Get started

Gc1

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [19 August - 23 August]This week, international gold prices have increased quite strongly. After falling slightly to 2,432 USD/oz, international gold prices soared to over 2,500 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,507 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply this week because the market expected the FED to definitely cut interest rates at its September meeting. In addition, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing many investors to worry that this tension could lead to a war in the Middle East, increasing the haven demand for gold. In addition, the USD declined as the Atlantic Council's USD Dominance Monitor Report said the USD's share in global reserves reached 58% by 2024, down 14% compared to 2002 as many countries Countries, especially members of the BRICS bloc, seek to stay away from the USD. The focus for the gold market next week will be the Jackson Hole conference. The FED Chairman will provide assessments and updates on the US economy and the outlook for the FED's monetary policy. If at the Jackson Hole conference, the FED Chairman continues to affirm that he will cut interest rates in September, it may push gold prices higher next week. However, if the FED Chairman changes his tone again, saying that the FED needs to continue monitoring the economic situation before cutting interest rates, it will cause gold prices to decline next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 technical chart, the extended Fibonacci shows that the gold price can reach the Target around 2,590-2,600 USD/oz. Short-term trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns around 2470, and sell around 2590. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470 – 2.484USD Resistance: 2.4600 – 2.544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2469 - 2471⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2465
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [12 August - 16 August]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to fall sharply on Monday due to the Nikkei index falling 12%, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets, forcing investors to sell gold to supplement their deposits. stock investment. At one point, the international gold price dropped to 2,364 USD/oz. However, immediately after that, gold prices continuously recovered because investors expected the FED to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points in September. Accordingly, gold price climbed to 2,436 USD/oz and closed at 2,430 USD/oz. This may be a stepping stone for gold price increases next week. In the coming week, there are quite a few important economic data that can strongly impact gold prices, such as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). ) announced on Wednesday, followed by retail sales, a preliminary survey of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan for August... In which, PPI, CPI are forecast to continue to decrease slightly, creating favorable Conditions for the FED to cut interest rates next September may support gold prices next week. In addition, many FED officials, such as Mr. Bostic, Musalem, Harker, and Goolsbee, will give speeches on monetary policy. However, according to many experts, most of these officials support the FED in cutting interest rates. This is also considered one of the driving forces for gold prices next week. Technically, from a long-term perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend across time frames when prices are still above the moving average lines (EMA34, 89). However, a divergence signal has appeared on the D1 frame, while on the Weekly frame, the price of gold is quite far away from the EMA lines (the price can adjust to or move sideways with a wide range waiting to intersect with the average lines). The above 2 signals recommend that we should not join the buying side at this time. If we are buying, we should wait for price corrections. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.408 – 2.400USD Resistance: 2.437 – 2.453 – 2.484USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2374 - 2376⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2370
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Attempting to recover inside a new range FX:XAUUSD declines after the CPI report to the local liquidity zone of 2440, forming a new trading range. But, buyers come back and try to hold the psychological zone of 2450 again. The bullish trend persists, gold is trading within the “Symmetrical Triangle” consolidation pattern Traders await US retail sales data for fresh signals on Fed policy. Although the annual inflation rate in the US slowed down for the fourth consecutive month to 2.9%, but these CPI figures have raised fears that the US Fed will decide to cut interest rate heavily next month. A weak US retail sales report could revive recession fears.... Technically, we should focus on the local levels inside the range of 2440 - 2477. Resistance levels: 2458, 2467, 2477 Support levels: 2440, 2431, 2320 Technically buyers are trying to keep the price from falling, but all the emphasis is on the news, favorable fundamental data can provide strong support for gold, which can use the energy for another retest of 2477, but an unpredictable report can intensify the sell-off and bring the price to 2425. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
GOLD still has all the conditions for price increasesUS economic data was stronger than expected and markets predict these data could influence the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The USD and US bond yields increased, causing gold prices to encounter some difficulties for expectations of price increases. OANDA:XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks. The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%. As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices. In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of ​​$2,455 – $2,448. Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21. The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead. Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes. Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours. The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Ripper Rally Set For 8-16 into 8-20 Targeting $2575-$2650Have you been following my research on GOLD? This next move will likely be a very strong Ripper-Rally where Gold will break through the dual Flag Apex and move dramatically higher over the next 5-10+ days. I will let this video tell you all you need to know. Remember, watch my Gold Dual-Leg Rally video too. I wonder what the "driver" of this rally in Gold will be? US-Dollar? Foreign Markets? Some political or geo-political news? Something will send Gold upward $75-$100+ over the next 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD recovers after adjustment by CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a slight decline when the latest US CPI report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply next month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report Wednesday saying the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in July. Economists surveyed previously expected the index to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, U.S. core CPI in July rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. . The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Tracker" shows that the market now expects a 35% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with a 50% chance before the data release. US CPI data. However, a rate cut in September is a certainty; Current data shows that the Federal Reserve initially only intended to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has disappointed markets where expectations for a 50 basis point cut were previously higher. Cutting interest rates will more or less bring support to gold prices when the USD loses important support from the high interest rate environment. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation still has many potential risks and gold is always a safe haven asset when geopolitical developments become complicated. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected downwards before, maintaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the short-term uptrend. In the immediate future, gold will be limited by the technical level of 2,455 USD noted by readers in yesterday's edition and once gold breaks this level, it has the potential to increase further to the target level then around. Fibonacci extension level 0.618%. In a negative case, gold could be sold below the $2,426 technical level if support at $2,448 is broken below. So traders who buy gold should be prepared for this scenario, but the main trend will still be bullish because 2,426USD is also the confluence of Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish with notable positions listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → ATH retest before CPI. What should we expect?FX:XAUUSD is defending the psychological level and support zone at 2450 and testing key resistance at 2477 for a breakout, ahead of 2483. All eyes are on key US CPI inflation data Traders are still expecting a softer CPI report after a larger than expected decline in PPI data released yesterday. A softer CPI figure may confirm forecasts of an aggressive Fed rate cut, which will intensify the USD sell-off. This situation may trigger a northward movement in gold (strengthening the price) In addition, the price of gold continues to find support in the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the situation is still heated to the limit. Technically, the price continues to head towards 2477-2483. Retests of resistance for a breakout of the level continue. Resistance levels: 2477, 2483, 2500 Support levels: 2458, 2450 On high news volatility, the price may form a quick breakout and rally or long-squeeze before rising further. BUT, unpredictable news may break the market structure, in which case the price may head beyond 2450. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
Ready, focus on CPI data this trading dayThe US dollar and US bond yields rose slightly after US producer price data reinforced hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while gold prices hovered near highs all-time record set in July. OANDA:XAUUSD attracted some profit-taking as it approached monthly highs tested earlier on Tuesday and pared Monday's sharp gain of more than 1%. Overall positive sentiment in equity markets has dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets and weighed on precious metals amid a market focus on closely watched inflation data. of America. In terms of the fundamental picture, gold still has a lot of support to become a top priority Investors remain concerned about the possibility of broader conflict in the Middle East and the impact of the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will no longer support the US Dollar (USD) and will act as a favorable tailwind for gold prices. Data released Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in July, suggesting inflation continued to slow. Traders now await US consumer price index (CPI) data for July today (Wednesday) and retail sales data due (Thursday) for further impetus to the move. The next policy stance of the US central bank. Today (Wednesday), investors will receive more important US consumer price index (CPI) data. Markets generally expect that if inflation continues to show signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Surveys show that the annual US CPI increase in July is expected to remain at 3.0%. Annual core CPI growth is expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.3% last month. If the CPI data is lower than expected, this will further pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and support gold prices. On the geopolitical side According to sources from Reuters, Iranian officials said: Only a ceasefire in Gaza can delay retaliation Three senior Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire in Gaza during negotiations expected to take place this week will prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its territory, Reuters reported. news on Wednesday. A senior Iranian security official, said Iran would launch a direct attack with allies such as Hezbollah if the Gaza talks fail or if Iran believes Israel is delaying the talks. . Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts whether ceasefire negotiations could continue. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months but have failed to reach a final ceasefire agreement. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold decreased and corrected from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension towards 2,455 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's edition, it has now recovered slightly and lost the corrective downward momentum. In the short, medium and long term, the technical structure as well as the trend is still an uptrend. With gold breaking above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new uptrend. With a short-term target at 2,484 USD (all-time high) and more than the original price of 2,500 – 2,505 USD. As long as gold remains above the $2,455 – $2,448 area, it will still have a bullish short-term technical outlook, and the main trend is noticed by the price channel and the main support is noticed by the EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish as the Relative Strength Index is still a long way from reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for growth ahead. And the notable prices will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,455 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,471 – 2,484 – 2,500USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Next stop 2545.Two weeks ago (July 29, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Gold (XAUUSD) right at the bottom of June's Channel Up: The price hasn't yet hit the 2545 Target as it posted yet another Higher Low but is on good course to hit it, as the Higher Lows structure resembles that of June's. One more pull-back and we believe that Gold will then make its next technical Higher High at +8.30% (similar to the previous Bullish Leg). Note that throughout this whole time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting and currently is just below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD → The bull market continues. Ahead of the PPI...FX:XAUUSD has been breaking through the key resistance 2431 since the opening of the session and is holding towards the liquidity zone 2458. Ahead of PPI, which may set a short-term tone in the market. Gold continues to form a bullish trend, the general premise is that the price is going to test ATH. Ahead of PPI and it is worth paying attention to the inflation indicator, which plays an important role for the Fed and the formation of further strategy. Also a lot of attention to the Middle East, namely the actions of Iran.... Technically, the price is in the range of 2458 - 2431. Emphasis on the resistance, because, on the background of a distant retest, it will not be possible to break this zone from the first time and a correction may take place before further growth. Resistance levels: 2458, 2477 Support levels: 2431, 2418 Traders expect the PPI to remain at the same level, but if the data indicates a decline in inflation, the market may take it very positively. Unpredictable data can increase market volatility quite a lot. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
GOLD fell slightly, but the target is the all-time highOn the Asian market on Tuesday (August 13), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD A slight decrease after a pressure increase close to the all-time peak is the price increase target sent to readers recently. Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold now aiming for $2,500 an ounce once its all-time peak is surpassed. Gold jumped amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to delay any more interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time at its upcoming September meeting, possibly by 50 basis points. Gold started the new week positively in the context of slowing demand for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting gold demand. Western countries warn that Iran could launch an attack on Israel, which would reduce the possibility of a ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Israel placed its military on high alert Monday after learning of preparations by Iran and the militant group Hezbollah. The Wall Street Journal said: "Israel put its military on high alert for the first time this month after witnessing Iran and Hezbollah preparing to launch attacks. Israel does not know whether an attack is imminent." happening or not but they are taking action". Israeli military spokesman Hagari issued a statement Monday evening local time, saying that the Israeli military is “Closely monitoring developments in the region, especially the activities of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon, and prepare defenses to respond to attacks.” Rising tensions in the Middle East have also created some safe-haven demand, and gold has always been a top choice for traditional haven demand. As we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, gold is receiving active support by the two most important fundamental factors: - On the one hand, the USD has less attractive prospects when the Fed is very close to its first interest rate cut, and the market also has many speculations that the Fed will have more cuts this year. . The cutting cycle begins, the USD's correlation with gold weakens and this is an important driving force supporting gold prices. - On the other hand, gold always reacts positively to market risks, especially geopolitical risks that always create surprises that cause gold prices to skyrocket. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD For the time being, gold is limited by its all-time high and also the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension. However, the gold price has all the technical conditions for a bullish outlook with the main trend being noticed by the trend price channel, the main support is also noticed by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the short to medium term technical outlook remains bullish, while the RSI crosses above 50 and remains bullish but has not yet reached the overbought, showing that there is still plenty of room for price increases ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,450 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,477 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focusOANDA:XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week. Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent. After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset. However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil. A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June. If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease. On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold. On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June. Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect. CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%. It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437. Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails. On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead. All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions. This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → The bulls kept the market from falling. Emphasis on 2431FX:XAUUSD is working out the range support and realizing the potential of the pattern "symmetrical triangle" in a bullish direction. On H1-H4 the market is in a sideways range, locally we are dealing with a bullish trend. There is no news today. Technically, a bullish market is developing. Global trend is upward, local trend is neutral with bullish prerequisites. The price is squeezed between the resistance at 2431, which is the key resistance. A breakdown and consolidation above this zone will open a huge potential for the market. On H1, consolidation is forming above the support at 2418, a retest and liquidity capture is possible before further growth, as the bullish potential (locally) is not exhausted yet and the upward movement can be continued, but after a small correction. The market is perfectly working the lower boundary of the range 2369 and now considers the upper boundary 2477 as a potential.... Resistance Levels: 2431 Support levels: 2418, 2407, 2402 Emphasis on these levels. Most likely MM may test the support before the subsequent rise. But the primary retest of 2431 may give a small correction before the breakout and impulse to the mentioned targets. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Flag Pattern Alert: Gold's Big Decision!Now that the title got your attention! Take some time to fully digest the market breakdown below where we cover this further in depth! 1. Price Structure: - Downtrend: The chart shows a significant downtrend from the left side, leading to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish structure. - Consolidation/Flag Formation: After a strong bearish move, the price appears to be consolidating within a flag pattern, as indicated by the 15-minute and 1-hour flag formations. This is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might continue in the direction of the previous trend (downwards). 2. Key Levels: - Daily LQZ (2,474.774): This is a higher time frame liquidity zone. Price is currently below this level, indicating that there might be significant resistance here. - 4HR LQZ (2,459.094): This zone is also above the current price, acting as potential resistance. A move towards this zone might face selling pressure. - 1HR LQZ (2,445.648): This is a closer resistance level, just above the current price action, within the range of the flag pattern. A breakout above the flag might target this LQZ. - 15M LQZ (2,415.863): Price is currently hovering around this level, indicating that the market is at a critical point where it could either bounce or break lower. - 1HR LQZ (2,402.417): If the price breaks down from the current flag, this level could act as the next target/support. 3. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow): - Breakout of the Flag: If the price breaks out upwards from the flag formation, it could signal a reversal or a correction within the larger downtrend. - Target Levels: The price might aim for the 1HR LQZ at 2,445.648 first, with potential further movement towards the 4HR LQZ at 2,459.094, and eventually towards the Daily LQZ at 2,474.774 if bullish momentum continues. - Bearish Scenario (Orange Arrow): - Breakdown from the Flag: If the price breaks down from the flag pattern, it would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. - Target Levels: The immediate target would be the 1HR LQZ at 2,402.417, followed by the next lower Daily LQZ at 2,355.819. 4. Market Phases: - Impulsive and Corrective Phases:The downtrend before the flag can be considered an impulsive phase, while the flag pattern itself represents a corrective phase. Understanding these phases can help anticipate the next move. 5. Lower High Formation: - The chart also marks a “Lower High” within the flag formation. This suggests that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher, which is a bearish signal, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown. 6. Volume Analysis: - Volume Support: The volume seems to be lower during the flag formation compared to the preceding downtrend, which is typical in a consolidation phase. A breakout with strong volume would give more validity to the direction. 7. Conclusion: - Bullish Bias: If the price breaks out of the flag with strong momentum and volume, a short-term bullish move towards the higher LQZs can be expected. - Bearish Bias: The overall trend and the formation of a lower high suggest a bearish continuation. If the price breaks down from the flag, the bearish scenario could play out with targets towards the lower LQZs. This breakdown gives you a structured view of the current market conditions on this chart. As always, consider combining this technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment, fundamental analysis, and your risk management strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
GOLD → What is the problem with a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE ► ?FX:XAUUSD is still trading inside the flat 2420 - 2370 forming a symmetrical triangle. Traders continue to struggle for the area of 2400. News ahead... I understand that you don't like it when there is no clear direction on the chart, but there are nuances here and in some cases you need to have both bullish and bearish scenarios. Let's break it down... On D1 there is a rather encouraging situation indicating how the bulls continue to hold the support of the global trend. The issue of aggressive easing of the US Fed policy is still relevant. Likewise, speculators are closely watching developments around Iran's attack on Israel. If it happens, it is likely to give additional impetus to the growth of gold prices. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims of the USA may provide short-term potential for the markets. Technically, gold is forming a symmetrical triangle on H1. The bearish pressure is still present in the market. Gold is not technical now, but depends on fundamental nuances. Resistance levels: 2400 Support levels: 2380 The problem with a symmetrical triangle is that no one knows where the price will go until the actual exit. Globally we have a bull market, locally there is pressure from the bears. There is a high probability of a breakout of the symmetrical triangle support and a decline to 2364-2351, but if the economic factor has a bullish effect on the market, gold may continue to test 2400 with the goal of a breakout and a rise to 2420. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
GOLD is stable with an uptrendEarly in the Asian trading session on August 9, OANDA:XAUUSD slightly down about 5dollars, currently trading at 2,421USD/oz, equivalent to 0.23% on the day. Gold had earlier rallied on Thursday, supported by solid safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sharply in September. Spot gold closed trading on Thursday up sharply at 44.51 USD, equivalent to 1.87%, at 2,427.11 USD/ounce, ending the previous 5 consecutive days of decline. Gold has benefited from speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more sharply than previously estimated. This sentiment was reinforced when the latest macroeconomic data showed that the US economy could face a recession, sparking speculation that interest rates could be cut. 3 times before the end of this year. According to data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 56.5% chance that interest rates will decrease by 50 basis points in September, with a further cut expected in December. Meanwhile, there is about a 43.5% chance that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points in September. % chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points. Big news about attacks on Israel Gold's appeal is supported by geopolitical risks that Iran and Lebanon could retaliate against Israel. The latest developments in the Middle East increase geopolitical risks. While market sentiment remains positive, there are concerns about impending retaliation by Iran and Lebanon against Israel. On August 8 local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had used Katyusha rockets, heavy artillery shells and guided weapons to attack many Israeli military targets that day. The targets of the attack included the launch pad of Israel's Iron Dome system, the Israeli military barracks in Zarit and the Israeli military base in Kfar Shuba. Israel TV Channel 12 reported that Israel hoped to send a message in this way that Israel was prepared for the conflict to escalate into a full-scale war. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered rapidly from the key support confluence area noted by readers in previous publications, highlighted by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal support level 2,378USD. Currently, gold's move above the original price of 2,400 USD and EMA21 are positive conditions for an uptrend with the next target at 2,437 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. In case gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the target will once again be aimed at the all-time high at $2,484 price point when there is no notable technical resistance ahead. During the day, the trend of gold prices is still bullish and as long as gold remains above 2,400 USD, the short-term technical outlook will continue to be bullish. The prices will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,416 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2444 - 2442 ⚰️SL: 2448 ⬆️TP1: 2437 ⬆️TP2: 2432 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Consolidation above global trend supportFX:XAUUSD is trading inside the global range. The focus is on local support and resistance levels. The dollar is temporarily rising, which has an impact on gold, which is globally in a bullish trend. The gold price remains vulnerable despite the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance. The gold price continues to lose ground for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, approaching a one-week low on the back of a generally stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields. There are not many key news today, so the general fundamental background and technical component should be evaluated as a priority. Technically, gold is not allowed below 2369 and 2380, forming a correction and a retest of the resistance at 2397-2400. If the bulls are able to break this zone and consolidate above the level, we can get on the train to the north, but an active struggle of differently-minded traders is forming in this zone. The trading range for today is 2420 - 2370 (confirmed by the movement of August 05 - 06). Resistance levels: 2397, 2400, 2420 Support levels: 2380, 2370 If bears hold resistance, price may test the lower boundary of the range. But, a retest and breakdown of 2420 would disrupt the market structure and character and create a fickle mood, within which the bulls may give impetus. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
15
DXY and Bond Yield still limit GOLDAs market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies continue to solidify, higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields have sent gold into a correction cycle. significantly reduced. However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases. US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven. US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims. In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications. The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%. During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405 ⚰️SL: 2411 ⬆️TP1: 2400 ⬆️TP2: 2395 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : Huge Dual-Leg Rally Setup $2550+Gold is setting up a unique dual-leg rally phase, and traders need to be aware of this before the move is complete. The recent panic setoff by the BOJ unsettled the markets - including Gold. The Yen Carry-trade unwound over the past 5+ days - resulting in a very consolidated downward price trend in Gold. I believe Gold is about to make two very big moves to the upside. The first move will be quick. Probably lasting only 2 or 3 days. The second move may be a bit longer, but it has the ability to rally well above $2550 as Gold reverts higher. Please pay attention to this video if you follow Gold. Gold as a hedge is one thing. This move is related to the reversion pressure and the protection of currency devaluation after the past 3+ weeks of global decoupling. I believe this next rally in gold will be explosive (min upside target $2550 or higher). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed. The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold. U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment. The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points. On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%. The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6. Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session. However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce. Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel. The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed. Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term. However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well. During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2409 ⬆️TP2: 2404 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1