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EURUSD stabilizes ahead of press conferenceOANDA:EURUSD , CHARTS AND ANALYSIS - ECB edges further towards a June rate cut. - Will President Lagarde begin signaling further rate cuts? The ECB maintained its policy levers unchanged, as expected. However, they stated that if their assessment of inflation and monetary policy transmission improves, they may consider reducing current restrictions. This follows their previous mention of June as a potential meeting for a policy decision, increasing the likelihood of a cut on June 6th. Financial markets continue to price in a 25 basis point at the June meeting and have recently increased the probability of an additional cut at the July 18th meeting. It may well be that the ECB cuts twice before the Fed makes its first move. OANDA:EURUSD fell sharply yesterday, due to post-CPI US dollar strength, leaving the Euro as the next driver of any move. Initial support is seen around 1.0698, a double-low made in early February, before the 1.0635 – May 31st swing-low – and 1.0610 – Fibonacci retracement – come into play.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices. The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates. March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices. 📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level. Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly. The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest FX:XAUUSD is trading exclusively in a bull market. Quick and temporary reactions to the news are quickly exhausted and buyers regain the upper hand on the metal's price. Yesterday the price made another retest of the support at 2330, which has the status of an intermediate bottom. This area held the price and after that the market returned to its true direction. On the background of activity of dynamic buyers the price tests 2390 and forms correction to the support. From 2365 the continuation of growth within the uptrend is also expected. Today from the news only the speech of the head of the Fed at 17:15 GMT. Support levels: 2365, 2330 Resistance levels: 2390, 2400 Technically, a retest of the support is forming on the background of the uptrend. The 2365 area plays an important role, as the market earlier emphasized the presence of this area. A false breakdown before further growth is possible. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD → The price is not falling on the US news. Target 2450?FX:XAUUSD is showing strength as a hedge asset. The price continues to indicate to us that it intends to go even higher. The market is cleaned up after the shakeout and the big player continues to play his game. (Idea from Apr.16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest) Bulls form another intermediate bottom at 2365, building a limit support area. The price bounces and strengthens almost to 2400. Gold shows itself as a safe asset and finds interest from investors. On H1, the price breaks local resistance and heads towards 2400. At the moment, the market's target is to break 2400 and reach the liquidity area of 2431. Resistance levels: 2431, 2400 Support levels: 2371, MA-50, 2365 Technically, this is a strong bull market. It is worth looking for strong support areas to buy or strong resistance areas to trade on a breakout. Potential target is 2400, 2430, 2450. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
GOLD reversed sharply from record peakThe gold market heated up last week due to increasing geopolitical tensions. Israel is preparing for a potential attack from Iran, while Iran has vowed to seek revenge on Israel following an attack on their consulate in Damascus. This news is expected to drive safe-haven gold buying over the weekend. The US Department of Labor's report states that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in March 2024, which is lower than economists' predicted 0.3% increase. Investors are acknowledging the potential for prolonged inflation and expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a patient approach to monetary policy. After rising to 2,431 USD/ounce, the highest price in history, gold encountered profit-taking pressure, causing the price of this precious metal to decline sharply. While gold failed to hold above $2,400 an ounce, analysts noted that it remains strong as it prepares to set another weekly record. The new record comes even as markets begin to assess the possibility of an interest rate cut in June after March inflation was higher than expected.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: Overbought but still bullish above the 4H MA100.Gold is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.650, MACD = 67.600, ADX = 69.434) and appears to be unphazed by the recent rejection at the top of the Channel Up that pulled back to the 4H MA50. This is basically a consolidation that can be evolved to a similar pattern with March's. It was the 4H MA100 that held it on an uptrend at the time and has been holding since February 23rd. We remain bullish as long as it continues to hold, targeting the top of the Channel on a +10.54% increase (TP = 2,550). If the 4H MA100 is crossed, we will go short aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 2,220). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Gold might be in a late stage of the rallyGold saw a pullback of nearly $100 from a high of $2,431, followed by a slight rebound, dragging the price to $2,370 per troy ounce. This increasing volatility begs the question of the market’s state. To address this, we would like to note that the rising volume has been accompanying the increasing price, which is positive (and, indeed, quite impressive, considering how much gold has run up in the past year). In addition to that, silver and some of the mining stocks within the precious metals sector began to catch up with gold recently, which could indicate the shiny metal is entering a late stage of the rally. With that said, we think there is still a significant chance for gold to run higher (likely beyond $2,500). But then, we are also well aware that certain market developments (if they play out) might hold gold down for much longer (including the stock market downturn, steady or higher interest rates for longer, etc.). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Green arrows highlight a simultaneous rise in the price and volume. Illustration 1.02 The weekly graph of XAUUSD depicts two multi-year resistance levels from the past, which now act as critical support levels. Following a breakout above the first level in June 2019, gold rallied nearly 51% before forming another wall of resistance at $2,075. This level was first time broken (temporarily) in late 2023 and then again in late February 2024 (now with the price staying above it); when measuring from the second breakout level at $2,075 until the recent peak of $2,431, gold rallied slightly more than 17%, potentially leaving some more upside left (though, unlikely another 30% without a significant pullback to the base). Illustration 1.03 The daily chart of XAUUSD above shows alternative support levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
US CPI data could put GOLD into accumulationAfter the US announced March inflation data, OANDA:XAUUSD is on the defensive. The data showed an increase in both monthly and yearly readings and could weaken the Fed's intention to ease policy. The data provided some resistance to the precious metal after its recent run of heat. The US consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% monthly and 3.5% annually, exceeding expectations and recovering from the previous month. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, also exceeded expectations, holding steady at 0.4% month-on-month and increasing 3.8% year-over-year, in line with consistent with February data. Strong CPI data forced traders to reduce bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In general, the Fed's sustained high interest rates will put downward pressure on prices for non-yielding assets such as gold because it increases the cost of investing in these assets. Still, gold has remained an anomaly over the past few weeks, with demand remaining strong even as traders bet big on the prospect of interest rate cuts at the Reserve's June and July meetings. Federal. Gold has remained in focus over the past few weeks as tensions in the Middle East escalated again, underpinning safe-haven buying and pent-up demand for the precious metal from global central banks. Central banks are hoarding gold to prevent a possible economic recession. Overall, gold still has a lot of fundamental room to support price increases but with the newly released CPI data it will be held back a bit without changing the main market trend. As told to readers through short comments during the day, CPI data can create short-term downward adjustments without changing the trend, so short positions are opened in search of profits. Expecting a downward adjustment should also be kept at short-term levels. Almost the current market is just waiting for a drop to buy, there is too much geopolitical instability growing. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still maintaining stability with short, medium and long-term trends being bullish and after yesterday's slight correction, gold moved above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, causing a decline. greater chance of downward adjustment. On the prospect of a downside correction, gold would have more technical room to fall further towards the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension if it is sold below $2,331, also This means that the level of 2,331USD is the closest support currently. Meanwhile, the notable resistance levels at $2,355 – $2,365 will be important technical levels as once they are broken gold is likely to continue making new all-time highs with a target level. Then at 2,382USD the price point of the Fibonacci extension is 1%. During the day, with the newly published CPI data, gold is likely to have a downward correction and enter accumulation with the main uptrend remaining unchanged. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,331 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,358 – 2,365 - 2,375USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Data muted, GOLD rises as Middle East tensions escalateUS producer price data had little impact on expectations of a US interest rate cut this year, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and continued geopolitical concerns also increased appeal. Leading the way in OANDA:XAUUSD , gold became strong and hit another all-time record. US PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year in March, less than expected. Annual core PPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, beating expectations and beating expectations of 2.3% and a 2% gain in February. Weekly initial jobless claims improved to 211,000, below expectations of 215,000 and down from 222,000 previously. Top US and Israeli generals discuss escalating war and warn embassies to limit travel The Middle East is currently on high alert, wary of Iran's threat to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel. In early April, the consulate building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria was attacked, killing 16 people, including two high-ranking Iranian generals. Iran blamed the attack on Israel and vowed revenge. American officials are helping Israel plan and share intelligence assessments. Israel's Western allies have been informed that Israeli military and government facilities may be attacked, but civilian facilities are not expected to be targeted. Israeli officials also told their allies they were waiting for an attack before launching a ground attack on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. US and Israeli intelligence officials say it is only a matter of time before Iran retaliates, an attack could occur in the next few days and Iran could use precision guided missiles. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday that Israel "must and will be punished" as US President Joe Biden reiterated his "ironclad" support for the key regional ally mine. Additionally, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held discussions with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday. “A direct attack by Iran would require an appropriate response from Israel toward Iran,” Galante told the US Secretary of Defense. The Israeli Defense Ministry said the two officials "discussed Iran's preparations to attack Israel", with Galante stressing that "Israel will not tolerate Iranian attacks on its territory". The White House also said the US had informed Iran that it was not involved in the airstrike targeting a senior Iranian military commander in Damascus. The US has warned its embassy staff to limit travel after Iran threatened Israel. (According to NewsX) Nearly all macro data did not impact strong central bank buying, safe-haven capital flows amid persistent geopolitical risks and demand from funds have been the driving force behind prices. OANDA:XAUUSD increased 14% from the beginning of the year until now. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to set new highs during the Asian trading session and shows no signs of stopping and no notable resistance levels left to expect a significant downward correction. All technical indicators are supporting gold prices to continue to increase, while the nearest resistance level may be the upper edge of the price channel and if this price channel continues to be broken, gold could reach the original price of 2,400 USD. and will watch the Sell resistance at 2,410 USD according to Fibo extension. In a bearish case, gold needs to take price action below the $2,382 technical price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension and then the expected correction target at $2,365, more than $2,331. It is very difficult to make any decisions in the current context when open buying positions face the risk of downward adjustment due to a long period of hot growth. Meanwhile, open sell positions cannot find any resistance positions ahead as a basis for setting protection levels. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2410 - 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → A retest of bullish trend support. What to expect? FX:XAUUSD reaches the 2400 mark on Friday before facing a profit-taking. There is a possibility that traders closed positions before the strong news that occurred from Saturday to Sunday. There is no correlation with the dollar now, which makes it easier for technical analysis. In fact, we have a strong bullish trend and strong support in the form of the 2325-2330 zone and an ascending channel line. From Saturday to Sunday there was the development of another geopolitical problem in the Middle East and it is related to the armed crisis between Iran and Israel, which in general can only affect the appreciation of the metal. Resistance levels: 2365, 2375 Support levels: 2335, 2330, 2325 In general, we should consider a retest of the trend support or 2330 and look at the price reaction to these levels. Most likely, the trend may continue. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?There is no doubt that Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Bull Cycle after last month's bullish break-out. Last week though it closed its 1W candle almost on a Doji which can potentially be a trend reversal, at least on the short-term. As you can see on this 1W chart, which displays the similarities between the previous Cycle and the current, such 1W candles have been on global market tops: May 01 2023, January 16 2023, March 07 2022 etc. If we are indeed at the phase past the Accumulation (Rectangle pattern) simular to February 2020, then we can expect a short-term correction. Of course the March 2020 price collapse that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) had solely to do with the COVID asset-wide crash. Still though, in February 2020, the market posted a red 1W candle that erased the gains of two weeks in a row. As a result, if the current week doesn't post a new High, we expect a pull-back towards at least 2250. Beyond that, in order to approach the 1W MA50 again, we need a fundamental catalyst. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD → Profit-taking and another war. Opening with a GAP?FX:XAUUSD updates another high to 2431.4 and then begins to shed heavily amid profit taking by traders. The weekend also proved to be fundamentally important for the markets, which may react strongly. Most of the nearly $100 drop is due to profit taking by traders as the price reaches psychological levels, but the drop to 2300-2350 allows to find new buyers at relatively cheap prices. From Saturday to Sunday the next and not unimportant armed conflict between Iran and Israel is developing, which in general can affect the prices of commodities and futures quite strongly. On H1 the price is declining to the trend support and is testing the liquidity area of 2330-2350. In all likelihood, the market may open with a gap on Monday amid the crisis in the Middle East. The area below 2328 may still remain protected and play an important role in price formation. Resistance levels: 2354, 2400, 2428 Support levels: 2328, 2303 Fundamentally everything is quite complicated and not stable, Gold still plays an important role as a hedge asset and interest in the metal is getting stronger, the growth from 2300-2350 is likely to continue COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
36
GOLD breaks records every day, big data and events are comingOANDA:XAUUSD continued to set new records yesterday, driven by buying momentum and geopolitical risks, while markets focused on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data. America to seek direction on the US interest rate cut timetable. Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes and US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released on Wednesday. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability, but higher interest rates tend to make holding this non-yielding asset less attractive. It seems like any news about the US is a reason to buy. Signs of a strong economy and tamed inflation, underscoring gold's store of value as a store of value. Weak inflation increases expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, which also makes the US dollar less attractive. According to a survey of economists, the US core CPI in March will increase by 0.3% over the same period last month, slightly lower than the increase of 0.4% in February; Meanwhile, overall CPI is expected to increase by 3.4%, higher than last month's 3.2%. If data shows a return to inflation, this will threaten market sentiment and could create downward pressure on gold prices and create a downward correction amid the recent hot rally. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the chart it is difficult to find a reasonable stop for expectations of a significant downward adjustment in gold prices when every day is a new all-time peak. In the short term, the fluctuation range at the lower edge near the 2340USD area is noted as the nearest support level and if gold can move below this level, it will have technical conditions to reduce the price more. Since the Relative Strength Index has been operating in the overbought area for a long time, if gold falls below $2,240, open positions with expectations of a downward adjustment will become more grounded. Currently, gold still has all the factors supporting a technical price increase with a short-term trend from the price channel, a medium and long-term uptrend from the EMA. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance level is at 2403 USD, the Fibonacci confluence extends 1.618%. This period is a very difficult period when gold has had a long period of hot growth without any clear adjustment rhythm. Following the uptrend can be risky when a downward adjustment occurs. More accurately, "I want to buy, but any position is only short-term and doesn't feel safe."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 08 - April 12]This week, international gold prices continued to increase sharply, from 2,228 USD/oz to 2,330 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,329 USD/oz. There are currently 3 main factors that are causing gold prices to increase sharply beyond expectations. There is the need to buy gold by central banks, the upcoming interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks around the world, and finally, extremely strong geopolitical tensions on many fronts. battles, including the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Of the three factors mentioned above, the biggest concern is the significant increase in geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East as Iran may retaliate against Israel for the country's suspicion of bombing the University of Israel. Iranian embassy in Syria. This has significantly increased the role of gold as a haven. In addition, the purchase of gold by central banks will also create long-term leverage on gold prices, especially when central banks of the BRICS bloc are stepping up gold purchases to ensure their own payment system. to avoid dependence on the US and the West. In addition, when central banks, especially the FED, begin the process of cutting their basic interest rates, gold prices will also gain momentum. Notably, the US labor market in March unexpectedly grew strongly, with non-farm employment figures (NFP) reaching 303,000 jobs, much higher than Reuters' forecast of about 200,000 jobs. This will give more motivation for the FED to cut interest rates for the first time next June after a long series of interest rate increases. From the beginning of 2024 until now, international gold prices have increased about 17% after surpassing the resistance mark of 2,000 USD/ounce in mid-February. Thus, compared to the above increases, international gold prices will remain There is plenty of room to increase further when the FED cuts interest rates this year. Notably, the strong increase in gold prices often takes place before the FED starts cutting interest rates. March CPI and PPI - important US inflation data, published next week may also have a strong impact on gold prices next week. According to forecasts, US CPI in March will increase by about 0.2%. If this data is as expected, or even increases below 0.3%, it will be positive news for gold prices next week, because this data will prompt the FED's plan to cut interest rates in June. to become more convincing. On the contrary, if March CPI increases to 0.4% or higher, it will be a matter of concern. This makes it possible for the FED to continue delaying its plan to cut interest rates, negatively impacting gold prices next week. 📌Technically, gold price has increased beyond the medium-term price increase channel on the weekly chart, which is a positive signal, showing that the gold price increase in the medium and long term will continue. However, the price has gone quite far from the moving averages, while the RSI... is already in the overbought zone. This poses a risk of profit taking for gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support levels for gold prices next week are at 2,250-2,200-2,100 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the 2,400 USD/oz area will be an important resistance zone. The trading plan for next week will consider the buying watch around 2250, the selling watch around the round resistance mark of 2400.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD approaches $2,356 again, geopolitics, CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD has corrected from all-time highs but still maintains a bullish trend. Gold prices are expected to reach additional record highs in the near future. Tensions in the Middle East pushed gold prices up sharply. Hamas official Ali Baraka said Hamas had rejected Israel's latest ceasefire proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a video statement on the evening of April 8, local time, saying: “If the Israeli army wants to completely defeat Hamas, it must enter Rafah, the southernmost point of the Strip Palestinian Gaza, and conduct significant activities, this will happen and will be announced in advance.” Netanyahu also said he had received a detailed report on the negotiations in Cairo and that Israel "is continuously working to achieve its goals, starting with the release of all detainees and winning complete victory over Hamas." Markets are also watching key US inflation data due out this week. Inflation data is expected to provide further guidance on the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap and could be the next driver for gold prices. The US consumer price index (CPI) for March will be released on Wednesday. According to a survey of economists, the US general CPI in March will increase by 0.3% over the previous month, slightly lower than 0.4% in February; US core CPI in March is expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Analysis of gold price prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected since approaching the 1% Fibonacci extension at $2,356, which readers noticed in the weekly edition, it has since taken support from area of ​​the 0.786% Fibonacci level and increased again to approach the $2,356 level once again. A position being tested many times means that the effectiveness of that technical position will no longer be much. However, at the present time, the level of 2,356USD still serves as the closest notable resistance level. The main trend of gold price remains unchanged with the main uptrend from all technical indicators. Expecting a downside correction should be targeted in the short term with the nearest support at the $2,311 – $2,300 area, while defending open positions expecting a downside correction should be placed behind the level. 2,356 USD. During the day, the technical outlook of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD In recent times, we (Traders) always have to be mentally ready to face major fluctuations in the market, it has become very normal for gold to move 1% to over 2% every working day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Testing 2400. Can the rally continue? FX:XAUUSD reaches our goal of 2400. The psychological level is tested, but 2400 does not mean expensive. The growth may continue as the potential and interest is still huge. From 2400 a correction to the nearest area of liquidity can be formed. The market needs to rest and accumulate a bit before breaking through 2400 to continue further upside as fundamentally, economically and geopolitically nothing has changed. High interest, inflation problems continue to warm the price to further strengthening. Before the growth the price may correct to 2383, 2375 or 2365, or consolidation between these levels, after which the price may return to retest 2400. Resistance levels: 2400, 2425 Support levels: 2383, 2375 Technically, we should wait for the continuation of growth after a small pullback. At the moment there are no reasons for a reversal or a strong fall. The fundamental background and general potential remains the same TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
7
GOLD → Fierce bulls continue to hold the price on the newsFX:XAUUSD is still holding very strong even amid strong news. The range of 2365 - 2328 is being formed. Buyers and sellers are fighting for the lower level. Today the market is waiting for PMI and Initial Jobless Claims. Yesterday we got a high CPI of 0.4% instead of 0.3% and an inflation rate of 3.5%, which is a generally unsatisfactory scenario for the market and against this background the dollar is strengthening strongly. Gold shook a bit, but the bulls continue to hold the price above 2328. It is not known how long they will last, as the next batch of important news is ahead. Gold may test the support as part of the correction, but on the background of high interest in gold as a hedge asset amid geopolitical and economic problems, theoretically, gold may continue its growth. Resistance levels: 2345, 2365, 2375 Support levels: 2328, 2303 At the moment the price is in a range. A breakdown of support may weaken the price a bit to 2300, but a breakdown of resistance may push the price up. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
$2,300 hit amid gold's steep riseShortly after the futures market opened, gold reached our long-time-awaited price target of $2,300 and established a new all-time high at $2,305 before retreating slightly lower. We continue to be bullish on gold in the long term and believe it can reach significantly higher price tags ($2,500 and higher) due to future rate cuts, sticky inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, despite our bullish beliefs, there are certain developments in the market to consider and watch out for. According to the World Gold Council's report earlier this year (and information from Metals Focus and ICE Benchmark Administration), gold total demand rose approximately 3% YoY in 2023. However, what is intriguing about this figure is that the majority of the mentioned sectors in the report experienced year-over-year declines in demand that same year, including electronics, dentistry, technology, jewelry fabrication, gold bars, central bank purchases, ETFs, and investment. In fact, only four sectors showed positive gains, with most of the demand coming from over-the-counter and other (recording a 753% rise YoY); the rest of the categories that gained include industrial demand, imitation coins, and jewelry consumption (these rises are notably smaller though). Now, with gold being up 26% merely in the past six months, the question stands as to whether there will be enough demand from over-the-counter (and other sectors, which seems unlikely) in the coming months as well because gold’s elevated price (perhaps coupled with slowing down economic activity in certain parts of the world) seems to be already taking some toll on the demand side. Besides that, while bullish and still leaving some room for the upside, multiple technical indicators on daily and weekly time frames show overbought conditions that should not be overlooked, especially with gold’s lengthy history of steep rises being shortly followed by volatile drops. Furthermore, as we outlined numerous times before, the stock market’s relentless rise and the growing odds of correction threaten gold’s performance with each step higher (in the case of a substantial correction or selloff in the stock market, gold will likely be negatively affected). Illustration 1.01 As gold’s price explores uncharted waters, volume continues to increase on the daily graph, which is positive; a declining volume and rising price would be questionable. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.03 The price and RSI show the divergence on the daily chart. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
GOLD → How will CPI affect gold? Growth, slowdown or correction?FX:XAUUSD continues to grow. Since the opening of the session the price has been testing 2350 but has not been able to update the maximum yet, having formed a correction to MA-50. CPI is ahead and the market stops and goes into a waiting mode. There is a huge imbalance in the market. The news can provoke strong sell-offs, provided that the price breaks through at least one zone of liquidity, for example 2338-2328, then the activation of orders will provoke a strong impulse to these areas. But, the news may also provoke the continuation of growth to 2400. Fundamentally, traders are waiting for the CPI to drop to 0.3% and this is a rather sharp decline amid the speeches of the Fed representatives. Technically, gold is still strongly bullish and continues to attract interest. Resistance levels: 2354, 2375, 2400 Support levels: 2328.4, 2303.7 Today all the attention is not on the technical component of the market, but on the fundamental one. Gold may react either by continuing its strong growth or by temporarily slowing down and going into a state of consolidation. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
13
GOLD increased sharply despite rising US bond yieldsThe week ahead presents many ‘high importance’ risk events ranging from US CPI data to central bank decisions in Canada, New Zealand and the European Union. The FOMC minutes of the March meeting will also provide more insight on Fed thinking, although, the trend of hotter US data may diminish the impact of what was discussed during the March meeting. TVC:DXY IN FOCUS AHEAD OF CPI DATA, NFP BOOST PROVED SHORT-LIVED Friday’s hotter-than-expected jobs data for March initially sent the dollar higher but the catalyst failed to hold into the close. US CPI data will definitely draw a huge focus from the market due to the stubborn PCE figures and generally robust US data that may delay rate cuts even further. THE RISK OF A BROADER CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST TRIGGERED OANDA:XAUUSD SAFE HAVEN PUSH Gold has gone from strength to strength despite rising US yields. The greenback (DXY) registered a minor decline last week but US 2-year and 10-year treasury yields rose for the week. The prospect of rates remaining on hold for longer, has the potential to see more hawkish repricing for treasuries that increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing commodity. Recent escalations in eastern Europe and the Middle East raise the allure of gold due to its safe haven properties but the market has returned to massively overbought territory, hinting at a potential cooling off period at the start of the week in the absence of further escalation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading