous monetary tightening. This causes the market to increase expectations that the FED will start cutting interest rates next June. US inflation has decreased but slightly exceeded expectations. FED Chairman Powell is satisfied with the current data but wants more confirmation before cutting interest rates. The upcoming February CPI announcement will be closely watched. A higher than expected CPI may reduce rate cut expectations and lead to profit-taking by gold investors, while it could also increase gold prices further. While gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term, they may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking before resuming their upward trend. 📌Technically, the gold price is in wave 5 of the Elliott wave model and could reach a target range of 2300 Fibo 361 to 2600 Fibo 461 based on Fib Extension milestones. It is difficult to predict the record high price without more information, so we need to wait for time to provide an answer. This week, the weekly fluctuation range is over 100, and the trading plan for next week includes selling near the 2300 resistance mark and buying if the price adjusts back to the 2100 resistance mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the Channel Up on our last signal (March 04 2024, see chart below) and almost hit the 2200 Target: It may be time to take profit on the break-out buy as the Bullish Leg since the February 14 Low is so far in perfect symmetry with the previous that peaked on December 04 2023 and potentially with the one before that peaked on October 27 2023. Both pulled-back to at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, the December one even as low as the 0.786 Fib. Even March 20 2023 even pull-back to the 0.382 Fib. With the 1D MACD about to form a Bearish Cross (all previous ones were a Sell Signal) and the price being near the top of the wider Channel Up, Gold flashes the strongest sell signal in months. Target 1 is 2115 (Fib 0.382) and if we close a 1W candle below it, then re-sell with Target 2 at 2030 (Fib 0.786). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
1
GOLD → Liquidation of sellers could trigger a fall. Target 2100?FX:XAUUSD stops after a strong rally. A new ATH = 2195 is formed, after which the market starts the correction phase. The support 2175 is broken and the price tests 2150. There is a probability of continuation of decrease but after resistance retest. The fundamental background has been maintained since Tuesday. Yesterday we got CPI positive for the dollar, which temporarily strengthens the index and negatively affects the gold. After the 2175 breakout, the market gives us a move of almost 240 pips. Fundamentally, there is no important news today, so the market is influenced by yesterday's data. On H1, consolidation is forming below 2161. Buyers are trying to buy back the fall, but sellers do not let prices go above 2165. In this case, the most likely scenario may be a shakeout (false breakdown of 2165) and liquidation of sellers before a further decline to 2144 - 2100. Resistance levels: 2165, 2175 Support levels: 2144, 2125, 2100 The correction phase is most likely not over yet. The price may test the resistance before a further decline with a negative fundamental background TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NCDEX:GOLD Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
GOLD → High readiness for correctionFX:XAUUSD is consolidating above 2175, but at the same time a descending triangle is forming. Theoretically, price should break support, which will form a false break of 2175. On D1, volumes are declining, price is stopping after a strong rally. On H1, support 2175-2175 is formed and price has been squeezing towards support for a few hours, which increases the chances of a support breakout. But! If buyers do hold this area, the price may test the local high or 2200 before further declines. The dollar index is forming a correction from support, which is giving a corresponding reaction in the gold market as well. A descending triangle is forming on H1. A break of the support at 2175 will give an impulse to the lower levels. Resistance levels: 2185, 2195, 2200 Support levels: 2175, 2161, 2144 I expect correction after the false breakdown of 2175. Consolidation of the price below the level will give confirmation that the market is ready to correct TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
20
GOLD still soaring despite positive employment figuresThe world gold spot price is around 2,179 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of nearly 19 USD/ounce compared to yesterday's trading session. The international financial market last night received more positive information about the February employment report in the US. Specifically, according to the US Department of Labor in February 2024, the non-agricultural sector created 275,000 new jobs, much higher than the previous prediction of 198,000 new jobs; higher than the adjusted figure of 229,000 new jobs in January. Only the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, remaining at 3.7% for the first time in 4 months. The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%. Average earnings per hour worked in February, a key measure of inflation, decreased slightly with wages rising 4.3%, lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%, an increase of only 0.1 % compared to January. Thus, the February employment report in the US was quite positive. Although the unemployment rate increased, the number of employed workers remained stable. Normally, positive employment data will help the USD strengthen and gold will decrease in price. However, this time is different, the conflict in the Red Sea has "heated up" again with the Houthi attack on the True Confidence ship, killing at least 3 crew members on March 6, despite The US naval coalition is there. This has caused the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal area to decrease sharply. The Houthi attack on commercial ships caused a crisis in the transportation of goods across the Red Sea and it will take several months, or even longer, to overcome. Manufacturing, trading and transportation businesses have to spend higher costs to meet international orders. This significantly affects the production and business activities of enterprises, as well as the growth of economies. Increased risks have caused investors to continue buying gold to preserve capital and seek profits.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → 2200 is unaffected. Are we close to a correction?FX:XAUUSD has been trading quietly since the opening of the session, but after a strong growth the price starts to stop. 2195 - 2168 actual consolidation. It is necessary to follow the reaction of the price to the flat boundaries. The market today without news, trading can be quite calm. The dollar index is testing a strong support area, the shadow of Friday's candle indicates a possible correction. Gold may react the same way. The price of the metal after a strong rise stops, resistance begins to appear in the market. Bull Run cannot last forever, the market maker can reverse the local price movement with the purpose of liquidation. It is worth paying attention to the support at 2175, 2161, 2144. The break of the structure of these zones may start the correction phase. Resistance levels: 2194, 2200 Support levels: 2175, 2168, 2161 I expect a correction, which may come either when the mentioned support lines and liquidity zones are broken or after the test of 2200 CAPITALCOM:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
2
GOLD → Test 2200. Should we wait for correction to 2150 - 2100?FX:XAUUSD in the distribution phase updates highs to 2195. Price enters resistance zone while the dollar index gets a dose of negative news and high inflation. CPI, Core retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and PPI are worth watching in the coming week. Also, quite a few FED & FOMC speeches after Powell's two day speech that said nothing new. The dollar index is testing a strong liquidity area, the price may react with a bounce upwards, which will give a corresponding reaction for forex and gold. Gold is breaking out ahead. A range between the psychological target of 2200 and the previous ATH of 2150 is forming. The probability of seeing a correction from the upper boundary of the expected range is quite high, as the bull run cannot be permanent. The interest to the metal is very high on the background of weak geopolitics and also the inflow of capital on the background of outflows from ETFs. Gold is not falling yet because of the continuing strong demand from the Central Banks of emerging countries, but at the same time the market maker may organize a liquidation. Based on the H1 chart, the price is aiming to test 2200-2225, which is a psychologically important target. The price is behaving quite strongly, volumes are growing. Consolidations are formed with continued distribution. There are no pullback zones and strong enough support areas. But, a retest of the local resistance with the subsequent correction is also possible. But the nearest supports should be treated with caution. The local growth of the dollar may provoke a breakout of gold support, which may activate the sell-off phase TVC:DXY MCX:GOLD1! TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
12
GOLD sets new peak, be cautious in speculative buyingGold prices broke records this week, reaching $2,150/ounce. The strong recovery was fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields on bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting borrowing costs sooner than the Federal Reserve proposed. policy makers. While Fed Chairman Powell has signaled that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates and will need more evidence that inflation is approaching 2.0% on a sustainable basis before pulling the trigger, the Traders remain skeptical and are betting on an easing cycle starting as soon as June, partly due to a resurgence of the regional banking crisis. The divergence between Powell's message and market expectations appears to be driving bond yields lower, reinforcing the appeal of bullion. In this context, the yellow metal tends to rise when interest rates fall, as this reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. In any case, Friday's key US nonfarm payrolls report will be the final arbiter for Wall Street and the Fed. Economists predict the US economy will add 200,000 jobs in February, but cannot rule out the possibility of a bullish surprise as recent jobs data has consistently come in above estimates. A strong jobs report could vindicate Powell's relatively hawkish stance, causing traders to ease dovish bets on the FOMC's policy direction. This scenario will weigh heavily on gold prices. Conversely, weak jobs growth could bolster confidence in an early rate cut, sending the precious metal even higher. FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices surpassed December's peak of $2,150 this week, setting a new all-time high. If this bullish breakout holds in the near term, the bulls may gain the confidence to mount an attack on the trendline resistance at $2,185. Despite bullion's positive technical outlook, caution is still needed as overbought conditions could lead to a market reversal. That means, if the sellers return, all eyes will be on the $2,150 level. Below this area, there is a lack of significant support until the $2,090 level, increasing the risk of a deep retracement in the event of a breakdown. Further down, the focus turns to $2,065, followed by $2,040.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading