Gc1
GOLD → Correction before the news. A range is forming FX:XAUUSD on the background of dollar correction is strengthening to the resistance of the bearish channel, which was formed on the background of sell-offs. Ahead of strong news, on the background of which the price may reach the liquidity zone before further decline.
On the high timeframe, a false breakdown of support is formed, liquidity gathering and after consolidation the price is heading towards the liquidity above. In general, the correction phase is not over yet. A sideways range may form within the price movement, but there is a high probability that the price on the background of CPI news will reach the channel resistance and form a bounce down.
The global trend is bullish, the local trend is bearish. Fundamental background is neutral (for the moment).
Resistance levels: 2344, 2359, 2365
Support levels: 2328, 2305
Buyers and sellers are dividing the price field between them. As gold stops and stabilizes, the price starts to pay attention to the dollar and the news. CPI is ahead which could increase volatility.
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY broke above the 152.00 resistance levelThe US dollar surged on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected US inflation numbers. This led to USDJPY reaching new highs for 2024 and its strongest level since 1990. The March Consumer Price Index report showed persistent inflation in the North American economy, reducing expectations for a June FOMC rate cut. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% YoY, surpassing forecasts and accelerating from February's 3.2%. The core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, also exceeded expectations at 3.8%, indicating a potential increase in price pressures.
Wall Street reacted swiftly, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upwards across the board on bets that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain a restrictive position for an extended period. Against this backdrop, the U.S. 2-year yield jumped more than 20 basis points, coming within striking distance from recapturing the 5.0% psychological mark.
Traders also adjusted their view on the FOMC’s trajectory, pushing back on the timing and magnitude of future reductions in borrowing costs. That said, futures contracts now price in less than 40 basis points of easing for the year, with the first potential cut likely occurring in September. The table below shows current meeting probabilities.
Fed Chair Powell recently downplayed inflation concerns at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. However, recent high CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of policy outlook and lead to more hawkish rhetoric, which could benefit the U.S. dollar. While the dollar may consolidate in the short term, it's uncertain if it can continue to appreciate against the yen as Japanese authorities may intervene to support their currency.
OANDA:USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
USDJPY broke through resistance at 152.00, reaching its highest level since June 1990. Without intervention, speculators may attack the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 155.70. If prices fall below 152.00, support is expected at 150.90 and failure to defend this area could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day moving average at 150.00, with channel support near 149.25 being closely watched.
GOLD → Bulls and bears still can't split the 2300 areaFX:XAUUSD is forming a sideways range and continues to test a strong resistance area. Bulls and bears continue to fight and still cannot share a strong area. Possible shake-up.
Gold is in the active phase of the correction, which started as early as last Friday and we were ready for it. The price is already down 5.7% from the high and most likely this is not the limit. A descending price channel starts to appear on H1, which generally determines the medium-term outlook for us.
Below the zone of 2330 a range is formed with the purpose of accumulation of potential. At the same time the price is testing resistance and there may be a shakeout or price entry into deeper liquidity areas with the purpose of further decline.
Resistance levels: 2330, 2355, 2365
Support levels: 2305, 2290, 2267
The liquidity area on the resistance side may be tested with the aim of further decline, as the market is currently in a downward correction phase.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD. Zones for intraday trading 04/24/2024During the day I trade from these levels.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted.
Levels are drawn before the European session, based on volumes. Used as interest levels for intraday trading. When returning to the level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded both for a rebound from the level and for a breakdown of the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat.
TV does not allow publishing timeframes smaller than M15. It is more convenient to look at reactions to levels and search for entry points on m5-m1.
Don’t forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!!
GOLD → Sales may continue. Target 2150?FX:XAUUSD is moving out of the sideways range downward. The price is testing 2328 within the framework of correction on the background of news. Earlier, the structure of the bull market was broken, which in general can determine the medium-term potential.
“GOLD → Bears win. Downward counter-trend correction ↓”
The price is testing 2328, which is actively defended by sellers on the background of correction and sell-off wave. Yesterday the price of metal gained a little strength on the background of PMI, but the reaction may be already exhausted, it can be seen on the set-up relative to 2328.
The technical downward movement may continue, as the nearest potential target on D1 may be the 2150-2175 area.
Resistance levels: 2328, 2333
Support levels: 2316, 2305, 2267
The fall may continue. I pointed out the reasons for the fall yesterday and it is related to either stopping the rally or profit taking at 2400. The bullish structure is under threat, there is a strong sell-off in the market.
Regards R. Linda!
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 22 - April 26]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased mainly due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold prices recorded a fifth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since January 2023. Despite strong gains in the dollar and bond yields, expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024 have faded. decline.
Israel's response comes a week after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel pushed gold prices to a record high of over $2,426 an ounce.
Recent statements from Fed officials suggest there is no rush to cut interest rates in the short term. This view is echoed not only by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but also by John Williams of the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed).
According to Kitco, in addition to persistent inflation, it is important to emphasize that the continuously tightening labor market reinforces the view of a strong economy, supporting the "soft landing" scenario, indicating that the The expected first interest rate cut will be delayed. It is worth noting that the market focus has shifted slightly from Fed policy to geopolitical risks, influencing investor strategies and gold pricing.
Israel reportedly struck back at Iran on Friday morning, hitting a military site with drones, but it was limited and did not appear to cause much damage. Gold prices rose nearly 1.6% after concerns about widespread conflict in the Middle East disrupted global markets following the above event. Fed officials agree that interest rate cuts are not urgent. The market currently predicts the probability of an interest rate cut in September is about 67%. High interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive.
Next week is a week of little economic data of note, as traders focus on March U.S. new home sales on Tuesday and March durable goods on Wednesday.
On Thursday, there will be the release of the first quarter US GDP report, quarterly PCE data, weekly initial jobless claims and pending home sales data. The week's most notable data will appear on Thursday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold remains stable with technical conditions supporting an upward price trend as reported to readers throughout recent publications. The short-term uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the medium-term trend is noticed by the EMA21.
The weekly close above the 1% Fibonacci extension opens up the prospect of continued upside next week with a near-term target of $2,400 full price and beyond all-time highs.
Currently, there are no notable resistance points to set expectations for a possible downward adjustment. If gold is sold off below 2,365 USD, it will have conditions to technically adjust downward to the target level. then at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension point.
The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price falls and adjusting to around 2320, and selling if the price increases to reach 2473.
Looking ahead, gold remains tilted towards the bullish case and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
Sell Stop GCM2024Been a while, Ill be getting back i the mix, didnt see a set up yesterday I liked for Technical Tuesday, heres what I like today.
GOLD → Bears win. Downward counter-trend correction ↓FX:XAUUSD is entering the correction phase. Earlier, based on technical and candlestick nuances on D1, I warned about the approaching decline. Gold is eliminating buyers and apparently heading towards 2267, 2228.
April 19 idea: The market is getting ready to turn around, collecting liquidity from buyers
On H1 the price is forming a bearish momentum, since the opening of the session on Tuesday, the price has overcome a 1.8% retracement. The reasons for the fall may be both profit taking in the 2400 zone, after which the market maker changed the course to liquidate traders and balance the market (I remind - at the moment the imbalance is in favor of buyers), and the correction after a strong rally, the price is heading downward in order to find strong support zones and form a market bottom.
Resistance levels: 2300, 2305, 2328
Support levels: 2267, 2250, 2228
Today traders are waiting for PMI. Positive data for the dollar will only strengthen the fall of gold, but the negative PMI will weaken the strong fall. But, in general, at the moment, the medium-term course of the metal is clear to everyone.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD (GC1!, XAUUSD) Now BEARISH After Market Structure Shift!A clear change in the state of delivery!
Look for the retracement to start from within the +FVG.
GOLD spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time highOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS
- Gold spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time high
- FX markets captured the flight to safety while US equity markets were shut
- Gold volatility index eyed ahead of the weekend
OANDA:XAUUSD SPIKED HIGHER, FALLING NARROWLY SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME HIGH
Gold prices surged on Friday morning following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran, raising concerns of a broader conflict. The uncertainty in the Middle East has contributed to the increase in gold prices, approaching its all-time high of $2431. Although gold remains overbought on the daily chart, the bullish momentum seems to be slowing down. The support level is at $2360, with further interest around $2320. Despite a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, central bank buying continues to support the upward trend in gold.
GOLD → The structure of the bull market is at risk. 2300??FX:XAUUSD is breaking the bullish trend structure, earlier I pointed out that the market is preparing for a reversal amid liquidity capture at the expense of buyers. The market is testing support for a breakout
Idea from April 19: GOLD → One step away from a correction? What's going on?
Selling since the opening of the session. Price is testing local lows and forming an entry into the risk zone. Possible shakeout before the subsequent fall. Last week a major player was collecting liquidity at the expense of buyers, this can be seen in the long tails of daily candles, volumes and trading relative to the 2400 zone.
At the moment we should pay attention to the zone 2354 - 2365. There may be an active struggle in this zone (shaking, level sawing, long consolidations), but now there is a prospect of correction to 2330, 2300
Resistance levels: 2365, 2400.
Support levels: 2354, 2328, 2300
Technically, strong sellers are emerging in the market and they are building limit resistance zones. The market is not ready to pass through 2400 yet, so we should wait for a sideways range or correction
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Technical profit taking started.Last week (April 15, see chart below), we discussed the 'necessity' of Gold (XAUUSD) for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see, we did get indeed the expected rejection at the top on Friday and this week we have started with almost a -5% already. The 1D RSI Double Topped on overbought territory and now is on a Lower Low. This RSI pattern since the October 06 2023 Low is very similar to the sequence that started on November 03 2022. As you can see on both occasions, Gold traded on Bullish Megaphones.
The 2022/23 Megaphone hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) once its RSI started printing the correction sequence it has now. In fact the 1D MA100 provided the last bounce on both Megaphones (February 14 2024 and March 09 2023).
As a result, we remain bearish on Gold, targeting 2200 (0.382 Fib and potential contact with the 1D MA200) on the medium-term. Ideally, the best level to buy again for the long-term would be when the 1D RSI hits the oversold barrier (30.00) again, but until then we will follow up with many updates.
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GC1! (GOLD)... Tentatively BULLISH!Bias is tentatively Bullish.
Continues to make HLs, but
no HHs, in a tight range. Price
is close to filling in the big
wick the prev. week.
Looking to see if the PWH
is raided early in the week.
If so, I expect price to go
from External ->Internal, down
the the W FVG/+OB area from
there.
But price may need to rebalance
the +FVG before moving higher.
Waiting and watching for
definitive price action.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
LIKE or BOOST this post, if you would. I would be appreciate it.
SUBSCRIBE if you want to catch all of my future postings!
GOLD → One step away from a correction? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is stopping after a strong rally. The price tests 2400 and forms a local maximum, but what is surprising is that the market does not let the price beyond 2400 yet.
The market is starting to gain liquidity at the expense of the buyer. Price comes back into the range after attempting to break 2400 and eliminates the buyers. The first bells are appearing for a possible start of correction after a strong rally.
At the moment it is worth paying attention to the range 2365 - 2400, there is a chance that the price will stay inside this corridor for some time. Since the trend is bullish, we should still expect growth in the future, but there is a risk and panic area on the chart, if it is broken through, a deep correction to 0.382 Fibo or 0.382 on D1 may start.
Resistance levels: 2400, 2418, 2431
Support levels: 2365, 2300
The bullish trend is in priority and it is worth to build your trading strategy in relation to the trend. False break of 2365 and consolidation above 2372 may favor the growth, as well as break and consolidation of the price above 2400.
But the chart is beginning to show the preconditions for a possible bearish correction. We continue to watch the level of 2365. Breakdown, updating of the local minimum of 2352 and consolidation of the price below this area will form a downside potential
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! MCX:GOLD1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase.
Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack.
Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase.
Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023.
Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors.
- Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe.
- Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.
This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21.
In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility.
The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD.
According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq.
ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran.
Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off.
With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy.
Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability.
The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21.
Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside.
Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429
⚰️SL: 2435
⬆️TP1: 2424
⬆️TP2: 2419
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337
⚰️SL: 2331
⬆️TP1: 2342
⬆️TP2: 2347
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase.
Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than.
Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold.
The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected.
With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%.
Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%.
The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge)
US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal)
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.”
The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established.
The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD
Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407
⚰️SL: 2413
⬆️TP1: 2402
⬆️TP2: 2397
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359
⚰️SL: 2353
⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2369
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year.
Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions.
On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement.
After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%.
The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations.
At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend.
In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point.
Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions.
The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD
Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429
⚰️SL: 2435
⬆️TP1: 2424
⬆️TP2: 2419
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353
⚰️SL: 2348
⬆️TP1: 2358
⬆️TP2: 2363
BUY XAUUSDAs you can notice on the chart, the buying power is stronger than the selling power in yhe last move of the marker, and the last move just confirmed it for us, you can BUY now and PAT ATTENTION to the merket in the selling zone since it is a strong area because you might quick exit.
Don't hesitate to ask for further questions!
GOLD → Range 2365-2400. Will the price continue to grow? FX:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above 2365. This area is an intermediate bottom and plays an important role for the bulls in the medium term. The range of 2365-2400 is being formed.
Idea of Apr. 16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest
In general, everything is the same, but after a strong rally, the price makes a small stop and starts to enter liquidity zones more often, which has not happened for 2-3 weeks. Apparently, the energy is exhausted and the market maker starts to collect liquidity from the market with the help of traps. Gold is still trading above key support levels and looks strong enough to test or even renew the global high
Resistance levels: 2395, 2400, 2430
Support levels: 2365, MA-200, trend support
The price is testing MA-200 and forming a false breakdown of 2365. The market reduces volatility and goes into the waiting phase before the news, the growth may continue either after the support retest or at the breakout of 2380.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD taking profits after continuously creating highsGold hit a new record of $2,430 last week during the New York session. It has seen gains in seven of the past eight weeks, increasing by over 17% since mid-February. This is despite the strength of the US dollar and a hawkish repricing of US interest rate expectations. The usual negative relationship between gold and US real yields has broken down, leaving traders confused.
Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold, although these risks have intensified only recently and haven't been a predominant theme for an extended period. To add context, investors have been nervous about Iran's potential retaliation against Israel following the bombing of its embassy in Syria. Such action could escalate tensions in the region and spill over into a wider conflict.
DEEPER LOOK INTO CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS
There are several other reasons that could explain why gold has done so well this year. Here are some possible explanations for its ascent:
The Momentum Trap: Gold's relentless rise could be fueled by a self-fulfilling speculative frenzy. This trend-following behavior can create vertical rallies that are often unsustainable over the long term. Should this dynamic be at play right now, a sharp downward correction could unfold once sentiment shifts and valuations reset.
Hard landing: Some market participants may be hedging an economic downturn caused by the aggressive monetary policy tightening from 2022-2023 and the fact that policymakers could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to stalling progress on disinflation.
Inflation comeback: Gold bulls could be taking a strategic long-term approach, betting that the Fed will cut rates no matter what as insurance policy to prevent adverse developments in an election year. Cutting rates while consumer prices remain well above the 2% target risks triggering a new inflationary wave that would ultimately benefit precious metals.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold has rallied this week, setting a new all-time high near $2,430. However, the price eventually fell to that level and closed at $2,344 on Friday. If the reversal persists in the coming trading sessions, support will emerge at $2,305, followed by $2,267. With further weakness, all eyes will be on $2,225.
On the other hand, if they rotate higher and rally again, the record high of $2,430 will be the first line of defense against further advances. With the market stretched and in overbought territory, gold may struggle to overcome this barrier, but in the event of a breakout, we could see gold prices move towards $2,500.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows.
Support: 2,319 – 2,267 - 2,225USD
Resistance: 2,365 - 2,430USD
