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Gc1!short

GC Future Analysis, It's under the VWAP!!GC Future is showing decreasing trend today. The pitchfork indicator shed light on the hallway that limit the trend of GC. Moreover, the price has broken the range of equilibrium with an important Candlestick chart (Break Point). Currently, the price evolution is under the VWAP indicator, so it seems the market is going down. However, we should pay attention to any trend’s change in case we have a break of the pitchfork hallway, or a VWAP break with high level of volume.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by oualidskh
ridethepig | Gold Failing At The Highs...Gold undershooting at the 2012 highs are failing to clear 1700 by crumbs was screaming signals that the market was exhausted, and that it would take more than a coronavirus pandemic to move higher. Notice the size of the wick with all the profit taking place it produced a bearish monthly (and weekly) pattern: The handbrakes have been pulled, Central Banks are co-ordinated the response with PBoC, BoJ and RBA moving first, now eyes on ECB, FED and BOE next... momentum in the move towards the topside is running out and a pullback is necessary before anything else can be resolved. After an abrupt end to the "Santanomics"... Here expecting the pressure to continue on buyers in March. A break of the Yellow trend-line at 1550 will unlock the 1450 lows. I am targeting 1540 this month with Q220 targets located at 1450. Best of luck all those on the sell side in Gold, we will not be covering the fundamentals as it has been widely spoken and discussed in the previous charts. ...Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Gold Highs Of The Year? Smells Like It...Part I - Chapter 1 The Gold Swing 1. General remarks => The base of the swing => The idea of two clashing forces After the impressive leg: ...we have a completed Gold swing trade. The legs A, B and C are individual moves in the swing; a zigzag should be considered a retrace and in this case while inside a second wave that serves a function for the medium and long term macro chain. So the bottom of the swing, which we traded together below live here, will be called the base. Every retrace swing, in other words every ABC sequence running diagonally across the currency board meshes flows together, it divides the market incrementally into blocks, which are consisting of bids and offers opposing each other. For the sake of convenience, we will dig deeper into the basing process: The diagram illustrates an example of a transition in direction. The idea of building a swing Before you tackle what follows, you should walk forward and check that you are well versed in the ideas concerning Gold and event risk. If not you should refresh your memory here because this is necessary in order to understand what will follow. The question we need to answer if we 'know' our direction is up: after ABCDE and for as long as 1700/10 does not advance, Sellers have the possibility of directional change and can move here. Sellers did not disappear just because of coronavirus, or mediocre risk. No, they must still be there, in a macro sense from the Gold peak in 2011 which coincided with the transition towards BTC and negative rates via ECB & BOJ. Gold above all is a retail market, and the boat is fully loaded towards one side with markets trading as if the plague is here. Well, we all know what happens when markets exhaust and dislocate from reality. The powerful urge to continue hedging with risk will only expand, and thus what I have modelled are inflows into BTC to outperform Gold. Towards the breakout The ease of movement (in terms of capital) must be taken into account, the demobilisation between BTC and Gold will come from the inability to move large sizings of Gold around without raising flags anymore. BTC can advance and take full advantage of this handicap Gold now wields. Should buyers try to push Gold any higher here by attempting a breach of 1700 for the 3rd time (it will present yet another selling opportunity), my strategy remains to reunite with the sell side around currently levels in Gold and recommend those who are still long to start rounding up troops. Attacking the swing The attack from the base in Gold is both fundamentally critical and technically valuable for the logical justification of transitioning away from a commodity driven currency and more towards digital money. I have to attribute to myself the honour of having made a killing in the latest Gold rally, because the price drivers kept telling us to load more. It was not about the direction of the swing, but purely and simply about how cheap could we buy. The main thing is that the buyers from these lows should now be restrained! What was at that time my most revolutionary position (one to which I have come across by intensive work on the issues of reflation). Smart money realises that BTC is deflationary and will weigh heavy on Gold (traditionally inflation up was bullish for Gold). Critics will scream about how they knew it was overstretched... pull the trigger! That's the play! So, here is the chartpack mentioned above from the well-known @ridethepig tradingview portfolio, which I present in its entirety, with no changes and not a word in my own defence. I make only the comment well done all those who were long Gold from 1205, 1250, 1305, 1350, 1400, 1450, 1500, 1550 and even those greedily playing 1600. A flawless move that is now time to take profits and switch sides !!! Marking the highs as a strategic necessity Sweeping the highs in this nature towards 1700 in the opposing direction only happens in unsustainable rallies on a short-term sentiment belief in panic. This essentially reduces the sustainability towards the rally... we are almost at a 90 degree angle !! Recognising exhaustion comes from experience, it is cramping our enemy (late buyers in this case) and attacking it can be formulated as follows: Any traps should never be started with haste when direction changes are involved... The struggle for transitions and picking tops is one that retailers have struggled with and can talk about till the cows come home. The transition should first be aimed at forming a base (or in this case a top) by insisting and threatening to achieve denial of the highs (invalidation, rejection etc). So according to the rule, flows should immediately start to unwind as buyers reach their final targets and smart money should attack aggressively and that should be by 1680/1675, because the highs are more of an aesthetically pleasing ornament. After marking the highs, sellers will have different possibilities to plan and can see which path is clearest if buyers play somewhat naively, as though they have no idea that technology is deflationary, something like: That is the logical knee-jerk profit taking and positioning swing we need to develop: firstly the big exhaustion, and now the tree is shaken, smart money see's this miles in advance! Just like the hero in the films, stubborn traders will continue to buy, very simple. Those nimble enough can take the first one and knock him out, then turn to the next barrier and beat the living daylights out of them! Before gold bugs realise what is happening, the technical blow will be to severe ... Stay long BTC.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
22
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.06A very good time to update the Gold chart after a huge gap up for the open forr the first swing target. Sadly no surprises via risk ticking higher and providing the catalyst in completing these flows: In my books, markets are happy to continue trading the same USD devaluation flows which will keep Gold supported via reflationary hedges even if (highly unlikely) risk passes away in the immediate term. This will keep Gold supported and allow the climb towards 1700 to continue after some minor profit taking at the 61.8. For those following the strategy we covered previously, you will know the breakout has been flawless ever since finding key support at the 1440x lows: With Santanomics in full swing and reflationary risks around the corner I stick to my average forecast of $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final technical target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Tracking the relative breakout vs SPX closely: Lastly on the mining side: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
3
Gold get through target! next stop $1550? Pullback first...Gold has taken a shine to the holidays, while equities were strong, gold was not shy on the upside in the slightest. We were targetting the next resistance level at $1543 then $1550 ultimately. However on the rise up we saw that the volume through resistance levels was pretty weak so that cements our pullback idea a little more. The drop could bring price down to two main levels, based on the current $1530 stall area and $1543 resistance. The first pullback area is $1510-1512 based on fibs and also the market structure impulse support. This is the more likely scenario of the two. The next pullback level is at $1500-$1505 this is a little less likely, based on the cluster of fib levels. Ultimately we expect the upside to continue throughout the beginning of the year. We are looking for a short term short idea, while a medium-term move higher on the commodity. This idea is for educational purposes, it does not constitute as investment or trading advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TRADEPROAcademy
2
ridethepig | Gold & the "Santa Rally"Uncertainty around reflationary fears will add upside risks to prices in Gold for 1H20. Gold remains bid since the start of November, despite risky assets continuing to gain ground. CB's have been buying 20% of the Gold supplies, the same rate circa Nixon era, all whilst mainstream media paints the geopolitical landscape with a more constructive backdrop, any signs of complacency or gusts of wind from risk will likely drive more flows on the demand side in Gold from retail. We are finally getting the breakout: As widely covered here before, the physical Gold market remains incredibly resilient and first targets come into play at 1595: Expecting another relative breakout versus S&P in 1H20: On the mining side : Yields: For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, reflationary risks are around the corner!! After months of choppy waters , finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork as we begin the flows towards 1650. I stick to my average forecast of $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
6
Gold: Technical & Fundamental SHORT to $1420Gold recently held the broken support as resistance at $1475 and moved lower well. There is an indication that it could slide through the support structure immediately at $1457 and then $1445. Both Fundamentals and Technicals show a weaker gold market. The wicks that formed at the $1475 resistance mean that the sellers are strong and not to mention the volume on the swings lower was strong than any rally. The market has recently formed a month-long downward channel that we expect to hold and break to the downside. The bottom end of the channel and target is $1420, below that a slip through could bring gold down to $1380. From a fundamental standpoint, the gold price is correlated inversely to the USD. The USD price movement is based on the Federal Reserves Monetary Policy. The Fed no longer has a mega dovish stance, and just because of that in the short term we can see a stronger USD into the new year. This puts downside pressure on the gold market. Helping the bears come in on strong volume.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TRADEPROAcademy
Short Gold (GC1!): My 5 Reasons to Take a TradeHere's my idea to go short on gold (GC1!). This is a daily chart. First, I always need 4 independent reasons to take a trade. They are as follows ... 1. Location - Is the price in the correct location? In general, I price must be in the bottom of a range for a long, and at the top of a range for a short. 2. Market Structure - Is there a double top with a breakout? I need to see a 'M' like structure in price. 3. Momentum - Is there a divergence in MACD? This is one sign that a reversal in trend is around the corner. 4. Volume - This is paramount. I need to see a bullish trend in volume if I am going long, and vice versa for short positions. And when I am trading commodities, I need a 5th reason - the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report. In short, I need to see signs that institutions (large speculators) are going long when I am thinking long and going short when I am thinking short. So, do we have our 5 reasons for GC1!? Let see ... We have ... 1. Location: We are above value in the Volume Profile. In other words, we are near the top of a range, right after the Cup and Handle target. 2. Market Structure: We see a double top with a breakout 3. Momentum: We have MACD divergence. That's it. What are we missing in? Volume: Let's wait until the volume make an 'M' under the green trendline. CoT Report: Let's wait until we see a sign of large speculators (red line) loading up on short contracts. For this, I'd like to see further downward stair action. Now, I only take trades where the minimum reward-to-risk ratio is 2:1. The 'M' gives us a nice framework for when to exit (stop loss) our trade. I am risking to the lower leg of the 'M'. Here, we can even have a 3:1 reward/risk. Why? For our target profit, I just extend the R/R tool so 3:1 and see if that is a reasonable area to expect the price to go. Is it reasonable, in this case? 3:1 profit takes us to: - A cluster of support and resistance - Middle of the Volume Profile These are two areas are where price often settles too ... so we're good for our target :) That's it. We have 3 of our 5 reasons. Let's wait for the other 2 to come in, and then it'd make sense to go short on gold.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by realcapmillen