GC Buy Stoptook a nice set up during london as Im trying to get used to trading London as I did back in 2017-2020
Red Folder News at 10 est. Keep that in mind Only targeting 1:1 on this... always 40 ticks risk
Gc1
GOLD → Shakeout and false breakdown of 2325. PPI aheadFX:XAUUSD rises to 2340 on the back of yesterday's CPI and Powell's comments form a shakeup in the market and the price of the metal drops to 2308, forming a false breakdown of the key liquidity area of 2325.
Today the market is expecting PPI (MoM) and Initial Jobless Claims. Producer Price Index is expected to be lower than last period 0.1% instead of 0.4%, but it all depends on the actual data. Mind you, yesterday the market got a CPI of 3.3%, versus the expected 3.4%. But Powell did not say anything interesting in the change of views and still sticks to the hawkish side. Technically, gold is breaking local upside support and forming a consolidation below 2325. If the data is bullish for the dollar, gold could continue to fall towards 2290-2265.
Resistance levels: 2325, 2340
Support levels: 2305, 2291
Technically gold is showing weakness, but it reacts quite strongly to any small positive news. The whole emphasis on today's news, if the fundamental background remains negative, we will consider the targets below, if there are hints of a change in the background, we can consider price growth to 2340-2355.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD. Weekly trading levels 10.06.2024 - 14.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
GOLD → CPI and FED. What to expect from the market? FX:XAUUSD is stopping after correction, traders are afraid to make premature decisions as news is ahead. A consolidation below 2315 is forming.
False break of support leads the price to retest 2310-2315, after which traders take a breather before the news.
All eyes remain on the upcoming big events, CPI and Fed. Key US CPI data will help shape the Fed's view on interest rates, which will significantly impact the value of the US dollar and gold prices in the near term. The market is expecting neutral (no change) data, which could generally keep the same fundamental backdrop. But, all eyes are on the actual data as the market is still confused by last Friday's higher NFP than expected.
Nevertheless, any initial reaction to the US CPI data may be temporary as gold traders will quickly switch to the FOMC & FED meeting.
Resistance levels: 2315, 2325, 2354
Support levels: 2305, 2291, 2267
Technically and fundamentally, gold is weak at the moment. On the background of high volatility, the price may try to break through 2325 and test the liquidity area of 2335-2345, then move to the decline phase, if the fundamental background is suitable for this. Risks of further decline are quite high, but the coming news can both strengthen this decline and break the market structure.
Regards R. Linda!
Gold: One Last ClimbWe expect the gold price to rise once again. We expect the high of the turquoise-colored wave B to occur in our same-colored Target Zone (between $2510 and $2631). After that, the price should sell off significantly. If, on the other hand, there is an early fall below the support at $2285 (45% likely), we will see the price already in the descent now.
Middle East heats up, GOLD recovers despite USD strengthDespite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold OANDA:XAUUSD still increasing strongly and stably. Growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US bond yields have provided bullish momentum for gold prices. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have stimulated gold prices to attract safe-haven buying.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 3 basis points to 4.297%, the lowest since April, after the U.S. ADP jobs report was weaker than expected.
Data released Wednesday showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, consistent with a recent cooling trend in the labor market.
Data released Wednesday by the ADP Research Institute, a subsidiary of private employment agency ADP, and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab show the number of private sector jobs in the United States. rose 152,000 in May. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a rise of 175,000.
Markets speculate that the slowing economy will create conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Traders in the federal funds futures market are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50 basis points by the end of the year.
Iran's latest threat: Israel must "pay with blood"!
Summary of content related to the situation in the Middle East: Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened to retaliate against Israel on Wednesday (June 5). Earlier this week, Israel launched an attack in Aleppo, Syria, killing an Iranian adviser.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the technical level that served as support noted by readers in the previous issue at $2,324. However, the upward momentum is temporarily limited by EMA21, an important technical point that is currently acting as the nearest resistance.
For gold to have enough technical conditions for a wider price increase in the near future, it needs to surpass the EMA21 level and then the target level is noted at the original price point of 2,400 USD.
Currently, the trend of gold prices is mainly to increase with the above conditions for price increase.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,358 – 2,344 – 2,340 – 2,324USD
Resistance: 2,375 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2381 - 2379
⚰️SL: 2385
⬆️TP1: 2374
⬆️TP2: 2369
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2338 - 2340
⚰️SL: 2334
⬆️TP1: 2345
⬆️TP2: 2350
GOLD → Price range. Test of resistance before the news FX:XAUUSD is testing trend resistance. The struggle continues, but on the background of strong dollar the price can test the minimum or even update it. The news is coming and the market may go flat.
GOLD is testing the strong resistance area 2304 as well as the pullback level 2314.7, forming a new key resistance within the correction. The technical and fundamental background for gold is negative, in the mid-term we should expect a fall, but tomorrow we are waiting for news such as: CPI, FOMC and FED meeting, where obviously the overall inflation situation and the US interest rate will be discussed.
If we pay attention to D1, we can see that the dollar continues to grow in an uptrend, at tomorrow's speeches, the regulators may continue to support the dollar, which may have a negative impact on gold, which by then may test the liquidity area 2304-2314-2325 before a further possible fall.
Support levels: 2300, 2291, 2267
Resistance levels: 2304, 2314, 2325
Today the market may trade within the range of 2291 - 2325, the prospective direction can be discussed tomorrow (before the news), but within the intra-day I would expect a retest of resistance and a possible decline to support.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Causes of the fall. Can gold fall even lower? 2265?FX:XAUUSD is making a new low and there are a number of reasons for that. The price after Friday's sell-offs is returning in the bearish trend boundaries, which determines the medium-term prospects for us
On D1, price is still in a global sideways range and support (global liquidity zone) is still untested. So why did gold fall? The market was negatively affected by the strengthening of the dollar, due to the positive NonFarm Payrolls for the US market, which generally forms a medium-term mood for the markets. Traders also moved to the bearish train on the background of news related to the suspension of global gold purchases by the Central Bank of China.
Technically, the continuation of the downtrend on H1 is most likely. On D1, a takeover is forming and Friday's close is practically at the minimum values (The movement, theoretically, is not over yet), but before that the market may test the lower boundary of the consolidation (the nearest resistance).
Resistance levels: 2315, 2325
Support levels: 2291, 2267
I expect local strengthening before the subsequent fall. Traders may try to buy back some of the decline (liquidity gathering) before further testing support with a view to breakout.
Regards R. Linda!
Published weekly, PCE cools down but does not yet support GOLDAlthough PCE data shows inflation has cooled, gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce.
PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases.
Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended.
Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this.
Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized.
U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%.
Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%.
Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month.
Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%.
Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts.
Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold.
Noteworthy data and events next week
Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI
Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance.
The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD.
The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper.
The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344
⚰️SL: 2350
⬆️TP1: 2339
⬆️TP2: 2334
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301
⚰️SL: 2295
⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311
GOLD rises but limited by EMA21, pay attention to ADP and NFPThe US manufacturing industry lost more momentum and increasingly fell into a state of contraction. This data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields fell, and the gold market regained momentum and remained around 2,350 USD/ounce.
On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the US manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in May, down from 49.2% in April. The data was weaker than expected, with consensus predicting the index will improve slightly to 49.8.
The gold market has seen some initial buying momentum as it recovers from lows, disappointing economic data has created fresh buying in the market.
Markets increasingly expect that the slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even as inflation remains relatively high, higher than the Fed's target of level 2 inflation. %.
The market expects an 82% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in November. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will almost certainly cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% on Thursday, likely potentially become the first major central bank to cut interest rates this cycle.
Investors are now looking forward to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold recovered again and maintained price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be considered a positive signal. However, the recovery momentum is also limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
As noted to readers in previous publications, in order for the gold price to have more basis for its rising prospects, it needs to bring price activity above EMA21, then the short-term target level is noticed. at original price of 2,400 USD.
Temporarily, at the present time, the gold price is not yet qualified to increase in price, but on the other hand, the short-term technical trend is more inclined towards the possibility of price decrease. And notable technical points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,340 – 2,324USD
Resistance: 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374
⚰️SL: 2380
⬆️TP1: 2369
⬆️TP2: 2364
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2324 - 2326
⚰️SL: 2320
⬆️TP1: 2331
⬆️TP2: 2336
XAUUSD Is it oversold?Gold (XAUUSD) delivered our expected pump and dump move following the higher than expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday:
It almost hit our 2280 Target, so we recommend taking the handsome profits as there is high probability of a rebound towards 2360 and another dump. We are willing to re-sell there and target 2280 or if the 2277.50 Support breaks (candle closing below it), in which case our bearish break-out Target will be 2240, which would represent a potential contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
As mentioned on our previous study, the current Rectangle pattern since mid April is fairly similar to the one from late October 2023 to late February 2024.
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GOLD continuing downtrendOANDA:XAUUSD reached a peak of $2,450 in May but has since fallen over 4%. This shift indicates a change in investor sentiment, with bullish investors likely seeking other opportunities. The weakness in gold may persist due to factors like inflation and the US central bank's restrictive stance.
Traders watching short positions should pay attention to the $2,335 support zone. This area combines important technical indicators, such as a key trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. If the price decisively falls below $2,335 with above-average trading volume, it would be a strong selling signal.
If the price drops below $2,335, the next important level to watch is the 50-day simple moving average at $2,325. Breaking this support could lead to a further decline, with potential downside targets around $2,265, which is a critical Fibonacci level near this month's lowest point.
If bulls regain control and prices rise, resistance at $2,365 and $2,377 may pose a challenge. However, surpassing this level could change bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a rally towards $2,420. Further strength could even bring the all-time high back into play.
GOLD moves sideways ahead of Fed's favorite inflation dataDuring the trading session on the Asian market on Friday (May 31), spot gold decreased slightly, currently at 2,339 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to stimulate the market trend.
Gold prices recovered some of Wednesday's losses on Thursday after the US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy was slowing. US GDP data has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year.
Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the US quarterly real GDP rate in the first quarter was 1.3%, below the previous baseline value of 1.3%. .6%, reflecting lower-than-expected consumer spending.
Personal spending, the main growth driver of the US economy, increased by 2.0%, compared to the previous initial value of 2.5%.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 219,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended May 25, compared with expectations of 218,000 and a previous figure of 215,000.
U.S. economic growth was slower than in the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that higher borrowing costs set by the Federal Reserve are having an impact on the economy. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor revealed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is increasing. These two factors have weakened the Dollar in the short term.
Today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April will be released.
Surveys show that the US PCE price index in April is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and increase 2.7% year-on-year.
In terms of more important core data, surveys show that the US core PCE price index for April is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. .
As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers which in turn impacts the underlying trend of gold prices.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold is still mainly moving sideways due to the lack of a fundamental impact to create a surge, but overall, it has the conditions to decrease in price due to price activity below EMA21 and an uptrend. in the medium term was broken before.
Although the recovery from the technical level of 2,324 USD was noticeable to readers in yesterday's edition, it is also limited by the EMA21, and for gold to be eligible to continue its recovery, it needs to at least reach Price activity is above the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
On the other hand, gold is likely to fall more towards $2,305 – $2,300 once $2,324 is broken below.
During the day, the technical trend of gold price leans more towards the possibility of price decline with notable levels being listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,345 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374
⚰️SL: 2380
⬆️TP1: 2369
⬆️TP2: 2364
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308
⚰️SL: 2301
⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318
XAUUSD. Weekly trading levels 3 - 7.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
GOLD → Price dump before NFP. Will we go to 2400?FX:XAUUSD is manipulatively declining and catching buyers by surprise (liquidation) before the news. Price may start a strengthening phase from strong support (2330-2325) on the back of weak dollar
Traders are waiting for NFP to be released at 12:30 GMT. Yesterday, the market received 229K on Initial Jobless Claims, which generally gives hints of a possible scenario. The dollar index may continue to lose ground amid the general environment, markets are slowly but already starting to prepare for Fed policy easing.
NFP is expected to be 183K vs. previous 175K, but the focus is on the actual data. If those are below the expected 183K, the dollar will break key support and fall under a wave of sell-offs, which would be a favorable scenario for gold. But, the problem with news is its unpredictability. Data above 185K may strengthen the dollar (But not for long).
Resistance levels: 2354, 2374
Support levels: 2328
There is liquidation and strong selling by buyers, but it happens before the news ( there are interesting thoughts, but... ). Below 2328 the price may not be allowed (from a technical point of view) and it would be logical to expect a false breakdown or a rebound from the liquidity block to which the price has approached.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → ECB rate and NFP in the US. What to expect?FX:XAUUSD is supposedly ending the correction wave on the background of fundamentally weaker dollar. ECB rate and US news (Initial Jobless Claims & NonFarm Payrolls) ahead
The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at the end of its June policy meeting later today.
Meanwhile, markets now have a better chance of an imminent Fed rate cut amid signs of a slowing US economy. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continue to act as a safe-haven price for gold. Also, everyone is interested in the NFP (as one of the first signs of the Fed's readiness to loosen the policy), which will be published on Friday.
Technically, gold is forming a false break of MA-50 on D1, and breaking trend resistance on H1. All eyes are on the near-term support at 2354-2350
Resistance levels: 2374, 2405
Support levels: 2354, 2350. 2328
Possible support retest (false breakdown or intermediate struggle), which may lead to strengthening of the price. On the background of news, volatility may increase.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The market is waiting for the news. What could happen?FX:XAUUSD in consolidation ahead of the news. The price after strong sell-offs is accumulating potential, traders are not doing anything yet, at the same time the dollar is breaking trend support.
Stalemate situation. A consolidation range is marked on the main chart. It is acceptable to trade from the boundaries of the range either breakout or false breakdown.
The complexity of the overall situation is that the news is an unpredictable part of trading. On the technical side: Gold is weak, there is no strong buyer in the market yet (Maybe they are waiting for news). But based on TA, I would see the market as preparing for a break of 2325 followed by a fall to 2300-2275. Fundamentally, the US still has high inflation and the regulators will not let the dollar fall much. DXY is breaking the upside support (which is supposedly a downside signal) but it still has not reached the support and liquidity zone, which is also a sign of a strong index.
Resistance levels: 2341, 2351
Support levels: 2325, 2315
Based on the technical behavior of the gold price, a break of 2325 and consolidation of the price below this area will provoke sales. Breakout of 2345-2350 will provoke buying. The situation is complicated by the upcoming news.
Regards R. Linda!
Bullish falling wedge pattern with Gold #XAUUSD
Timeframe 2H
Gold dropped from 2450 to 2310, now she is trying to build a bullish falling wedge pattern to reversal ( end of iv )
Elliot Wave has many scenarios but this zone has high R/R
for this case, it is invalid if Gold has the new low ( < 2314)
if I am correct gold must break the green line and the Close price must stand above the yellow line.
TP1 2398
TP2 2421
TP3 open
Worst case if stop out ( tight stop loss)
Gold will drop below 2280 to 2228
I will share more in X.
Get support from Middle East, GOLD recovers, bound by EMA21Complicated geopolitical developments are counterbalancing the Fed's recent stance to support gold prices. On the one hand, the Fed strengthens the Dollar compared to other major currencies. On the other hand, gold is also supported. Support when potential market risks are likely to flare up and increase the attractiveness of Precious Metals that do not generate yields.
Notable news in the Middle East
According to the British news network "Middle East Eye", citing Israeli media on May 27, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire at the Rafah border gate on the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip that day. An Egyptian soldier died in the fire.
The incident was first reported by Israel's Channel 13 and Channel 14, which they called "unusual". Regarding details of the incident, it was reported that Egyptian soldiers opened fire on an Israeli truck at the Rafah intersection and Israeli soldiers returned fire. But this statement has not been officially confirmed.
Amid the deteriorating situation in Rafah, this news sent safe-haven gold rapidly higher. However, gold also needs more of these types of impacts to reach its original price of $2,400.
Egypt's independent English-language newspaper Daily News cited sources as saying Egyptian soldiers were affected by last Sunday's "Rafa massacre", in which Israeli bombings destroyed a refugee camp in Rafah, killing 45 Palestinians.
The Israel Defense Forces said a "shooting incident occurred" on the Egyptian border early Monday morning and that it was investigating the incident and that "dialogue with Egypt is ongoing."
A spokesman for the Egyptian Armed Forces also confirmed the exchange of fire late Monday, saying that an Egyptian soldier was killed in the incident.
In addition to closely monitoring the situation taking place in the Middle East, traders also need to pay attention to developments from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, etc. Basically, traders need to pay attention to everything. Regardless of any major geopolitical developments happening globally, gold is an asset that easily reacts to sudden news on the market.
In recent history, the US-China Trade War, developments in the Middle East at the end of 2019, the Ukraine conflict, and now continuing the war in the Middle East... have all created huge mutations in the world. gold market.
During this trading year, we “traders” need to get used to gold moving 2-3% or more in a day, which will happen even more frequently in the near future.
Every time a conflict shows signs of escalation, the price of gold creates a new era peak!
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is trying to operate around the EMA21 level as it recovers from the technical level of $2,324, which readers noticed in last Friday's edition. However, the recovery momentum is limited with EMA21.
For the gold price to technically qualify for upside, it would at least need to break out and return to operating above the trend and near-term target level followed by the 0.236 trend-following Fibonacci extension %, more than the original price of 2,400USD.
Meanwhile, gold is at risk of a further decline if it sells off below the $2,324 support level with a target then around $2,305 – $2,300. Therefore, open long positions should be considered protecting behind the $2,324 level as a reasonable position.
During the day, the trend of gold price is neutral with price activity intentionally sticking around the EMA21, and the technical levels of interest will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,345 – 2,324USD
Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2389 - 2387
⚰️SL: 2393
⬆️TP1: 2382
⬆️TP2: 2377
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2345 - 2347
⚰️SL: 2341
⬆️TP1: 2352
⬆️TP2: 2357
GOLD → Consolidation before NFP. What to prepare for?FX:XAUUSD is strengthening after a false breakdown of range support and is testing resistance with a subsequent bounce. Price is forming a flat and is not ready to go up or down yet. There are reasons for this:
Traders are waiting for news that will start to be released in the second half of this week starting Wednesday. The focus is on ISM PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, NFP. Accordingly, I would recommend watching the flat for now: 2354 - 2328 (2320). Most likely the price will be inside this consolidation for some time, the dollar is also standing still. Perhaps there will be an attempt to breakout (false breakout) or even a retest of more distant levels, but in general, due to the fact that there are no major players in the game yet, who are not eager for pre-temporal action, the price will consolidate within the specified range.
Resistance levels: 2354, 2374
Support levels: 2328, 2322, 2315
A quick approach to the liquidity zone may lead to a rebound or a false breakdown, accordingly, there is a chance to see local strengthening. We are looking at an intra-range trading strategy.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD recovered to EMA21, Middle East situation tense
On the Asian market on Monday (May 27), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD increase rapidly in the short term. Gold price touched 2,347 USD/ounce, setting a session high and increasing strongly by more than 13 USD during the day.
OANDA:XAUUSD The gains were supported by a weaker US Dollar and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tuesday's speeches by Fed officials Bowman, Mester and Kashkari will be closely watched.
Affected by the Memorial Day/Spring Bank Holiday, US and UK stock markets will be closed for one day on May 27; CME Group's U.S. crude oil futures and precious metals trading will be suspended at 01:30 Hanoi time on May 28.
Gold will get more data from speeches by Fed officials on Tuesday, including those from Bowman, Mester and Kashkari.
The US's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) released on Thursday will be the focus, with GDP expected to grow 1.5% in the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data could boost the Dollar and continue to pressure gold, whereas weaker-than-expected data would see gold supported and the Dollar weaker.
In terms of the fundamental picture, gold is receiving some support that could be transformative as the geopolitical situation becomes complicated again. Previous lessons show that every time the geopolitical situation becomes complicated and escalates, gold sets a new all-time peak.
The Israeli army has conducted many air strikes! Killed about 200 people
Early on the morning of May 27 local time, the Gaza Strip Media Office issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, the Israeli army conducted 10 attacks on 10 areas in the Gaza Strip such as Jebaliya, Nusayrat, and City. Gaza, and northwestern Rafah. Air strikes targeted evacuation centers run by multiple United Nations agencies, killing a total of about 200 people.
A day earlier, the Qassan Brigades, an armed faction affiliated with Hamas, said it had launched a "massive rocket" attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, in response to the "massacre of civilians by the regime". Zionism".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, receiving support from the $2,324 gold level rose quickly to test the $2,345 EMA21 price point which is also the short-term target recovery level sent to you in the weekly publication.
Now, with the geopolitical situation becoming more complicated, once gold breaks out of the 21-day EMA and moves above the 21-day moving average and returns to the trend, it is well placed to continue. Technically bullish with a short-term target then aiming for the 0.236% Fibonacci extension and more to the original price of 2,400USD.
On the other hand, EMA21 is also the nearest resistance, which provides expectations for the possibility of a price decrease with a target level at 2,324USD, more at 2,305USD.
During the day, the technical outlook is still leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease in the case of qualifying for the above increase.
Notable prices are listed below.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD
Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2380 - 2378
⚰️SL: 2384
⬆️TP1: 2373
⬆️TP2: 2368
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308
⚰️SL: 2302
⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318
GOLD down 0.17%, focus on GDP and Williams' speechThe benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased more than 1% yesterday and is currently in the Asian trading session today May 30, also increasing 0.09% and surpassing 4.6%. , causing gold prices to lose support and continue to decline. Gold spot price OANDA:XAUUSD currently reported at around 2,334USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to 0.17% on the day.
After the price of OANDA:XAUUSD reaching a new all-time high, it encountered a sell-off and fell back to more than 120 US Dollars an ounce from a high of 2,450 USD/ounce.
The recent trend of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time will support the US Dollar and high US bond yields, putting some pressure on the precious metals market.
However, from a more general perspective if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the future, it will significantly support gold prices. In addition, with the support of factors such as central banks continuously increasing gold purchases and the increasing instability of the global geopolitical situation, the potential for gold prices to increase in the near future still remains.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have made hawkish comments, stimulating demand for the dollar recently. As a result, market sentiment worsened and the US Dollar increased in value.
Traders were still absorbing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He said Fed officials are not ignoring interest rate hikes, adding that they could cut rates up to twice by the end of 2024 in case they do.
This week, traders are preparing to release April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year-over-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month. If data shows a rise in inflation this will boost sentiment to keep interest rates high for longer. This situation is negative for gold prices because the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets such as gold is increasing. This scenario will be beneficial for interest-earning assets and US Dollar yields.
During this trading day, traders should also pay attention to the US GDP Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Speech by FOMC member Williams.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After the gold price failed to break above the trend (a) note to readers in previous issues it came under pressure and fell back to test the initial notable support level at 2,324 USD.
It is worth mentioning that the gold price has fallen below the EMA21 level, providing favorable conditions for a bearish outlook in the near future.
If gold falls below the initial support at $2,324 it could continue to decline towards $2,305 – $2,300 in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) is still pointing down without reaching the oversold level, which shows that there is still technical room for downside.
Only when gold moves above the trend will it have enough conditions to continue to recover and increase in price. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a decrease in price with notable positions being identified. listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2379 - 2377
⚰️SL: 2383
⬆️TP1: 2372
⬆️TP2: 2367
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308
⚰️SL: 2301
⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318
