GOLD (GC1!, XAUUSD) Now BEARISH After Market Structure Shift!A clear change in the state of delivery!
Look for the retracement to start from within the +FVG.
Gc1
GOLD spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time highOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS
- Gold spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time high
- FX markets captured the flight to safety while US equity markets were shut
- Gold volatility index eyed ahead of the weekend
OANDA:XAUUSD SPIKED HIGHER, FALLING NARROWLY SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME HIGH
Gold prices surged on Friday morning following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran, raising concerns of a broader conflict. The uncertainty in the Middle East has contributed to the increase in gold prices, approaching its all-time high of $2431. Although gold remains overbought on the daily chart, the bullish momentum seems to be slowing down. The support level is at $2360, with further interest around $2320. Despite a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, central bank buying continues to support the upward trend in gold.
GOLD → The structure of the bull market is at risk. 2300??FX:XAUUSD is breaking the bullish trend structure, earlier I pointed out that the market is preparing for a reversal amid liquidity capture at the expense of buyers. The market is testing support for a breakout
Idea from April 19: GOLD → One step away from a correction? What's going on?
Selling since the opening of the session. Price is testing local lows and forming an entry into the risk zone. Possible shakeout before the subsequent fall. Last week a major player was collecting liquidity at the expense of buyers, this can be seen in the long tails of daily candles, volumes and trading relative to the 2400 zone.
At the moment we should pay attention to the zone 2354 - 2365. There may be an active struggle in this zone (shaking, level sawing, long consolidations), but now there is a prospect of correction to 2330, 2300
Resistance levels: 2365, 2400.
Support levels: 2354, 2328, 2300
Technically, strong sellers are emerging in the market and they are building limit resistance zones. The market is not ready to pass through 2400 yet, so we should wait for a sideways range or correction
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Technical profit taking started.Last week (April 15, see chart below), we discussed the 'necessity' of Gold (XAUUSD) for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see, we did get indeed the expected rejection at the top on Friday and this week we have started with almost a -5% already. The 1D RSI Double Topped on overbought territory and now is on a Lower Low. This RSI pattern since the October 06 2023 Low is very similar to the sequence that started on November 03 2022. As you can see on both occasions, Gold traded on Bullish Megaphones.
The 2022/23 Megaphone hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) once its RSI started printing the correction sequence it has now. In fact the 1D MA100 provided the last bounce on both Megaphones (February 14 2024 and March 09 2023).
As a result, we remain bearish on Gold, targeting 2200 (0.382 Fib and potential contact with the 1D MA200) on the medium-term. Ideally, the best level to buy again for the long-term would be when the 1D RSI hits the oversold barrier (30.00) again, but until then we will follow up with many updates.
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GC1! (GOLD)... Tentatively BULLISH!Bias is tentatively Bullish.
Continues to make HLs, but
no HHs, in a tight range. Price
is close to filling in the big
wick the prev. week.
Looking to see if the PWH
is raided early in the week.
If so, I expect price to go
from External ->Internal, down
the the W FVG/+OB area from
there.
But price may need to rebalance
the +FVG before moving higher.
Waiting and watching for
definitive price action.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
LIKE or BOOST this post, if you would. I would be appreciate it.
SUBSCRIBE if you want to catch all of my future postings!
GOLD → One step away from a correction? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is stopping after a strong rally. The price tests 2400 and forms a local maximum, but what is surprising is that the market does not let the price beyond 2400 yet.
The market is starting to gain liquidity at the expense of the buyer. Price comes back into the range after attempting to break 2400 and eliminates the buyers. The first bells are appearing for a possible start of correction after a strong rally.
At the moment it is worth paying attention to the range 2365 - 2400, there is a chance that the price will stay inside this corridor for some time. Since the trend is bullish, we should still expect growth in the future, but there is a risk and panic area on the chart, if it is broken through, a deep correction to 0.382 Fibo or 0.382 on D1 may start.
Resistance levels: 2400, 2418, 2431
Support levels: 2365, 2300
The bullish trend is in priority and it is worth to build your trading strategy in relation to the trend. False break of 2365 and consolidation above 2372 may favor the growth, as well as break and consolidation of the price above 2400.
But the chart is beginning to show the preconditions for a possible bearish correction. We continue to watch the level of 2365. Breakdown, updating of the local minimum of 2352 and consolidation of the price below this area will form a downside potential
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! MCX:GOLD1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase.
Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack.
Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase.
Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023.
Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors.
- Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe.
- Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.
This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21.
In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility.
The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD.
According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq.
ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran.
Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off.
With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy.
Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability.
The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21.
Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside.
Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429
⚰️SL: 2435
⬆️TP1: 2424
⬆️TP2: 2419
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337
⚰️SL: 2331
⬆️TP1: 2342
⬆️TP2: 2347
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase.
Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than.
Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold.
The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected.
With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%.
Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%.
The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge)
US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal)
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.”
The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established.
The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD
Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407
⚰️SL: 2413
⬆️TP1: 2402
⬆️TP2: 2397
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359
⚰️SL: 2353
⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2369
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year.
Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions.
On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement.
After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%.
The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations.
At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend.
In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point.
Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions.
The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429
⚰️SL: 2435
⬆️TP1: 2424
⬆️TP2: 2419
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353
⚰️SL: 2348
⬆️TP1: 2358
⬆️TP2: 2363
BUY XAUUSDAs you can notice on the chart, the buying power is stronger than the selling power in yhe last move of the marker, and the last move just confirmed it for us, you can BUY now and PAT ATTENTION to the merket in the selling zone since it is a strong area because you might quick exit.
Don't hesitate to ask for further questions!
GOLD → Range 2365-2400. Will the price continue to grow? FX:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above 2365. This area is an intermediate bottom and plays an important role for the bulls in the medium term. The range of 2365-2400 is being formed.
Idea of Apr. 16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest
In general, everything is the same, but after a strong rally, the price makes a small stop and starts to enter liquidity zones more often, which has not happened for 2-3 weeks. Apparently, the energy is exhausted and the market maker starts to collect liquidity from the market with the help of traps. Gold is still trading above key support levels and looks strong enough to test or even renew the global high
Resistance levels: 2395, 2400, 2430
Support levels: 2365, MA-200, trend support
The price is testing MA-200 and forming a false breakdown of 2365. The market reduces volatility and goes into the waiting phase before the news, the growth may continue either after the support retest or at the breakout of 2380.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD taking profits after continuously creating highsGold hit a new record of $2,430 last week during the New York session. It has seen gains in seven of the past eight weeks, increasing by over 17% since mid-February. This is despite the strength of the US dollar and a hawkish repricing of US interest rate expectations. The usual negative relationship between gold and US real yields has broken down, leaving traders confused.
Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold, although these risks have intensified only recently and haven't been a predominant theme for an extended period. To add context, investors have been nervous about Iran's potential retaliation against Israel following the bombing of its embassy in Syria. Such action could escalate tensions in the region and spill over into a wider conflict.
DEEPER LOOK INTO CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS
There are several other reasons that could explain why gold has done so well this year. Here are some possible explanations for its ascent:
The Momentum Trap: Gold's relentless rise could be fueled by a self-fulfilling speculative frenzy. This trend-following behavior can create vertical rallies that are often unsustainable over the long term. Should this dynamic be at play right now, a sharp downward correction could unfold once sentiment shifts and valuations reset.
Hard landing: Some market participants may be hedging an economic downturn caused by the aggressive monetary policy tightening from 2022-2023 and the fact that policymakers could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to stalling progress on disinflation.
Inflation comeback: Gold bulls could be taking a strategic long-term approach, betting that the Fed will cut rates no matter what as insurance policy to prevent adverse developments in an election year. Cutting rates while consumer prices remain well above the 2% target risks triggering a new inflationary wave that would ultimately benefit precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold has rallied this week, setting a new all-time high near $2,430. However, the price eventually fell to that level and closed at $2,344 on Friday. If the reversal persists in the coming trading sessions, support will emerge at $2,305, followed by $2,267. With further weakness, all eyes will be on $2,225.
On the other hand, if they rotate higher and rally again, the record high of $2,430 will be the first line of defense against further advances. With the market stretched and in overbought territory, gold may struggle to overcome this barrier, but in the event of a breakout, we could see gold prices move towards $2,500.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Support: 2,319 – 2,267 - 2,225USD
Resistance: 2,365 - 2,430USD
EURUSD stabilizes ahead of press conferenceOANDA:EURUSD , CHARTS AND ANALYSIS
- ECB edges further towards a June rate cut.
- Will President Lagarde begin signaling further rate cuts?
The ECB maintained its policy levers unchanged, as expected. However, they stated that if their assessment of inflation and monetary policy transmission improves, they may consider reducing current restrictions. This follows their previous mention of June as a potential meeting for a policy decision, increasing the likelihood of a cut on June 6th.
Financial markets continue to price in a 25 basis point at the June meeting and have recently increased the probability of an additional cut at the July 18th meeting. It may well be that the ECB cuts twice before the Fed makes its first move.
OANDA:EURUSD fell sharply yesterday, due to post-CPI US dollar strength, leaving the Euro as the next driver of any move. Initial support is seen around 1.0698, a double-low made in early February, before the 1.0635 – May 31st swing-low – and 1.0610 – Fibonacci retracement – come into play.
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices.
The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates.
March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices.
📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level.
Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly.
The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.
GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest FX:XAUUSD is trading exclusively in a bull market. Quick and temporary reactions to the news are quickly exhausted and buyers regain the upper hand on the metal's price.
Yesterday the price made another retest of the support at 2330, which has the status of an intermediate bottom. This area held the price and after that the market returned to its true direction. On the background of activity of dynamic buyers the price tests 2390 and forms correction to the support. From 2365 the continuation of growth within the uptrend is also expected. Today from the news only the speech of the head of the Fed at 17:15 GMT.
Support levels: 2365, 2330
Resistance levels: 2390, 2400
Technically, a retest of the support is forming on the background of the uptrend. The 2365 area plays an important role, as the market earlier emphasized the presence of this area. A false breakdown before further growth is possible.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The price is not falling on the US news. Target 2450?FX:XAUUSD is showing strength as a hedge asset. The price continues to indicate to us that it intends to go even higher. The market is cleaned up after the shakeout and the big player continues to play his game.
(Idea from Apr.16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest)
Bulls form another intermediate bottom at 2365, building a limit support area. The price bounces and strengthens almost to 2400. Gold shows itself as a safe asset and finds interest from investors.
On H1, the price breaks local resistance and heads towards 2400. At the moment, the market's target is to break 2400 and reach the liquidity area of 2431.
Resistance levels: 2431, 2400
Support levels: 2371, MA-50, 2365
Technically, this is a strong bull market. It is worth looking for strong support areas to buy or strong resistance areas to trade on a breakout. Potential target is 2400, 2430, 2450.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD reversed sharply from record peakThe gold market heated up last week due to increasing geopolitical tensions. Israel is preparing for a potential attack from Iran, while Iran has vowed to seek revenge on Israel following an attack on their consulate in Damascus. This news is expected to drive safe-haven gold buying over the weekend.
The US Department of Labor's report states that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in March 2024, which is lower than economists' predicted 0.3% increase. Investors are acknowledging the potential for prolonged inflation and expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a patient approach to monetary policy.
After rising to 2,431 USD/ounce, the highest price in history, gold encountered profit-taking pressure, causing the price of this precious metal to decline sharply. While gold failed to hold above $2,400 an ounce, analysts noted that it remains strong as it prepares to set another weekly record. The new record comes even as markets begin to assess the possibility of an interest rate cut in June after March inflation was higher than expected.
XAUUSD: Overbought but still bullish above the 4H MA100.Gold is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.650, MACD = 67.600, ADX = 69.434) and appears to be unphazed by the recent rejection at the top of the Channel Up that pulled back to the 4H MA50. This is basically a consolidation that can be evolved to a similar pattern with March's. It was the 4H MA100 that held it on an uptrend at the time and has been holding since February 23rd. We remain bullish as long as it continues to hold, targeting the top of the Channel on a +10.54% increase (TP = 2,550). If the 4H MA100 is crossed, we will go short aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 2,220).
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Gold might be in a late stage of the rallyGold saw a pullback of nearly $100 from a high of $2,431, followed by a slight rebound, dragging the price to $2,370 per troy ounce. This increasing volatility begs the question of the market’s state. To address this, we would like to note that the rising volume has been accompanying the increasing price, which is positive (and, indeed, quite impressive, considering how much gold has run up in the past year). In addition to that, silver and some of the mining stocks within the precious metals sector began to catch up with gold recently, which could indicate the shiny metal is entering a late stage of the rally. With that said, we think there is still a significant chance for gold to run higher (likely beyond $2,500). But then, we are also well aware that certain market developments (if they play out) might hold gold down for much longer (including the stock market downturn, steady or higher interest rates for longer, etc.).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Green arrows highlight a simultaneous rise in the price and volume.
Illustration 1.02
The weekly graph of XAUUSD depicts two multi-year resistance levels from the past, which now act as critical support levels. Following a breakout above the first level in June 2019, gold rallied nearly 51% before forming another wall of resistance at $2,075. This level was first time broken (temporarily) in late 2023 and then again in late February 2024 (now with the price staying above it); when measuring from the second breakout level at $2,075 until the recent peak of $2,431, gold rallied slightly more than 17%, potentially leaving some more upside left (though, unlikely another 30% without a significant pullback to the base).
Illustration 1.03
The daily chart of XAUUSD above shows alternative support levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US CPI data could put GOLD into accumulationAfter the US announced March inflation data, OANDA:XAUUSD is on the defensive. The data showed an increase in both monthly and yearly readings and could weaken the Fed's intention to ease policy. The data provided some resistance to the precious metal after its recent run of heat.
The US consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% monthly and 3.5% annually, exceeding expectations and recovering from the previous month. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, also exceeded expectations, holding steady at 0.4% month-on-month and increasing 3.8% year-over-year, in line with consistent with February data. Strong CPI data forced traders to reduce bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In general, the Fed's sustained high interest rates will put downward pressure on prices for non-yielding assets such as gold because it increases the cost of investing in these assets.
Still, gold has remained an anomaly over the past few weeks, with demand remaining strong even as traders bet big on the prospect of interest rate cuts at the Reserve's June and July meetings. Federal. Gold has remained in focus over the past few weeks as tensions in the Middle East escalated again, underpinning safe-haven buying and pent-up demand for the precious metal from global central banks. Central banks are hoarding gold to prevent a possible economic recession.
Overall, gold still has a lot of fundamental room to support price increases but with the newly released CPI data it will be held back a bit without changing the main market trend.
As told to readers through short comments during the day, CPI data can create short-term downward adjustments without changing the trend, so short positions are opened in search of profits. Expecting a downward adjustment should also be kept at short-term levels. Almost the current market is just waiting for a drop to buy, there is too much geopolitical instability growing.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still maintaining stability with short, medium and long-term trends being bullish and after yesterday's slight correction, gold moved above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, causing a decline. greater chance of downward adjustment.
On the prospect of a downside correction, gold would have more technical room to fall further towards the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension if it is sold below $2,331, also This means that the level of 2,331USD is the closest support currently.
Meanwhile, the notable resistance levels at $2,355 – $2,365 will be important technical levels as once they are broken gold is likely to continue making new all-time highs with a target level. Then at 2,382USD the price point of the Fibonacci extension is 1%.
During the day, with the newly published CPI data, gold is likely to have a downward correction and enter accumulation with the main uptrend remaining unchanged. Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,331 – 2,320USD
Resistance: 2,358 – 2,365 - 2,375USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354
⚰️SL: 2360
⬆️TP1: 2349
⬆️TP2: 2344
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304
⚰️SL: 2298
⬆️TP1: 2309
⬆️TP2: 2314
