Gold (GC) Falling Wedge 1h- Falling wedge with fib extensions up to price targets of 2697 and 2730
- SL would be breakdown of wedge and failure to reestablish
Gc1
GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money...
keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset
and truly the only real collateral in the world.
Is being slowly lost.
We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching.
But something to note
Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars
The smackdown has been quick and violent.
If you noice in the past few weeks,
the compression of price ,
and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k.
Is the most it has ever been.
Are the Bankers ready to let it run...
since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election.
I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
GOLD → The safe asset continues to be bullrun ↑FX:XAUUSD does not react properly to the growth of the dollar. The metal continues to renew highs and seeks upward. There is no resistance ahead and the geopolitical backdrop is blowing a favorable wind....
Gold is holding near an all-time high as buyers refuse to give up amid recent Fed comments, China's stimulus (China's Central Bank today announced an unprecedented blitz of support for the economy) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
China is the world's top consumer of the yellow metal
The gold price tends to benefit from geopolitical tensions due to its traditional safe-haven status.
Also, the Fed will continue to hint at another 0.5% rate cut
Resistance levels: 2634, 2640
Support levels: 2623, 2614, 2602
The general background hints at an active continuation of the growth. If gold will consolidate above the maximum of the previous day, then in the mid (short) term we should consider the continuation of growth to 2650-2660-2675. It is not excluded that there may be a correction before further growth due to the approaching important news...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD steadies as Powell and Fed shake up trading day todayOANDA:XAUUSD is still trading quite stable in the early Asian session today (September 26) with both fundamental and technical uptrends being maintained. Currently, the gold price is around 2,660 USD/oz. This trading day, gold traders will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in gold prices.
Traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and US PCE inflation data for more details on the direction of interest rate policy.
Today (Thursday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will pre-record a video to deliver the opening address of the New York Fed's 2024 Treasury Markets Meeting.
Last Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.”
In addition to Powell, several key Fed officials spoke today (Thursday).
Today (Thursday), Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy today (Thursday), New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; Fed Governor Barr will also speak at the same time.
In terms of US economic data, on Friday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. state. So this data needs to be closely watched and it is expected to bring significant volatility in the financial markets as a whole.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's upward momentum is temporarily limited by the $2,672 level, the resistance point noted by readers in previous publications.
However, the trend and technical structure remain unchanged, still leaning completely towards the uptrend with the price channel as the short-term trend and EMA21 as the most important support.
However, the price increase is slowing down combined with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at the peak of the overbought area, showing that there is not much room for price increases and is consistent with the expectation of a downward adjustment without change the trend.
In the immediate future, gold may adjust down to 2,645 USD, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension or more than the 0.618% Fibonacci level. It must be noted that a correction is different from a long-term trend, because the main trend of gold prices is bullish so open positions taking advantage of the possibility of a correction should also be closed in the short term.
During the day, the uptrend with the expectation of a correction in gold prices will be noticed by the following levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2694
→Take Profit 1 2684
↨
→Take Profit 2 2679
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2603
→Take Profit 1 2614
↨
→Take Profit 2 2619
XAUUSD: Should turn sideways for the rest of the year.Gold is highly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.774, MACD = 45.540, ADX = 41.502) while at the same time it is approaching the top of the one year Channel Up. The two bullish waves of the pattern reached their HH after +22.50% and +18.50% rises and then turned sideways into a consolidation Rectangle. So even though the price can extend some more to reach a +22.50% rise, we are close to the +18.50% one and as mentioned the top of the Channel Up. This tells us that this isn't the time to buy at all but rather wait for the price to cross under the 1D MA50, which was the buy signal in the two consolidation Rectangles.
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Data and the risk of widespread conflict, GOLD finds new peaksAs tensions in the Middle East and US consumer confidence worsen, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal OANDA:XAUUSD , along with falling US Treasury bond yields and a weakening US Dollar, gold prices have once again renewed their all-time record high.
In terms of data
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that U.S. consumers' views of the economy worsened in September as concerns about jobs and business conditions grew, with the index Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in more than three years.
The Conference Board reported that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Survey of Dow Jones had forecast the number to be 104.
Iran's President warned Israel to conduct heavy air strikes
Israel announced that it launched a large-scale airstrike against "Hezbollah targets in Lebanon" on September 23, hitting more than 1,600 targets. Israel continued to conduct new air strikes in many places in Lebanon on September 24.
According to Britain's Reuters, on September 23 local time, Iranian President Pezhiziyan said in New York, USA that Israel hopes to draw the Middle East into the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah that has lasted nearly a year. past, by provoking Iran into "total war" and warning that its consequences would be "irreversible".
Asked whether Iran would retaliate after Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital Tehran in late July, Pezeshizyan said: "They will respond in the appropriate way." at the appropriate time and place."
As fighting between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli military escalated sharply, Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch attacks on Israel in recent days.
A direct Iranian attack on Israel would significantly further destabilize the region and could draw the United States into war.
The US Federal Reserve's beginning to loosen monetary policy also pushed up gold prices because gold does not generate interest and lowering interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Major investment banks expect gold's record price increase to continue through 2025 due to large capital inflows into gold ETFs and expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks the world's largest.
The basic picture has not changed as gold is still a comprehensively supported choice, both in terms of macro data, monetary policy and geopolitical developments that are increasingly new and complex. more complicated with the risk of spreading.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is having its fifth consecutive day of price increases, the next target level will be the $2,672 mark as the $2,645 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension was quickly broken during the trading day. Yesterday.
It is difficult to trade at the present time even though the main trend is still bullish with the price channel as the short-term trend. However, the Relative Strength Index has peaked in the overbought area, suggesting that there may not be much room left for the price to rise.
In principle, the market will not move in a straight line, so during this time there is a basis to expect a short-term correction without changing the trend.
The correction will likely be limited by support points from the 0.786% Fibonacci in the short term, and more so the 0.618% level.
However, it must be reiterated that all technical and fundamental conditions are pointing in the same direction of price increase, and the uptrend with the expectation of short-term adjustment and of gold prices will be noticed by high levels. following technique.
Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2694
→Take Profit 1 2684
↨
→Take Profit 2 2679
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2603
→Take Profit 1 2614
↨
→Take Profit 2 2619
GOLD is still looking for new peaks, PCE is the focus this weekAt the end of the last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East.
On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020.
Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.”
They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.”
Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact.
• Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook.
• Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech.
• Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend.
• Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event.
• Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday.
• Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke.
Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further.
Economic data to watch next week
Monday: S&P Flash PMI
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Wednesday: New home sales in the United States
Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales
Friday: US PCE
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price.
Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much.
However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports.
Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD
Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2582
→Take Profit 1 2593
↨
→Take Profit 2 2598
Geopolitical tensions escalate, GOLD is heading to a new peakOn the Asian market on Tuesday (September 24), spot gold continued its recovery trend. The current gold price is at around 2,634USD/ounce, close to the historic high reached the previous trading day.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 48.6% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.4%.
The market is pricing in a higher likelihood of a 50bps interest rate cut by the Fed in November, which weakens the US Dollar and supports gold prices in terms of correlation.
Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks stem from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as U.S. political instability ahead of the November election and recession concerns. The economy will support the safe haven price of gold. Gold is known as a traditional safe haven whenever risks appear in the market, while currently political and economic instability appears. dense. Therefore, the basic trend of gold prices will still be upward.
Israel launched airstrikes on so-called Hezbollah weapons sites in southern and eastern Lebanon on Monday, killing nearly 500 people and raising the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East.
The Pentagon said Monday that the United States will send more troops to the Middle East as violence increases in the region, the Associated Press reported.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is supported by the trend from the short-term price channel and is currently continuing to recover after a slight correction yesterday.
Currently, gold is moving towards the initial target increase noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,645USD which is the confluence of the edge on the price channels and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
At 2,645USD, it is expected that there will be certain adjustments but will not affect the main short-term trend of price increase.
The relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought area on the daily chart so there may not be much room left for the price to rise and is in line with expectations of a downward correction from the aforementioned confluence.
Notable technical levels for the day are listed below.
Support: 2,624 – 2,613 – 2,610
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,645USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2582
→Take Profit 1 2593
↨
→Take Profit 2 2598
BOE may still warn of inflation, GBPUSD raises new targetThe British pound (GBP) will continue to outperform after the Bank of England signaled that it will maintain its restrained approach to interest rate cuts.
Bank of England Governor Bailey said the central bank needs to be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much. He also said that since the August meeting, inflationary pressures in the UK have continued to ease and overall economic performance is in line with expectations.
The Bank of England certainly seems not to be on the Fed's side and will not send a signal to lift its inflation warning. The British pound will likely continue to perform well in the near term, based on fundamentals.
On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD in the main uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 level as the main support.
The current position of GBP/USD above the 0.50% fibonacci extension shows that it could still continue to increase briefly in the near term with the 0.618% Fibonacci level, 1.33717 price point as the target.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit of room for price growth ahead.
As long as GBP/USD remains within the price channel, the main outlook will remain bullish and in the short term notable levels for a bullish outlook are listed below.
Support: 1.33009 – 1.32301
Resistance: 1.33717
GOLD → Testing the highs. News ahead. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is getting shaken on the background of dollar growth on Monday. A false breakdown is forming relative to last week's high. The trend is bullish, but before the strong news there may be a minute of panic....
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are rising on the back of falling interest rates, boosting the U.S. dollar. This is an unpredictable scenario, because something is not going the way everyone was expecting. Further movement depends on the Euro and US PMI data. If the PMI will again cause fears of recession in the world, the recovery of the US dollar, will change the local structure of the markets, which will cause a new correction in the price of gold from record highs. Also the focus on the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East...
Resistance levels: 2625, 2631, 2650
Support levels: 2614, 2602, 2589
Technically, a correction may follow from 2625 as locally there are preconditions for panic on the background of approaching news. Traders may resort to profit taking, which will contribute to the correction. BUT, if gold continues its active recovery, a break of 2631 will open the potential for a rise to 2640-2650.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD There is no stopping it. Can breach $3000 by mid 2025.It was only a little over a month ago (August 05, see chart below) when we signaled a strong buy on Gold (XAUUSD), targeting at 3100:
Practically, we've been calling for Gold's new Bull Cycle since April 04 (see chart below):
As you can see the price action followed our projection closely and immediately broke higher making a new All Time High. According to the 2019 - 2020 Bull Phase, we are in the middle of the Cycle, assuming both fractals are similar in % rise terms (+85.42%) or the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
Even if they don't, it is pretty clear that the long-term pattern is an 8-year Channel Up and most likely shouldn't top before the 1M CCI starts making Lower Highs. So far we have priced the first High (April 2024) and according to the 2020 fractal, the second should be at the end of the Bull Phase when the trend tops.
If that's not at 3100 by that time, we encourage you to take the long-term profit earlier like us. Also, this chart shows that since 2015, October isn't generally a bad month to buy at all, having failed as an entry only 2 times in 10 years.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]This week, after opening at 2,579 USD/oz, the international gold price dropped to 2,546 USD/oz, but then continuously increased sharply beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz to 2,625 USD/oz and closed the week. at 2,622 USD/oz.
International gold prices increased sharply because the FED cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points and signaled that it would further cut interest rates by about 200 basis points in the next 2 years. FED Chairman Powell said the FED will not rush to sharply loosen monetary policy and noted that the FED is currently in the process of readjusting its monetary policy.
Mr. Powell's comments show that the FED will not be too hasty in cutting interest rates, but will adjust monetary policy according to a specific roadmap. This may somewhat cause confusion among investors, causing them to take profits from gold investments that have yielded large profits, causing gold prices to adjust and accumulate in the short term. However, with the FED's roadmap to cut interest rates, gold prices are expected to continue to increase sharply in the near future.
📌Technical analysis indicators, such as MACD, RSI... are showing that gold price is in the overbought zone in the short term. However, the upward momentum of gold prices is still there, with no signs of reversal. The attractive area for gold prices seems to be the round block of 3,000 USD/oz, corresponding to the Fibo level of 261.8 calculated according to the Weekly chart.
From a narrower perspective, looking at the H4 chart, in the immediate future, the gold price may continue to maintain its upward momentum to conquer the next resistance level around 2,690 - 2,700 USD/oz, before decreasing and adjusting again.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.595 – 2.600 – 2.610USD
Resistance: 2.645 – 2.624USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2515
SILVER SHORT via AG (WORST RUN MINER IN THE GAME) FUNDAMENTAL
- Price of Silver aside, AG is an incredibly poorly run miner. From mass share dilution to disastrous acquisitions I can not think of a more poorly run company. The stock price speaks for itself... sitting near the lows of the year despite silver at recent highs.
SILVER
- Silver has been behaving very weak in relation to Gold. Unless we break out above 31.50-32.50 I see Silver continuing to be range bound at best. There are many reasons for this. Mainly indications from strong correlations that I will not mention (secret sauce).
TECHNICALS
- The price is at a solid supply level (6.20) and has already began dramatic impulses to the downside at any hint of Silver rolling over. In addition we have divergence on the RSI.
DISCLAMER: No Neumeyers were hurt in the making of this post
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching).
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish.
Spread: Bearishly diverging.
ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity.
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
GOLD surpassed the 2,600 USD/oz markOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market increased by 36.3 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 1.4%, closing at 2,622.4 USD/oz.
The Fed's move to lower interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday is "fueling" gold prices. This precious metal is a non-interest bearing asset, so it benefits in a falling interest rate environment.
According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are betting on a 100% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in both its November and December meetings.
In addition, this year, global investors are also actively buying gold to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and some other places. The trend of net buying gold by central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the USD also contributed greatly to the increase in gold prices.
Israel announced that it had killed a senior commander and important figures of Hezbollah in an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, raising concerns about the risk of widespread war in the Middle East. However, US President Joe Biden still believes that the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza Strip is realistic.
Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased 26%, the largest increase in a year since 2010. Some analysts believe that this record increase in gold prices may soon turn into a correction state.
The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.12% on Friday, closing at 100.74 points. However, the index has decreased 0.37% this week and decreased nearly 4.8% in the past 3 months - according to data from MarketWatch.
XAUUSD: 2,650 by next week, 2,850 by early 2025.Gold turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.445, MACD = 34.140, ADX = 33.307). Despite that, our TP = 2,650 will most likely get hit by next week, so now we will discuss what could happen next. Obviously a rejection at the Top of the Channel Up is most likely to take place, with which the market will seek technical confirmation of a support and buyers near the 1D MA50 again.
On the 1W timeframe however (right chart), with the Fed cutting the rates aggressively as during the pandemic (March 2020), it is very likely that we are in a post cut rally which, with the support of the 1W MA50, will peak possibly as high as +78.50%, like the August 2020 Top. Consequently, we see more probable long term for Gold to reach 2,850 by February-March 2025.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GOLD continues to be strong, geopolitical tensionsOn Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, starting an easing cycle and gold prices rose accordingly. Traders are ignoring the rise in US Treasury yields, which are inversely correlated with gold, and gold is still aiming for $2,600 raw price or perhaps a new all-time high. grand.
Readers can review the Federal Reserve's policy analysis in yesterday's publication linked below.
Tensions in the Middle East and ceasefire negotiations are positive for gold
“Gold is considered a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, and because gold is not subject to interest, it often thrives in low interest rate environments.”
The Wall Street published an exclusive report on Thursday, local time, The Wall Street said senior US officials had said a ceasefire and hostage release was within reach, but now here they admitted that they did not expect Israel and Hamas to attend.
"There is no chance of achieving this now," the Saudi official said shortly after the pager attack on Hezbollah. "Everyone is waiting and watching to see what happens after the election. Conclusion The results will determine what the next government can do."
Failure to reach an agreement will harm the "job" of current President Biden. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, the war has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and minors.
According to the latest report by Agence France-Presse, Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firas Abyad said that communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in Lebanon on September 17 and 18 local time. , leaving 37 people dead and nearly 3,000 injured.
On September 19, Hamas issued a statement thanking Hezbollah for its support in Lebanon. Hamas said that Hezbollah's resolute stance in Lebanon "has undermined Israel's efforts to sabotage the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip."
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After adjusting and recovering, gold currently has all the conditions to aim for the target increase at the original price point of 2,600 USD that was previously achieved.
In the short term, $2,600 will remain the target resistance, however once gold breaks above the $2,600 base price it could continue to rise another $12 to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The uptrend will still be the main trend with the price channel and support from EMA21. As long as gold remains in the price channel, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections without damaging the main trend. .
Maintaining above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is also a positive signal for gold prices in the short term technically.
During the day, the bullish outlook will be noticed by the following levels.
Support: 2,582 – 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD
In the current trading environment, large fluctuations often occur. It can be said that these fluctuations are so large that looking for so-called optimal entry positions too close will bring the risk of being "swept out". "
Therefore, along with finding reasonable entry locations, optimization also needs to be emphasized in the process of controlling volume and transaction density.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2616 - 2614⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
→Take Profit 1 2609
↨
→Take Profit 2 2604
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2564 - 2566⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2560
→Take Profit 1 2571
↨
→Take Profit 2 2576
GOLD Breaks Records,Overbought Signals Hint at Scalping ReversalGold surged to a new all-time high near $2,610 on Friday as expectations grew that global central banks will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by the prospect of lower interest rates, which diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets like gold. This surge in gold’s value is largely attributed to the growing consensus that central banks worldwide will follow the Fed's lead in slashing rates to stimulate economic growth.
Lower interest rates typically favor gold, as they make alternative interest-bearing investments less attractive. With fewer benefits from higher-yielding assets, gold becomes a more appealing choice for investors looking to protect their wealth in an environment of falling rates. However, as gold reaches new highs, there’s a caveat: when access to gold becomes easier, it reduces the perceived value of holding it, as the scarcity that once made the asset so desirable begins to wane.
Amid this record-breaking rally, we’ve noticed overbought conditions in the gold market, signaling a potential opportunity for scalpers. A short-term bearish setup is forming as gold nears a technical exhaustion point. The sharp rise in price has pushed gold into overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback or reversal. This presents a lucrative opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a quick price correction.
From a technical standpoint, gold is showing signs of a potential reversal, as momentum indicators flash warning signals of an impending price downturn. Scalpers and short-term traders may find an attractive entry point for a bearish trade, particularly if gold fails to maintain its new record high and starts retreating toward key support levels.
While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to global monetary easing, in the short term, market conditions may favor a pullback. Traders looking for a short-term bearish setup should monitor key resistance levels and momentum indicators for confirmation of a reversal. With gold hovering near its peak, the potential for a temporary correction is becoming increasingly likely, making it a prime target for short-term profit opportunities.
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After Powell's speech, GOLD prices plummetedAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery soared to 2,600.15 USD/ounce, reaching a new era record high. But after Powell's speech, gold prices plummeted, currently trading around 2,563 USD/ounce. Powell said at the press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a fixed pace of new rate cuts.”
On Wednesday local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting in Washington, lowering its target range. target the federal funds rate down to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020.
Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. This decision to cut interest rates was not supported by all FOMC members.
The statement shows that one person voted against the 50 basis point rate cut and Fed Governor Bowman, who voted against it, supported the 25 basis point rate cut.
Thus, Bowman became the first Fed governor since 2005 to vote against the decision of a majority of FOMC members at the FOMC interest rate meeting.
Summary of Jerome Powell's speech
Powell said: "We are recalibrating our policy stance; nothing in our (economic) forecasts suggests that we are rushing to act; Fed economic forecasts are basic forecasts; the actual actions we take will depend on how the economy develops. If appropriate, we can speed up or slow down the pace of interest rate cuts , or even choose to pause; this 50 basis point cut does not mean we are rushing to act.”
“I don't see any signs right now that the likelihood of a recession has increased,” Powell said. I don't see that. You will see the economy growing at a steady pace, see inflation decreasing. You'll see the workforce, the market remain at a very stable level, so I don't see that right now."
Powell's indication that if appropriate, the Fed could speed up or slow down the pace of rate cuts, or even choose to pause this 50 basis point rate cut, does not indicate the Fed is ready to act. This has damaged market sentiment that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively in the future, which has weakened gold prices. But it does not mean a basic trend because the basic trend will still be bullish, because the path to cutting interest rates by the Fed is still very long and data will continue to be the next catalyst.
The reason to say that the path to cutting interest rates is still very long is that readers can pay attention to the details that "in the shortest term", Fed officials expect interest rates to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024. and down to 3.4% by 2025.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold corrected significantly on yesterday's trading day after renewing its all-time high in the $2,600 area, this was also the target increase that readers noticed in the weekly publication.
Technically, the adjustment from the original price level is not an unusual sign of the trend. The current trend of gold price is still bullish with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, the technical outlook remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up, showing that momentum and room for price growth are still ahead.
Once gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension it will be in position to retest the all-time high once again and gold sustaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the trend. short-term upward trend.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points.
Support: 2,561 – 2,546 – 2,540USD
Resistance: 2,582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2584⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2579
↨
→Take Profit 2 2574
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2524 - 2526⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2520
→Take Profit 1 2531
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
GOLD recovers from support at $2,561, Fed decisionOANDA:XAUUSD decreased and recovered after the US announced retail sales figures for August. This is the last important US macroeconomic data released before the Fed's decision today (Wednesday).
Gold price touched 2,560 USD in yesterday's trading session. As of the time of writing, spot gold is at 2,573 USD/ounce.
Data from the US Census Bureau showed US retail sales increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, compared with a revised 1.1% increase in July. higher than expectations of a 0.2% decline.
Meanwhile, US retail sales (excluding autos) increased 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in July. This figure was lower than expectations for 0.2% growth.
The data slightly reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point Federal Reserve cut at its September meeting, which would have an impact on gold's near-term gains.
Fed decision upcoming
Today (Wednesday), the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, which is expected to create a major volatility in the gold market.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut was 67% before the data was released, but after the data was released, the probability fell to 65%.
This would be the Fed's first rate cut since 2020, and financial markets have priced in the possibility of the Fed acting aggressively, as indicated by rates on CME's FedWatch tool.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Gold buying power will decrease if the Fed only cuts 25bps this time, however, gold will be supported and rise even higher once the Fed cuts 50bps.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected yesterday, it received support at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue.
The current price point of 2,561USD is the nearest support level, while the price point of 2,582USD is the nearest resistance and is also the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci level.
For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price technically, it needs to break the level of 2,582 USD and maintain price activity above this level, then the target is still the original price point of 2,600 USD in the short term rather than the level of 2,612 USD. Fibonacci price point 0.786%.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices is still dominating with the main trend from the price channel, and notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540
→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556
Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMCOANDA:XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week.
Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August.
Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold.
While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support.
Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level.
Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias.
However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently.
During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below.
Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540
→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556
VOLATILITY EXPANSION = GOLD - $2800MACRO
- Gold is not only benefiting from the prospect of rate cuts but the added uncertainty of lingering inflation concerns given the latest CPI/PPI numbers. If FOMC's rate cut looks anything like ECB's Gold will outperform in the week(s) ahead.
TECHNICAL
Gold has broken out of a tightening range and volatility is expanding. This trade set up will be valid as long as Gold continues to hold above the Daily Bollinger Band and Close above its previous days low. I will look for a 9 candle count move here for an ultimate target around the $2700-$2800 level. That being said, I will look to take partial profits on any major impulses during FOMC meeting/rate cut.
XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical top. Be ready to sell.A little more than 2 months ago (July 08, see chart below) we signaled a strong buy on Gold (XAUUSD) as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up was confirmed, and we set a long-term Target at 2600:
Now that the Target is about to get hit, we prepare for a new long-term peak at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. The previous rallies/ Bullish Legs of the pattern rose by a minimum of +15.74% and maximum of +24.12%. The latter rally however started very close to the bottom of the Channel Up, so we believe that the new top will be priced within a +15.74% and + 18.60% (second lowest) range.
This gives us a Bearish Range of 2635 - 2700, where the action is a Sell, certainly not the level to place any long-term buys. We will start considering this after the price approaches the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) again, which is a signal that only failed once in four times.
This time the top formation may be prolonged until November's U.S. elections but the bottom line is that near the top of the Channel Up, the action is to sell/ take profit.
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